estonia's fifth national communication

198 Pages·2010·2.86 MB·English

ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL
COMMUNICATION
Under the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Estonia, December 2009
ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
Composed by:
Tarmo Pauklin Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Inga Kindsigo Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Eve Tamme Estonian Environment Information Centre
Kai Luht Estonian Environment Information Centre
Sulev Soosaar Tallinn University of Technology
Ott Roots Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Eve-Liis Abroi Estonian University of Life Sciences
Ain Kallis Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Kalju Eerme Tartu Observatory
Jüri Elken Tallinn University of Technology, Marine Systems Institute
Marko Kaasik University of Tartu, Faculty of Science and Technology, Institute of Physics,
Laboratory of Physics of Atmosphere
Tiit Kallaste SEI Tallinn
Silja Moik Estonian Science Foundation
Joel Petersoo Ministry of Education and Research
Antti Roose University of Tartu, Department of Geography
Tarmo Soomere Tallinn University of Technology, Institute of Cybernetics
Ülo Suursaar University of Tartu, Marine Institute
Ulvi Tuisk Environmental Investment Centre
Olaf Terno Tallinn University of Technology
Matti Viisimaa Estonian Environment Information Centre
Lauri Klein Estonian Environment Information Centre
Luule Sakkeus Tallinn University, Institute of Estonian Demography
Karel Lember Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communication
Enn Pärt Centre of Forest Protection and Silviculture
Katrin Rannik Ministry of Agriculture
Aret Vooremäe Ministry of Agriculture
Ene Kriis Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Inari Truumaa Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Photos Tõnis Saadoja, Andre Zahharov, Aiki Jõgeva
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Ministry of the Environment Estonian Environmental Research Centre
Narva mnt 7a Marja 4d
15172 Tallinn 10617, Tallinn,
Estonia Estonia
[email protected] [email protected]

ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
Table of Contents
Abbreviations 6
Foreword 8
I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
1.1. Introduction 12
1.2. National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals 12
1.3. Greenhouse gas inventory information 14
1.4. Policies and measures 16
1.5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 18
1.6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 19
1.7. Financial resources and transfer of technology 21
1.8. Research and systematic observation 21
1.9. Education, training and public awareness 21
II NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES RELEVANT TO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
AND REMOVALS 23
2.1. Government structure 24
2.1.1. Implementation of climate policy within the government structure 25
2.2. Population profile 26
2.3. Geographic profile 28
2.4. Climate profile 29
2.5. Economic profile 31
2.6. Energy 33
2.7. Transportation 35
2.8. Industry 36
2.9. Waste 38
2.10. Building stock and urban structure 39
2.11. Agriculture 41
2.12. Forest 42
References 44
III GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY INFORMATION, INCLUDING INFORMATION ON
NATIONAL SYSTEMS AND NATIONAL REGISTRIES 45
3.1. Introduction 46
3.2. Summary tables, trends in emissions 46
3.3. Emissions by sector 48
3.3.1. Energy 48
3.3.2. Industrial processes 49
3.3.3. Agriculture 51
3.3.4. LULUCF 53
3.3.5. Waste 51
3.4. National systems in accordance with Article 5, paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol 55
3.5. National registry 59
References 65
IV POLICIES AND MEASURES 63
4.1. Policy-making process 64
4.2. Legislation, strategy documents and programmes 66
4.2.1. International agreements and conventions, EU legislation 66
4.2.2. Strategy documents 68
4.2.3. Legislation 69
4.2.4. Joint implementation and emission trading 72
4.2.4.1. Joint implementation 73
4.2.4.2. International emission trading 74
4.2.5. Information on activities under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 75
4.3. Policies and measures 75
4.3.1. Cross-cutting measures 75
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4.3.1.1. National programmes 75
4.3.1.2. Fiscal measures 79
4.3.2. Energy supply 81
4.3.2.1. General strategy documents 81
4.3.2.2. Electricity generation 84
4.3.2.3. Heat production 89
4.3.3.4. Energy consumption – industry 90
4.3.4. Energy consumption – residential, commercial and other sectors 92
4.3.5. Energy consumption – transport 96
4.3.6. Agriculture 98
4.3.7. Waste 101
4.3.8. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) 102
4.4. Policies and measures expired or repealed during the reporting period 104
V PROJECTIONS AND THE TOTAL EFFECT OF POLICIES AND MEASURES,
AND SUPPLEMENTARITY RELATING TO THE KYOTO PROTOCOL MEASURES 106
5.1. Introduction 107
5.2. Scenarios 107
5.2.1. Basic considerations 107
5.2.2. With measures scenario for 2006–2020 108
5.2.2.1. Scenario formulation 108
5.2.2.2. The starting points of the WM Scenario 109
5.2.2.2.1. Starting situation in Estonian energy sector in 2006 109
5.2.2.2.2. Data used in the runs 109
5.2.2.2.3. Discount rates 109
5.2.2.2.4. Prices of fossil fuels 110
5.2.2.2.5. Demographic assumptions and macroeconomic outlook 110
5.2.2.3. Total consumption of energy 111
5.2.2.4. Total consumption and production of electricity 111
5.2.2.5. Greenhouse gas emissions 113
5.2.2.5.1. Summary of total emissions 113
5.2.2.5.2. Energy-based carbon dioxide emissions 114
5.2.2.5.3. CO emissions from the Industrial Processes sector 115
2
5.2.2.5.4. Methane 115
5.2.2.5.5. Nitrous oxide 116
5.2.2.5.6. F-gases 117
5.2.3. With additional measures scenario for 2006–2020 117
5.2.3.1. Description of the scenario “With Additional Measures” 117
5.2.3.1.1. Energy 118
5.2.3.1.2. Emissions from the Industrial Processes sector 119
5.2.3.2. Summary of emissions 199
5.2.4. Comparison of the WM and WAM Scenarios 120
5.2.5. Considerations of sensitivity 122
5.2.5.1. Rough comparison of GHG emissions of both scenarios 122
5.2.5.2. Another approach to the sensitivity analysis methodology 122
5.2.5.3. Sensitivity analysis results 123
5.2.6. Projections of the total aggregated GHG emissions 124
5.3. Supplementarity relating to mechanisms under Article 6, 12 and 17, of the Kyoto Protocol 126
5.4. Methodology 126
5.4.6. Description of the NEEDS model 127
5.4.1.1. System part of the model 127
References 131
VI VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND
ADAPTATION MEASURES 132
6.1. Introduction 133
6.2. Estonia’s climate – observed changes 133
6.2.1. Changes in temperature 133
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6.2.3. Changes in snow cover 134
6.2.4. Changes in wind 134
6.2.5. Extreme weather events 135
6.3. Expected impacts of climate change 135
6.3.1. Coastal areas 135
6.3.1.1. Storm of January 9, 2005 136
6.3.2. Rivers and lakes 139
6.3.3. Groundwater 140
6.3.4. Water management 141
6.3.5. Forestry 141
6.3.6. Agriculture 142
6.3.7. Peatlands 143
6.3.8. Human health 144
6.3.9. Tourism 144
6.4. Adaptation measures 145
6.4.1. National level activities 145
6.4.2. Local level activities 146
References 148
VII FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY, INCLUDING INFORMATION
UNDER ARTICLES 10 AND 11 OF KYOTO PROTOCOL 150
VIII RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION 152
8.1. General policy on research and systematic observation 153
8.2. Research 157
8.3. Systematic observation 157
8.3.1. Atmospheric climate observing systems, including those measuring atmospheric constituents 159
8.3.2. Ocean climate observing systems 162
8.3.3. Terrestrial climate observing systems 164
8.4. Support for developing countries 164
References: 165
IX EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS 171
9.1. Public awareness of climate change 172
9.2. Public access to environmental information 174
9.3. Activities by the Estonian Government 175
9.4. Educational system 176
9.5. NGOs 178
9.6. Public information campaigns 179
9.7. Participation in international activities 181
References 183
ANNEX I. 185
ANNEX II. 200
ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
Abbreviations
ASTRA- Developing Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea
Region
BAT- Best Available Technique
CFBC- Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion
CHP- Combined Heat and Power
CITL- Community Independent Transaction Log
CRF- Common Reporting Format
DES- Data Exchange Standards
DH- District Heating
EC- European Commission
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts;
EEIC- Estonian Environment Information Centre
EERC- Estonian Environmental Research Centre
EGM- Estonian Green Movement
ELV - End-of-Life Vehicle
EPBD- Energy Performance of Buildings
EU ETS- European Union Emission Trading Scheme
EU- European Union
EUMETNET- European Meteorological Services Network;
EUMETSAT- European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites;
EUSF- European Union Solidarity Fund
FADN- Farm Accountancy Data Network
FSC- Forest Stewardship Council
GDP-Gross Domestic Product
GHG- Greenhouse Gas
GLOBE- Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment
GNI- Gross National Income
GRETA- Greenhouse Gas Registry for Emission Trading Arrangements
GWP- Global Warming Potential
HIRLAM – High Resolution Limited Area Model;
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITL- International Transaction Log
LULUCF- Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MBT- Mechanical-Biological Treatment
MoE- Ministry of the Environment
NAO- National Audit Office
NFI- National Forest Inventory
ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
NGO- Non-Governmental Organization
NIR- National Inventory Report
NORDRAD- Nordic Weather Radar Network
PEFC- Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification Schemes
PP- Power Plant
QA/QC- Quality Assurance/Quality Control
RDF- Refuse Derived Fuel (waste fuel)
SEI- Stockholm Environment Institute
TUT- Tallinn University of Technology
UNESCO- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNICEF- United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund
WEEE- Waste Electric and Electronic Equipment
ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
Foreword
I am delighted to present Estonia’s Fifth National Communication under the Framework
Convention on Climate Change.
The Fifth National Communication reflects the developments that have taken place in the relevant
fields of activity during the reporting period. The Communication is the result of cooperation
between Estonian governmental bodies and experts.
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects
that, without further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the global average surface
temperature is likely to rise by a further 1.8-4.0°C in this century, and by up to 6.4°C in the
worst case scenario. In order to achieve a reduction of 2°C for the average surface temperature,
all developed countries will have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 25–40% by 2020
compared to the 1990 baseline, by 80-95% by 2050, and to rearrange their economies during the
coming decades so that global emissions are reduced by at least 50% by 2050.
The European Union has set a goal to keep the lead role in combating climate change and not let
the average surface temperature rise more than 2 ºC, compared to pre-industrial times.
Over the last years, considerable efforts have been made in Europe to mitigate and adapt to
the occurring climate change. At the end of 2008, the member states of the European Union
agreed on the "Climate action and renewable energy package", which commits the member
states to reducing their overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below the 1990
levels by 2020. The EU is also ready to scale up this reduction to 30% when other countries
make comparable efforts under a new global climate change agreement. The climate and
energy package sets out the contribution expected from each Member State to meet these
targets and proposes a series of measures to help achieve them. It has also set itself the
target of increasing the share of renewables in energy use to 20% by 2020. Estonia’s share
of renewable energy will have to be 25% by year 2020.
Estonia signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 1992 and acceded
to the Kyoto protocol in 1998, taking the responsibility to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions
by 8% as compared to 1990.
Estonia has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by almost 50% compared to the base year
1990. In 1990, the emissions amounted to 41,935 thousand tonnes in CO equivalents and in
2
ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
2007 the corresponding figure was 22,018 thousand tonnes, thus there has been a reduction of
47.5%. Estonia has implemented joint implementation projects, the EU emission trading scheme
and is also active in the international emissions trading system.
The Estonian Government will continue its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the
national and international level and is also contributing to the financial schemes to support the
climate related activities of developing countries. Two important strategic documents for future,
the National Development Plan for Energy Sector until 2020 and National Development Plan for
Electricity Sector until 2018 were prepared in 2008-2009. These plans define Estonia’s energy
sector: to ensure a steady, efficient, environment benign energy supply with reasonable prices,
while also ensuring the sustainable use of energy to decrease electrical energy production from
oil shale and an increase in the proportion of other sources of energy. There are many measures
taken that will impact the emissions in future.
In addition to tangible emission cuts from industry, the Government will continue investing in
research and development, focusing on renewable energy and energy saving activities, keeping
up with climate friendly forest management and giving a clear signal to industry that it is essential
to invest in alternative technologies.
Tallinn, December 2009
Jaanus Tamkivi
Minister of the Environment
ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ESTONIA’S FIFTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
11
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