Factors Influencing Farmland Conversion Along the Rural Urban Fringe

193 Pages·2017·2.25 MB·English

by  Andrew J. Huddy

University of Connecticut
OpenCommons@UConn
Doctoral Dissertations University of Connecticut Graduate School
8-23-2016
Farming Alone: Factors Influencing Farmland
Conversion Along the Rural Urban Fringe
Andrew J. Huddy
University of Connecticut - Storrs, [email protected]
Follow this and additional works at:https://opencommons.uconn.edu/dissertations
Recommended Citation
Huddy, Andrew J., "Farming Alone: Factors Influencing Farmland Conversion Along the Rural Urban Fringe" (2016).Doctoral
Dissertations. 1237.
https://opencommons.uconn.edu/dissertations/1237
Farming Alone: Factors Influencing Farmland Conversion
Along the Rural Urban Fringe
Andrew J. Huddy, PhD
University of Connecticut, 2016

ABSTRACT

Urbanization is a complex process of converting urban fringe and rural land to urban land
uses and has caused various impacts on ecosystem structure, function, and dynamics. Estimates
of the agricultural land converted annually to low density non-agricultural uses vary from
between 800,000 to more than 3 million acres nationwide—a rate of five times the rate of
population growth, and in the process, fragmented the agricultural land base. Much of the land
lost is prime or unique farmland, disproportionately located near cities. Classical land use theory
asserts that a study of market forces and land value, defined in terms of inherent productivity
and/or distance from urban centers, can explain this change.
This study is important in advancing geographic research on land use change in urban
fringe areas, methodologically and theoretically. Data utilized were parcel-scale and remotely-
sensed spatial data for a complete Michigan county in an attempt to better test the effects of
economic and non-economic factors on land use change in a statistical model. An initial pilot
study helped identify potential factor relationships in the research.
The research presented makes several advances over previous land use studies by
combining several methods for modeling land use change. First, it uses non-economic variables
based on land attachment and social capital, as well as traditional economic variables to explain
Andrew J. Huddy, PhD - University of Connecticut, 2016

land use change. Second, it develops a continuous parcel data set using existing ownership
records. This better represents the decision-making unit at farm scale with respect to farm
retention. Third, it combines modeling techniques, including ordinary least squares Geographic
Weighted Regression (GWR), to analyze and visualize factors influencing land use in the rural
fringe reduce residual spatial autocorrelation. Other spatial analyses were used to identify factor
concentrations, patterns of rural networking, and clustering related to social capital.
Results show that prime farmland is significantly related to farm conversion and that the
important social capital variable related to farm preservation participation also accounts, to a
certain degree, for the change in land use for the study area. Strength of relationship and factor
patterning factors related to land use change were successfully identified. Additionally, this
research has illustrated the need to explore means to include non-economic variables in future
research on the causes of urban sprawl and loss of farmland.
Farming Alone:
Factors Influencing Farmland Conversion
Along the Rural Urban Fringe

Andrew J. Huddy

B.S. Manhattan College, 1981
M.A. CUNY Hunter College, 1994

A Dissertation
Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
at the
University of Connecticut
2016

[email protected]
[email protected]
Copyright by
Andrew J. Huddy

© 2016
APPROVAL PAGE

Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation

Farming Alone:
Factors Influencing Farmland Conversion
Along the Rural Urban Fringe

Presented by
Andrew J. Huddy, B.A., M.A.

Major Advisor __________________________________________
Jeffrey P. Osleeb, Ph.D.

Associate Advisor __________________________________________
Ken Foote, Ph.D.

Associate Advisor __________________________________________
Carol Atkinson-Palombo, Ph.D.

University of Connecticut
2016

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Completing this dissertation later in life has led me down many paths. The guidance and
support of my advisors, teachers, and fellow students in the Geography department at the
University of Connecticut has been significant for the completion of this dissertation. I would
like to thank Dr. Jeff Osleeb for overseeing the project; he has been generous with his time,
knowledge, and friendship. Ever since we worked together on my Master’s Thesis at Hunter
College and now complete this research at UConn, he has provided expert advice and
encouragement throughout this difficult project.
Thank you to Dr. Robison and Dr. Siles from Michigan State University for introducing
me to social capital concepts that served as a basis for this research, and for providing
subsequent assistance with my initial survey work.
At different times during this project, certain individuals really came through; Dr. Brent
McCusker, Dr. James Biles, and Phyliss Peterson, and all provided helpful advice, comments and
suggestions on different aspects of producing this manuscript and progressing with the project.
Thank you for the support of different local organizations for providing financial
assistance as well as access to their data for analysis. Jon Cooper and Paul Hamilton of the Tri-
County Regional Planning Commission, and Tim Vandermark at Eaton County Equalization all
provided great assistance in accessing local materials. Thank you also to Richard Harlow at
Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Office for his continued advice in
the collection and interpretation of farmland preservation data.
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This project would have been difficult without the support of Andrew Kilpatrick at City
of Lansing. Sam Quon from the COL IT/GIS Administration provided patient technical support
working with local data and GIS procedures.
At different critical moments during this project, Dr. Kevin Brooks and Dr. Jeff Stratton
provided critical statistical support. Thank you to Richard Mrozinski at UConn for his continued
support and friendship during challenging moments of the research. Also, thank you Patricia,
my anonymous reviewer for the thorough and constructive comments which greatly improved
the quality of the dissertation document.
Most of all, this work is dedicated to wife, Cathy. Through her patience and great
sacrifice, Cathy has helped provide the structured environment, ideas and suggestions that I
needed to complete this this project. Throughout these past years, she has been the compass for
this research, working with me in the trenches during the good and difficult times of this project.
Without her support, I would have given up long ago and settled for "good enough". Thank you
for believing in me.

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CONTENTS
APPROVAL PAGE ........................................................................................................................ ii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................. iii
LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... viii
LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1
1.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................1
1.2. Purpose of Study: Social Capital and Farmland Conversion .............................................2
1.3. Importance of This Study ...................................................................................................4
1.4. Organization of the Dissertation ........................................................................................6
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................. 8
2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................8
2.2. Theoretical Background ...................................................................................................10
2.2.1. Market Forces ..................................................................................................... 10
2.2.2. Market Failure ..................................................................................................... 11
2.2.3. Social Capital as a Countervailing Force ............................................................ 14
2.3. Applied Research ............................................................................................................17
2.3.1. Urban Sprawl and the Rural Urban Fringe ........................................................ 17
2.3.2. Farmland Preservation and Land Use Policy ...................................................... 28
2.3.3. Farmland Value ................................................................................................... 34
2.3.4. Land Use Modeling............................................................................................. 41
2.3.5. Landscape Ecology ............................................................................................. 48
2.3.6. Geospatial Analysis ............................................................................................ 54
2.4. Summary ..........................................................................................................................59
CHAPTER THREE STUDY AREA ............................................................................................ 61
3.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................61
3.2. Study Area Selection........................................................................................................61
3.3. Summary ..........................................................................................................................64
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES ....................................... 65
4.1. Introduction - Research Questions ....................................................................................65
4.2. Research Questions ..........................................................................................................65
4.2.1. Main Research Question (1) ............................................................................... 65
4.2.2. Additional Research Questions ........................................................................... 66
4.3. Summary ..........................................................................................................................69
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CHAPTER FIVE METHODS AND DATA ANALYSIS............................................................ 70
5.1. Methods - Introduction ....................................................................................................70
5.2. Statistical Analysis ...........................................................................................................70
5.2.1. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)............................................................................ 71
5.2.2. Linear Regression: Null hypotheses ................................................................... 72
5.2.3. Stepwise Regression - Variable Reduction ......................................................... 73
5.3. Geospatial Analysis .........................................................................................................75
5.3.1. Global Moran’s I: Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis .......................................... 75
5.3.2. Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation ........................................................ 76
5.3.3. Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) Analysis........................................... 77
5.3.4. Mapping the Results of GWR ............................................................................. 80
5.3.5. Comparison with OLS ....................................................................................... 80
5.4. Data - Conceptual Model .................................................................................................81
5.4.1. Model Specification ............................................................................................ 83
5.4.2. Pilot Study ........................................................................................................... 84
5.4.3. Data Sources and Preparation ............................................................................. 86
5.4.4. GIS: Farm Parcel Processing .............................................................................. 88
5.5. Variables ..........................................................................................................................91
5.5.1. Dependent Variables ........................................................................................... 91
5.5.2. Observational Unit - Farm Parcel ....................................................................... 92
5.5.3. Independent Variables ........................................................................................ 94
5.5.3.1. Data Extraction – Neighborhood Scale ................................................. 95
5.5.3.2. Social Capital Variables ........................................................................ 96
5.5.3.3. Distance Variables ................................................................................. 98
5.5.3.4. Economic Geographic Variables ......................................................... 100
5.6. Summary ........................................................................................................................103
CHAPTER SIX FINDINGS ....................................................................................................... 106
6.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................106
6.2. Statistical Results ...........................................................................................................106
6.2.1. Assessing the Hypotheses ................................................................................. 107
6.2.1.1. Hypothesis #2: Neighborhood Effect .................................................. 107
6.2.1.2. Hypothesis #3: Distance Effect ........................................................... 108
6.2.1.3. Hypothesis #4: Cluster Effect .............................................................. 109
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