Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran: Nuclear Dominoes? PDF
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Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 Other Palgrave Pivot titles Christopher Hobbs and Matthew Moran: Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran Daniel J. Hill and Daniel Whistler: The Right to Wear Religious Symbols Donald Kirk: Okinawa and Jeju: Bases of Discontent Sara Hsu: Lessons in Sustainable Development from China & Taiwan Paola Coletti: Evidence for Public Policy Design: How to Learn from Best Practices Thomas Paul Bonfiglio: Why Is English Literature? Language and Letters for the Twenty-First Century David D. Grafton, Joseph F. Duggan, and Jason Craige Harris (eds): Christian-Muslim Relations in the Anglican and Lutheran Communions Anthony B. Pinn: What Has the Black Church to Do with Public Life? Catherine Conybeare: The Laughter of Sarah: Biblical Exegesis, Feminist Theory, and the Laughter of Delight Peter D. 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Christopher Hobbs Lecturer in Science and Security, Department of War Studies, King’s College London and Matthew Moran Lecturer in International Security, Department of War Studies, King’s College London DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 Christopher Hobbs and Matthew Moran © 2014 Foreword © Sir Lawrence Freedman, 2014 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-36980-2 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2014 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: 978–1–137–36981–9 PDF ISBN: 978-1-349-47507-0 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. www.palgrave.com/pivot doi: 10.1057/9781137369819 Contents About the Authors vi Foreword vii Preface and Acknowledgements ix List of Abbreviations xi Introduction 1 1 The Dangers of a Nuclear-Armed Iran 10 2 Saudi Arabia: The Logic of Restraint 28 3 Egypt: Domestic Uncertainty, Nuclear Consistency 41 4 Syria: A Political Regime in Flux 55 5 Turkey: Non-proliferation and International Integration 67 6 Iran: Arming Terrorists with Nukes? 81 7 Living with an Iranian Bomb: Preventing Further Proliferation in the Middle East 93 Bibliography 106 Index 119 DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 v About the Authors Christopher Hobbs is Lecturer in Science and Security in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. A physicist by background he studied for an MPhys at the University of Oxford and holds a PhD from the University of London. He has been awarded fellowships from the Leverhulme Trust and the MacArthur Foundation to sup- port this research. Matthew Moran is Lecturer in International Security in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. He studied for a BA (Hons) and MA at the National University of Ireland, Galway and holds a PhD from University College London. His current research is funded by the MacArthur Foundation. vi DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 Foreword The prospective spread of nuclear weapons has been high on the international agenda for over five decades. A number of new countries have joined the club but nowhere near as many as once feared. The commentators of fifty years ago would be surprised to learn that not only have no nuclear weapons been used in anger over this period but also that the proliferation problem has been addressed apparently effectively. In addition to the major powers – the five permanent members of the Security Council – the new nuclear-armed countries are India and Pakistan, with their fear of each other, and Israel. The idea that a nuclear capability is important for reasons of prestige or as a dem- onstration of scientific prowess no longer carries much weight. In addition, the 1970 non-proliferation treaty has generated a formidable normative constraint. In other cases – say Germany or Italy – the end of the Cold War and NATO’s durability reduced any incentive to develop nuclear weapons just in case established security arrange- ments failed. Some countries that were once close to a nuclear status have given up on the idea – notably Libya, South Africa, and Iraq. This is why the current focus is on the two hard cases – North Korea, which has tested devices, and Iran, which is currently enriching uranium to the level required for a bomb. In both cases, the basis for international pressure is in part their disregard of treaty obligations and anxiety that a nuclear arsenal will encourage them to be reckless in their foreign policies. In addition there is a fear that if they can establish themselves as credible nuclear powers DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 vii viii Foreword they will set in motion a vicious cycle – encouraging others to follow suit. So in the case of North Korea the fear is that South Korea and Japan might no longer trust the nuclear guarantee provided by the United States. In the case of a nuclear Iran, a number of countries that might feel threatened by this development do not have an alliance with the United States to fall back upon. For this reason one of the arguments regularly cited for keeping Iranian nuclear ambitions in check is the risk that it could have a cascade effect as a number of other regional powers seek to develop their own arsenals. Christopher Hobbs and Matthew Moran perform in this book a valuable service by exploring the extent to which an Iranian bomb would trigger further proliferation, looking in detail at the potential responses of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and Turkey, as well as the possibility of Iran facilitating a ‘terrorist bomb’. They do not deny the anxieties that could be generated and that states would look for responses to an increased threat, but they rightly also draw attention to the practical difficulties that would be faced by any country seeking to build up its own nuclear capability, and the political reasons why prudence may well triumph over panic. This is an important study, careful and analytical, mindful of the many uncertainties, but relying as much as possible on reason and evidence. They demonstrate why a nuclear-armed Iran might be absorbed into the international system as readily as past proliferators, as neighbours adjust to the new realities rather than seek to overturn them. This is not of course to say that the development does not pose considerable dangers. The point is only that there is no automaticity about the response. All involved would face difficult choices, and one of the virtues of this book is that it helps clarify those choices before they have to be made. Sir Lawrence Freedman King’s College London DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 Preface and Acknowledgements The idea for this book stems from an article published in the Italian Journal of International Affairs, The International Spectator, in December 2012. The article was a response to what we perceived to be the flawed argument underpin- ning the idea of a pre-emptive military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Of the assumptions upon which this argument is based, one in particular seems to be frequently taken for granted by commentators, particularly in the United States and Israel – that a nuclear-armed Iran would provoke a proliferation cascade in the Middle East and, consequently, greatly destabilize the region. Drawing on available, open source material, we examined this assump- tion in the context of four Middle Eastern countries often highlighted as the most likely to respond in kind to Iranian nuclearization, namely Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Syria. We found that there was significant evidence to sug- gest that a proliferation cascade was not inevitable, nor in some cases even likely. We set out our argument in as much detail as possible in the context of the inevitable constraints imposed by word limits, and the article was well received – in a recent op-ed published in the Telegraph, former UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw drew on our analysis in his argument against a military strike on Iran.1 Yet while the journal article captured the principal points of our argument, we felt that the hyper-politicized nature of the Iranian nuclear challenge, combined with the complex- ity of the issues at stake, called for a more comprehensive and nuanced treatment of the subject. For this reason we have significantly expanded and developed our argument DOI: 10.1057/9781137369819 ix
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