European Energy Studies Volume II: EU Energy Innovation Policy Towards 2050 (European Energy Studies series, 2)

323 Pages·2013·233.438 MB·English

by  Jean-Michel Glachant (editor), Nicole Ahner (editor), Leonardo Meuss (editor)

EEuurrooppeeaann EEnneerrggyy SSttuuddiieess
Written by
ISABEL AZEVEDO
RONNIE BELMANS
CHRISTOPHE BONNERY
JACQUELINE BOUCHER
LOREN C. COX
LAURENT DAVID
WILLIAM D. D’HAESELEER
HELEN DONOGHUE
JEAN-MICHEL GLACHANT
MANFRED HAFNER
CLAUDE HENRY
CHRISTIAN VON HIRSCHHAUSEN
EU ENERGY INNOVATION
POLICY TOWARDS 2050
GUNNAR LUNDBERG
CLAUDIO MARCANTONINI
Edited by LEONARDO MEEUS
JEAN-MICHEL GLACHANT ANNE NEUMANN
WILLIAM J. NUTTALL
NICOLE AHNER
LUIS OLMOS
LEONARDO MEEUS
IGNACIO PÉREZ-ARRIAGA
MARCO PIREDDA
PIPPO RANCI
SOPHIA RUESTER
MARCELO SAGUAN
CHRISTOF SCHOSER
GIUSEPPE TRIBUZI
EU Energy Innovation Policy Towards 2050

EU Energy Innovation Policy Towards 2050

Edited by

Jean-Michel Glachant
Nicole Ahner
Leonardo Meeus

Written by

Isabel Azevedo Claudio Marcantonini
Ronnie Belmans Leonardo Meeus
Christophe Bonnery Anne Neumann
Jacqueline Boucher William J. Nuttall
Loren C. Cox Luis Olmos
Laurent David Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga
William D. D’haeseleer Marco Piredda
Helen Donoghue Pippo Ranci
Jean-Michel Glachant Sophia Ruester
Manfred Hafner Marcelo Saguan
Claude Henry Christof Schoser
Christian von Hirschhausen Giuseppe Tribuzi
Gunnar Lundberg

CLAEYS & CASTEELS
2012
All views expressed are strictly personal.
The opinions expressed in individual chapters are those of the author in question.
© 2012 by the authors
ISBN 978 90 816 904 30 (Cloth)
ISBN 978 94 916 731 15 (PDF)
All rights reserved. This publication, in whole or in part, may not be copied,
reproduced nor transmitted in any form without the written permission of the
copyright holder and the publisher. Applications to copy, transmit or reproduce any
part of this work may be made to the publisher.
Published in 2012 by
Claeys & Casteels Publishing bv
Deventer (The Netherlands) – Leuven (Belgium)
P.O. Box 2013
7420 AA Deventer
The Netherlands
Table of contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword ………………………………………………………………………….. 1
Christof Schoser

Notes on the contributors ……..…………………………………………………… 3

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 13
Jean-Michel Glachant, Nicole Ahner, Leonardo Meeus

PART I 2050 ENERGY ROADMAP:
ENERGY POLICY & INNOVATION

1. Energy Roadmap 2050 ……………………………………………………….. 17
Helen Donoghue

2. How half baked information generates considerable uncertainty
for the industry on a quite important subject! ………………………….……... 27
Jacqueline Boucher

PART II REVISITING EU ENERGY POLICY AND
INNOVATION IN THE 2050 CONTEXT

3. Transition towards a low carbon energy system by 2050: what role for the EU? .. 37
Leonardo Meeus, Isabel Azevedo, Claudio Marcantonini, Jean-Michel Glachant,
Manfred Hafner

4. Supporting clean energy RD&D: grants for all? ………………………………. 75
Sophia Ruester, Luis Olmos

5. Smart regulation for smart grids ……………………………………………… 87
Leonardo Meeus, Marcelo Saguan, Jean-Michel Glachant, Ronnie Belmans

PART III ACADEMIC VISIONS OF THE
FUTURE GENERATION PORTFOLIO

Preface ……………………………………………………………………… 115
Pippo Ranci
Table of contents

6. The ideal portfolio today and in 2030 ……………………………………….. 119
William J. Nuttall

7. The ideal portfolio today and in 2030 ……………………………………….. 131
Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga

PART IV REVISITING THE ROLE OF OIL, COAL, GAS
AND CCS IN THE CONTEXT OF RES EXPANSION

Preface ………………………………………………....................................... 141
Gunnar Lundberg

8. Outlook – the role of oil, coal, gas and CCS: some reflections ……………… 145
William D. D’haeseleer

9. Fossil fuel availability until 2050 – the real shortage will be the CO budget …. 155
2
Christian von Hirschhausen, Clemens Haftendorn, Tim Winke, Anne Neumann

PART V US ENERGY TECHNOLOGY POLICY

Preface ……………………………………………………………………. 171
Claude Henry

10. US energy technology policy (or policy makers as Sisyphus) ……………….. 173
Loren C. Cox

PART VI INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE

11. Three bits of good news and three bits of bad news ………………………… 189
Christophe Bonnery

12. How to get on the right pathway for a sustainable mix in 2050 ……………… 191
Laurent David

13. Natural gas and renewables: a complementary future ………………………... 195
Marco Piredda

14. And again: three bits of good news and three bits of bad news ……………… 201
Giuseppe Tribuzi
Table of contents

APPENDICES

Appendix I ……………………………………………………….…………… 205
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council,
the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions
Energy Roadmap 2050
COM(2011) 885/2

Appendix II ……………………………………………………….…………… 227
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council,
the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions
A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
COM(2011) 112/4

Appendix III ………………………………………….………….…………… 243
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council,
the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions
Investing in the Development of Low Carbon Technologies (SET-Plan)
COM(2009) 519

Appendix IV …………………………………………………….…………… 259
Commission staff working document
A Technology Roadmap for the Communication on Investing in the
Development of Low Carbon Technologies (SET-Plan)
SEC(2009) 1295

Foreword

Foreword1

The year 2050 lies a long way ahead of us, 39 years to be precise. Apart
from science fiction writers, few have ventured to imagine the future so far
ahead. By comparison, when George Orwell published his classic science
fiction novel Nineteen Eighty-Four in 1949 he envisaged the future a mere
35 years ahead.

The length of the time period we are looking at becomes even more
illustrative when looking at the energy situation 39 years ago. In 1972, the
first oil shock was still to come. Oil was abundant and cheap with a price of
around two US dollars per barrel, about 10 dollars in today's money. There
was also a boom in nuclear power with the promise to provide households
and industry with reliable and cheap electricity. Who, at the time, would
have thought of the subsequent oil crises and the nuclear incidents of
Chernobyl and Fukushima and who would have predicted the rise of natural
gas and renewable energy sources?

These examples show the magnitude of the challenge to envisage the future
in 2050 and to try to draw conclusions for energy policy. They remind us to
proceed with this task with a certain degree of prudence.

Nonetheless, there are good reasons to undertake this exercise and to dare
to look into the crystal ball. In the energy sector, arguably more than in any
other sector of the economy, the time horizon of investments is measured
in decades rather than years, just as the investment sums are measured in
billions rather than millions. Consider for example the lifetimes and payback
periods of coal and nuclear power plants, pipelines and cable networks,
LNG terminals and biofuels production facilities, building retrofits and
offshore wind parks. Moreover, the seeds of tomorrow's harvest are sown
today. In other words, new energy technologies also have to be developed
over several decades to achieve market maturity and large scale deployment.

1 The views expressed by the author are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of the
European Commission.

1