Abrahamsffirs 2 11/15/07 iii F L C AIR ENDING OMPLIANCE I I C NTELLIGENCE AND MPLICATIONS FOR REDIT R M ISK ANAGEMENT C R. A LARK BRAHAMS M Z INGYUAN HANG JOHNWILEY&SONS,INC. Abrahamsftoc2 11/10/07 viii Abrahamsffirs 2 11/15/07 i F L C AIR ENDING OMPLIANCE Abrahamsffirs 2 11/15/07 ii Wiley & SAS Business Series The Wiley & SAS Business Series presents books that help senior-level managers with their critical management decisions. Titles in the Wiley and SAS Business Series include: Business Intelligence Competency Centers: A Team Approach to Maximizing Competitive Advan- tage, by Gloria J. Miller, Dagmar Brautigam, and Stefanie Gerlach CaseStudiesinPerformanceManagement:AGuidefromtheExperts, by Tony C. Adkins CIOBestPractices:EnablingStrategicValuewithInformationTechnology, by Joe Stenzel CreditRiskScorecards:DevelopingandImplementingIntelligentCreditScoring,byNaeemSiddiqi CustomerDataIntegration:ReachingaSingleVersionoftheTruth, by Jill Dyche and Evan Levy Information Revolution: Using the Information Evolution Model to Grow Your Business, by Jim Davis, Gloria J. Miller, and Allan Russell MarketingAutomation:PracticalStepstoMoreEffectiveDirectMarketing, by Jeff LeSueur Performance Management: Finding the Missing Pieces (to Close the Intelligence Gap), by Gary Cokins For more information on any of the above titles, please visit www.wiley.com. Abrahamsffirs 2 11/15/07 iii F L C AIR ENDING OMPLIANCE I I C NTELLIGENCE AND MPLICATIONS FOR REDIT R M ISK ANAGEMENT C R. A LARK BRAHAMS M Z INGYUAN HANG JOHNWILEY&SONS,INC. Abrahamsffirs 2 11/15/07 iv Thisbookisprintedonacid-freepaper. Copyright2008bySASInstitute,Inc.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. 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FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitourWebsiteathttp://www.wiley.com. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData: Abrahams,ClarkR.,1951— Fairlendingcompliance:intelligenceandimplicationsforcreditriskmanagement/ ClarkR.Abrahams,MingyuanZhang. p.cm. —(Wiley&SASbusinessseries) Includesindex. ISBN978-0-470-16776-2 (cloth) 1. Credit—UnitedStates—Management.2. Riskmanagement—UnitedStates.3. Bank loans.I.Zhang,Mingyuan,1960-II.Title. HG3754.5.U6A272008 658.8(cid:1)8—dc22 2007026259 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10987654321 Abrahamsftoc2 11/10/07 v C ONTENTS Foreword ix Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii 1 Credit Access and Credit Risk 1 EnterpriseRiskManagement 2 LawsandRegulations 4 ChangingMarkets 6 PreparefortheChallenges 8 ReturnonCompliance 14 Appendix1A:TaxonomyofEnterpriseRisks 17 Appendix1B:MakingtheBusinessCase 18 2 Methodology and Elements of Risk and Compliance Intelligence 23 RoleofDatainFairLendingComplianceIntelligence 23 Sampling 29 TypesofStatisticalAnalysis 35 ComplianceSelf-TestingStrategyMatrix 36 CreditRiskManagementSelf-TestingStrategyMatrix 38 MatchingAppropriateStatisticalMethodstoRegulatory ExaminationFactors 42 CaseforaSystematicApproach 43 Summary 44 Appendix 2A: FFIEC Fair Lending Examination Factors within Seven Broad Categories 46 3 Analytic Process Initiation 51 UniversalPerformanceIndicator 51 OverallFramework 53 DefineDisparity 53 DeriveIndices 58 GenerateUniversalPerformanceIndicator 65 PerformanceMonitoring 75 Summary 80 Appendix3A:UPIApplicationExample:LiquidityRiskManagement 83 Abrahamsftoc2 11/10/07 vi vi CONTENTS 4 Loan Pricing Analysis 85 UnderstandingLoanPricingModels 87 SystematicPricingAnalysisProcess 91 Overage/UnderageAnalysis 112 Overage/UnderageMonitoringOverview 123 Summary 125 Appendix4A:PricingAnalysisforHMDAData 126 Appendix4B:PricingandLoanTermsAdjustments 133 Appendix 4C: Overage/Underage Data Model (Restricted to Input Fields, by Category) 137 Appendix4D:DetailedOverage/UnderageReporting 139 Appendix4E:SampleSizeDetermination 142 5 Regression Analysis for Compliance Testing 147 TraditionalMain-EffectsRegressionModelApproach 148 DynamicConditionalProcess 151 DCPModelingFramework 154 DCPApplication:ASimulation 168 Summary 180 Appendix5A:IllustrationofBootstrapEstimation 181 6 Alternative Credit Risk Models 183 CreditUnderwritingandPricing 184 OverviewofCreditRiskModels 185 HybridSystemConstruction 201 HybridSystemMaintenance 216 HybridUnderwritingModelswithTraditionalCreditInformation 222 HybridUnderwritingModelswithNontraditionalCredit Information 234 HybridModelsandOverrideAnalysis 237 Summary 248 Appendix6A:LoanUnderwritingwithCreditScoring 250 Appendix6B:Log-LinearandLogisticRegressionModels 254 Appendix 6C: Additional Examples of Hybrid Models with Traditional Credit Information 255 Appendix6D:GeneralOverrideMonitoringProcess 265 7 Multilayered Segmentation 267 SegmentationSchemesSupportingIntegratedViews 267 ProposedSegmentationApproach 269 Applications 275 Summary 297 Appendix7A:MathematicalUnderpinningsofBSM 298 Appendix7B:DataElementExamplesforDynamicRelationshipPricingExample 301 Abrahamsftoc2 11/10/07 vii CONTENTS vii 8 Model Validation 305 ModelValidationforRiskandComplianceIntelligence 305 TypicalModelValidationProcess,Methods,Metrics, andComponents 307 AnIntegratedModelValidationApproach 317 Summary 344 ClosingObservations 344 Index 347
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