ERIC ED538495: Projections of Education Statistics to 2021. Fortieth Edition. NCES 2013-008

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Projections of Education
Statistics to 2021
Fortieth Edition
2018 2020
2018 2020
2017 2019 2021
2017 2019 2021
NCES 2013-008 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Projections of Education
Statistics to 2021
Fortieth Edition
JANUARY 2013
William J. Hussar
National Center for Education Statistics
Tabitha M. Bailey
IHS Global Insight
NCES 2013-008
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
U.S. Department of Education
Arne Duncan
Secretary
Institute of Education Sciences
John Q. Easton
Director
National Center for Education Statistics
Jack Buckley
Commissioner
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting
data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,
and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and
specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving
their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.
NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and
accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department
of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless
specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.
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Suggested Citation
Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2013). Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 (NCES 2013-008). U.S. Department of Education,
National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
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Content Contact
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Foreword
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 is the 40th Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology
report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on and describes the models and assumptions used to develop
elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary the national and state projections. The enrollment models use
degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions enrollment data and population estimates and projections from
of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on
2020 and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.
expenditures to the year 2021. The models also use projections of economic variables from
IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.
In addition to projections at the national level, the report
includes projections of public elementary and secondary The projections presented in this report are based on the
school enrollment and public high school graduates to the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal
year 2021 at the state level. The projections in this report migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the
were produced by the National Center for Education Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.
Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,
and others with state-level projections developed using a
consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant Chris Chapman, Acting Associate Commissioner
detailed projections prepared for individual states. Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting
Studies Division
Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are
the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.
NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,
or local education policies that may affect education statistics.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 iii
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Contents
Page
Foreword ...............................................................................................................................................................................iii
List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................................................vii
List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................................................xi
About This Report ..................................................................................................................................................................1
Projections ....................................................................................................................................................................1
Limitations of Projections .............................................................................................................................................1
Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .........................................................................................................3
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................3
Accuracy of Projections ..................................................................................................................................................3
National ........................................................................................................................................................................4
State and Regional (Public School Data) ........................................................................................................................6
Section 2. High School Graduates ...................................................................................................................................7
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................7
Accuracy of Projections ..................................................................................................................................................7
National ........................................................................................................................................................................8
State and Regional (Public School Data) ......................................................................................................................10
Section 3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers .............................................................................................................11
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................11
Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................11
Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools ...........................................................................................................12
Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ....................................................................15
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................15
Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................15
Current Expenditures ..................................................................................................................................................16
Section 5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions .........................................................................19
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................19
Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................19
Total Enrollment .........................................................................................................................................................20
Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control
of Institution .........................................................................................................................................................21
First-Time Freshmen Enrollment ................................................................................................................................24
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 v
Page
Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred ................................................................................................................25
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................25
Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................................................25
Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient ........................................................................................................26
Reference Tables ............................................................................................................................................................29
Technical Appendixes ....................................................................................................................................................79
Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology .................................................................................................80
A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology ..............................................................................................................80
A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment ................................................................................................................87
A.2. High School Graduates ......................................................................................................................................100
A.3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers ...................................................................................................................106
A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ...........................................................................114
A.5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions ................................................................................118
A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred.......................................................................................................................137
Appendix B. Supplementary Tables ............................................................................................................................141
Appendix C. Data Sources ..........................................................................................................................................149
Appendix D. References ..............................................................................................................................................157
Appendix E. List of Abbreviations ..............................................................................................................................159
Appendix F. Glossary ..................................................................................................................................................161
vi Contents
List of Tables
Table Page
1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades PK–12, PK–8, and 9–12 in elementary and
secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ....................................................................31
2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by grade:
Fall 1996 through fall 2021...................................................................................................................................32
3. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by
race/ethnicity: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ...........................................................................................................34
4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades PK–8 in public schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall
1996 through fall 2021 .........................................................................................................................................35
5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades 9–12 in public schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall
1996 through fall 2021 .........................................................................................................................................36
6. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades PK–12 in public elementary and secondary schools,
by region and state: Fall 2003 through fall 2021 ...................................................................................................38
7. Actual and projected percentage changes in grades PK–12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary
schools, by region and state: Fall 2003 through fall 2021 ......................................................................................40
8. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades PK–8 in public schools, by region and state: Fall
2003 through fall 2021 .........................................................................................................................................42
9. Actual and projected percentage changes in grades PK–8 enrollment in public schools, by region and state:
Fall 2003 through fall 2021...................................................................................................................................44
10. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades 9–12 in public schools, by region and state: Fall
2003 through fall 2021 .........................................................................................................................................46
11. Actual and projected percentage changes in grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, by region and
state: Fall 2003 through fall 2021 ..........................................................................................................................48
12. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1996–97
through 2021–22 ..................................................................................................................................................49
13. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1996–97
through 2021–22 ..................................................................................................................................................50
14. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region and state: School years 2003–04
through 2021–22 ..................................................................................................................................................52
15. Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: School years
2003–04 through 2021–22 ...................................................................................................................................54
16. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers and elementary and secondary new
teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 1996 through fall 2021.............................................................................55
17. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control
of school: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ...................................................................................................................56
18. Actual and projected numbers for current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in fall
enrollment for public elementary and secondary education: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22 ..................57
19. Actual and projected numbers for current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in average daily
attendance (ADA) for public elementary and secondary education: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22 .......58
20. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex,
attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 .............................................................59
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 vii
Table Page
21. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by
age group, sex, and attendance status: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ........................................................................60
22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex and
attendance status: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ......................................................................................................64
23. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public 4-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,
by sex and attendance status: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 .....................................................................................65
24. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public 2-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,
by sex and attendance status: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 .....................................................................................66
25. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in private 4-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,
by sex and attendance status: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 .....................................................................................67
26. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in private 2-year postsecondary degree-granting institutions,
by sex and attendance status: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 .....................................................................................68
27. Actual and projected numbers for undergraduate enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex, attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ..............................69
28. Actual and projected numbers for postbaccalaureate enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex, attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ..............................70
29. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ...................................................................................71
30. Actual and projected numbers for first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 ....................................................................................................72
31. Actual and projected numbers for full-time-equivalent enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by control and level of institution: Fall 1996 through fall 2021 .........................................................73
32. Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex of recipient: 1996–97 through 2021–22 .................................................................................74
33. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex of recipient: 1996–97 through 2021–22 .................................................................................75
34. Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex of recipient: 1996–97 through 2021–22 .................................................................................76
35. Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by sex of recipient: 1996–97 through 2021–22 .................................................................................77
Text Tables
A. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school,
and grade in elementary and secondary schools: 2012 ...........................................................................................90
B. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and
control of school: 2012 .......................................................................................................................................101
C. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondary
teachers, by lead time: 2012 ................................................................................................................................109
D. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for
public elementary and secondary education, by lead time: 2012 .........................................................................116
E. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in postsecondary degree-granting
institutions, by lead time, sex, and level of institution: 2012 ...............................................................................121
F. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in postsecondary degree-granting
insitutions, by lead time and race/ethnicity: 2012 ...............................................................................................123
viii List of Tables