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SCHOOL OF nnnni CIVIL ENGINEERING INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION JOINT HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROJECT FHWA/IN/JHRP-94/1 Draft Final Report ESTIMATING STATEWIDE VEHICLE-MILES TRAVELED IN INDIANA Robert K. Kumapley Jon D. Flicker 3^ ; UNIVERSITY JOINT HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROJECT FHWA/IN/JHRP-94/1 Draft Final Report ESTIMATING STATEWIDE VEHICLE-MILES TRAVELED IN INDIANA Robert K. Kumapley Jon D. Fricker Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from LYRASIS members and Sloan Foundation; Indiana Department of Transportation http://www.archive.org/details/estimatingstatewOOkuma Draft Final Report ESTIMATING STATEWIDE VEHICLE-MILES TRAVELED IN INDIANA Robert K. Kumapley Jon D. Flicker, Ph.D. Joint Highway Research Project Project No: C-36-54W File No: 3-3-48 Conducted in cooperation with the Indiana Department ofTransportation and Federal Highway Administration The contents ofthis report reflect the viewsofthe authors whoare responsible forthe facts and the accuracy ofthe data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views of policies of the Federal Highway Administration and the Indiana Department ofTransportation. This report does not constitute a standard, specification or regulation. Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 47907 January 20, 1994 SUMMARY TECHNICAL Estimated Statewide Vehicle-Miles Indiana Department ofTransportation Traveled in Indiana Purdue University,School ofCivilEngrg. Robert K. Kumapley, Jon D. Fricker Joint HighwayResearch Project FHWA/IN/JHRP/94-1 West Lafayette, IN 47907 Draft Final Report - January 20, 1994 Phone: 317^94-2159 Motivation With strict environmental monitoring and more precise transportation planning now required under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and the 1991 Intermodal Surface Trans- portation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) the accuracy, stability, and , growth rates of VMT forecasts is of primary concern. To achieve the desired accuracy in VMT estimation, the Federal Highway Administration has modified the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) to focus on VMT estimation. Pre- sently the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) estimates VMT by a method that follows closely the HPMS method taking advantage of the extensive amount of traffic records in the state road inventory. Because the state road inventory is focused on roads in the state highway system, INDOT is uncom- fortable with the statewide VMT estimate. The statewide VMT estimate, which is expected to include all roads in the state network, is bound to be inaccurate. Summary Two cross classification models have been developed in this study for use in the estimation of statewide VMT in Indiana. This is to provide INDOT with an independent source of improved statewide VMT estimates based on driver behavior to supplement the estimates obtained from the traffic count based HPMS method. The models are calibrated to produce VMT estimates for all functional classes in the state network, including combined statewide VMT estimates for functional classes that are not part of the state highway system. The models are incorporated into a QUATTRO PRO spreadsheet program to allow INDOT simple and efficient execution of the models. The advantage of having the two models is to use the Short-term Model to forecast short term statewide VMT, and then use the VMT Tracking Model to track annually the VMT forecasts obtained from the Short-term Model. Contact Persons: For more information, contact Professor Jon D Fricker (317) 494-2205, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907. TECHNICAL REPORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE 1. ReportNo. 2. GovernmentAcceuionNo. 3. Recipient'sCatalogNo. JHRP-94/1 4. TitleandSubtitle 5. ReportDate Estimating Statewide Vehicle-Miles Traveled January 20, 1994 in Indiana 6. PerformingOrganizationCode 7. Aufhor(s) 8. PerformingOrganization ReportNo. Robert K. Kumapley Jon D. Fricker, Ph.D. 9. PerformingOrganizationNameandAddress 10. Work UnitNo. Joint Highway Research Project Civil Engineering Building 11. ContractorGrantNo. Purdue University Indiana HPR-2068 13. TypeofReportondPeriod Covered 12. SponsoringAgencyNameandAddres" Indiana Department of Transportation Draft Final Report State Office Building 100 North Senate Avenue 14. SponsoringAgencyCode Indianapolis, IN 46204 15. SupplementaryNotes 16. Abstract Two cross classification models have been developed in this study for use in the estimation of statewide VMT in Indiana. This is to provide INDOT with an independent source of improved statewide VMT estimates based on driver behavior to supplement the estimates obtained from the traffic count based HPMS method. The models are calibrated to produce VMT estimates for all functional classes in the state network, including combined statewide VMT estimates for functional classes that are not part of the state highway system. The results obtained in the model evaluation process indicate that the models are well calibrated. Model-generated VMT estimates are noted to be within 5 percent of Indiana VMT estimates pcuobnlsiisshteedntliyn oHviegrhewsatyimaStteatniosrticusnd.eresTthiemamtoedetlhse wHeirgehwafyouSntdattiostincesithVeMrT estimates. The models are incorporated into a QUATTRO PRO spreadsheet program to allow INDOT simple and efficient execution of the models. The advantage of having the two models is to use the Short-term Model to forecast short term statewide VMT, and then use the VMT Tracking Model to track annually the VMT forecasts obtained from the Short-term Model. 17. KeyWords 18. DistributionStatement No Restrictions. This document is avail- able through the Nationtional Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161 19. SecurityClotslt.(ofthisreport) 20. SecurityClasslf. (ofthispage) 21. No. ofPages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 220 Form DOT F 1700.7 (e-«»)