Policy Studies 68 Ethnic Policy in China: Is Reform Inevitable? James Leibold Ethnic Policy in China Is Reform Inevitable? About the East-West Center The East-West Center promotes better relations and understanding among the people and nations of the United States, Asia, and the Pacific through cooperative study, research, and dialogue. Established by the US Congress in 1960, the Center serves as a resource for infor- mation and analysis on critical issues of common concern, bringing people together to exchange views, build expertise, and develop policy options. The Center’s 21-acre Honolulu campus, adjacent to the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, is located midway between Asia and the US main- land and features research, residential, and international conference facilities. The Center’s Washington, DC, office focuses on preparing the United States for an era of growing Asia Pacific prominence. The Center is an independent, public, nonprofit organization with funding from the US government, and additional support provided by private agencies, individuals, foundations, corporations, and govern- ments in the region. Policy Studies an East-West Center series Series Editors Edward Aspinall and Dieter Ernst Description Policy Studies presents scholarly analysis of key contemporary domestic and international political, economic, and strategic issues affecting Asia in a policy relevant manner. Written for the policy community, aca- demics, journalists, and the informed public, the peer-reviewed publi- cations in this series provide new policy insights and perspectives based on extensive fieldwork and rigorous scholarship. The East-West Center is pleased to announce that the Policy Studies series has been accepted for in- dexing in Web of Science Book Citation Index. The Web of Science is the largest and most com- prehensive citation index available. Notes to Contributors Submissions may take the form of a proposal or complete manuscript. For more information on the Policy Studies series, please contact the Series Editors. Editors, Policy Studies East-West Center 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96848-1601 Tel: 808.944.7197 [email protected] EastWestCenter.org/PolicyStudies Policy Studies 68 Ethnic Policy in China Is Reform Inevitable? James Leibold Copyright © 2013 by the East-West Center Ethnic Policy in China: Is Reform Inevitable? James Leibold ISSN 1547-1349 (print) and 1547-1330 (electronic) ISBN 978-0-86638-233-5 (print) and 978-0-86638-234-2 (electronic) The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Center. Hard copies of all titles, and free electronic copies of most titles, are available from: Publication Sales Office East-West Center 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96848-1601 Tel: 808.944.7145 Fax: 808.944.7376 [email protected] EastWestCenter.org/PolicyStudies In Asia, hard copies of all titles, and electronic copies of select South- east Asia titles, co-published in Singapore, are available from: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Pasir Panjang Road, Singapore 119614 [email protected] bookshop.iseas.edu.sg Contents List of Acronyms ix Executive Summary xi Introduction 1 Scope and Aims 3 Current Policy and Perceived Shortcomings 5 Three Key Policy Planks 6 Policy Shortcomings 8 “China’s 9/11”: The Ürümqi Riots 10 Making Sense of Recent Unrest 11 The Reform Agenda and Discontents 13 Ma Rong’s Case for Reform 14 A Second Generation of Ethnic Policies? 19 The “Minzu Establishment” Responds 22 Gauging Public Opinion: Right, Left, and Center 25 The Chinese Liberals 27 The Chinese Left and Ultra-Nationalists 33 Broader Public Opinion 38 Direction of Ethnic Policy under Xi Jinping 41 Zhu Weiqun’s “Personal Opinion” 41 Hu Jintao’s Legacy and Personnel Changes 43 Xi’s Chinese Dream and Ethnic Policy 47 Concluding Thoughts 50 Endnotes 53 Bibliography 55 Acknowledgments 67