Evolution of human impact modeling on global water resources

29 Pages·2016·18.39 MB·English

Eric Wood Symposium at Princeton University
Session 7: Human impacts on hydrologic variability and extremes, and associated
coupled human-water system feedbacks
June 2-3 2016
Keynote
Evolution of human impact modeling on
global water resources
Yoshihide Wada1,2,3,4
Marc F. P. Bierkens3,5
1NASA GISS
2CCSR, Columbia University
3Utrecht University
4IIASA
5Deltares
([email protected])
1
Number of published articles -
Human Water Use
water scarcity
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2
Pristine (climate variability) With water consumption Relative contribution
2002
2003
2001
3
Hydrological drought
Wada et al. (2013; ERL)
History of Human Water Modeling
Early developments
• Early 1970s: regional case studies of water demand and availability
(Ledger, 1972)
• Late 1980s and early 1990s: awareness of the increasing pressure on
global water resources (Falkenmark, 1989; Gleick, 1989, 1993)
• Late 1990: First detailed global water resources assessments comparing
water availability with water use (Shiklomanov, 1997) based on country
statistics of water use and observations of water availability.
• Shortly thereafter: First generation of global water models: WaterGap
(Alcamo et al.,1997), WBM (Vörösmarty et al., 1998) and MacPDM (Arnell,
1999).
• After 2000s: Increasing number of global water models (>10) with improved
processes (e.g., groundwater), and spatial resolution (e.g., hyper-resoultion)
Recent Developments
• Allocation of sectoral water use to groundwater and surface water:
• H08: First surface water, then groundwater (Hanasaki et al., 2008)
• WBMplus: first water from reservoirs and groundwater then surface
• WaterGap country-specific fractions of total water demand for
groundwater
• PCR-GLOBWB: groundwater abstractions from IGRAC
• Adding reservoirs + operations (Haddeland et al., 2006; Hanasaki et
al. 2006) + sediment transport (Vörösmarty et al. 2003, Syvitzki et
al., 2005)
• Seasonal water scarcity (Hanasaki et al., 2008; Wada et al., 2011)
• Adding hydrodynamic river routing (Yamazaki et al., 2011)
• Calculating non-renewable groundwater use (Wada et al., 2012)
• Including environmental flow requirements (Pastor et al., 2014)
• Introducing deficit irrigation (Döll et al., 2014)
• Calculating groundwater depletion (Wada et al., 2010; Pohkrel et al.,
2013, Döll et al., 2014)
• High-/Hyper-resolution modeling (Eisner, 2015; Wada et al., 2016b)
• Online coupling to climate models (Wada et al., 2016a)
Main Classification
6
Multi-model framework (ISI-MIP)
7
Evolution of Global Water Models
Bierkens (2015; WRR)
Integrating human components –
online/offline
After 2010: Integrated hydrology and water resources modelling:
reservoirs, water use and return flows, routing, monthly to daily
analyses (some at 5 arcminute resolution (10x10 km))
WaterGAP
2.2/3
PCR-GLOBWB 2.0
WBM/WBM H08
PLUS
Human
Water Use
• Livestock: Cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry
• Irrigation: Daily surface and soil water balance with irrigation losses
• Industry: GDP, Electricity production, and energy consumption with water recycling
• Households: Per capita water use and population with people access to water
Wada et al. (2013; ERL)
Livestock (Globe: 15 km3) Irrigation (Globe: 3000 km3)
million m3/year 2010
Households (Globe: 500 km3) Industry (Globe: 1000 km3)
10