ERIC EJ585118: Demographic and Economic Trends: Implications for Education and Industry.

15 Pages·1999·1.9 MB·English

by  ERIC

GUEST Demographic and Economic Trends: Implications for
EDITARTICLE Education and Industry
A. Emerson Wiens Three hundred years ago, predicting the trends, and literature in which “world-watcher
future was simple: Life 25 years from now will experts” in economics and certain industrial
be the same as this year unless an epidemic fields made predictions. Only recent issues of
strikes. In those days, a curriculum for educat- journals, periodic literature, and books were
ing young people for the future was obvious. reviewed to obtain the most current data and
Now that the rate of technological and social interpretations. (See Reference section for com-
change is on the vertical stem of the J curve, plete bibliographic information.)
anticipating the future has become essential Obviously, there are many more resources
for business but increasingly difficult. Behind that focus on the future. Some writers develop
this accelerated rate of change is the computer creative scenarios of underground cities, sky-
that gets twice as smart every 18 months, a fact scrapers several miles high, a workless soci-
that Paul Horn, senior vice president of re- ety, colonies on the moon, life on Mars, and
search at IBM, predicts will continue for at more. While all of these scenarios may come
least another 15 years (Life, 1997). true in time, the resources I selected are, for the
Educators in vocational, industrial, tech- most part, quite conservative and based on
nology, and engineering education who want current trends as opposed to creative specula-
to prepare students for the future often find tion. For the record, none of the trends were
program and curriculum planning to be diffi- taken from the National Inquirer.
cult. Students in these fields have special This article is divided into three sections.
reason to be anxious about the relevancy of The first identifies selected current and antici-
their education since it prepares them for pated demographic and economic trends. The
future employment in fields that are changing second lists key technologies that are antici-
rapidly. While technological changes are cer- pated to be of major importance in the new
tain, we cannot predict the exact nature and millennium. The third section explores several
the speed of the changes with any degree of implications of these trends for education and
certainty. Yet, a few trends and demographic industry.
realities exist, and some authors are bold
enough to suggest the most important foci for TRENDS
individuals and businesses in the future. For Demographic Changes and Trends
educators, some of these trends and directions 1. Populations shifts: Mitchell (1995) de-
will have an impact on who we teach, others scribed the two baby booms that have oc-
on what we teach, and yet others on how we curred since World War II, and how they will
teach. affect the population configuration in the next
My search for trends and social/economic few years (see Figure 1).
changes was done by examining several • The population of college-aged young people
sources that report demographic data and has hit bottom and will be going up slowly
Dr. Wiens is a Professor in the
Department of Industrial Tech-
nology at Illinois State University,
Normal. He is a member of Gamma
Theta Chapter of Epsilon Pi Tau. Figure 1. Two baby booms and how they grew. (From Mitchell, 1995, p. 27.)
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from the second baby boom until around force by 2006.
2005 where it will peak (Mitchell, 1995). • While the proportion of children in poverty
• As Figure 2 indicates, the first baby boom during the 1970s fluctuated from 14% to
will have a “graying” effect on the labor 17%, the poverty rate for children in 1993
had grown to 23%. “Unfortunately, the
next boomers are divided into haves and
have-nots according to their access to
technology and the ability to build impor-
tant skills early in life....The poorest mem-
bers of the next baby boom are the least
likely to have access to up-to-date tech-
nology” (Mitchell, 1995, p. 30).
• The population of people over 85 will in-
crease four times as fast as the total popu-
lation in the next 40 to 50 years.
Economics/Business
1. We will continue to move from a na-
tional economy to an international economy.
As noted by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD, 1998),
a number of non-OECD countries have be-
come much more active in world trade in the
last two decades. As Figure 3 indicates, the
emerging economies in Asia, excluding Japan,
have grown quickly, especially in manufac-
turing. Taken as a group, Korea, China, and
Figure 2. Percent of labor force by age group
other Asian emerging market economies had
in 1996 and projected to 2006. (From
easily exceeded the United States in world
Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1998, p. 2.)
merchandise exports by 1996 (OECD, 1998).
Figure 3. Shares in world merchandise trade (percent).
3
According to Naisbitt (1996), “the moderniza- 4. Lester Thurow (1992), dean of the Sloan
tion of Asia economically, politically and cul- School of Management at MIT, noted that
turally is by far the most important event taking international competition will move increas-
place in the world today” (p. 18). ingly from niche competition in which coun-
2. While some Western industrialists are tries excelled in different product areas (e.g.,
concerned about the added competition re- airplanes or computers) to head-to-head com-
flected by the increases in exports, particularly petition, in which the major players (U.S.,
from the Asian countries, the positive side is European community, and the Pacific Rim) all
that markets in these countries are also open- want to compete for the same markets: micro-
ing as shown by the growth in imports by the electronics, biotechnology, the new materi-
same countries. als-science industries, telecommunications,
3. In 1988, more than 300,000 Americans civilian aviation, robotics plus machine tools,
worked for Japanese companies; 100,000 Japa- and computers plus software.
nese worked for American ventures in Japan, 5. Services, from advertising and legal coun-
and Japan’s Ministry of Trade and Industry sel to automotive repair and take-out food,
predicted that Japanese investment would have become the fastest growing part of the
spawn an additional million American jobs by economy with 12.3% growth from 1987 to
the year 2000 (Naisbitt & Aburdene, 1990). 1992 compared to 1.5% for the retail sector
These predictions, however, were made (see Figure 4). One fourth of the service indus-
before the downturn in the Asian economy, try is health care, driven in part by use of
and the prophets of the “Asian Century,” an- expensive technology and an aging popula-
ticipating the economic dominance of the tion (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996). Cur-
Pacific Rim countries in the new millenium, rently, health services coupled with business
have fallen suddenly silent. However, one is and professional services account for nearly
safe in saying that the potential for economic two thirds of service firms. Services, like the
dominance still exists. China, with its 1.1 goods-producing industry, will have an edge if
billion population, was least affected by the they master technological change, develop
economic problems of the region because of niche marketing skills, and focus on customer
its controlled economy, but some economic service (Du, Mergenhagen, & Lee, 1995, p.
housekeeping must occur in a number of the 32).
other countries before they can continue to 6. The fastest growing service area is ex-
progress at the rate shown in Figure 3. pected to be business services, which is neces-
Figure 4. Projected job openings due to growth and replacement needs by major
occupational group, 1994-2005 (Bureau of Labor Statistices, 1996, p. 2).
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sitated in part by new technology (i.e., hard- the most education and training will be the
ware and software), but also involves consult- fastest growing and highest paying (Bureau of
ants and accounting and legal services (see Labor Statistics, 1996). According to the 1998-
Figure 5). Even smaller companies are increas- 99 edition of the Occupational Outlook Hand-
ingly turning to service providers where they book (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1998), “of the
do not possess the necessary expertise in- 25 occupations with fast growth, high pay,
and low unemployment that have the largest
numerical growth, 18 require at least a
bachelor’s degree” (p. 4). This list includes five
in computer science, four in health care, and
five in education.
11. Drucker (1994) stated that we are enter-
ing the knowledge society in which the acqui-
sition and distribution of formal knowledge
may come to occupy the place in the politics
of the knowledge society that the acquisition
and distribution of property and income have
occupied in our politics over the two or three
centuries that we have come to call the Age of
Capitalism. Knowledge workers, he suggested,
will own the “tools of production” (p. 66) in
their knowledge.
12. In the 1970s and 1980s, women took
two thirds of the millions of new jobs created
in the information sector (Naisbitt & Aburdene,
1990). Currently 46% of the workforce, women
are projected to comprise 48% by 2005 (Bu-
Figure 5. Projected employment change in
reau of Labor Statistics, 1996).
service industries, 1994-2005 (From Bureau
Women’s pay still lags males’. However,
of Labor Statistics, 1996, p. 1.)
gains have been bolstered with a 22.7% rise
(inflation adjusted) for college graduates since
house. 1979, while wages for female high school
7. While production workers in manufac- dropouts fell by nearly 9% in the same period
turing will continue to be replaced by technol- (Kacapyr, 1998). Will (1999) noted that
ogy, there will be an increase in the number of “among people 27 to 33, women who have
professional positions in manufacturing by never had a child earn about 98 cents for every
2005. Hiring requirements in many manage- dollar men earn.” The point that is made by
rial and administrative jobs are becoming researchers Furchtgott-Roth and Stolba (1996)
more stringent; work experience, specialized is that children tend to disrupt the career paths
training, or graduate study as well as computer of many women and most women do not have
literacy will be increasingly necessary (Bureau the requiste MBA or law degree usually
of Labor Statistics, 1996). nessecary to support a position as a senior
8. Construction is expected to increase by member at Fortune 1000 industrial and For-
26%, but it will be primarily in infrastructure tune 500 service companies.
building (i.e., bridges, roads, and tunnels). 13. A major problem facing many busi-
Housing and office building construction will nesses immediately is the year 2000 compli-
be slower (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996). ance (Y2K) issue. To save memory, older com-
9. The economy will continue to shift from puters and software were coded with only a
an industrial economy to an information two-digit date (i.e., the last two numbers of the
economy (The Global Network, 1997; “Key year). Hence, the year 2000 will be 00, not
Technologies,” 1995). At the core of the infor- 2000. To correct this problem, General Mo-
mation economy is the computer and the tors alone expects to spend between $400
information highway, but it is much more: all- million and $550 million (Bylinsky, 1998).
optical networks, wireless networks, intelli- Counting the costs of replacement of hard-
gent software, virtual reality, satellite technol- ware and software, legal fees (which may
ogy, “smart” credit cards, and more. exceed equipment costs), and labor in correct-
10. Many of the available jobs in the near ing the problem, the total costs may exceed a
future will require the least education and trillion dollars worldwide.
training, but these tend to be low-pay, dead- The problem exists in every aspect of soci-
end jobs. However, the occupations requiring ety dependent on computers. Manufacturers,
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however, are more vulnerable than most other as the former socialistic countries and China
businesses because of the variety of equip- become more market driven, but it also means
ment that has date sensitivity embedded in that competition for the same markets will
silicon chips and/or in the software. If in- become increasingly fierce, especially among
scribed on silicon chips, whole pieces of fac- the European group, the Pacific Rim countries,
tory equipment will have to be scrapped, from and the United States. This competition will
time clocks to CNC robots and machine tools. require industry in the United States to explore
Unfortunately, not enough programmers are new ways of doing business, to be more agile.
available worldwide to solve all of the prob- Many companies that thought they were iso-
lems. Although most large companies are ad- lated and insulated may suddenly find them-
dressing the problem, they are also at the selves competing with companies from other
mercy of their suppliers. Small companies that parts of the world. Alliances and other forms of
cannot guarantee year 2000 compliance will cooperative arrangements between suppliers
be replaced with other vendors by the larger and industries that use the materials and ser-
companies (Bylinsky, 1998). vices will become a necessary ingredient of
survival (Preiss, Golman, & Nagel, 1996).
IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGIES IN THE These shifts and trends have significant impli-
NEXT 20 YEARS cations for both industry and education.
To provide a more complete picture of the For Education
future for education decision makers, I also The implications for education of the infor-
sought to identify the technologies that will be mation gathered for this paper depend on the
the most important as the new millennium level and purpose of the education program
begins. Several lists of technologies for the being considered. If technology education at
21st century have appeared in books and the secondary and undergraduate levels is
journals. Burris (1993) listed 20 core tech- being addressed, knowledge about or aware-
nologies, and the Scientific American com- ness of most of the technologies listed in the
mitted an issue to “Key Technologies for the table as well as the societal interaction with
21st Century” (1995), with articles describing those technologies should be considered part
more than 20 technologies. Thurow (1992) of technological literacy.
listed seven categories of technology in which If the program is engineering technology,
there will be major competition. A final article industrial technology, or industrial engineer-
reviewed was the list of 10 technologies “for ing at the undergraduate or graduate level,
the next ten years” by the president of Battelle, career preparation is the goal. Then decisions
Douglas E. Olesen (1996). These lists have must be made regarding which of the tech-
been compiled in Table 1. To provide some nologies belong in each type of program. This
semblance of order, they are organized by is obviously a difficult task, especially because
major technology headings. the technologies are becoming increasingly
Of the 35 technologies identified in these more sophisticated across the board. Most, if
four sources, only eight technologies appeared not all, of these programs have steered away
in at least three of the lists (marked with an from biotechnology. The focus has been pri-
asterisk in Table 1). Five of these were in the marily on manufacturing materials and pro-
information field with one in gene mapping/ cesses, certain aspects of telecommunications
biotechnology, one in microscopic (nano) and information technology, and selected top-
machines, and one in super materials. Of ics in the energy area. Are current programs
equal interest are the two major categories that too narrowly conceived? What are the practi-
were identified as important by fewer than cal considerations regarding expansion? What
three list makers: transportation technologies can institutions afford to include? Obviously,
and energy/environmental technologies. there is no point in duplicating what is done
better at other technical levels. Yet, changes
IMPLICATIONS OF THE TRENDS are taking place. Are programs adapting to
those changes or lagging behind them?
The roots of the future are firmly established • Students need to know much more about the
in today’s trends: a service economy in which aspects of being involved in international
all sectors—goods producing and services business; they need to be aware of and
alike—will rely heavily on information sys- honor cultural differences and understand
tems technology and the knowledge worker. how these differences influence doing
Business will be increasingly globalized. This business in these countries. Employees
means that the customer base for products and who are bilingual and understand other
services will expand dramatically, especially cultures have an edge in international
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Table 1
7
companies. Classes in both international in residential housing.
business and foreign language would be • As technology sophistication accelerates,
beneficial in providing tools for students and the level of the technical sophistica-
in industrial and technical education. tion of our graduates rises, their ability to
• While we have touted the value of industrial work in teams, to communicate their ex-
internships in career preparation, we must pertise in problem solving, and to incor-
now consider opportunities for interna- porate the knowledge of others becomes
tional business internships. Professional more essential.
practice internships and/or coop programs • The service economy will offer many low-
are important components of many cur- wage, low-experience, low-hope jobs for
rent programs. Now we need to identify the least educated. But the service sector
companies that do business internation- will also offer many opportunities for
ally and develop internship programs that employment that require personnel who
will introduce students to that dimension are well prepared in technical subjects.
of the job market. Perhaps a state’s liaison Are we emphasizing the competencies in
office in Japan could help with such con- our programs to prepare our graduates to
nections. (As of 1990, 40 American states troubleshoot in technical areas and to
already had liaison offices in Japan work with clients/customers who are likely
[Naisbitt & Aburdene, 1990].) to be increasingly demanding in a highly
• The technical needs of industry need to be competitive future?
addressed. Besides specific attention to • The customer focus must also become a
the selected cutting-edge technologies central theme in our curriculum just as it
listed in the “Important Technologies of is becoming a central focus for companies
the Next 20 Years,” subject matter in that wish to remain in business. Collabo-
concurrent engineering, designed-in qual- ration with a marketing department may
ity, flexible manufacturing, statistical qual- be useful to achieve this. Today, the con-
ity and process control tools, robots/auto- cept of customer has been broadened
mation, computer numerical control, other immensely beyond the buyer of products
control systems, and rapid prototyping and services. It includes the next person
are subjects that need to be addressed at on the assembly line as well as service
all levels of technology and technical department personnel and industrial con-
education and also addressed in depth if sultants.
we are to supply the competitive tech- • Currently, women are increasing as a per-
nologists and managers for the expand- centage of the labor force and are being
ing, competitive marketplace. attracted disproportionately to informa-
• Figure 2 illustrated the movement of the tion jobs. Whether more can be attracted
post-WWII baby boomers in the labor to enter industrial fields may depend on
force. By 2006, the largest group in the the ability of these programs to market the
workforce will be from age 35 to 54. This applications of information systems in in-
shift toward an older workforce, most of dustry. Women are also disproportion-
whose formal education occurred prior to ately absent in high-level managerial po-
the advent of the personal computer, sitions, yet are quite capable as shown by
should alert the education community to their success rates in entrepreneurial ef-
the need to provide continuing education forts. Industrial management programs
for these adults. This will require assess- should seek and encourage women to
ment of technical needs as well as deliv- consider their potential in such a field.
ery techniques. On-site delivery tech- • Just as businesses will increasingly benefit
niques using closed-circuit interactive from alliances with other businesses, in-
video classrooms, Internet delivery, and dustrial and technology education would
other types of electronic instructional mo- serve its customers (students) better
dalities are growing in popularity. through alliances with the business col-
• With the first post-war baby boomers reach- leges/departments as well as with com-
ing retirement age in the next 10 years, mercial businesses and industries. This
contractors can look forward to building will not be easy in most cases since turf
retirement homes for the largest and most ownership pervades higher education.
affluent retirement crowd yet. Construc- Such alliances can only be developed
tion technology programs would be well successfully in a win-win atmosphere.
advised to begin addressing the design • The building blocks of the information
features and the technical systems that economy focus on microprocessors, digi-
provide safety, convenience, and comfort tal electronics, optical and wireless net-
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works, artificial intelligence, and related which company gets the contract. The
technology. Are students prepared in these concept of customer has been broadened
areas? immensely in recent years and needs to be
• As a result of the demographic shifts that are addressed in employment policies and
already identifiable, U.S. society in 2010 the training of workers.
will be more ethnically diverse with a • Concurrent engineering, designed-in qual-
greater split between haves and have- ity, flexible manufacturing, statistical qual-
nots. This split is not only monetary (i.e., ity and process control tools, robots/auto-
increasing number of children in poverty) mation, and rapid prototyping are prac-
but also in technical savvy and computer tices that are helping companies gain a
skills. Higher education may not be sig- competitive edge. With the advent of
nificantly impacted by these demographic computerization of the manufacturing
changes since most of the poorly equipped processes, production will continue to
young people may not attempt college. move from mass production to mass
But they will likely be part of technology customization. Customization will rely
and vocational education programs in the greatly on flexible manufacturing systems
public schools and, to some degree, com- (FMS) and computer integrated manufac-
munity colleges. Remedial programs may turing (CIM).
be necessary to bring these students up to The list above addresses implications for
speed so they can compete for jobs with a industry and for educational content. In most
future. cases, these trends have been visible for a
decade or more. Updating a program requires
For Industry updating faculty to the industrial environment
• The first order of business for industries is to of the future. This is a challenge for administra-
resolve the Y2K problem. An inventory tors at all levels and requires in-service educa-
must be made of all date-sensitive equip- tion, participation in commercial exhibits and
ment and action taken to repair (if pos- conventions, and other opportunities such as
sible), replace, or discard. industrial internships not that different from
• Success will come to those companies that what students are offered.
identify emerging markets first and get the In addition to content, however, new tech-
product or service concept developed and nologies offer new ways of teaching and learn-
marketed to the customers ahead of the ing: distance learning with closed circuit or
competition. Concurrent engineering and compressed video networks, distance learn-
rapid prototyping will become necessi- ing via the Internet, virtual reality, interactive
ties. CDs, and other modes in process. Degrees as
• The focus will be on the customer as never well as term papers are already offered via the
before; this translates into customization Internet, and competition in the global
and flexibility so that varieties of products economy is coming to higher education by
or services can be initiated quickly and way of the Internet and digitized technologies
responsively. In the new century, Drucker very soon. Is it not likely that Microsoft and
(1994) noted that the service industries Disney will collaborate to offer courses and
need to follow the pattern of agriculture degrees. Why not? Microsoft already owns a
and manufacturing in raising productivity large collection of important artistic and his-
without sacrificing the customer focus. toric works that is often used in teaching.
Value-added will become the criteria for Personnel from Microsoft have also paid sev-
all processes and divisions within organi- eral visits to higher education institutions to
zations. These changes have direct impli- gather information about pedagogy as well as
cations for industry and education. As content of exemplary programs (Blumenstyk,
competition on the same product line or 1998). Is higher education ready for the next
service line increases, customer service century?
may well be the determining factor for
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