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Explanation in Causal Inference: Methods for Mediation and Interaction PDF

729 Pages·2015·3.81 MB·English
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Explanation in Causal Inference Explanation in Causal Inference MethodsforMediationandInteraction TYLER J. VANDERWEELE 1 3 OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide. Oxford NewYork Auckland CapeTown DaresSalaam HongKong Karachi KualaLumpur Madrid Melbourne MexicoCity Nairobi NewDelhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto Withofficesin Argentina Austria Brazil Chile CzechRepublic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore SouthKorea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam (cid:2)c 2015OxfordUniversityPress PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaby OxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016 www.oup.com OxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertain othercountries. Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced, storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans, electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,orotherwise, withoutthepriorpermissionofOxfordUniversityPress. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData VanderWeele,Tyler. Explanationincausalinference:methodsformediation andinteraction/TylerVanderWeele. pages cm Summary:“Acomprehensivebookonmethodsformediationandinteraction. Theonlybooktoapproachthistopicfromtheperspectiveofcausal inference.Numeroussoftwaretoolsprovided.Easy-to-readand accessible.Examplesdrawnfromdiversefields.Anessentialreference foranyoneconductingempiricalresearchinthebiomedicalor socialsciences”–Providedbypublisher. ISBN978-0-19-932587-0(hardback) 1. Socialsciences–Research. 2. Socialsciences–Methodology. 3. Causation. I. Title. H62.V32382015 (cid:2) 001.422–dc23 2014029661 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica onacid-freepaper Tomyteachers,fromwhomIhavelearnedtoreasonwell;andtomyfamilyandloved ones,fromwhomIhavehadthesupporttodoso. CONTENTS P.reface xi PARTONE MediationAnalysis 1. ExplanationandMechanism 3 1.1. CausalInferenceandExplanation 4 1.2. FormsofExplanationandTypesofMechanisms 7 1.3. MotivationsforAssessingMediation,Interaction, andInterference 11 1.4. OrganizationofthisBook 16 2. Mediation:IntroductionandRegression-BasedApproaches 20 2.1. ClassicRegressionApproachtoMediation Analysis 21 2.2. CounterfactualApproachtoMediationAnalysis: ContinuousOutcomes 22 2.3. AssumptionsaboutConfounding 24 2.4. BinaryandCountOutcomes 27 2.5. BinaryMediators 29 2.6. ComparisonofApproaches:Product-of-Coefficientand DifferenceMethods 30 2.7. DescriptionoftheSASMacro 35 2.8. DescriptionoftheSPSSMacro 38 2.9. DescriptionoftheStataMacro 40 2.10. HypotheticalExamplewithOutput 41 2.11. EmpiricalExampleinGeneticEpidemiology 43 2.12. WhentoIncludeanExposure–MediatorInteraction 45 2.13. ProportionMediated 47 2.14. ProportionEliminated 50 2.15. StudyDesignandMediationAnalysis 52 2.16. CounterfactualNotationforNaturalDirectand IndirectEffects 56 2.17. AnAlternativeRegression-BasedEstimationApproachUsing Simulations 60 2.18. CodefortheSimulation-BasedApproachinR 62 2.19. Discussion 64 vi Contents 3. SensitivityAnalysisforMediation 66 3.1. SensitivityAnalysisforUnmeasuredConfoundingfor TotalEffects 67 3.2. SensitivityAnalysisforUnmeasuredConfoundingfor ControlledDirectEffects 76 3.3. SensitivityAnalysisforUnmeasuredConfoundingforNatural DirectandIndirectEffects 81 3.4. SensitivityAnalysisUsingTwoTrials 87 3.5. SensitivityAnalysisforDirectandIndirectEffectsinthePresenceof MeasurementError 92 3.6. Discussion 97 4. MediationAnalysiswithSurvivalData 98 4.1. EarlierLiteratureonMediationAnalysiswithSurvivalModels 98 4.2. MediationAnalysiswithanAcceleratedFailureTimeModel 100 4.3. MediationAnalysiswithaProportionalHazardsModel 101 4.4. MediationwithanAdditiveHazardModel 103 4.5. AWeightingApproachtoDirectandIndirectEffectswith SurvivalOutcomes 104 4.6. SensitivityAnalysiswithSurvivalData 108 4.7. Discussion 111 5. MultipleMediators 113 5.1. Regression-BasedApproachestoMultipleMediators 114 5.2. AWeightingApproachtoMultipleMediators 122 5.3. ControlledDirectEffectsandExposure-Induced Confounding 126 5.4. EffectDecompositionwithExposure-InducedConfounding 135 5.5. Path-SpecificEffects 140 5.6. SensitivityAnalysisforExposure-InducedConfounding 144 5.7. Discussion 152 6. MediationAnalysiswithTime-VaryingExposuresandMediators 153 6.1. NotationandDefinitions 154 6.2. ControlledDirectEffectswithTime-VaryingExposuresand Mediators 155 6.3. NaturalDirectandIndirectEffectsandtheirRandomized InterventionalAnalogueswithTime-VaryingExposuresand Mediators 164 6.4. CounterfactualAnalysisofMacKinnon’sThree-Wave MediationModel 166 6.5. Discussion 168 7. SelectedTopicsinMediationAnalysis 169 7.1. OtherEstimationApproaches 169 7.2. Ill-DefinedMediatorsandMultipleVersionsoftheMediator 172 7.3. ControversiesOverAssumptionsandAlternativeInterpretationsof Effects 179 Contents vii 7.4. DirectandIndirectEffectsinHealthDisparitiesResearch 183 7.5. Rubin’sSeeminglyProblematicExamples 185 7.6. AThree-WayDecompositionintoDirect,Indirect,and InteractiveEffects 193 7.7. AlternativeIdentificationStrategiesUsingConfounding Control 200 7.8. IdentificationUsingBaselineCovariatesthatInteractwith Exposure 202 7.9. PowerandSampleSizeCalculationsforMediationAnalysis 204 7.10. Discussion 205 8. OtherTopicsRelatedtoIntermediates 206 8.1. PrincipalStratification 206 8.2. SurrogateOutcomes 217 8.3. InstrumentalVariables 228 8.4. MendelianRandomization 232 8.5. Discussion 245 PARTTWO InteractionAnalysis 9. AnIntroductiontoInteractionAnalysis 249 9.1. MeasuresofInteractionandScale ofInteraction 249 9.2. StatisticalInteractionsandStatisticalInference 257 9.3. InferenceforAdditiveInteraction 259 9.4. SASandStataCodeforAdditiveInteractionfromLogistic Regression 261 9.5. AdditiveVersusMultiplicativeInteraction 265 9.6. ConfoundingandtheInterpretationofInteraction:Interaction VersusEffectHeterogeneity 268 9.7. PresentingInteractionAnalyses 270 9.8. SynergismandMechanisticInteraction 272 9.9. InteractionsforContinuousOutcomesandTime-to-Event Outcomes 276 9.10. IdentifyingSubgroupstoTargetTreatment 277 9.11. QualitativeInteraction 279 9.12. AttributingEffectstoInteractions 281 9.13. Discussion 284 10. MechanisticInteraction 286 10.1. SufficientCausesandSynergism 287 10.2. StatisticalInteractionwithNoMechanistic Interaction 288 10.3. EmpiricalTestsforSufficientCauseSynergism 291 10.4. SufficientCauseInteractionandStatistical Interactions 294 10.5. “Epistatic”orSingularInteractions 296 10.6. ExtensionstoOrdinalExposures 299

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