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Estimation and Analysis of Insect Populations: Proceedings of a Conference held in Laramie, Wyoming, January 25–29, 1988 PDF

499 Pages·1989·11.671 MB·English
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Lecture Notes in Statistics Edited by J. Berger, S. Fienberg, J. Gani, K. Krickeberg, and B. Singer 55 L. McDonald B. Manly J. Lockwood J. Logan (Eds.) Estimation and Analysis of Insect Populations Proceedings of a Conference held in Laramie, Wyoming, January 25-29, 1988 Spri nger-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo Honq Konq Editors Lyman L. McDonald Departments of Statistics and Zoology University of Wyoming Laramie, WY 82071, USA Bryan F. J. Manly Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Otago Dunedin, New Zealand Jeffrey A. Lockwood Department of Plant, Soil and Insect Sciences University of Wyoming Laramie, WY 82071, USA Jesse A. Logan Departments of Entomology and Forestry Virginia Polytechnic Institute Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA Mathematical Subject Classification Codes: 62P 10 ISBN-13: 978-0-387-96998-5 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4612-3664-1 001: 10.1007/978-1-4612-3664-1 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its version of June 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989 2847/3140-543210 Preface The papers in this volume were presented at a symposium/workshop on "The Estimation and Analysis of Insect Populations" that was held at the University of Wyoming, Laramie, in January, 1988. The meeting was organized with financial support from the United States - New Zealand Cooperative Science Program and the University of Wyoming. The purpose was to bring together approximately equal numbers of quantitative biologists and biometricians in order to (1) provide a synthesis and evaluation of currently available methods for modeling and estimating parameters of insect population, and to (2) stimulate research into new methods where this is appropriate. The symposium/workshop attracted 46 participants. There were 35 papers presented in four subject areas: analysis of stage-frequency data, modeling of population dynamiCS, analysis of spatial data, and general sampling and estimation methods. New results were presented in all these areas. All except one of the papers is included in the present volume. There were ten papers concerned with the analysis of stage-frequency data. Manly began the workshop with his review of past work in this area. His paper also discusses a new model for the estimation of the parameters of a single generation of a population based on the concept of a development variable. New single generation models were also described by Braner and Hairston, Faddy, Kemp et al., Munholland et al., and Pontius et al. Bellows et al. address the difficult problem of estimating losses from parasitism using stage-frequency and other data in a host-parasite system. Caswell and Twombly consider the estimation of stage transition matrices for cases where generations cannot be separated. Here estimates are naturally ill-eonditioned and there is interest in techniques such as ridge regression as possible ways to improve their properties. Morton and Vogt consider the problem of estimating relative recapture rates for blowflies of different ages and development stages. Again ill-conditioning problems are apparent. Schneider proposes a computer-intensive approach for estimating parameters for a nematode population. There were 12 papers on various aspects of modeling of population dynamics. Manly reviews development in key factor analysis and proposed a test for delayed density-dependent mortality with data consisting of stage-based life tables from a series of successive generations. Allen shows that natural enemy populations can easily display chaotic behavior. Carey presents a demographic framework for the analysis of cohort life IV histories, and discusses the modeling of harvesting and two sexes. Dennis reviews the use of stochastic differential equations for population modeling. Dianmo and Chang review a number of approaches for modeling single species populations. Fargo and Woodson note the potential use of the computer language SLAM for simulating insect populations. Lih and Stephen describe SPBMODEL, a computer simulation model that predicts infestation rates of the southern pine beetle. Lockwood and Lockwood show that some aspects of grasshopper population dynamics can be described by a cusp catastrophe. Logan discusses the composite modeling approach to population analysis which involves first developing a complex realistic model which is then simplified until it is amenable to a mathematical analysis. Nordheim et al., consider stochastic Leslie matrix models for population development, noting that their behavior may be somewhat different from that of the equivalent deterministic models. Schaalje and van der Vaart, and Smerage address the relationship between alternative models for the development of populations with a stage structure. There were five papers concerned with various aspects of the analysis of spatial data. Hutcheson and Lyons discuss the analysis of quadrat counts in two papers. Johnson describes two modeling methods for testing hypotheses concerning the relationship between grasshopper densities and soil type in southern Alberta. Liebhold and Elkinton show how classical key factor analysis can be extended for studying life tables determined for different locations in space as well as different generations. Willson and Young present a model for arthropod movement that accounts for the negative binomial distributions often observed for counts. The final section consists of eight papers on various types of statistical analysis and sampling problems. Blough discusses the analysis of the time series of trapping records of the pink bollworm moth from a cotton field in southern Arizona, in terms of the relationship of this series with amounts of irrigation water and the times when insecticide was applied. Buonaccorsi and Liebhold review statistical methodologies appropriate for estimating gypsy moth numbers from the ratio of mean frass drop from a forest canopy to the mean frass production from caged larvae. Burnham reviews recent developments in the analysis of population parameters from capture-recapture data. Cooper, Ellington et al., and Morrison et al., address various aspects of sampling designs. Gates describes a computer program DISCRETE that can be used to fit a variety of discrete distributions to v data. McDonald and Manly discuss ways in which biased sampling procedures can be calibrated, as in cases where the sampling fraction differs for the various development stages in a population. Lyman L. McDonald Bryan F. J. Manly Jeffrey A. Lockwood Jesse A. Logan ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In addition to the authors of the papers in this volume, a number of other people have made valuable contributions, and we would like to express our gratitude for their assistance. Our thanks are due to referees, to the Department of Statistics, University of Wyoming for both financial and moral support, to Charles Cooper and Ester Fouts, Conferences and Institutes, University of Wyoming, for hosting the conference, to Brenda Shriner and Julie Williams for clerical assistance, and especially to Lisa Eckles, Secretary for the symposium and publication of the proceedings. CONTENTS Preface ..... iii Acknowledgements . vii Contents ..... ix SECTION I ANALYSIS OF STAGE-FREQUENCY DATA. 1 A Review of Methods for the Analysis of Stage-frequency Data 3 Bryan F. J. Manly Life Tables and Parasitism: Estimating Parameters in Joint Host-Parasitoid Systems ............. . 70 T. S. Bellows, Jr., R. G. Van Driesche and J. Elkinton From Cohort Data to Life Table Parameters via Stochastic Modeling 81 Moshe Braner and Nelson G. Hairston, Jr. Estimation of Stage-Specific Demographic Parameters for Zooplankton Populations: Methods Based on Stage-Classified Matrix Projection Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Hal Caswell and Saran Twombly Compartmental Models in the Analysis of Populations ......... 108 Malcolm J. Faddy x Modeling Grasshopper Phenology with Diffusion Processes ....... 118 William P. Kemp, Brian Dennis, Patricia L. Munholland Estimation of Relative Trappabilities by Age and Development Delays of Released Blowflies .................... 128 Richard Morton and W. G. Vogt A Stochastic Model for Insect Life History Data ........... 136 P. L. Munholland, J. D. Kalbfleisch and B. Dennis Nonparametric Estimation of Insect Stage Transition Times ...... 145 Jeffrey S. Pontius, John E. Boyer, Jr., and Michael L. Deaton Problems Associated with Life Cycle Studies of a Soil-Inhabiting Organism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 S. M. Schneider SECTION II MODELING OF POPULATION DYNAMICS ...... 167 A Review of Methods for Key Factor AnalY3is ............. 169 Bryan F. J. Manly Are Natural Enemy Populations Chaotic? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 J. C. Allen XI Demographic Framework for Analysis of Insect Life Histories ..... 206 James R. Carey Stochastic Differential Equations as Insect Population Models ................................ 219 Brian Dennis Intensive Study and Comparison of Single Species Population Simulation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 Li Dianmo and Liu Chang Potential Use of an Engineering-Based Computer Simulation Language (SLAM) for Modeling Insect Systems ..... ....... 247 W. Scott Fargo and W. David Woodson Modeling Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Population Dynamics: Methods, Results and Impending Challenges ......... 256 M. P. Lih and F. M. Stephen Application of Catastrophe Theory to Population Dynamics of Rangeland Grasshoppers ...................... 268 Dale R. Lockwood and Jeffrey A. Lockwood Derivation and Analysis of Composite Models for Insect Populations ............................ 278 Jesse A. Logan XII Leslie Matrix Models for Insect Populations with Overlapping Generations ................... . . . . . . . 289 Erik V. Nordheim, David B. Hogg, and Shun-Yi Chen Relationships Among Recent Models for Insect Population Dynamics with Variable Rates of Development ............. 299 G. Bruce Schaalje and H. R. van der Vaart Models of Development in Insect Populations ............. 313 Glen H. Smerage SECTION III ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL DATA ......... 333 A Significance Test for Morisita's Index of Dispersion and the Moments when the Population is Negative Binomial and Poisson ..... 335 K. Hutcheson and N. 1. Lyons Spatial Analysis of the Relationship of Grasshopper Outbreaks to Soil Classification ......................... 347 Daniel L. Johnson Use of Multi-Dimensional Life Tables for Studying Insect Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 Andrew M. Liebhold and Joseph S. Elkinton

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