Euro Crash Also by Brendan Brown BUBBLES IN CREDIT AND CURRENCY WHAT DRIVES GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS? EURO ON TRIAL THE YO-YO YEN THE FLIGHT OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MONETARY CHAOS IN EUROPE Euro Crash The Implications of Monetary Failure in Europe Brendan Brown © Brendan Brown 2010 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 978-0-230-22910-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-31047-0 ISBN 978-0-230-27492-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230274921 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 To the memory of Irene Brown This page intentionally left blank Contents Acknowledgements viii 1 Euro Indictment 1 2 Origins of the Euro-Bubble 48 3 The Bursting of the Bubble 82 4 The Trial 121 5 What Remedies? 161 Bibliography 203 Index 206 vii Acknowledgements Elizabeth V. Smith, a graduate from University College London, pro- vided invaluable help in research, in toiling through the manuscript at its various stages of preparation and in checking the proofs. viii 1 Euro Indictment The global credit bubble and its bursting during the first decade of the twenty-first century set off a search for the culprits. The investigation is fundamentally historical rather than criminal. The actions and flaws of institutions and individuals are coming under scrutiny. The inves- tigators are also turning to wider social and economic forces which in combination might have been responsible for the disaster. A search for the causes of economic and financial breakdown has some similarity with the pursuit of blame for the eruption of war. The analogy is only partial because investigations into the breakdown of peace can lead to indictments of war guilt. The identified person or organization could be due for punishment (sometimes posthumously in a purely hypothetical court process) for crimes against humanity or lesser charges. Crime and punishment is not at issue in the investigation of economic debacle. In general, blundering central bankers and finance ministers did not deliberately or knowingly stoke up the possibility of economic calam- ity in a wager from which there could have been handsome national (and personal) gains. Perhaps some of the economic policymakers at a rare moment during the phase of stimulus might have had a fleeting insight as to how things might all go very wrong. Maybe they should have acted on those insights by the exercise of greater caution. Even so there was no target for their recklessness – no designated victim to pay for the potential gains, no enemy to be vanquished. The main purpose of the investigation into economic calamity – and this is also an important purpose in war investigations – is the exposure of frailties and fault lines which allowed the catastrophe to occur. The hope of many investigators is that a better understanding of what went 1