Evaluation of the Effects and Consequences of Major Accidents in Industrial Plants

379 Pages·2008·6.68 MB·English

by  Joaquim Casal (Eds.)

Evaluation of the Effects
and Consequences of
Major Accidents
in Industrial Plants
Industrial Safety Series
Vol. 1. Safety of Reactive Chemicals (T. Yoshida)
Vol. 2. Individual Behaviour in the Control of Danger (A.R. Hale
and A.I. Glendon)
Vol. 3. Fluid Mechanics for Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
(T.K. Fannelöp)
Vol. 4. Thermal Hazards of Chemical Reactions (T. Grewer)
Vol. 5. Safety of Reactive Chemicals and Pyrotechnics
(T. Yoshida, Y. Wada and N. Foster)
Vol. 6. Risk Assessment and Management in the Context of the
Seveso II Directive (C. Kirchsteiger, Editor and M. Christou
and G. Papadakis, Co-editors)
Vol. 7. Critical Temperatures for the Thermal Explosion of Chemicals
(T. Kotoyori)
Vol. 8. Evaluation of the Effects and Consequences of Major Accidents
in Industrial Plants (J. Casal)
Industrial Safety Series, 8
Evaluation of the Effects
and Consequences of
Major Accidents
in Industrial Plants
Joaquim Casal
Centre for Studies on Technological Risk
Department of Chemical Engineering
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
Barcelona, Spain
Elsevier
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First edition 2008
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Printed and bound in Hungary
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For Miriam.
And for the swallows that build their nests under our roof every year.

V
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Preface
This book presents the basic aspects of the various kinds of major accidents that
can occur in industrial plants and during the transport of dangerous goods, as well as
the methods and mathematical models used to predict the effects and consequences on
buildings, equipment and the population.
The various chapters analyse leaks of dangerous substances, fires, various types of
explosion, and atmospheric dispersion of toxic or flammable products. They also
present vulnerability models that can predict the consequences of such an accident on
a sensitive element (person or equipment). The chapter dedicated to quantitative risk
analysis explains how to use the aforementioned models and methods to determine the
individual and collective risk posed by a particular plant or activity.
The study of this type of accident is a basic part of risk analysis. It is essential to
improving the safety of industry and related activities.
This eminently practical book covers basic topics that will help the reader
understand these phenomena. The calculation models included herein are relatively
simple and can be used to obtain useful, applicable results; in fact, they are often used
by professionals. In order to demonstrate how these models are used, I have applied
them to a series of examples and real-life cases.
Although these calculations are usually performed by hermetic computer codes,
strong conceptual knowledge can help us avoid the error of accepting absurd or
excessively conservative or optimistic results as correct. This is only possible if we
have a good understanding of the phenomena involved and the equations and
hypotheses of the applied models.
This book is designed for engineers working in (or who aim to work in) the risk
analysis field, students finishing an undergraduate engineering degree - fortunately,
such programmes have begun placing more emphasis on safety and risk - and
postgraduate students.
I have based this book on my professional experience and career. I would
therefore like to acknowledge some colleagues with whom I have had the pleasure of
working over the past twenty years.
I especially want to thank my friend Norberto Piccinini, a professor at the
Polytechnic University of Turin, who taught a pioneering course on risk analysis in
Spain and introduced me to the subject. I am also grateful to all those who offered
their comments and criticism on this book, especially my colleagues at the Centre for
Technological Risk Studies (CERTEC): Professors Josep Arnaldos and Eulàlia Planas
and researchers Jordi Dunjó, Mercedes Gómez-Mares, Miguel Muñoz and Adriana
Palacios. I would also like to thank Professor Juan A. Vílchez for providing very
interesting original material on quantitative risk analysis. The doctoral thesis of
Andrea Ronza has been a very useful source of information. Finally, I would like to
thank Professor Josep M. Salla, a colleague at my university, and Professor Roberto
Bubbico of La Sapienza University for their comments.
VII
Writing this book has been a personally enriching experience. I hope that it
contributes in some way to improving the safety of industrial facilities and the quality
of the environment.
Let me finish with a reflection: In the fields of accident modelling and risk
analysis, we work with a considerable degree of uncertainty. We often make up for
this by making simplifying assumptions. Even if we apply a model more or less
correctly, we may still obtain erroneous results. As in other fields of engineering,
experience and good judgement are essential.
Joaquim Casal
Barcelona
VIII
Contents

Preface v
1. Introduction 1
1. Risk 1
2. Risk analysis 2
3. Major accidents 5
3.1 Types 5
3.2 Damage 9
4. Domino effect 12
4.1 Classification of domino effects 12
4.2 An example case 12
5. Mathematical modelling of accidents 14
Nomenclature 16
References 16

2. Source term 19
1. Introduction 19
2. Liquid release 21
2.1 Flow of liquid through a hole in a tank 21
2.2 Flow of liquid through a pipe 24
2.2.1 Liquid flow rate 24
2.2.2 Friction factor 27
3. Gas/vapour release 30
3.1 Flow of gas/vapour through a hole 30
3.1.1 Critical velocity 30
3.1.2 Mass flow rate 33
3.1.3 Discharge coefficient 33
3.2 Flow of gas/vapour through a pipe 35
3.3 Time-dependent gas release 40
4. Two-phase flow 42
4.1 Flashing liquids 42
4.2 Two-phase discharge 43
5. Safety relief valves 44
5.1 Discharge from a safety relief valve 45
6. Relief discharges 47
IX