Eruptions of Popular Anger

177 Pages·2017·4.48 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

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Eruptions of Popular Anger

Eruptions of Popular Anger
The Economics of the Arab Spring
and Its Aftermath
Elena Ianchovichina
© 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Ianchovichina, Elena. 2018. Eruptions of Popular Anger: The
Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath. MENA Development Report. Washington, DC: World Bank.
doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1152-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1152-4
ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1153-1
DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1152-4
Cover art: © Liliana S. Dave. Used with the permission of Liliana S. Dave; further permission required for
reuse. Translations of the words on the posters: “a decent living” (left); “justice” (right).
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MENA Development
Report Series
This series features major development reports from the Middle East and
North Africa region of the World Bank, based on new research and thor-
oughly peer-reviewed analysis. Each report aims to enrich the debate on
the main development challenges and opportunities the region faces as it
strives to meet the evolving needs of its people.
Titles in the MENA Development Report Series
Privilege-Resistant Policies in the Middle East and North Africa:
Measurement and Operational Implications (2018) by Syed Akhtar
Mahmood and Meriem Ait Ali Slimane
Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its
Aftermath (2018) by Elena Ianchovichina
Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa
(2018) by World Bank
Jobs or Privileges: Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle
East and North Africa (2015) by Marc Schiffbauer, Abdoulaye Sy,
Sahar Hussain, Hania Sahnoun, and Philip Keefer
The Road Traveled: Dubai’s Journey towards Improving Private
Education: A World Bank Review (2014) by Simon Thacker and
Ernesto Cuadra
Inclusion and Resilience: The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the
Middle East and North Africa (2013) by Joana Silva, Victoria Levin,
and Matteo Morgandi
Opening Doors: Gender Equality and Development in the Middle East
and North Africa (2013) by World Bank
vi Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath
From Political to Economic Awakening in the Arab World: The Path of
Economic Integration (2013) by Jean-Pierre Chauffour
Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries: A Case for
Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience
(2012) by Dorte Verner
Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging Solution to Close the
Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa (2012) by World Bank
Poor Places, Thriving People: How the Middle East and North Africa
Can Rise Above Spatial Disparities (2011) by World Bank
Financial Access and Stability: A Road Map for the Middle East and
North Africa (2011) by Roberto R. Rocha, Zsofia Arvai, and Subika
Farazi
From Privilege to Competition: Unlocking Private-Led Growth in the
Middle East and North Africa (2009) by World Bank
The Road Not Traveled: Education Reform in the Middle East and North
Africa (2008) by World Bank
Making the Most of Scarcity: Accountability for Better Water Management
Results in the Middle East and North Africa (2007) by World Bank
Gender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Women
in the Public Sphere (2004) by World Bank
Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North
Africa: Toward a New Social Contract (2004) by World Bank
Better Governance for Development in the Middle East and North Africa:
Enhancing Inclusiveness and Accountability (2003) by World Bank
Trade, Investment and Development in the Middle East and North
Africa: Engaging with the World (2003) by World Bank
All books in the MENA Development Report series are avail-
able for free at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle
/10986/2168.
Contents
Acknowledgments xiii
About the Author and Contributors xv
Abbreviations xix
Overview 1
Three Puzzles 7
Summary of Findings 11
PART 1 The “Arab Inequality” Puzzle 23
1 Economic Inequality: Measurement and Biases 27
Introduction 27
Income Inequality 28
Wealth Inequality 33
2 Welfare Dynamics: Definitions and Measurement 41
Introduction 41
Defining the Middle Class 42
Synthetic Panel Method 46
Welfare Dynamics 49
PART 2 The “Unhappy Development” Syndrome 59
3 Dissatisfaction with Life: Subjective Data Analysis 63
Introduction 63
Subjective Well-Being versus Monetary Welfare Measures 63
Measuring Life Satisfaction 65
Dissatisfaction with Life in Arab Countries 66
viii Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath
4 Subjective Well-Being Dynamics 79
Introduction 79
Objective and Subjective Well-Being: Mixed Evidence 79
Subjective Well-Being Dynamics with Synthetic Panels 85
5 Symptoms of a Broken Social Contract 93
Introduction 93
A Broken Social Contract 93
Major Grievances behind the Arab Unhappiness 100
PART 3 The Paradox of “Political Violence
in Middle-Income Countries” 113
6 Arab Spring Protestors and Protests 117
Introduction 117
The Profile of Arab Spring Protestors 117
Arab Spring Protests and Riots 120
7 The Aftermath of the Arab Spring 127
Introduction 127
State Responses to the Arab Spring 128
Foreign Interventions, Identity-Based Polarization,
and High-Intensity Civil Wars 131
Overlapping Horizontal Divisions 135
What Explains the Arab Paradox of “Political
Violence in Middle-Income Countries”? 138
8 Development Consequences and Policy Implications 145
Development Consequences 145
Toward a New Social Contract and Governance Model 149
Box
2.1 Assumptions Underpinning the Synthetic Panel Approach 48
Figures
O.1 Political Instability Index, 2003–12 2
O.2 Annual Economic Output Growth, 2005–10 3
O.3 Poverty Rates 3
O.4 Expenditure Inequality, over Time and across the World 4
O.5 Shared Prosperity 4
O.6 Profile of the Arab Spring Protestors 5
O.7 Reasons for Arab Spring Based on Views in Developing
MENA 8