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falling behind This page intentionally left blank edited by francis fukuyama FALLING BEHIND Explaining the Development Gap Between Latin America and the United States 1 2008 1 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offi ces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2008 by Francis Fukuyama Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Brecha entre América Latina y Estados Unidos. English Falling behind : explaining the development gap between Latin America and the United States / edited by Francis Fukuyama. p. cm. Papers presented at an international seminar held in Buenos Aires, November 2005. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-536882-6 1. Latin America—Foreign economic relations—United States—Congresses. 2. United States—Foreign economic relations—Latin America—Congresses. I. Fukuyama, Francis. II. Title. HF1480.5.Z4U535 2008 338.98—dc22 2007050154 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Preface Literature tends to precede history and politics, to condense them, reveal them. Zavalita’s phrase in Mario Vargas Llosa’s famous novel, “At what precise moment had Peru fucked itself up?” has become the painful epigraph of life in Latin America.1 By ask- ing “when,” Vargas Llosa was also asking how much, how, for what pur- pose, due to whom, and why. The question searched for an explanation and, secretly, a light, an exit. The character lived in a feeble country, one that does exist. He lived in a country that took the wrong path, lost opportunities, lived on dreams, tolerated sharp inequalities, tore its social fabric, and suffered many times under tyranny. However, he also lived in a country that held then, and holds now, an invaluable histori- cal, artistic, and cultural treasure: its indigenous roots, those “subter- ranean rivers” to which José María Arguedas referred, and that miracle of mestizo convergence (communion) between the indigenous and the Spanish that is the unique essence of “The Inca,” Garcilaso de la Vega. Then came the tumultuous but promising nineteenth century, with its poorly digested if authentic liberalisms and positivisms, followed by an inexhaustible fl ow of isms in the twentieth century, some noble (like those of José Carlos Mariátegui) and some abominable (like Sendero Luminoso’s Maoism). Peru was and is a land emblematic of an unre- solved and perhaps insoluble tension between the deep presence of the past and the urgency of the inevitable future, a mythical paradise yet also an inferno for the conquistadores, a crucible and Babel of ethnicities and religions. Zavalita’s celebrated phrase reached far and wide, as Vargas Llosa’s mention of Peru referred not only to Peru; his readers in every corner of the complex and plural subcontinent called Latin America under- stood immediately that, when speaking of Peru, the narrator referred to all of them. When, exactly, had this region—joined together by a shared language, history, set of traditions, and culture, yet separated by political boundaries, countless disputes, geographical barriers, and random events—gone astray in its development path? Zavalita’s lament about Peru and Latin America implied a broader context. At the core of his question lay the shadow of another: why had this America (the one that José Martí proudly called “our A merica”) turned out so differently from the other America? After all, European presence in Latin America began a century earlier, allowing for the establishment of universities and printing presses, along with the emergence of rich cultural activity, as early as the sixteenth century. Furthermore, Latin America was—and is still today—endowed with seemingly inexhaustible natural resources. A region never lacking in illustrious and patriotic citizens, it achieved independence from Spain and Portugal nearly two centuries ago. Why then did this America fall into a premature decline while the other America fl ourished? This question, which also echoes the issue of destiny, has for more than a century perplexed those interested in the region, and will likely continue to bewilder others for generations to come. Intellectuals from both the Right and the Left have formulated this question through many different lenses, generally expressing the lowest of passions: rancor, resentment, envy. We are less fortunate because they have made us so: their success is rooted in our failure. They—the plunderers, the exploiters, the victimizers—are, in the eyes of many, the United States. And when blame is not squarely placed on the United States, usually a more devious interpretation is offered: rather than outright denial of the development gap, a complete reversal, substituting failure with success, is declared. The latter argument is in line with Rodó, Vasconcelos, and several armed and disarmed prophets of the dogmatic Left who have argued that they are not the victors, but rather we—the repositories of spiritual truths, which are “superior” to the rude desires that poison the “empire”—are the victors. But reality speaks for itself. This America, Latin America, can be immensely rich culturally, spiritually, and artistically, but it is plagued by economic and social problems. The other America, the United States, is the leading world power. Thus, the long-used, irrefutable term that characterizes the condition separating these two Americas, is one simple word: gap. vi Preface The trajectory that brought the United States to its privileged position in the world in the twenty-fi rst century is well known, yet it is impressive and worth outlining nonetheless. The United States contributes one-fi fth of the gross global product, and it generates 25 percent of the world’s industrial production. It is the largest food pro- ducer, and 5 of the top 12 industrial fi rms in the world are from the United States. The country’s petroleum-refi ning capacity is about 15 million barrels per day, and its coal reserves are practically inexhaust- ible. Other factors that help to make the United States the fi rst eco- nomic power of the planet include a multitude of large ports, an active railroad network spanning more than 172,000 miles, and a highway network of over 3.7 million miles. Its more than 14,000 commercial banks constitute the world’s most extensive and complex fi nancial sys- tem. Due to its impressively large internal market, U.S. exports, which represent 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, are less relevant to its economy than those of other developed countries, such as Japan or Germany, and the United States has maintained a trade defi cit of variable magnitude since 1976. The United States is also home to some of the most infl uential uni- versities and research centers in the world. With no close rival in sci- ence and technology research and development, it is the world’s leader in virtually all scientifi c fi elds. The United States is also the world’s hegemonic military power. Politically, the United States stands out as a federal republic with an effective system of separation of powers and the most overarching and deep-rooted system of civil liberties. In its more than 200 years of history as an independent country, the United States suffered, it is true, a bloody civil war (1861–1865), but from it arose a sustained basic harmony that has allowed the country to avoid any violent change of political regime and institutional framework. The contrast between the U.S. reality and that of Latin America is painfully palpable. With some exceptions and taking into account that clear differences exist among the different countries, the overall living conditions of most Latin Americans are exceedingly poor. Some parts of the region are stricken by acute poverty, while the subcontinent’s levels of economic inequality are among the most extreme in the world. Both unemployment and underemployment are markedly high and chronic. Latin America could effectively compete in the global economy by mobilizing its human resources, but the quality of public education is defi cient, and the public and private sectors contribute little to scientifi c and technological development. Malnutrition is as much a problem as the region’s weak public health services. To make Preface vii matters worse, since the mid-1980s, Latin American countries have witnessed a terrible criminal pandemic led by drug lords and gang- sters. The threat to personal safety in Rio de Janeiro, Medellín, San Salvador, and Mexico City drives away investment and discourages social, economic, and political participation. And to top it all, our political institutions, our laws, our civic practices, and our democra- cies are fragile. These facts raise several key questions. For example, is Latin America incapable of competing in the current international land- scape? Or, why is it that Latin America remains underdeveloped, while countries in other regions that were poor just a few decades ago have managed to emerge from poverty and continue to develop? At the core of these questions lies a deeper one regarding Latin America’s place in history: what, really, is Latin America? Making reference to Mexico, Octavio Paz answered that question with poetic precision: Latin America is “an eccentric outpost of the West.” Latin America is the West, but it remains at its margin. There are times when the region appears to wish not to be part of the West and to turn its back on the cardinal objectives of Western civilization: individual liberties and material well-being. What, then, are the region’s aims? At times, they seem to be elusive utopias, other times bloody revolutions; but they are mostly futile efforts to jump-start history. Meanwhile, the region’s eccentricity continues to be a source of confusion. But the facts are there. Both Americas exist and coexist with diffi culty: there is no real bridge between them but, instead, a gap. This volume seeks to explain the development gap between Latin America and the United States, both from a historical viewpoint and from a political/institutional perspective. The implications for Latin America’s future are important. Although today most countries in the region embrace liberal democratic values and institutions, a number of past and current leaders have advocated an alternative, less demo- cratic course. What will be the impact on the gap between the two Americas should such leaders prevail? Today’s defenders of an alterna- tive course argue that the gap will narrow: high oil and gas prices will better enable them to implement government programs geared toward improving income distribution and social justice. But they are mis- taken. Once again, as in the times of Aristotle, the demagogues mislead their people and, while precipitating revolutionary movements, they will quietly kill democracy. Oil, even more so than the ozone layer or the Arctic glaciers, has an expiration date. The West will not sit idle in the face of its own destruction; eventually, new sources of energy will viii Preface be devised. And what will the oil market–dependent countries do then? The gap will no doubt become an abyss. The success of an authentically democratic system depends on the support of a virtuous citizenry, which in turn can only exist within the framework of free and transparent law-abiding institutions. At the beginning of the twenty-fi rst century, a majority of the countries in Latin America are fi rmly set on a democratic course, the true republi- can course embraced at the time of independence from Europe, not its dictatorial caricature. The development gap between Latin America and the United States is not a fatal condition. The latter was able to build an admirable political system that runs like clockwork, even if tainted by vestiges of racism and by an often myopic foreign policy. Latin America, on the other hand, inherited an admirable cultural tradition, but proceeded to squander it in a succession of civil wars, military uprisings, atrocious tyrannical episodes, and revolutionary delusions. Fortunately, most of the countries in the region have become aware of their historical fail- ures and of their Western identity. They are no longer frivolous about it, but have instead become serious players who follow clear rules in the most serious of games: building for future generations a social atmosphere in which basic human decency is able to fl ourish. Enrique Krauze Note 1. Mario Vargas Llosa, Conversation in the Cathedral (New York: Harper & Row, 1974), p. 3. Preface ix

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