feasibility appraisal of an offshore wind farm located in greece

144 Pages·2017·4.35 MB·English

by  Χρήστης των Windows

MASTER PROGRAM ON BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
THESIS
«FEASIBILITY APPRAISAL OF AN OFFSHORE WIND FARM
LOCATED IN GREECE»
AUTHOR: PANAGIOTA SOURSOU
SUPERVISOR: Prof. DIMITRIOS GEORGAKELLOS
CANDIDATE NUMBER: MDE 1530
Acknowledgments
I would like to dedicate my master thesis to my beloved grandmother, Panagiota
Seferli-Tzivelopoulou, who passed away three months ago. She has supported and
encouraged me with her love through the best and worst years of my life.
I would also like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Prof
D.A.Georgakellos who has supported me with his knowledge and experience to
realize this thesis.
Special thanks to MrP.Pallamidas, Mr.S.Psomas and Mrs.A.Bilali.
Finally, I would like to give a special mention to my family for their real support and
love during my studies.
Copyright Declaration
Abstract
The scope of this thesis is the realization of feasibility report about an installation of
an offshore wind farm in the North Aegean Sea. This thesis illustrates what exactly
contains a real market feasibility report, in order to convince the investors for the
sustainability of an investment and the opportunity of gain profits. The next pages
contain a brief presentation for the wind energy and technology inviting the reader to
enter the terminology and the technology of wind farms. Apart from the literature
review, there is a deep analysis of the wind industry, legislation, trends and a detailed
analysis of the installation. The last chapter contains the financial analysis and
deductions to defend or not the investment. For the convenience of the reader an
executive summary is also provided.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction ……………………………………………………………1
1.1. Aim of Project
1.2. Approach and Investigation
1.3. Executive Summary
1.4. History of Wind Power
1.5. The basics of Wind Energy at a glance
1.5.1. What is Wind Power?
1.5.2. What is a Wind Turbine?
1.5.3. Types of Wind Turbines
1.5.4. Sizes of Wind Turbines
1.5.5. The three major types of Wind Power
1.5.6. How Wind Turbines work
1.5.7. Windmills vs. Wind Turbines
1.5.8. What is a Wind Farm?
1.5.9. How Wind Energy gets to you
1.5.10. Benefits of Wind Energy
1.5.11. What is Wind Industry?
1.6. How Wind Energy works?
1.6.1. Generating Electricity
2. Literature Review …………………………………………………………6
2.1. Deep Water Offshore Wind Technologies
2.2. Deep Water-The next step for Offshore Wind Energy
2.3. EIA Guide to Offshore Wind Farms
3. Background Information Offshore Wind Farms …………………………..9
3.1. Development of Wind Power
3.2. Large Wind Farm development
3.3. Offshore Wind Farm development
3.4. Overview of Offshore Wind Farms in Northern Europe
3.5. Overview of Offshore Wind Farms in Major Continents
3.6. Economics and Terminology of Offshore Wind Farms
3.7. Roles involved in Offshore Wind Farms
3.7.1. Stakeholders
3.7.2. Regulators
3.7.3. Investors of the Wind Farm Project
3.7.4. Certifiers and Insurers
3.7.5. Developers
3.7.6. First Party Equipment Managers
3.7.7. Asset Managers and Operators
3.7.8. Maintainers/Field Engineers
4. Selection, Design and Construction Process of Offshore Wind Farm …….16
4.1. Design Process
4.1.1. Wind Turbine Design: Basic Load Considerations
4.1.2. Extreme Loads (Forces)
4.1.3. Fatigue Loads (Forces)
4.1.4. Structural Dynamics: An Example
4.2. Site Selection
4.3. Farm Layout
4.4. Turbine Components
4.5. Turbine Operation
4.6. Wind Turbine Foundation Requirement and Dynamics
5. General Information for Environment, Safety & Health ………………….22
5.1. Environmental Impact Assessment-EIA
5.1.1. Applicability
5.2. Environment
5.2.1. Landscape, Seascape and Visual Impacts
5.3. Noise
5.3.1. Construction Noise
5.3.2. Operational Noise
5.3.3. Noise Mitigation Measures
5.4. Biodiversity
5.5. Pre-construction assessments
5.6. Mitigation
5.6.1. Mitigation Measures (Onshore)
5.6.2. Mitigation Measures (Offshore)
5.7. Shadow Flicker
5.8. Water Qualify
5.8.1. Onshore
5.8.2. Offshore
6. Useful Physics of Wind Technology …………………………………………30
6.1. Where does Wind Energy come from?
6.2. Temperature Differences Drive Air Circulation
6.3. The Coriolis Force
6.4. The Energy in the Wind: Air Density and Rotor Area
6.5. Density of Air
6.6. Rotor Area
6.7. Wind Turbines deflect the Wind
6.8. The Stream Tube
6.9. What happens farther Downstream?
6.10. Why not a Cylindrical Stream Tube?
6.11. Wind Speed Measurement: Anemometers
6.12. Quality Anemometers are a Necessity for Wind Energy Measurement
6.13. Wind Speed Measurement in Practice
6.14. Which Tower?
6.15. Data Logging
6.16. Arctic Conditions
6.17. 10 Minute Averages
6.18. The Wind Rose
6.19. Wind Roses Vary
6.20. How to use the Wind Rose
7. Occupational Health and Safety ……………………………………………..35
7.1. Working at Height and Protection from Falling Objects
7.2. Working over Water
7.3. Working in Remote Locations
7.4. Lifting Operations
7.5. Community Health and Safety
7.6. Blade/Ice Throw
7.7. Aviation
7.7.1. Aircraft Safety
7.8. Marine Navigation and Safety
7.8.1. Marine Safety
7.9. Electromagnetic Interference
7.10. Telecommunication Systems
7.11. Television
7.12. Public Access
7.13. Abnormal Load Transportation
7.14. Grid Connection
7.15. Pitfalls in using Meteorology Data
8. Wind Turbines: Horizontal or vertical Axis Machines? ………………………42
8.1. Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines
8.2. Vertical Axis Wind Turbines
8.3. Upwind Machines
8.4. Downwind Machines
9. Offshore Wind Conditions ……………………………………………………..43
9.1. Wind Conditions at Sea
9.2. Low Wind Shear Means Lower Hub Height
9.3. Low Temperature Intensity=Longer Lifetime for Turbines
9.4. Wind Shade Conditions at Sea
10. Analysis of the big players of the Industry ……………………………………..45
10.1. Vestas
10.2. Enercon
10.3. Siemens Wind Power
11. Wind turbine manufacturing Industry‟s position in Industry‟s life cycle ………47
11.1. Core competences
12. Wind Energy Sources International Trends ………………………….…………49
12.1. Electricity from Wind
13. Global Renewable Sources of Energy …………………………………………..51
14. Digital Wind Farms- The Evolution of Technology …………………………… 56
15. Offshore Wind Power ……………………………………………………..…….58
16. The Offshore Wind Farm of the Thesis ………………………………………....60
16.1. Components
16.1.1. Meteorological Systems
16.1.2. Support System
16.1.3. Foundation
16.1.4. Monopiles
16.1.5. Tripods
16.1.6. Jackets
16.2. Jacket or Lattice Structures
16.2.1. Installation
16.2.2. Pre-pilling
16.2.3. Post-pilling
16.3. Beatrice Demonstrator Project
16.4. Concrete Structures
16.5. Floating Structures
16.6. Transition Piece
16.7. Scour Protection
17. Wind Turbine Interconnection …………………………………………………67
17.1. Electricity Collection and Transmission
17.2. Inner-Array Cable
17.3. Export Cable
17.4. Offshore Substation
17.5. Commissioning
18. Choosing the Suitable Wind Turbine ………………………………………….70
18.1. Market Searching
19. Overview of Legislation ……………………………………………………….74
20. Investing in the Greek Wind Power Sector ……………………………………75
21. The Hellenic Wind Energy Association Joins GWEC ………………………...76
22. Greek PPC Renewables interested building 12 Wind Farms on Islands ………76
23. EIB approved a loan for three new Wind Farms in Greece ……………………77
24. Pavlidis Marble-Granite invested EUR 70 million Greek Wind Farms ……….77
25. Sustainability Assurance ……………………………………………………….77
26. Looking Ahead ……………………………………………………………… 78
27. Market Analysis of the Offshore Industry …………………………………… 79
27.1. Long-term Energy Market Perspective-2050
27.2. Mid-term Wind Turbines Market Perspective-2020
27.3. Competitors
28. Choosing the location: Methodology …………………………………………..83
29. The Morphology of Greece …………………………………………………….83
30. North Aegean …………………………………………………………………..84
31. Central Aegean ……………………………………………………………….. 85
32. South Aegean …………………………………………………………………..86
33. Ionian Sea …………………………………………………………………… 86
34. The Offshore Wind Farm of the Thesis ………………………………………. 87
35. Locating Offshore Wind Farm …………………………………………………87
36. The Grid System of Greece …………………………………………………….89
37. Power Yield ……………………………………………………………………89
38. Submarine Cables of the Offshore Wind Farm ………………………………..90
39. PEFLEX Protection Cable System for Wind ………………………………….90
40. Budgeting of an Offshore Wind Farm ………………………………………....91
41. Financial Analysis ……………………………………………………………..93
41.1. Literature Review
41.2. Financial Analysis Explanation
41.3. Investment Analysis
42. Performing Investment Analysis ………………………………………………95
42.1. Types of Investment Analysis
43. Three Sections of the Cash Flow Statement …………………………………...96
43.1. Cash Flows from Operating Activities
43.2. Cash Flows from Investing Activities
43.3. Cash Flow from Financing Activities
43.4. Cash Flow Statement Considerations
43.5. Payback Period
43.6. Net Present Value (NVP)
43.7. International Rate of Return (IRR)
44. Advantages and Disadvantages of each Method ………………………………99
44.1. Strengths
44.2. Weaknesses
44.3. Advantages of payback period
44.4. Disadvantages of payback period
45. NVP versus IRR ……………………………………………………………….100
46. Expenses of Installation ………………………………………………………..101
47. Annual Expenses ……………………………………………………………....102
48. Cash Flow Analysis ……………………………………………………………103
49. Sensitivity Analysis …………………………………………………………....106
50. Conclusions ………………………………………………………………….....107
51. Discussion ……………………………………………………………………...108
52. Recommendations and further work ……………………………………….......109
53. Appendices …………………………………………………………………......110
54. Risk Assessment (A) and (B) ………………………………………………......111
55. General Health and Safety Rules and Checklist ……………………………….112
55.1. Welfare Facilities
55.2. Hazards and Preventive Remedies / Measures for every stage of the
Project
56. References ……………………………………………………………………. 131
Abbreviations & Terminology
 MW Unit of measuring power. It is equal to one million Watts.
 GWUnit of measuring power. The Giga Watt is equal to one billion Watts.
 GWh Giga Watt Hour measurement of the consumption in one hour for
large scale plants.
 kWh kilo Watt Hour is a unit of measuring the consumption in one hour and
it is equal to one thousand watts in one hour.
 HVDC High Voltage Direct Current is the massive transmission of direct
current in large distances.
 kVkilo Volt is the measuring of Voltage and it is equal to one thousand
Volts.
 IRRInternal Rate of Return. This term is lengthy explained in second part.
 NPVNet Present Value. The terminology is included in second part.
 CAPEXCapital Expenditure. The term is extensively explained in second
part.
 EIA Environmental Impact Assessment.
 H&S Health and Safety.
 EPC Engineering Procurement & Constructions. The Contractor is
responsible for all the activities for the project
 O & M Operations & Maintenance are the activities to keep the Investment
in good condition through the time and unexpected conditions.
 EWEA European Wind Energy Association.
 EHS Environmental Health and Safety, mainly Guidelines.
 GIIP Good International Industry Practice.
 Payback Period  The time the investor needs to regain the initial capitals.
 Inflation rate Rising of rates-prices in a period of one year.
 Blue Economy Shifting from scarcity to abundance according to Pauli
Gunter.
Table of Figures
Front CoverDeep-Water Offshore Wind Plant in Scotland
1. Figure 1Same Offshore Wind Plant in Scotland …………………….
2. Figure 2Block Island Wind Farm …………………………………...
3. Figure 3Layout of a Typical Wind Plant ……………………………
4. Figure 4Main Components of an Offshore Wind Turbine ………….
5. Figure 5How Loud is a Wind Turbine ………………………………
6. Figure 6A Schematic of Shadow Flickering ………………………..
7. Figure 7Vessels and Offshore Wind Plant …………………………..
8. Figure 8Illustrating the Wind Turbine Concepts …………………….
9. Figure 9Schematic of Betz‟ Law …………………………………….