Évaluation des gains de sécurité, sécurisation des essais et analyse des accidents du véhicule ...

268 Pages·2017·6.93 MB·English

THÈSE DE DOCTORAT

de l’Université de recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres 
PSL Research University

Préparée à MINES ParisTech

Safety benefit assessment, vehicle trial safety and crash analysis
of automated driving : a Systems Theoretic approach
Evaluation des gains de sécurité, sécurisation des essais et analyse
des accidents du véhicule autonome : une approche systémique

Ecole doctorale n°432

SCIENCES ET METIERS DE L’INGENIEUR

Spécialité : SCIENCES ET GENIE DES ACTIVTES A RISQUES

COMPOSITION DU JURY:

M. Paul SALMON
University of the Sunshine Coast, Rapporteur

M. Enrico ZIO
Soutenue par Stephanie ALVAREZ Politecnico di Milano, Rapporteur 

le 27 juin 2017
M. Pierre VAN ELSLANDE

IFSTTAR, Président du jury

Mme. Nancy LEVESON
Dirigée par Franck GUARNIERI
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Examinateur

M. Franck GUARNIERI
MINES ParisTech, Examinateur

M. Yves PAGE
Renault, Membre invité

Education is the most powerful weapon which you can
use to change the world.
Nelson Mandela

In memory of my grandfather “Abuelito Augusto” who
valued knowledge and education more than anything.
Acknowledgements
I would first like to thank my two supervisors: Franck Guarnieri and Yves Page; none of this
work would have been possible without you. Franck gave me the opportunity to learn about
risk management and contributed to my research by providing useful insights while allowing
me to take my own decisions (and to make my own mistakes). Having Yves as my industrial
supervisor was an incredible experience; his guidance, commitment and kindness were
essential for the entire PhD process. Thank you for discovering the STAMP universe with me,
for treating me as an equal and for working with me as a team.
I would like to thank all the members of the examination committee who accepted to invest
their time to evaluate and discuss my research. I am hugely indebted to the two reviewers
Paul Salmon and Enrico Zio, who carefully read my thesis and gave me very interesting
feedback, which helped me to better structure the way I presented my research. Further, my
appreciation also goes out to Pierre Van Elslande whose pioneering work on human driver
error provided me with the perfect introduction into the world of road safety. Lastly, I must
acknowledge the important contribution of Nancy Leveson to my research; her work
challenged (and changed) my view of safety. Thank you for allowing me to participate in
STAMP workshops, to visit your lab and to attend to some of your classes.
My thanks also extend to Renault, to the Centre of research on Risks and Crises (CRC), and to
all the people within these two organizations that I had the chance of meeting during my
thesis. I am particularly grateful to my colleagues at the User Experience department; they
completely accepted an intruder who was unfamiliar to human factors and to sensory
analysis. Thank you all and especially Myriam, Amel, Bruno and Michèle, who kept me
motivated at all times. An immense thank you to the staff at the CRC, particularly to
Sandrine Renaux who always found a way to relieve me of administrative tasks and to make
everything work.
I will always be indebted to the staff at the Centre Européen Etudes de Sécurité et Analyse
des Risques (CEESAR) who were very kind and always willing to help. Particular thanks go to
Véronique Hervé for her assistance on the estimation of the target population and to Alain
Martin and his in-depth accident investigation team for allowing me to be on the field with
them and to learn how road crashes are currently being investigated and analyzed. All the
members of the Prospective Effectiveness Assessment for Road Safety (P.E.A.R.S) initiative
require special thanks for their openness regarding system effectiveness via virtual
simulation and their feedback on the challenges of vehicle automation. The European
STAMP community was a friendly multi-cultural environment that provided great support
both intellectually and emotionally. I am particularly grateful to Simon and Mikela for their
advises and encouragement.
This journey would have been a lot harder without all the PhD students that I had the
pleasure of meeting during my thesis. At Renault, Marlène, Aurélie, Raissa, Chunshi, Valérie,
Yrvann, Julia and Renaud, were always willing to talk about our unrelated research topics
and to provide recommendations and support. Mathilde requires special thanks for being
the ultimate “copine de thèse” and for her valuable suggestions. My short trips to the CRC
were always enjoyable thanks to the PhD students, particularly Thibaut, Clément and
Martin. Lastly, I would like to thank Andrea, Meg, Carlos and Diogo for sharing their STAMP-
knowledge and for making me feel at home during my time in Cambridge.
I am very grateful to my friends Marisol, Guillaume, Luisis and Sebas, who balanced my PhD
life with social activities. Thank you for cheering me up during all these years and for your
empathy with the difficulties of graduate school.
My family has always been an incredible support; they encouraged me to pursue a double
degree and a doctorate in France (knowing that it meant being away from them). Mom, dad
and Meli, thank you for everything, you are the key to all my accomplishments.
Finally, I will be eternally grateful to Thomas, you were my strength during the entire PhD
process. Thank you for cooking all the meals and doing everything you could to help me
focus on writing the manuscript. You listened to endless discussions about my research, you
did the proof reading of almost everything I wrote and you saw me practice the defense
presentation more than 20 times; I think that in the end you would have been able to
present my research even better than me. I would also like to thank Chantal, Olivier, Etienne
and Yann, you have always made me feel as a part of your family.
Table of Contents
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. vi
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ viii
Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Problem statement ...................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Research aims .............................................................................................................. 4
1.3 Research approach ...................................................................................................... 4
1.4 Thesis structure ........................................................................................................... 5
Chapter 2: Vehicle automation, Road Safety and Systems Theoretic approaches .................... 8
2.1 Chapter overview ........................................................................................................ 8
2.2 Vehicle automation ..................................................................................................... 9
2.2.1 Vehicle automation definition and taxonomy ..................................................... 9
2.2.2 Motivation for vehicle automation .................................................................... 15
2.2.3 Paths to vehicle automation .............................................................................. 16
2.2.4 Challenges for vehicle automation .................................................................... 17
2.3 Road safety ................................................................................................................ 20
2.3.1 Road safety as a lack of safety ........................................................................... 20
2.3.2 Road safety as a system ..................................................................................... 21
2.3.3 Road safety perspectives over time ................................................................... 24
2.3.4 Safe System approach ........................................................................................ 25
2.4 Systems theoretic approaches to safety ................................................................... 28
2.4.1 Systems theory and road safety ......................................................................... 29
2.4.2 The Risk Management Framework .................................................................... 31
i
2.4.3 Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) ............................. 34
2.4.4 Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) ............................................... 37
2.4.5 Synthesis of the systems theoretic approaches to safety.................................. 39
2.5 STAMP, STPA and CAST as the conceptual framework for the thesis ....................... 41
2.5.1 Why STAMP ........................................................................................................ 41
2.5.2 Background ......................................................................................................... 42
2.5.3 STAMP ................................................................................................................ 45
2.5.4 STPA .................................................................................................................... 50
2.5.5 CAST .................................................................................................................... 55
2.5.6 The STAMP-based approach of the thesis ......................................................... 61
Chapter 3: Examining the safety benefit assessment of automated driving systems ............. 62
3.1 Chapter overview ...................................................................................................... 62
3.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 63
3.2.1 Aim and objectives ............................................................................................. 67
3.3 Methods ..................................................................................................................... 68
3.3.1 Highway pilot system description ...................................................................... 68
3.3.2 Estimation of the target population ................................................................... 68
3.3.3 Identification of the safety requirements through STPA ................................... 68
3.3.4 Definition of questions to assist the evaluation of direct safety mechanisms .. 69
3.4 Findings ...................................................................................................................... 70
3.4.1 Highway pilot system ......................................................................................... 70
3.4.2 Target population ............................................................................................... 72
3.4.3 Safety requirements ........................................................................................... 75
3.4.4 Questions to consider in the evaluation of direct mechanisms (1-2) .............. 100
3.5 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 105
ii
3.5.1 Target population ............................................................................................. 105
3.5.2 STPA and safety requirements ......................................................................... 107
3.5.3 Questions derived from the safety requirements ........................................... 109
3.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 111
3.6.1 Future work ...................................................................................................... 112
Chapter 4: Using STPA to ensure the safety of automated driving trials .............................. 113
4.1 Chapter overview .................................................................................................... 113
4.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 114
4.2.1 Study aim and objectives ................................................................................. 115
4.3 Methods ................................................................................................................... 116
4.3.1 STPA analysis on the vehicle trial process ........................................................ 117
4.3.2 STPA analysis on an automated driving trial operation ................................... 117
4.3.3 Framework to ensure the safety of automated driving trials .......................... 118
4.4 Findings .................................................................................................................... 119
4.4.1 STPA analysis on the vehicle trial process ........................................................ 119
4.4.2 STPA analysis on an automated driving trial operation ................................... 126
4.4.3 Framework to ensure the safety of automated driving trials .......................... 133
4.5 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 145
4.5.1 The scope of the framework ............................................................................ 146
4.5.2 The contents of the framework ....................................................................... 147
4.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 148
4.6.1 Future work ...................................................................................................... 148
Chapter 5: CASCAD—an accident analysis method for crashes involving automated driving
................................................................................................................................................ 149
5.1 Chapter overview .................................................................................................... 149
iii
5.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 150
5.3 Methods ................................................................................................................... 152
5.3.1 Elements specific to road safety ...................................................................... 152
5.3.2 Elements to facilitate the application of CAST to automated driving.............. 152
5.3.3 CASCAD ............................................................................................................. 153
5.4 Findings .................................................................................................................... 153
5.4.1 Road safety-specific elements .......................................................................... 153
5.4.2 Elements to facilitate the application of CAST to automated driving.............. 167
5.4.3 CASCAD ............................................................................................................. 180
5.5 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 192
5.5.1 Elements specific to road safety from crash analysis methods ....................... 192
5.5.2 The elements to facilitate the application of CAST to automated driving....... 194
5.5.3 CASCAD ............................................................................................................. 195
5.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 196
5.6.1 Future work ...................................................................................................... 197
Chapter 6: Discussion ............................................................................................................. 199
6.1 Chapter overview .................................................................................................... 199
6.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................ 199
6.3 Contributions ........................................................................................................... 203
6.3.1 The implications of STAMP-based methods for the research questions ......... 203
6.3.2 Modeling the road transport system as a control structure ............................ 203
6.3.3 The modifications developed for the application of the systems theoretic
approach ......................................................................................................................... 206
6.3.4 Extending the scope and findings of analyses on road safety ......................... 207
6.4 Methodological considerations ............................................................................... 209
iv
6.4.1 Control structures ............................................................................................ 209
6.4.2 Validity of results .............................................................................................. 210
6.4.3 Generalization of the findings .......................................................................... 211
Chapter 7: Conclusions and future work ................................................................................ 213
7.1 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 213
7.2 Future work ............................................................................................................ 214
7.2.1 Progression from the thesis ............................................................................ 214
7.2.2 Examine new automated driving systems and new applications ................... 215
7.2.3 Encourage the adoption of a STAMP-based approach for road safety ........... 216
References .............................................................................................................................. 218
Appendix A: STPA results (chapter 3) ..................................................................................... 225
Appendix B: Results of the STPA on the vehicle trial process (chapter 4) ............................. 235
Appendix C: Results of the STPA on the vehicle trial operation (chapter 4) ......................... 240

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