Fashion forecasting

231 Pages·2008·85.59 MB·English

by  Kathryn McKelvey

fashion
forecasting
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fashion
forecasting
Kathryn McKelvey
Reader
School of Design
Northumbria University
Janine Munslow
Head of Academic Group - Fashion
School of Design
Northumbria University
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This edition first published 2008
© 2008 by Kathryn McKelvey and Janine Munslow
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
McKelvey, Kathryn.
Fashion forecasting / Kathryn McKelvey, Janine Munslow.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-4051-4004-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Clothing trade--Forecasting. 2. Fashion--Fore-
casting. I. Munslow, Janine. II. Title.
TT497.M35 2008
746.9’20112--dc22
2008018021
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Typeset by Kathryn McKelvey and Janine Munslow
Printed in Singapore by Markono Print Media Pte Ltd
1 2008
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Kathryn McKelvey and Janine Munslow
are indebted to the following people
and companies for contributing to this
publication. Thanks to IN.D.EX, Sarah
McDonald and Future Foundation,
Melanie Marsh and Kai Chow at Here
& There and Mr Doneger, of Doneger
International, for permission to use the
Here & There material; Fiona
Jenvey CEO and Jo Little at Mudpie
Design Ltd; Joyce Thornton and Sue
A
Evans at WGSN; Christine Loyer and
colleagues in the studio at Carlin
c
International in Paris; Jaana Jätyri at
Trendstop; Lucy Hailey Business Partner k
of Peclers Paris; Jos and John Berry at
Concepts, Paris and Jennifer Kell at n
Concepts; Geoff and Anne at KM
Associates for their help; Studio o
Edelkoort; Lisa Fielenbach, Product
Manager at Mode Information; Klaus w
Vogel at WeAr Global Magazine; View
Publications particularly Martin
l
Bührmann; Ruth Capstick, graduate of
BA (Hons) Fashion Marketing; Emma e
Jefferies for her contribution to the
Design Process – Seeing. d
Thanks to all for their prompt responses
g
and permissions.
We would also like to thank Laura
e
Armstrong, Julie Mills, Judith Bull and
Sarah Kennedy for the use of their
m
textile designs; Kristen Pickering for her
help with the textile students;
e
Madeleine Metcalfe and Andrew Hallam,
at Wiley-Blackwell, for their support, n
patience and input on the book.
t
Kathryn would like to thank Janine
s
for her input. She would also like to
thank her family for their never ending
patience, lots of love to Ian, Emily, Lucy
and Jack.
Janine would like to offer her sincere
thanks to Kathryn and her friends and
colleagues at Northumbria University,
School of Design, for their support,
her family Hilda, Neil, Ben, and Laurie,
for their patience and Alex Rock and
Leonard Le Rolland, for their much
appreciated expertise and assistance.
prelims_updated.indd 5 8/7/08 11:01:33
>
viii 01 04
Preface Introduction Design Intelligence -
Brand
06 16 17
Design Intelligence - Design Intelligence - The Fashion
Futures Other Key Players Forecasting Industry
s
t
n 18 40 50
Here & There Mudpie Design Ltd WGSN
e
t
n
o
84
c 70 76 86
Carlin International Trendstop Peclers Paris
94 102 104
Concepts Paris Li Edelkoort Other Key Players
110 112 116
Fashion Forecasting - WeAr Global Magazine View Publications
Magazines
vi
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117 119 122
Textile View Magazine View2 Magazine Viewpoint & View
Colour Planner
123 124 136
The Process The Process - Colour The Process - Inspiration
c
o
142 148 150
n
The Process - Fabric The Process - Mood The Process - Seeing
Boards t
e
n
84
t
158 170 198 s
The Process - Case Study The Process - Case Study Communication - Type
Womenswear Menswear <
206 211 217
Communication - Layout Communication - End Note
» Application

@
?
218 219 222
Bibliography Contacts Index
vii
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This publication is designed to set out well established services that offer
the role of forecasting in the insight such as Carlin International and
contemporary fashion industry. The Peclers, Paris.
scope will be that of looking at lifestyle
trends, products and services. Each company has its own approach, but
Forecasting is a tool used by they all gather fashion intelligence from
designers, manufacturers, retailers, around the globe that is edited and sold
marketers, CEOs (Chief Executive to their clients via subscriptions to their
Officers) to give their brands creative services.
dynamism in an increasingly competitive
marketplace. The section also explains the flow of
information which happens across a
It is aimed at aspiring designers, number of months in the fashion
intermediate students and young calendar.
professionals who have some fashion
knowledge and skills and professional The next ‘process’ section sets out to
practitioners. The book takes the point describe how to develop intelligence for
of view of the student designer who a new season.
needs to interpret the intelligence, It begins by analysing the use of colour;
e provided by the industry, in order to be where inspiration may be derived; fabric
self-sufficient, directional and constantly inspiration and the relevant trade shows
c inspired. Illustrating not only how - which in turn offer their own
forecasting companies function - the forecasting information.
a
process - the future - but also how to
communicate trends using recent Information is available everywhere,
f
developments in illustration and but how can more sense be made of
e graphics. It is an industry where it and how can the designer get more
‘intelligence’ material is gathered, from a season? Part of this section
r analysed and communicated to deals with ‘seeing’ - the reading and
its clients as clearly, speedily and understanding of the visual. Exercises
p economically as possible. to analyse mood boards are included to
derive as much meaning and diversity as
A number of devices are used in this possible from a season’s intelligence.
communication, primarily traditional This information is provided by Emma
book publishing and the Internet. Each Jefferies. Emma is currently studying
medium has its merits, the Internet for a PhD in the ‘visual literacy’ subject
especially for speed of accessing the area.
latest fashion information straight As consumers become more visually
from the catwalk, the published book literate and markets more competitive
for its tactile and textural information this analysis offers another tool to the
qualities. Both approaches are essential would-be fashion forecaster.
for today’s designer. There are two sets of case studies in this
section, one on womenswear, the other
This book works in sections. The first on menswear and the differences in
section outlines trends and futures designing for each are explored.
companies, the second a number of
fashion forecasting services, those using The final section is about layouts for
traditional book publishing - Here & publication, using typography to
There; those appealing to a particular express mood and style and branding,
market, Mudpie Design Ltd (children and and offers examples of a student’s work
teenage) and Concepts Paris (lingerie); that illustrates some of these ideas
those that offer their service solely across a range of media.
online, WGSN and Trendstop; those
viii
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FORECASTING BACKGROUND the simplistic nature of the market, for
example ‘Milkmaid’, ‘Poacher’, ‘Safari’,
Fashion Forecasting has emerged as an ’Country Squire’ and ‘Folk Story’.
industry in line with mass production
and retail development and became a Colours were more simply divided
serious industry after the end of the into neutrals, midtones and darks and
Second World War. brights and less market segmented than
today. A random selection of modern
Changes to the fashion industry over theme titles reads ‘Fresh Revelations’,
recent history have been reflected in the ‘Allusions’, ‘Chameleon’ and ‘Filter’.
manner in which prediction information
is sourced, compiled and utilised. Over a period of time, wider ranging
products were encompassed,
There has been a shift from the 1960s sportswear, homeware and media
onwards in the dominance of single and telecommunications and even
fashion trends to a more pluralistic other design disciplines, such as
i
approach, mirroring the expansion transportation design.
n
of mass communication and in turn
the increasing sophistication of the The advent of the worldwide web
t
consumer. This has created a gradual revolutionised the industry and enabled
repositioning from a marketplace new Dot.Com companies to publish r
that was defined by both the designer forecasting material that reported on
level, influencing the middle and mass global trends in a fast and distinctive o
market, creating designs and trends manner. This required intelligence
d
that ‘trickle down’ to commercial high gatherers to be based in key cities
street product and the converse effect of across the world, reporting back any
u
street styles and subcultures inspiring new findings; often they would be
designers, to one which is focused on employed as freelancers or would be
c
the individual and fragmented into allied with the company’s agency in that
niche markets, where the consumer’s city. Many services employ illustrators t
aspiration is brand led and lifestyle and designers on a freelance basis also.
i
driven.
o
It is interesting to note that the web
During the post-war period, forecasting has changed the industry, but the tactile n
companies compiled stories and nature of the traditional forecasting
themes each season that were easier book has still retained a market share
to predict, as the market moved at a and is essential to the fashion industry.
slower pace. Prediction information was
compiled into books that could deliver The traditional book is often of limited
information that was both visual and edition, for example, approximately 500
tactile. Often there was an element of may be produced.
hand crafting in the production. These books often contain fabrics from
the most recent trade fairs, which have
Themes were also more predictable been purchased as sample lengths
and often fell into evolving stories that and hand swatched and pasted into
reflected the slower moving trends of the books. Or a combination of new
the time, for example, each season and vintage fabrics may be used in the
would see an update of classic stories, directional publications.
nautical, ethnic, purity, floral and
geometric.
Typical themes from this time reflected
01
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n
o
i
t
c
u
d
o
r
t
n
i
The theme above illustrates a menswear Despite there being less focus on
active sports theme forecasting trends technology, performance related
for Autumn/Winter 1996/97; this details and fabrication and the overall
information would have been compiled effect being less sophisticated and
in the spring of 1995. In examining under developed than contemporary
the detail it is interesting to note how information, the general silhouette
the information compares to more of these types of garments has only
contemporary stories. What is striking is changed marginally over the lifetime
how forward thinking this information of the trend to become the ubiquitous
appears given its age. basics of the youth market.
02
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