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land Article A Slipping Hold? Farm Dweller Precarity in South Africa’s Changing Agrarian Economy and Climate DonnaHornby1,*,AdrianNel2 ID,SamuelChademana3andNompiloKhanyile4 1 InstituteforPoverty,LandandAgrarianStudies,UniversityoftheWesternCape, 7535WesternCape,SouthAfrica 2 AdrianNel:UniversityofKwaZulu-Natal,Pietermaritzburg,3201KwaZulu-Natal,SouthAfrica; [email protected] 3 SamuelChademana:Groundwork,3201Pietermaritzburg,SouthAfrica;[email protected] 4 NompiloKhanyile:AssociationforRuralAdvancement,3201Pietermaritzburg,SouthAfrica; [email protected] * Correspondence:[email protected];Tel.:+27-072-538-1708 (cid:1)(cid:2)(cid:3)(cid:1)(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:6)(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:1) (cid:1)(cid:2)(cid:3)(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:6)(cid:7) Received:7February2018;Accepted:12March2018;Published:23March2018 Abstract: ThepaperinvestigateswhetherfarmdwellersintheKwaZulu-Natal(KZN)provinceof SouthAfricaaresubjecttoa“doubleexposure”: vulnerablebothtotheimpactsofpost-apartheid agrariandynamicsandtotherisksofclimatechange. Theevidenceisdrawnfroma2017survey that was undertaken by the Association for Rural Advancement (AFRA), which is a land rights Non-Governmental Organization (NGO), of 843 farm dweller households. Data on the current livingconditionsandlivelihoodswascollectedon15.3%ofthefarmdwellerpopulationinthearea. Thepaperdemonstratesthatfarmdwellersareafragmented,agriculturalprecariatsubjecttopush andpulldriversofmobilitythatleavethemwithaprecariousholdonruralfarmdwellings. Thekey provocationisthatweneedtobeattentivetowhethertheholdfarmdwellershaveoverlandand livelihoodsisslippingfurtherasaresultofinstabilityintheagrarianeconomy? Thisinstabilityarises fromagriculture’sarguablymaladaptiveresponsetotheintersectionofstructuralagrarianchange andclimateriskinpost-apartheidSouthAfrica. Whiletheoutcomeswillonlybeapparentintime, therisksarereal,andthepaperconcludeswithacallforagrarianpolicypathwaysthatarebothmore adaptiveandachievesocialjusticeobjectives. Keywords: agrariandynamics;climatechange;farmdwellers;livelihoods;precariat;vulnerability; SouthAfrica 1. Introduction WhatplaceisthereforfarmdwellersinSouthAfrica’schangingagrarianandclimatecontext? The uncertainty over this issue is what we intend to engage in this paper. Some things are more certain, however. ThreekeyfeaturesofSouthAfrica’sagrarianeconomy24yearsintodemocracy arethepersistenceofaraciallyskeweddistributionandstructureoflandownershipwithmostrural peoplelivingonstatelandundertraditionalauthoritiesandaccessinglandthrough(neo-)customary processes(Hornbyetal.,2017[1]);concentration,centralisation,andintegrationofagriculturalcapital creatingagloballycompetitivebuthighlycapitalintensiveandlaboursheddingagro-foodregime (Greenberg, 2015[2]); and, theongoingevictionsoffarmdwellersfromcommercialfarmsdespite tenurereformlaws,withtotalsexceedingevictionsfromadecadepriorto1994andgreaterthanthe numberofbeneficiariesoflandreformpolicies(Wegerifetal.,2005[3]). Thepoliticsoflandreformremaincontestedwhileconsensusonagrariansolutionsiselusive.AgriSA, thenationalagriculturalunionrepresentingcommercialfarmers,claimsthatthegovernment’stargetto Land2018,7,40;doi:10.3390/land7020040 www.mdpi.com/journal/land Land2018,7,40 2of25 redistribute30%ofwhiteownedfarmlandhasbeenachieved(AgriSA,2017[4]).However,methodological critiques (Hall and Cousins 2017 [5]) show that the real figure is closer to 8% (Aliber and Cousins 2013[6])andgrowingpopulistdemandsforlandexpropriationwithoutcompensationindicatewidespread discontentwiththelandownershipdistribution.Debatesonagrarianfuturesrevolvearoundthepossibility ofexpandingruralhouseholduseofsmallplotstogeneratefoodandincome(AliberandCousins2013, Hall,2009a[6,7]),whileothers(SenderandJohnstone2009,Hein,2011[8,9])suggestthatthedominanceof largescalefarmersandagro-foodconglomerates(or‘BigFood’)(Igumboretal.,2012[10])evisceratethe spaceforsmallfarmstrategies. O’Laughlinetal.[11]arguethat“Landreformcanthereforebeseenas simultaneouslybothcentralandmarginal(or‘necessarybutnotsufficient’)tomeetingSouthAfrica’scrisis ofemployment,livelihoodandsocialreproduction... ” ThisposesseriouschallengesforSouthAfrica’sattempttouseagrarianreformtoconfrontrising unemployment,persistentstructuralinequality,andgrowingpovertyandhunger1,particularlyfor farm dwellers, the focus of this paper. Moreover these challenges are exacerbated in the context ofemergingclimatechangerisks. Globalwarmingiswidelyacknowledgedasoneofthegreatest environmental, social, andeconomicthreatstosustainabledevelopmentintheworldthiscentury (AgrawalaandFrankhauser2008,Stern2008,UnitedNationsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimate Change(IPCC)2014,ZiervogelandTaylor2008,Anbumozhi2009,Kaijage2011,TurpieandVisser 2012 [12–18]). In South Africa, the mean annual temperatures have increased by at least 1.5 times theobservedglobalaverageof0.65◦Coverthepastfivedecadesandextremerainfalleventshave increased in frequency (Ziervogel 2014 [19]). Both the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and South Africa’s own localized and downscaled assessment models projectwarmingofabout3–6◦Cby2081–2100(IPCC2014,DepartmentofEnvironmentalAffairsand Tourism(DEAT)2004[14,20]). Despitetheparallels,thereisadisconnectintheliteraturewithagrarian politicaleconomiststendingtoneglectclimateasafactorofchange,whiletheclimatechangeliterature disregardshowthesechangeswillintersectwiththesocialdynamicsunderlyingagrarianchange. Yet, climatechangecoulddeepenandexacerbatepre-existinghistoricalandcurrentvulnerabilitiesofthe approximately2million(StatsSA2011[21])alreadyvulnerablefarmdwellersacrossthecountry. Thispaperthusinvestigatesthedegreetowhichfarmdwellers,theirlandtenureandlivelihoods aresubjecttoa“doubleexposure”(O’BrienandLeichenko2000[22]);vulnerabletotheimpactsof post-apartheidagrariandynamicsandchangewhiletheirland-basedlivelihoodsarevulnerableto climatechangeasarethecommercialfarmenterprisesonwhichtheirwagelabourandresidential rights depend. The study is innovative in providing extensive data on frequently neglected rural dwellers,namelythosewholiveoncommercialfarmsthattheydonotown,andindrawingattentionto theirdoubleexposuretoacombinationofagrarianandclimatechanges,thelivelihoodvulnerabilities thatarecreated,andtheparticularpoliticsthatthisgeneratesonfarms. The paper demonstrates that farm dwellers are a “fragmented” (Bernstein, 2010:110 [23]) agricultural “precariat” (Standing, 2011 [24]) that are subject to centrifugal (push) and centripetal (pull)driversofmobilitythatleavethemwithaprecariousholdonruralfarmdwellings. Thekey provocation of this paper is that we need to be attentive to whether the hold farm dwellers have over land and livelihoods is slipping further as a result of instability in the agrarian economy2? Thisinstability,wesuggest,arisesfromagriculture’sarguablymaladaptiveresponsetotheintersection ofstructuralandclimatechangeinpost-apartheidSouthAfrica. Whileoutcomeswillonlybeapparent intime,wesuggesttherisksarereal,andthepaperconcludeswithacallformoreresearch,andfor agrarianpolicypathwaysthatarebothmoreadaptiveandachievesocialjusticeobjectives. 1 Foodpricesin2016recordedthehighestlevelofinflationat11.6%(ProvinceofKwaZulu-Natal,2017: 14[25])while agriculturalproductionintheKwaZulu-Natalrecordedasixthconsecutivecontractionin2016duetoaseveremulti-year drought(ibid,20). 2 StatsSA (2016 [26]) records a 25.2% decline in “agricultural households” in KwaZulu-Natal between 2011 and 2016, thehighestrateofdeclinenationally,andfollowedbyNorthWestwith21.6%. Land2018,7,40 3of25 2. Capital,ClimateandtheAgriculturalPrecariat The contested discourse of a new geological era, in the form of the Anthropocene—in which anthropogenicclimatechangeisacknowledgedtohavefundamentallyalteredourclimatesystem (Clark2015,Morton2014[27,28])—providesanentrypointforanumberofissuesthatrepertinent to this paper; namely the interconnections between climate, capital and socio-ecological change. Moore 2017 [29] argues that there is a fundamental Human/Nature dualism at the centre of the Anthropocenediscourse,which“obscuresourvistasofpower,productionandprofitinthewebof life”. Instead of the Anthropocene discourse, which begins with Nature as analytically distinct to ahomogenousandabstractednotionofSociety,Moore,amongstothers(Klein2014[30])proposesthe Capitaloceneasawayforunderstandingtheconditionsforco-productionintheplanetary‘webof life’,andhowcapitalismhasrevolutionisedthe“co-productionofhistoricalnatures”(ibid: 599). Indirectlysubstantiatingthisargument,O’BrienandLeichenko2000[22]considerprocessesof globalisationtogetherwithclimatechangearguingthat“on-goingprocessesofeconomicglobalization aremodifyingorexacerbatingexistingvulnerabilitiestoclimatechange”(ibid,221). Mostdirectly, theconnectionbetweenhighlycapitalised, commercialagricultureandclimate changeisoneofcauseandeffect:ononeextremecommercialagriculturalsystemsareenergy-intensive andfossil-fuelbased,andthuscontributetogreenhousegasemissions. Estimatespositthatagriculture andthefoodsystemasawholeaccountsforbetween8.2%(TakleandHofstrand2008[31])to29% (Vermeulinetal.,2012[32])ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,thusfurtheracceleratingclimatechange (Hewitsonetal.,2005[33]). Moreover,somescholars(Weiss2013,VanDerPloegetal.,2015McMichael andSchneider2011andSchneiderandMcMichael2010[34–37])contendthattheshifttowardsahighly capitalised, mono-culture form of agriculture has constituted a form of maladaptation to ongoing climatechangeandassociatedshiftingagro-ecologicalconditions.Grainproduction(specificallymaize in Southern Africa and rice in Asia) faces particular adaptation threats due to sensitivity to small temperatureincreases(IAASTD,2009:287[38]),withsmallfarmersmostatrisk(ibid). Maladaptation, accordingtotheIPCC(2014[14]),is‘anadaptationthatdoesnotsucceedinreducingvulnerabilitybut increasesitinstead’.3 YetMoore’sargumentisfurthernuancedregardingaccumulationdynamics,wherehesituatesthe capitalistrevolutionintheco-productionofhistoricalnaturesinthefour“cheaps”ofNature—labour4, food,energy,andrawmaterials—thathavesustainedcapitalism’sexpansionandthatarenowdrawing toanend. Thelaunchofthegreenrevolutioninthe1960s,alongwiththeintensiveinvestmentthat accompaniedit,wasbasedontheextensivefarmingofmonoculturesandsupportedbyaboominthe agrochemicalsectorandfossilfuelbasedmechanization(Capra,2015[39]).Whilethenewtechnologies supportedanexponentialgrowthinagriculturalproductionandincreasedfoodsupplyforagrowing worldpopulation(Bernstein2010[23]),theassumptionswerethattheclimatewouldremainstable andbothfossilfuelsandwatersupplywouldalwaysbeabundantandaffordable(Capra2015[39]). However,themountingevidenceofclimatechangeandfoodpricevolatility(Holt-Giméneza&Altieri 2013,VanDerPloeg2013[40,41])haveshownthelimitsoftheseassumptions. Commercialagriculture isnowincreasinglyfacedwithprospectsofpeakfossilfuels,peakfertilizers(Pinock2010[42]),falling water tables in some regions, with risks of food shortages, increasing food prices, and increased socialinstability(Raleighetal.,2015[43]),aswellasglobalpoliticalpressurestocurbagriculture’s contributionstogreenhousegasemissions. Thespatiallyunevendistributionofclimatechangeeffects (O’BrienandandLeichenko2000[22])hasalreadyresultedinperiodicdeclinesincropsyieldsand failuresinsomeregions. 3 Thereisdebateaboutadaptationasausefulconcept,however.See,forinstance,AtteridgeandRemling(2018[44])who suggestthatadaptationisredistributingvulnerabilityratherthanreducingit. 4 Cheaplabour,accordingtoMoore2017[29],wasbasedonthedisconnectionofindigenouspopulationsfromthefoldof ‘civilized’people:whatEnglishcolonialadministratorsreferredtoasthe‘wild’IrishandtheCastilianscalledthe‘Naturales’ inreferencetoindigenousPeruvians. Land2018,7,40 4of25 Of interest with regards to ‘cheap’ labour in South Africa, the dynamics run somewhat contrarytoMoore’sassertionofscarcity,withincreasingprecarityforanoversuppliedlabourbase. O’Laughlin et al., 2013:6 [11]) argue that it was apparent in the 1970s “that the system of migrant labour[inSouthAfrica]haderodeditsownconditionsofexistence”. Thesubsistence‘subsidy’that householdfarmingintheapartheid‘Bantustans’hadprovidedtoagriculturalandminingwagelabour hadbeenundercutbyovercrowdingasaresultofforcedremovalsandconsequentdecliningfarm production. However,thisparticularcontradictioncreatedthebasisforthesubsequentemergenceof ‘surpluslabour’aspeoplecontinuedtomigrateoutofruralareasandtheneedforlabourinmining andmanufacturingdeclined. Asaresult,“cheaplabourwasnolongerscarceandsecuringitnolonger requiredsystematicstateintervention”(ibid). Furthermore,thegrowingsurplusoflabouroverthe past40yearshave“narrowedtherangeofemployment-basedentitlements,cutflowsofremittances betweenruralandurbanareas,andheightenedcompetitionforjobsandaccesstoservices”(ibid). Theeffectofthissurpluslabourboomalongsidethecapitalistrestructuringofagrariansocial relationshavebeenfarreachingforruralfarmdwellersandlabourers.EwertandDuToit2005:[45]use theideaofa“doubledivide”tocharacterisethechangesintheagrarianstructurethathavetakeplace overthepastfourdecades. Onthesideofcapitalarefarmers“abletoprofitfromtheopportunities offeredbyinternationalexpansionandthosewhoarenot”;and,onthesideoflabourisagrowinggap “between‘core’workersandthosethrownoutbycasualizationandexternalization”. Whilethereis noreferencetowhathappenstothedynamicsinternaltothedoubledivideinthecontextofclimate change,aneffectofthedoubledividehasbeenthegrowthofa“rurallumpenproleteriat,oftenresiding inrural,peri-urbanormetropolitanshantytowns”(ibid: 317). Perhaps more accurately, the position of farm dwellers in the face of these trajectories can be described as something of a rural agricultural precariat. Standing 2011 [24] argues that the fragmentationofthelabourmarketaccompanyingglobalisationhascreatedanewsocialclassofpeople whoare‘habituated’toprecariousnesscharacterisedasflexible,insecureandintermittentemployment as well as “uncertain access to housing and public resources”. While the idea that the ‘precariat’ constitutesaspecificsocialclasshasbeenthoroughlycritiquedfordisregardingthe(geographically varied)logicofclassdominationundercapitalism(seeBreman2013,Bernado2016,Munk2013[46–48]), further theorisation has linked employment precariousness (or ”wageless existence” for Denning, 2010 [49]; ‘footloose labour’ for Breman, 1996 [50]) to eroded conditions of social reproduction (Hart 2014, Bernstein 2004: 205–6, Bernstein 2003: 210 [51–53]). Tania Li (2010: 67 [54]), in her essay‘ToMakeLiveorLetDie’,arguesthatthedeepeningconditionofprecariousnessistheresult of a new round of enclosures, leading to the dispossession of large numbers of rural people from landcombinedwith“thelowabsorptionoftheirlabour, whichis‘surplus’totherequirementsof capital accumulation”. It is in this sense that we find the term ‘precariat’ a useful conceptual lens toengagewithchangingsocialrelationsonfarmsintheruralmidlandsofKwaZulu-Natal(KZN) province, to which we presently turn. Firstly, however, we set out the KZN context of capitalist agrariantransformationinSouthAfricaoverthepastdecades. 3. StudyMethod The evidence is drawn from a 2017 survey that was undertaken by the Association for Rural Advancement(AFRA),alandrightsNGOthatworkswithfarmdwellersintheUmgungundlovu DistrictoftheKwaZulu-Natal(KZN)province. TheUmgungundlovuDistrict,whichislocatedinthe midlandsareaofKwaZulu-Natal(thecountry’ssecondmostdenselypopulatedprovince),isoneof 11municipaldistrictsthatarelocatedontheeastcoastofSouthAfrica,inlandfromtheportcityof Durban. TheDistricthasapopulationofjustoveramillioninhabitants,61%ofwhomarelocatedin theMsunduziLocalMunicipalityinthevicinityofthecityofPietermaritzburg(StatsSA,2017[55]). The commercial farm areas are dominantly sugar, forestry and beef with some poultry and diary. Thefarmdwellerpopulationisestimatedtobejustunder41,000people. Land2018,7,40 5of25 The survey was undertaken as part of AFRA’s Pathways Project, whose objective is to find pathwaysforfarmdwellersoutofpoverty.5 Thepurposeofthesurveywasthree-fold: firstly,tocollect base-linedataonfarmdwellerhouseholdsinthedistrictinordertoupdateinformationontheliving andlivelihoodconditionsoffarmdwellersacrossthedistrict;secondly,toprovidedatathatcouldbe usedinlongitudinalstudiestoassesschangestothelivingandlivelihoodconditionsoffarmdwellers; and thirdly, to provide a GPS location of the interviewed farm dweller households and summary dataonrightstolandandservicesasarecordofevidencetobeusedtoadjudicateanyarisingfuture disputesoverrights. Surveys on farms in South Africa are not politically neutral processes of data collection. Theresearchwasplannedtobeundertakentogetherwithlandownersinasinglemunicipalarea, butafterlandownerstructuressubsequentlywithdrewtheirco-operation,AFRAchangedthescopeto asampleoffarmdwellerhouseholdsacrosstheDistrictinordertoensureaccesstoarepresentative sample.Theaccesstofarmdwellersthenhadtobenegotiatedthroughotherstructures,whichincluded electedcouncilors,communitydevelopmentworkers,andfarmdwellerstructures. Thismayhave createdsomebiasinthesampleinthatthefarmsmorelikelytobeknowntothesestructuresarethose wherefarmdwellershavereportedproblemsofsomekind,buttheseproblemsalsoconstitutethe rationaleforresearchingfarmdwellersinthefirstplace. Afurtherdimensionshapingthesamplewas thatsomelandownerspreventedtheresearchersfromaccessingfarmsandinonecasethreatenedto bringtrespassingcharges. Thesamplingmethodundertheseconditionswasessentiallyopportunisticandtherobustness of the data depended on the percentage of farm dweller households sampled.6 The survey was conductedwith843farmdwellerhouseholds,whichcollecteddataon6478individualmen,women, andchildren,livingon83farms,andthuscomprisesanestimated15.8%ofthefarmdwellerpopulation intheDistrict. Datawascollectedonbothindividuals7andhouseholds8,andanalysedaccordingly. Theinstrumentwaspilotedrepeatedlyandamendmentstotheinstrumentweremadeonthebasisof researchassistants’experienceofadministeringthesurvey. Thesurveywasloadedontoatablet,andinterviewswereundertakenbysixresearchassistants over a six month period, with a subsequent two months for checking and correcting errors.9 Dataanalysiswasundertakeninexcelandmadeavailableonalimitedaccesswebsiteasinformation wasbeingupdated. Cross-tabulationswererunacrossvariableswherepossiblerelationshipshad been identified through literature or through focus sessions with farm dwellers and AFRA field staff. Intermsofethics,AFRAwasconcernedthatthecollecteddatanotbeusedbylandownersor governmenttofurthererodelandandservicerightsoffarmdwellers. Thepermissionofrespondents tobeinterviewedwasthusobtainedineverycase,andtherespondentsassuredthatthedatalinked explicitlytotheirnameswouldnotbereleasedwithouttheirconsent. 5 Thepathwaysincludeanumberofstrategiesforsettlinglandrightsandtheprovidingmunicipalservicesandstate housingthroughmulti-stakeholderprocesses,includingwithlandowners,anddifferentspheresofmunicipal,provincial, andnationalgovernment(seehttps://afra.co.za/current-focus-areas/). 6 ThetotalnumberoffarmdwellerhouseholdsintheDistrictwascalculatedfromStatsSA(2013[56])datawhichshowed thatin20115.28%ofSouthAfrica’spopulationlivedindesignated“FarmAreas”,andofthispopulation,76.1%livedon commercialfarms(seeVisserandFerrer,2015:8[57]).Althoughthecensusdataisold,thereisnouptodatedatathatcan beusedtocalculatethefarmdwellerpopulation.AFRAthususedthesepercentagestocalculatethepopulationoffarm dwellerslivingoncommercialfarmsas:5.28/100×76.1/100×1,017,763,whichamountedto40,895individuals. 7 Datacollectedonindividualmembersofhouseholdincludededucationallevels,genderandage,permissiontobeonthe farm,residenceonthefarm,incomelevelsandsourcesofincome. 8 Thedatacollectedonhouseholdsincludedhouseholdcomposition,ageandgendercharacteristics,lengthoftimeresident onfarms,useoflandforlivestockproductionandcultivation,accesstobasicneedsandservices(specificallywater,energy, andhousing),successioninrelationtohousingandperceptionofrelationshiptofarmer,andwhetherthemunicipality providedservicestofarmdwellers. 9 Thecaptureddatawasuploadeddailyandverifiedandacceptedbytheresearchteamleadertwiceaweek. Errorsor missingdataweresentbacktoresearchassistantsonaweeklybasisduringdatacollection,andthenagainintheseventh andeighthmonthswhenpreliminaryanalysisanddatacleaningwerebeingundertaken. Land2018,7,40 6of25 4. StructuralChangeandLabourVulnerabilityinSouthAfrica’sAgrarianEconomy ThestructureofSouthAfrica’sagriculturaleconomyistheoutcomeofhistory,itspersistenteffectsinto thepresent,andofchangesoccuringinthedemocraticperiod(Ledger,2016[58]).Bernstein(1998:1[59]) statesthat“landandproduction,povertyandpower,arekeycoordinatesoftheterrainoftheagrarian questionandofprospectsofagrarianreform”inSouthAfrica.These“coordinates”areoftencharacterised asadualism10, withpoverty, overcrowding, andsubsistenceagricultureintheapartheid-constructed former‘Bantustans’existingalongsidethevast,highlycapitalised,mainlywhite-ownedcommercialfarms. Anoften-neglecteddualismisthepersistenceof“divisionsandstarkcontrastswithincommercialfarms... [which]exemplifythetwinprocessesofaccumulationandunderdevelopment,featuringextremepoverty (amongfarmworkersanddwellers)inthemidstofsubstantialagrarianwealthinlarge-scalecapitalist agriculture”(Halletal.,2013:48[60]). Beyonditsapartheidhistory,whataccountsforthesechanges? Answersarecomplex,andinclude policychangesintheearly1990sresultinginde-regulation(Marais2011: 124[9]),thedismantling of apartheid agricultural marketing boards and monopolies and the withdrawal of government subsidies(Hall2009b[61]),andthereductionoftariffsonagriculturalimportsthatexceededwith therequirementsin1994oftheGeneralAgreementonTradeandTariffs(GATT)(Ledger2016[58]). Nicholson(2001[62])showsthattariffsonagricultural,forestry,andfishingimportsweresetat41.2% buthadbeenreducedto2.2%by1998.ThechangesmeantthatSouthAfricanfarmerswere,overavery shortperiod,expectedtocompeteonglobalmarkets,andinthis“momentofglobalisation”(Bernstein 2003:203[53])weresubjectedtoconditionsofextremecompetitionandan“exportordie”(Andrade 2017[63])dynamic. Therewasaneedtoadheretoandpaythecostsforstringentqualityrequirements imposedbythesemarkets(Reardonetal.,2003[64]),withlittlesupportfromtheSouthAfricanstate anddespitecontinuedsubsidiesprovidedtofarmersinEuropeandtheUnitedStates(Visser,2016[65]). Thesenewconditionsanddisciplineshavemadeitdifficultforemergingsmallfarmerstogainasecure foothold(Ledger2016[58]). Capitalistagriculture’sresponsetothechangeshasvaried. Sectionsofagrariancapitalsupported and lobbied for the changes in the early 1990s in order to open up their access to global markets (Bernstein1996[66])resulting,amongstothers,inexpansionsofsugarmillingcorporatesandtheir commercialmodelsintoAfrica(Dubb2016[67])andforestrycorporatesintoEuropeandtheUnited States. Othersusedtheopportunitiestoassertlocalmarketdominance,withtherisein‘BigFood’ dominating the food and beverage sectors (Igumbor et al, 2012 [10]), the emerging dominance of asmallnumberofretailersandsupermarkets(Reardonetal.,2003[64]),thesqueezingoutofsmall growersfromtheagro-foodsystem(WeatherspoonandReardon2003[71],andincreasedexpenditure ofruralhouseholdsonfoodpurchases(D’HaeseandVanHuylenbroeck2005[72]). However,many agro-corporatesandcommercialfarmershavenotsurvivedthenew‘disciplines’ofcompetitionand havegoneoutofbusiness(Visser2016[65]),asisevidencedinthedecliningnumberoffarmingunits; inKZNthenumberofcommercialfarmunitsdeclinedrapidlyfrom6080in1993to3574unitsin2007. Accompanyingthisdeclineisthegrowthinthemeansizeoffarmsfrom668hain2003to808hain 2006(StatsSA2013: 6[56]). Genis(2015[73])summarisesresponsestochangesinconditionsforagriculturalproductionas follows. Firstly, an expansion and consolidation of production and landholdings, which resulted in increased concentration in agriculture. Secondly a large degree of centralisation, with vertical integration into up and downstream value chains. This is less apparent at farm level and most apparent in the agrochemical and seed sector (e.g., Monsanto, Bayer) although the concentration 10 Thenotionofadualismintheagriculturaleconomyishighlycontested,withsometheoristsarguingthattheunderdevelopment oftheperipheralformerTBVCstatesistheresultofcapitalistdevelopmentinthecentre(see,forinstance,DuToit2004[68]; Cousins2005[69];LegassickandWolpe,1976[70]).AsO’Laughlinetal(2010:5[11])putit:“thehighly‘dualistic’butunified economicstructurewasarticulatedwithanddependentonthebifurcatedcolonialpolity”. Land2018,7,40 7of25 at farm level is probably a response to centralisation beyond the farm-gate. Thirdly, increased labour productivity, through the systematic application of labour technologies in work processes andmechanization. Thesechangeshaveenabledshiftstosmaller,moreskilledfarmlabour,withlow skill or seasonal work being undertaken by contracted labour. This reorganisation of labour has particularpertinenceforthispaperbecauseitalsothreatenstosnaptheconnectionbetweenfarm labourandaccesstoland(Halletal.,2013[60]). Finally,increasedproductionefficiencythroughthe useofhigh-yieldingplantvarietiesandproductionpractices,e.g.,conservationagriculture,moisture conservation,andpruningpractices. KwaZulu-Natal KwaZulu-Natal’sagriculturalstructurereflectskeyfeaturesofthenationalstructures,specifically, raciallyskewedlandownership, adeclineincontributiontoGDP,andadeclineinthenumberof farmingunitswithanassociatedincreaseinthesizeoffarms;togetherwitharestructuringoflabour, whichhasincludedanoveralldeclineinjobsandashifttocontractandseasonalwork. In terms of its contemporary land dispensation and agrarian patterns, the KwaZulu-Natal AgriculturalUnion(KwaNalu)claimsthat46.29%oflandintheprovinceisblackowned,whileonly 15.6%iswhiteowned(withabout35.8%oftheprovince’slandownershipunknown)(DeLange2017; Groenewald2015[74,75]). Thesestatisticsincludenearlyhalfoftheprovince’slandthatisownedby theIngonyamaTrustBoard,whichisapublicentity. Todescribethetenureintheseareasasblack ownershipismisleadingandinaccurate. Bycontrast,theauditofstateownedlandundertakenbythe DepartmentofRuralDevelopmentandLandreform(2013: 9[76])suggeststhat50%oftheprovinceis stateowned,while46%isprivatelyowned,withonly4%unaccountedfor.Thereportdoesnotprovide a racial orurban/rural breakdown but does indicatea shift from individual privateownership to corporateownershipofruralland,andreflectssomeownershipchangesasaresultoftransferthrough landreform. However,accuratedataontheexactracialandclasscompositionoflandownershipin theprovinceandthemechanismsaccountingforchangesdonotexist. ThecontributionofagriculturetoKZN’sGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)hasdeclinedfrom4.4% in2004to2.1%in2014(TIPS2016:3[77]),thoughwithaslightincreaseto2.3%by2017(TIPS2017[78]). Despite this decline, agriculture is nevertheless more important to the provincial economy than agriculturegenerallyistothenationalGDP.Employmentinagricultureintheprovincehasfluctuated: 150,000jobsin2008,downtoa100,000in2011,andupto148,000in2015(ibid). The dominant agricultural commodities in KwaZulu-Natal are forestry, sugar, poultry and beef production. Forestryuses5.5%ofKZN’stotalland(exceededonlybyMpumalangaProvinceat6.3%). Althougharelativelylowuserrelativeto12.7%usedforarableproduction,58.3%forgrazing,and15.1% usedfornatureconservation(Godsmark2013[79]),forestryinKwaZulu-Natalmakesupasignificant proportion of the national forestry hectorage, expanding from 36.8% in 1979/80 to 39.9% in 2015/6. Whileforestry’scontributiontonationalagriculturalGDPhasrisenfromabout4to10%(althoughdeclining fromjustabovetobelow1%ofnationalGDP),itscontributiontomanufacturingGDPthroughprocessing hasdeclinedfromapproximately6to5%.Thisdrophasbeenassociatedwiththehalvingofemployment in the KZN wood and paper industry from approximately 34,000 jobs to 15,000 between 2010 and 2015,themostrapiddeclineinprovincialmanufacturingindustriesoverthisperiod(TIPS2016:4[77]). Thedrop-offinmanufacturingemploymentcouldbeexplainedbythediversificationandglobalisation strategiesoftheSAPPIandMONDIforestrycorporates,whileMondihasalsoshiftedtoalongerterm strategyofleasingratherthanowninglandsubjecttolandreform(SAPPI2016[80]). Sugaristheprovincessecondmostimportantagriculturalrevenueearnerafterforestry,generating R2,3blnin2007,followedbybroilers(R1,7bln)andbeeffarming(R1,4bln)(StatsSA2007: 11[81]). KwaZulu-Natal accounts for 90% of the country’s sugar production (Thornhill et al., 2009 [82]). TheDepartmentofAgriculture,ForestandFisheries(DAFF)(2016[83])reportsthat318,865ha(4.8%) ofagriculturallandintheprovinceisundersugarcaneplantations,adecreaseofabout24%fromthe 2006/07season,whichstoodat419,465ha(6.3%). Mostsugarintheprovinceisgrownunderdryland Land2018,7,40 8of25 conditions(SASA2017[84]),andhenceisvulnerabletoclimatevariability. Thesectorexperienced a decline in employment that was associated with a decline in output per hectare over the last twodecadesduetoacombinationoffactors,includingrisinginputprices,volatileglobalsugarprices, drought,anditsimpactonyieldsandqualityofproduction,thewithdrawalofstatesubsidiessince the1990s(EDTEA2017[85]),theperceivedrisksoflandreform(Cronje2015[86])andrisinglabour costs(Visser2016[65]). The poultry industry (which has a high concentration of broiler chicken production in the UmgungundlovuDistrictbetweenCatoRidgeandPietermaritzburg)tookalargeknockafteratrade disputesawEuropeangoodsfloodthemarket(MeyerandDavids2017[87]).Asthelargestagricultural sub-sectorinthecountry,poultrycontributes16.5%ofthegrossvalueofagriculturalproduction,andis thecheapestandmostconsumedanimalproteinsource(DAFF,2016[83];DavidsandMeyer2017[88]), whereasbeefcontributed11.9%andsugar3.2%ofthetotalvalueofagriculturalrevenuenationallyin 2015.KwaZulu-Natalhasthehighestpercentageofagriculturalhouseholdsthatwereengagedinpoultry production(27.5%)11andvegetableproduction(30.3%),whilethepercentageofagriculturalhouseholds thatwereengagedincattleproduction(24.5%)issecondtotheEasternCape(StatsSA,2013[56]). Intermsofclimaterisk,Thornhilletal.,(2009[82])notethatKwaZulu-Natalhasbeensubjectto extremeweatherepisodesatregularintervalsoverthelast100to150years,andwhiletherearedata gapsthatmakeitdifficulttoidentifytrendswithsurety,theseeventsarelikelyapartofacontinuum ofeventswhosefrequencyandseveritywillincreaseinthefuture. Theimpactsoftheseeventswillbe mademoreseverebythedegradationofnaturalabatementsystems,suchasfloodplains,wetlands, forested valleys, and coastal dunes. Discussion of further climate impacts are the subject for the penultimatesection,andwenowproceedtodiscussthesurveydataonfarmdwellersinKZN. 5. FarmDwellersinKZNasaRuralPrecariat Accordingtothe2011Census[21],3.7%ofSouthAfrica’spopulationlivesoncommercialfarmsthat theydonotown,andyetlittleisknownaboutthelivingconditionsoffarmdwellers.Farmdwellersare adistinctcategoryofruraldweller,andwhilethereareoverlapswithfarmworkers,tocollapsethem intoasinglesociologicalcategoryblursimportantdifferencesbetweenthem.Farmdwellersinthisstudy, followingAFRA’sdefinition(2017[89]),includefourcategories: wagedfarmworkerswhohavelong historiesoflivingonthefarmtogetherwiththeirfamilies;wagedfarmworkerswhohaverecentlycome toliveonthefarmwiththeirfamiliesandhavenohomeselsewhere;migrantfarmworkerswhohave homeselsewhere(ofteninothercountries)butvisittheminfrequently;andfinally,familieswithnobody workingonthefarm,butwhohavelivedmanygenerationsonthefarmandhavenohomeselsewhere.12 The 2017 AFRA survey of 838 farm dweller households13 living on 83 farms across the UmgungundlovuDistrictinKwaZulu-Natalfoundthatthemeansizeoffarmdwellerhouseholdsis 7.2members,with55.8%withsixormoremembers,asignificantlyhighernumberthanthe3.5members per household national mean (Wittenberg et al, 2017: 1299 [90]). 35% of household members are 11 Despitetheimportanceofpoultryproductiontotheprovince,noneofthefarmssurveyedintheAFRAdataproducedpoultry. Themajorityofinterviewstookplaceonfarmsproducingsugarcane(39%)followedbybeefcattle(23%)andforestryplantations (22%). 12 Thesecategoriesaredifferentfromlegalcategoriesthatincludefarmoccupiers(intermsoftheExtensionofSecurityofTenure Act62of1997)whohaverightsofoccupationlinkedtoemployment,farmworkers(intermsoftheAgriculturalSector,farm workers(BasicConditionsofEmploymentAct,75of1997andAgriculturalLabourAct66of1995)whomaynotberesidenton thefarm,andlabourtenants(LandReformLabourTenantsAct1996)whohaveaccesstolandforresidenceandfarmingin returnfortheprovisionoflabour. 13 Thedefinitionofhouseholdisanimportantsociologicalconceptasitiskeytomuchdemographicresearch. Thereare, however,anumberofdebateddefinitions(see,forinstance,Amoateng2007[91]).Inthispaper,wefollowthedefinition usedbyWittenbergetal.,(2017[90]),ofthehouseholdasbothasocialentity(asinfamily)andresidentialunit.Thesocial entityallowsinvestigationoffamilymemberswhoareabsentbutwhoconsidertheresidentialspacetobe‘home’,whilethe physicalresidenceisthesiteforservicedelivery,includinghousing,electricity,water,andsanitation.Theseaspectsoffarm dwellerexistenceareallcoveredintheAFRAsurvey. Land2018,7,40 9of25 youngerthan18years,52.1%arefemaleandtheremaindermale,withslightlymoremenbetweenthe agesof18–35(50.9%)thanwomenofthesameage. Farm dwellers secure incomes from multiple sources, including wage work on farms and off farms,socialgrants,remittancesandownenterprises. However,risingunemploymentandlabour casualisationonfarms(identifiedabove)combinedwithdecliningworkopportunitiesinruraland urbansecondaryandtertiarysectors,decliningaccesstolandforfarmingandhighnumberswithout accesstosocialgrantsmeansthatfarmdwellers,andparticularlyyoungmen,struggletosecurethe conditionsfortheirsocialreproduction. Thecombinationofthesefactorscreatetheconditionsforthe identifiedpolitics. Drawingfromthedataandsupportingliterature,thefollowingsub-sectionscover theprecarity,mobility,andpoliticsofholdingonrelatedtofarmdwellers. 5.1. Precarity Two-thirdsoffarmdwellers(66.5%)overtheageof18havenoincomeatall. Thismeansthatthey areunemployed,receivenosocialgrants,andareinvolvedinnoenterprisesoractivitiesthatgenerate income. Ofthosefarmdwellerhouseholdsinoursamplethatdohaveanincomefromwork,social grantsorownenterprisesorcombinationsthereof,therearesignificantdifferencesinmeanamounts, withaminimumofR014,amaximumofR95,840,themeaninthefirstquartileR2600,inthesecond quartileR4000,andinthethirdquartileR6600. Ashouseholdsizesaverage7.2members,thismeans thatmembersofhouseholdsinthefirstquartilehaveameanallocationofR361permemberpermonth, thoseinthesecondquartileameanallocationofR555permemberpermonthandthoseinthethird quartileR917permemberpermonth. Our data thus suggests that farm dwellers may be worse off than previously indicated.15 Furthermore, 75% of members in farm dweller households in our sample receive less than the upper-bound poverty line (of R992 per person per month) in 2015 prices (Stats SA, 2017 [55]). StatsSA(2017)reportsthat55.5%ofSouthAfricanswerepoorin2015,andthatthisrisingpovertyis concentratedamongchildren,blackAfricans,females,peoplelivingintheEasternCapeandLimpopo, andthosewithloweducationallevels. Ourdatashowsthat,byStatsSA’sdefinition,farmdwellersare oneofthepoorest,albeitsociallydifferentiated,socialcategoriesinthecountry,andthattheirpoverty levelsandtheinequalitiesmaybeobscuredinnationaldatasets. Thereasonforthispossiblyliesin nuancesrevealedbydistinctionsinthedatabetweenindividualandhouseholdincomes, primary incomesourcesandcombinedincomesourcesandtemporary,seasonal,andcontractemployment alongwithunemployment. Farmlabour(combiningpermanent,temporary,andseasonallabour)16constituteshalf(49.9%)of theprimaryincomesourcesofindividualfarmdwellersthathaveanincomewhenthosewhohaveno incomeareexcludedfromtheanalysis. Wagelabouristhusaveryimportantsourceofincome. Thisis notsignificantlydifferentfrom51.1%ofpermanentfarmlabourreportedinVisserandFerrer(2015: ii). However,thefiguredropsto38.9%whenlabour(ofunspecifiedduration)onlyonthefarmon whichthefarmdwellerisresidentistakenintoaccount,asopposedtoworkonanotherfarminthe 14 Thiswasfoundinthecaseoftwoelderlymenlivingalone,andwhoweresupportedwithfoodbyotherfarmdwellers. Theybothdiedduringthedatacollectionprocess. 15 AccordingtoVisserandFerrerdrawingmainlyonnationaldatabases(2015:10[57]), the2013workstatusofpeople living on farms showed 4.8% unemployed, 2.5% discouraged work seekers and 19.9% not economically active. Nationalunemploymentfigurescurrentlystandat27%whenonlyactivejobseekersarecountedandaround37%when discouragedworkseekersareincluded(StatsSA2017[55]). 16 Thesedistinctionsfluctuateovertime(Bhoratetal.,2014[92])whiletheextentofcasualisationisdifficulttogaugebecause researchersusedifferentdefinitionsoftemporary,includingblurringdifferencesbetweenseasonal,contractandregular work(Visser2016[65]).Ourdatacombinestemporaryandcontractworkunderstoodasintermittentworkwithshort-term contractsforspecificemployers.Seasonalandpermanentworkareseparatecategories,withseasonalimplyingshort-term butseasonallyregularworkoftenforaspecifictask(e.g., canecutting, planting, fellingandtransportationinforest plantations)andpermanentmeaningon-goingworkforthesameemployer,oneitherafulldaybasisorpartofaday. Land2018,7,40 10of25 area. Furthermore,ofthoseindividualfarmdwellerswhoseprimary17 incomeisfromfarmlabour, ourdatashows79.5%arepermanentworkers,followedbytemporaryorcontractworkers(18.9%) withveryfewpeoplestatingseasonalwork(1.6%)astheirprimaryincomesource18. Notwithstanding methodological and analytical differences in the studies, this is significantly less than the work of limitedorunspecifieddurationof48.9%,asreportedbyVisserandFerrer(2015:21[57])andHalletal., (2013:53[60]),andwhenfactoringinthosefarmdwellersovertheageof18whohavenoincomesat all,thenfull-timepermanentemploymentonthefarmonwhichtheyresideistheprimaryincome sourceforjustover10%offarmdwellers. Relatedly,incomesandtheirdifferentialsalsoappeartohaveabearingonhowfarmdwellers view their relationship with farmers (something that has a bearing on the ‘politics of holding on’ sectiontofollow). Wherethedistributionofthetotalprimaryincomeofhouseholdsisrelativelyequal, householdsaremorelikelytoranktherelationshipwiththefarmerasgood(seeTable1). Indeed, evenwhereahighpercentageofhouseholdincomesfallintothefourthquartileofhighestincomes, thisdistributiondoesnotimprovetherankingofrelationshipwiththefarmer. Table1.HouseholdPrimaryIncomeDistributionVRelationshiptoFarmer. Good Average Poor Quartile4 24.3% 32.6% 19.8% Quartile3 22.8% 20.1% 29.5% Quartile2 25.9% 26.4% 19.8% Quartile1 26.9% 20.8% 30.9% TotalnoHH 193 288 288 The worst relationship ranking is where most of the households fall into the first income quartile,andthisindicatesasignificant,simmeringpoliticsofdiscontentsurroundingfarmdweller precariousnessandfragmentation. Otherprimarysourcesofincomeforindividualfarmdwellers(excludingthoseinthesamplewho havenoincome)arechildgrantsandgovernmentoldagepensions(15.9%and13.4%respectively) andofffarmincome(13.8%). Whileprimaryincomesourcesrevealanimportantcomponentoffarm dwellerincomes,thediversificationandcombinationofincomesshowstheincreasingimportanceof multipleincomesourcestofarmdwellerlivelihoodstrategies(seealsoCousins(2013[94]). Morethan half of farm dweller households (60.6%) have more than one income source, in a range of 0 to 12, whileonly38.1%ofhouseholdshaveasingleincome. Themostfrequentlystatedsecondaryincome sourceischildgrants(15.3%),andthemostfrequentcombinationismainlypermanentfull-timefarm work as the primary income supported by child grants. Reversals are also apparent, for example, governmentoldagepensionstheprimaryincomesourcesupportedbypart-timeworkonthefarm. Othersecondaryincomesourcesincludeothersocialgrants(childfostergrants,disabilitygrants),own businesses,secondpart-timejobsinadditiontoaprimaryjob,andremittances. Whilework-social grantlivelihoodcombinationsmayavoidtheprecariousnessofintermittentcontractedwork,veryfew farmdwellerssecurethiscombinationoflivelihoodstrategyorthealternativeincomesourcefrom contractedandseasonalworkopportunities19. Wethussuggestthatdecliningpermanentemployment(inagricultureandindustry)andmodes oflabourcasualisationoffarmlabourthatexcludefarmdwellers,togetherwithunevenaccesstosocial 17 Primaryincomereferstotheincomethatgeneratesthehighestamountofcashinamonth. 18 Thisispossiblybecauselabourcontractors,whoincreasinglysupplyseasonalworkerstoforestryplantations(seeKhosa, 2000[93])andsugarcanefarms,donotemployfarmdwellersbutsecurelabourfromoff-farmlocations. 19 Withtheincreaseinlabourbrokers,labourcontractorsandsub-contractors(seeKhosa2000[93]fortheforestrysector),itis possiblethatfarmdwellersaresidelinedasasourceoflabourinpreferencetoothersourcesoflabour.However,thiswould requireinvestigation.

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Farm Dweller Precarity in South. Africa's Changing Agrarian Economy and Climate. Donna Hornby 1,*, Adrian Nel 2 ID , Samuel Chademana 3 and Nompilo Khanyile 4. 1. Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape,. 7535 Western Cape, South Africa. 2. Adrian Nel:
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