Francesco M. Bongiovanni Europe and the End of the Age of Innocence Francesco M. Bongiovanni http://www.francescobauthor.com ISBN 978-3-319-74369-1 e-ISBN 978-3-319-74370-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74370-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018934899 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. 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Cover illustration: estherpoon/iStock/Getty; Andrew Latshaw/EyeEm/Getty Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Endorsements For Europe And The End Of The Age Of Innocence ‘The European Union’s mood has improved as its economies pick up, the euro crisis fades, migration and terrorism fears pass and even Brexit no longer provokes concern. In his new book, Francesco Bongiovanni warns against complacency. The gap between Europe’s elites and its citizens is glaring; north-south and east- west tensions persist; the euro and migration crises could easily return. All this makes plans to build a united states of Europe wholly unrealistic. His gloomy message should be heeded, especially in Brussels, Berlin and Paris.’ —John Peet, Political Editor, The Economist ‘Severe but necessary. An extreme lucidity that should bring Europe, through its ever-closer union, to political initiatives able to safeguard its traditional values and new common interests in the midst of an inescapable universal revolution.’ —Georges Berthoin, Former chief of staff of Jean Monnet—a founding father of Europe—former High Representative of the European Economic Community with the United Kingdom ‘Europe—as presently constructed—is no longer fit for purpose. With his trademark style, Bongiovanni takes an unflinching look at what led the continent to this moment. Do not read this book if you’re optimistic about Europe’s future—but read this book if you care about that future.’ —Ian Bremmer, President and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm ‘Francesco Bongiovanni’s The End of the Age of Innocence presents an unsettling but coherent view of Europe’s future. It is a view which is not usually heard in polite European circles but one which is often heard privately. Bongiovanni worries about what he sees as a fight for the soul of Europe.’ —George Yeo, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Singapore ‘Bongiovanni is right: the West in general doesn’t seem to know anymore what it stands for or where it wants to go. Europe is particularly lost and adrift. This book provides a valuable and timely wake-up call. Europeans ignore it at their own peril.’ —Kishore Mahbubani, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy NUS ‘A brilliant reconstruction of an inevitable disaster or a doomsday interpretation of the Union’s future? The analysis goes to the roots of the socio- economic European malaise that threatens our common dream, the salvation of which desperately requires acts of political bravery.’ —Leonardo Maisano, European affairs commentator Endorsements For The Decline And Fall Of Europe : ‘It has become impossible to pretend otherwise: Europe is in steep decline. The Continental dream of economic prosperity, social security and international good citizenship has given way to a nightmare of chronic unemployment, unsustainable debt, demographic decline, political paralysis and street violence. In The Decline and Fall of Europe , Francesco Bongiovanni offers the most perceptive account to date of a Europe that indulged too many illusions and is now awakening to bankruptcy.’ —Bret Stephens, Foreign Affairs Columnist, Wall Street Journal ‘Provocative and alarming, a wake-up call for the twenty-first century.’ —Nils Pratley, The Guardian ‘An important read for anyone interested in the future of Europe.’ —John Paulson, President, Paulson & Co. Inc ‘A very lively and witty survey of Europe’s ills.’ —Dominique Moisi, author of The Geopolitics of Emotions ‘A thoughtful and provocative cautionary tale that Americans should read if they want to see how our own increasing regulatory structure, accelerating entitlements, and ballooning national debt could lead to the same decline that the author so clearly describes in Europe. Francesco Bongiovanni mixes common sense with an experienced eye for the details that show how utopianism overwhelmed the benign postwar vision of a united Europe and resulted in a nightmare. His description of the EU bureaucracy as an organization of 40,000 souls, a budget of 126 billion Euros, and the ambition to control every part of European life is lamentable proof of Kafka’s vision.’ —John Lehman, Former Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan Administration and a member of the 9/11 Commission ‘In view of the current crisis in the European Union in general and the Euro zone in particular, the arrival of this book could not be more timely. It is a comprehensive review of the way the initial favourable development of the EU has gone wrong and the range of problems it currently faces. Should be read by every MP in the Union’s 27 countries!’ —Stephen Valdez, author of An Introduction to Global Financial Markets ‘Revealing. A valuable tool for those who are interested in understanding the roots of the current Eurocrisis and for decision-makers engaged in limiting its bitter consequences.’ —Lucio Caracciolo, Limes, Italian Review of Geopolitics , Editor-in-chief This book is dedicated to all of you, people of goodwill and reason, who seem to be fewer and fewer. You have the right to know and the duty to try to understand. About the Author Francesco M. Bongiovanni has lived in Europe, Asia, the USA and in the Arab world. He holds an MBA from Harvard and a doctorate in engineering. A former investment banker, he subsequently worked as an entrepreneur and as an advisor in strategy and finance. He has been made a Knight of the Order of St Charles for his contribution to humanitarian and biodiversity protection endeavours. He is an author and a composer of classical symphonic music and jazz. Contents 1 Introduction Part I The Trilogy 2 The Awakening 3 The Tsunami 4 Barbarians in the City 5 The Rise of Alternative Politics 6 Ensuring the Survival of a ‘Europe of Values’ Part II A Brief History of How to Mess Things Up 7 The Island That Couldn’t Get Far Enough 8 Uber Alles? Not So Fast! 9 The More It Changes, the More It Stays the Same 10 The Gas Wars 11 The Trump Card 12 Conclusion Sources and Acknowledgements Bibliography Index © The Author(s) 2018 Francesco M. Bongiovanni, Europe and the End of the Age of Innocence, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3- 319-74370-7_1 1. Introduction Francesco M. Bongiovanni1 (1) http://www.francescobauthor.com Any fool can know. The point is to understand. Albert Einstein Apart from deserving my gratitude, anyone who read my first book, The Decline and Fall of Europe , is entitled to ask whether this sequel is really justified. Have things changed so much since the book was published in 2012 that a new one is necessary, or is this just the old dish being warmed up? To this legitimate question the returning reader needs a clear answer—as much as I needed one before deciding to embark on this new writing adventure. The fact is, sadly, that there have been dramatic new developments—most as sudden as they were unexpected—which have caused Europe to find itself today on a significantly more worrisome trajectory than the one I had anticipated in my first book. Interestingly, some of the people who, back then, suggested that The Decline and Fall of Europe was too pessimistic now say it was perhaps not pessimistic enough. This change in mood reflects the simple truth that, since 2012, the situation in Europe has considerably deteriorated across many dimensions and the changes are starting to directly and visibly affect a vast number of people. On top of a general worsening in ways that had largely been predicted at the time, new developments have piled up that may take the continent into uncharted, dangerous territory. I am therefore afraid that the answer to the above question is that it is high time to re-examine the situation in Europe . The Decline and Fall of Europe was intended to be a 360 degree tour, offering a balanced description of the European ‘system’ and of the intractable challenges facing Europe, which were leading to inexorable decline across any
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