Explaining the Iraq War: Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence Paperback PDF
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EXPLAINING THE IRAQ WAR h e almost universally accepted explanation for the Iraq war is very clear and consistent – the US decision to attack Saddam Hussein’s regime on March 19, 2003 was a product of the ideological agenda, misguided pri- orities, intentional deceptions and grand strategies of President George W. Bush and prominent ‘neoconservatives’ and ‘unilateralists’ on his national security team. Despite the widespread appeal of this version of his- tory, Frank P. Harvey argues that it remains an unsubstantiated assertion and an underdeveloped argument without a logical foundation. His book aims to provide a historically grounded account of the events and strat- egies which pushed the US–UK coalition towards war. h e analysis is based on both factual and counterfactual evidence, combines causal mechanisms derived from multiple levels of analysis, and ultimately coni rms the role of path dependence and momentum as a much stronger explanation for the sequence of decisions that led to war. frank p. harvey was recently appointed University Research Professor of International Relations at Dalhousie University. He held the 2007 J. William Fulbright Visiting Research Chair in Canadian Studies (SUNY, Plattsburgh), is a Senior Research Fellow with the Canadian Defence and Foreign Af airs Institute, and was former Director of the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie. Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:33 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:33 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 EXPLAINING THE IRAQ WAR Counterfactual h eory, Logic and Evidence FRANK P. HARVEY Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:33 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge University Press h e Edinburgh Building, C ambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107676589 © Frank P. Harvey 2012 h is publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2012 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library L ibrary of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data Harvey, Frank P. Explaining the Iraq War : counterfactual theory, logic and evidence / Frank P. Harvey. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-107-01472-5 (hardback) – ISBN 978-1-107-67658-9 (pbk.) 1. Iraq War, 2003–Causes. 2. United States–Foreign relations–2001–2009. I. Title. DS79.757.H37 2011 956.7044′31–dc23 2011028336 ISBN 978-1-107-01472-5 Hardback ISBN 978-1-107-67658-9 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:33 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 To Anupa, my wife and BFF. To Jay and Kalli G for being so perfect. To Janet, Christine and Carolyn for their unconditional love. To Sudershan and Ramesh for their endless support and limitless generosity. Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:33 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 CONTENTS List of i gures page viii List of tables ix Acknowledgments x Introduction 1 1 Comparative counterfactual analysis and the 2003 Iraq war 2 3 2 Leadership, political context(s) and the Iraq war 40 3 Democratic national security advisers 90 4 Domestic and congressional politics 126 5 American intelligence failures and miscalculations 147 6 Societal pressures and public opinion 181 7 International politics, global WMD consensus and UN power balancing 195 8 Hussein’s mistakes, miscalculations and misperceptions 241 9 Summary and implications 265 10 Conclusion 2 85 Bibliography 3 07 Index 3 34 vii Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:38 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 FIGURES 1.1 Neoconism page 29 6.1 Historical Bush approval ratings 182 6.2 US public support for Bush’s multilateral military strategy 183 6.3 Conditions determining US public support for military action 185 viii Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:40 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 TABLES 9.1 Enabling conditions inl uencing Al Gore presidency – 2002–2003 page 266 9.2 Comparative counterfactual proi les of possible Al Gore administrations 268 9.3 Sequence of choices leading to war – 2002–2003 272 ix Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:50 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am very grateful to the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canada-US Fulbright program for generous i nancial support to complete the project. I would like to thank Jennifer Harris (Lucid Pulp) and Josephine Lane (Cambridge University Press) for their meticulous attention to detail as editorial assistants, and John Mitton for his outstanding research assist- ance. I would also like to thank Michael Brecher, Gary Goertz, Kim Richard Nossal, Richard Ned Lebow, Jack Levy, Denis Stairs, Philip Tetlock and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments, suggestions and insights on earlier drat s. Any errors are my own. x Downloaded from Cambridge Books Online by IP 14.139.43.12 on Tue Oct 09 08:14:50 BST 2012. http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139044226 Cambridge Books Online © Cambridge University Press, 2012 Cambridge Books Online http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ Explaining the Iraq War Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence Frank P. Harvey Book DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139044226 Online ISBN: 9781139044226 Hardback ISBN: 9781107014725 Paperback ISBN: 9781107676589 Chapter Introduction pp. 1-22 Chapter DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139044226.001 Cambridge University Press
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