European Regional Growth

436 Pages·2010·56.196 MB·English

by  Bernard Fingleton (ed.)

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pleaseseeendofthebook
Bernard Fingleton
Editor
European
Regional Growth
With 110 Figures
and66Tables
, Springer
Dr.BernardFingleton
UniversityofCambridge
DepartmentofLand Economy
19SilverStreet
CambridgeCB39EP
UK
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Preface
Looking into the future and tryingto visualize long-runregional disparities is
difficult. There is no agreed single theory to guide our modelbuilding, although
some insightcan be gained fromanalysisofthe past andby lookingat the differ
ent theoretical positions to see if there is any agreement at least in terms ofout
come ifnot intermsofmechanism. This iswhat isattemptedinthisbook, which
brings together specialists with a common interest in European regional growth
and in applying quantitative analyticaland simulation techniques in order to pro
vide differentperspectives onthe topic.ManyoftheChaptersinthebook employ
the methods of spatial econometrics. Spatial econometrics is a suite ofstatistical
andeconometrictoolsdedicatedtotheanalysisofspatialdata,inother words data
that is set within the context ofsocio-econornictheories and whichcan be repre
sented mostinformativelyinmappedform.These methodshaveemerged over the
last half-century from aseries ofinfluentialpapers and books in the fields ofre
gional science, spatial statistics and quantitative geography, and are ripe for seri
ous application inthe context oftheEU'sdevelopment. In particular theyprovide
the meansby whichto analyzespatiallyindexeddata wherethe timedimension is
essentially suppressed because, for instancethe variables of interestare not avail
able or are ofquestionable accuracy, which is often the case when one is inter
ested inregional,rather thannational,variationsacrossanumberofcountries. Ina
typical geo-econornic analysis the spatial interdependence ofregional econornies
isofparamount importance, dueforinstancetosimultaneousspillovers and exter
nalities extendingacross regionalboundaries,andcorrectestimationand inference
demands thatmodels reflect thiskindofinteraction.Moreover,unliketime,which
is usuallyofnecessityquite attenuated,space is highlydifferentiatedso that there
are numerous locationally specific observations. In other words we commonly
havea panel inwhichthenumberofseriesgreatlyoutnumbersthenumber oftime
periods, whichmay inthe extremecasebejust one or two.Panel data analysis is
also part ofspatial econometrics and panels with cross-sectional correlation are
becorning a focus ofinterest among mainstream econometricians, although typi
cally here the number oftime periods wouldbe large and the number ofregions
quitesmalI,andso giventhecurrentstateoftheartarelessappropriatetothetype
of study reported in this volume. In contrast, cross-sectional methods are more
easily adapted to a spatially exhaustive analysis ofthe EU regions. Together the
various methods ofspatial econometrics and spatial data analysis provide useful
tools for the growing number ofeconornistswho are interestedinconfronting the
emerging theories ofgeographical econornicsor quantitativeeconornicgeography
withdataasawayofimprovingtheoreticalconstructsbymeansofadded realism.
VI Preface
Realizing this project wouldhavebeen almost impossiblewithoutthe help and
stimulation provided by numerous friends and colleagues, and also without the
support ofmywifeand farnilyandmyUniversity.InparticularIwould liketo ac
knowledge the part played by theEuropeanComrnission whichprovides financial
support for COST action A17, of which I am a member of the Management
Comrnittee, and which to date has fundedmeetings inBrussels, Vanersborg, An
kara, Oslo, Barcelona and Cambridge. I would like to offer a big thanks to all
friendsandcolleagues attheseCOSTmeetingswhohavebeeninfluentialinanin
formal way, and also to those who have contributed chapters to this volume. In
addition, Iwould liketothankmanycolleaguesandfriendsinvolvedwiththeBrit
ish and Irish section ofthe Regional Science Association, the Western Regional
Science Association, theRegionalScienceAssociation International, and students
and colleagues at the Universities of Trento and Cagliari and the European Uni
versity Institute inFlorence, Italy,theFederal University ofMinas Gerais inBra
zil, the University ofCambridge, UK, the University ofCalifornia at Santa Bar
bara and MIT in Cambridge, USA,whohave, in onewayor another, allowed me
to present ideas that appear in my own contributions to this volume. Finally, I
would like to most warmly thank the Econornics editor Marianne Bopp for her
help, assistanceand veryconstructiveadviceandguidancethroughouttheproduc
tion ofthisbook. Iwouldalso liketothanktherefereeswhogaveexpert anduse
ful advice. Last but not least, I would like to thank all the contributors including
my co-authors Barry Moore, Danilo Igliori and Enrique Löpez-Bazo for their pa
tience,toleranceandenthusiasm.Theirskillinproducing rnanuscriptsthatwere of
a high quality and their willingness to keep to strict deadlines and compatible
styles has ensured the book's smoothpassage from initial conceptualization to fi
nalproduct.
BernardFingleton
CambridgeUniversity
Contents
Introduction
BERNARD FINGLETON
1 Models andSimulationsofGDPperInhabitantAcross
Europe'sRegions :APrelirninaryView 11
BERNARD FINGLETON
2 AnExploratory SpatialDataAnalysisofEuropean
RegionalDisparities, 1980-1995 55
ruus
CEMERTURAND LEGALLO
3 ASpatialEconometricAnalysisofConvergence
AcrossEuropeanRegions, 1980-1995 99
ruus
LEGALLO,CEMERTURAND CATHERINEBAUMONT
4 SpatialConvergence ClubsandtheEuropean
Regional GrowthProcess,1980-1995 131
mus
CATHERINE BAUMONT,CEMERTUR AND LEGALLO
5 SpatialDistanceinaTechnologyGapModel 159
MARJOLEIN CANIELSANDBARTVERSPAGEN
6 TheSpatialDistribution ofLabourProductivityinthe
European Regions: AStudyinSpatialEconometrics 183
ESTHER VAYAANDJORDISURINACH
7 Trade,Human CapitalandInnovation:The Enginesof
European Regional Growthinthe 1990s 215
HARALDBADINGER ANDGABRIELE TONDL
8 TheTechnology GapandEuropeanRegional
GrowthDynarnics 241
LYDIAGREUNZ
9 EmploymentGrowthofSmallComputing ServicesFirms
andtheRo1e ofHorizontalClusters:Evidence from
GreatBritain 1991-2000 267
BERNARD FINGLETON,DANILOCAMARGOIGLIORI
ANDBARRYMOORE
VIII Contents
10 Extemalities and Loeal Eeonomie Growthin
ManufaeturingIndustries 293
STEFANOUSAI AND RAFFAELEPACI
11 RegionalDisparitiesinIneome andUnernploymentinEurope 323
ADNECAPPELEN,FULVIOCASTELLACCI,
JAN FAGERBERGAND BARTVERSPAGEN
12 Regional Growth inWesternEurope:An EmpiricalExplorationof
Interaetionswith AgrieultureandAgrieulturalPolicy 351
ROGERS.BIVANDAND ROLF J.BRUNSTAD
13 Explainingthe DistributionofManufaeturingProduetivity
inthe EU Regions 375
BERNARDFINGLETONAND ENRIQUELOPEZ-BAZO
AuthorIndex 411
SubjeetIndex 419
Figures 425
Tables 429
Contributors 433
Introduction
BernardFingleton
University 0/Cambridge, UK
From the perspective ofthe Editor, Isee thisbookas aproduct ofseveral distinct
themes which have motivated and influenced the contributing authors, the out
come being some interesting and useful additions to our understanding ofEuro
pean regional growth. The first theme is the ongoing economic integration ofthe
European continent, which was initially conceived in 1950 as the European coal
and steel community under the guiding influence of Jean Monet and which today
manifests itselfmost completely in the form of the Euro-zone and by the progres
sion ofthe 'candidate' countries towards full membership ofthe EU. The move
ment towards Europeancooperationand integration overthepast half-Centuryhas
attracted the interest ofacademics, fromdiverse disciplines, whohave been eager
to analyze the assorted causes and consequences of this economic and social phe
nomenon on a truly continental scale. The contributions in this volume represent
some ofthelatest,butcertainly notthelast,words onthisimportanttopic.
From the perspective of regional economics, economic geography and regional
science, the issues ofsubstance relate strongly to the regional implications ofthe
removal oftrade barriers and ofcommon interest rates'. In particular, when one
looks from amore micro-level orregionalperspective,theone-size-fits-all interest
rate policy evidently has implications thatcaHfor compensating instruments, since
regions are highly differentiated perhaps inaway thatnational economies are not,
and the exposure ofsome regions toasymmetric shocks, often inthe form of job
destroying impulses,with no recourse to different interest and therefore exchange
rates, may be a cost too great to bear irrespective ofthebenefits. Even ifwe were
to smooth away regional specificities so that symmetric shocks became more
prevalent, unemployment would remain a threat, the argument being that with a
common interest rate andmore-synchronised regional business cycles, Europe asa
whole wouldbe more volatile andsubject tojobthreatening interest and exchange
rate fluctuations via-ä-vis other currencies.These considerations mean that unem
ployment, whether manifest in official statistics or concealed in the form ofwith-
drawal or exclusion from the labour market-, which remains the EU's major eco
nomicproblem, willalmostundoubtedly continue tobeaseriousconcern.
SeeKing(1997).
I
2 In the UK, in the former coalfields,job losses were not matched by rises in unemploy
ment,partlybecausemanymenofworkingagebecamesicknessbenefitc1aimants.