Evolutionary Games in Natural, Social, and Virtual Worlds Evolutionary Games in Natural, Social, and Virtual Worlds DANIEL FRIEDMAN AND BARRY SINERVO 1 1 OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford.Itfurthers theUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship,andeducation bypublishingworldwide.OxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversity PressintheUKandcertainothercountries. PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica. ©OxfordUniversityPress2016 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicense,orundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereproduction rightsorganization.Inquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove. Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Names:Friedman,Daniel,1947–author.|Sinervo,Barry,author. Title:Evolutionarygamesinnatural,social,andvirtualworlds/Daniel FriedmanandBarrySinervo. Description:Oxford;NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,[2016]|Includes bibliographicalreferencesandindex. Identifiers:LCCN2015034942|ISBN9780199981151(alk.paper) Subjects:LCSH:Gametheory.|Evolution. Classification:LCCHB144.F7462016|DDC519.3–dc23LCrecordavailable athttp://lccn.loc.gov/2015034942 ISBN978–0–19–998115–1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 TypesetinArno Printedonacid-freepaper PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica CONTENTS Preface xi PART ONE Basics 1. PopulationDynamics 3 1.1. Fitness 4 1.2. Tradeoffsandfitnessdependence 5 1.3. Dependenceonenvironment,density,andfrequency 8 1.4. Statespacegeometry 9 1.5. Memesandgenes 12 1.6. Finitepopulationsandrandomness 13 1.7. Replicatordynamicsindiscretetime 13 1.8. Replicatordynamicsincontinuoustime 15 1.9. Steadystatesandstability 16 1.10. Sexualdynamics 18 1.11. Discussion 25 AppendixA:DerivationoftheFisherequation 25 AppendixB:Replicatordynamics,meanfitness,andentropy 26 Exercises 29 Notes 30 Bibliography 32 2. SimpleFrequencyDependence 33 2.1. TheHawk-Dovegame 34 2.2. H-Dparametersanddynamics 36 2.3. Thethreekindsof2×2games 40 2.4. DilemmasplayedbyvirusesandeBaysellers 45 2.5. Nonlinearfrequencydependence 49 2.6. RPSandthesimplex 51 2.7. ReplicatordynamicsforRPS 53 vi CONTENTS 2.8. Discussion 58 Appendix:Payoffdifferencesin3×3games 59 Exercises 60 Notes 62 Bibliography 63 3. Dynamicsinn-DimensionalGames 64 3.1. Sectoringthe2-dsimplex 64 3.2. Estimating3×3payoffmatrices 69 3.3. Morestrategies 73 3.4. Nonlinearfrequencydependence 77 3.5. Two-populationgames:Thesquare 78 3.6. Hawk-Dovewithtwopopulations 81 3.7. Own-populationeffects 83 3.8. Higher-dimensionalgames 87 3.9. Alternativedynamics 87 3.10. Discussion 90 Appendix:Estimating3×3payoffmatrices 91 Exercises 98 Notes 99 Bibliography 100 4. Equilibrium 102 4.1. Equilibriumin1dimension 103 4.2. Nashequilibriumwithnstrategies 106 4.3. ESSwithnstrategies 107 4.4. Equilibriuminmulti-populationgames 114 4.5. Fisherianrunawayequilibrium 115 4.6. Discussion 117 Appendix:TechniquestoAssessStability 118 Exercises 124 Notes 125 Bibliography 125 5. SocialGames 127 5.1. Assortativematching 128 5.2. Socialtwists 131 5.3. Inheritancefromtwoparents 135 5.4. ThestandardPriceequation 141 Contents vii 5.5. Group-structuredPriceequationandcooperation 143 5.6. Groupstructureandassortativityinlizards 145 5.7. Priceequationincontinuoustime 147 5.8. Discussion 149 Appendix:EquilibriumintheKirkpatrick(1982)model 149 Exercises 152 Notes 152 Bibliography 153 6. CellularAutomatonGames 155 6.1. SpecifyingaCA 155 6.2. Prisoner’sdilemma 158 6.3. Snowdrift 159 6.4. Publicgoodsgameswithtwostrategies 160 6.5. Spatialrock-paper-scissorsdynamic 163 6.6. Applicationtobacterialstrains 166 6.7. Buyer-Sellergameasatwo-populationCA 168 Exercises 170 Notes 171 Bibliography 172 PART TWO APPLICATIONS 7. Rock-Paper-ScissorsEverywhere 177 7.1. SomeRPStheory 178 7.2. HumansplayRPSinthelab 183 7.3. RPSmatingsystems 187 7.4. Predatorslearn 194 7.5. Aco-evolutionarymodelofpredatorsandprey 196 7.6. Discussion 203 Appendix 204 Exercises 206 Notes 208 Bibliography 209 8. LearninginGames 212 8.1. Perspectivesonlearningandevolution 213 8.2. Anempiricalexample 214 8.3. Learningrules 215 viii CONTENTS 8.4. Decisionrules 217 8.5. Estimatingamodel 219 8.6. Results 221 8.7. Learningincontinuoustime 223 8.8. Othermodelsoflearning 226 8.9. Openfrontiers 229 Appendix:Towardsmodelsoflearningincontinuoustime 231 Exercises 232 Notes 233 Bibliography 234 9. ContingentLife-CycleStrategies 236 9.1. Hawks,doves,andplasticity 238 9.2. Costlyplasticity 242 9.3. Classiclife-cycleanalysis 244 9.4. Strategiclife-cycleanalysis:Twoperiods 245 9.5. Strategiclife-cycleanalysis:Moregeneralcases 248 9.6. Application:Maleelephantseals 250 9.7. Discussion 257 Appendix:Formalizingaperfectlifetimeequilibrium 259 Exercises 261 Notes 262 Bibliography 263 10. TheBlessingandtheCurseoftheMultiplicativeUpdates 265 ManfredK.Warmuth 10.1. Demonstratingtheblessingandthecurse 266 10.2.Dispellingthecurse 270 10.3.Discussion 284 Notes 286 Bibliography 287 11. TrafficGames 290 JohnMusacchio 11.1. Simplenon-atomictrafficgames 291 11.2. Braess’sparadox 294 11.3. Thepriceofanarchywithnonlinearlatencyfunctions 296 11.4. Pigoviantaxes 298 11.5. Selfishpricing 299
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