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DOCUMENT RESUME ED 477 744 SO 034 749 Cetron, Marvin J; Davies, Owen AUTHOR Special Report: 50 Trends Shaping the Future. TITLE World Future Society, Washington, DC. INSTITUTION 2003-00-00 PUB DATE NOTE 32p. World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, AVAILABLE FROM Bethesda, MD 20814 (nonmembers, $8; members, $7.20). Web site: http://www.wfs.org/ . Descriptive (141) Reports PUB TYPE EDRS Price MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage. EDRS PRICE Business; *Economics; *Energy; Environment; *Futures (of DESCRIPTORS Society); Higher Education; Social Science Research; *Sociocultural Patterns; *Technology; Trend Analysis *Economic Trends; *Environmental Trends; World Future Society IDENTIFIERS ABSTRACT This new 2003 edition updates the 2001 report on the implications of 50 major trends now shaping the future. Some of these trends will have a direct impact upon people's concerns, while others will help to form the general environment in which people live and work. The trends are "General Long-Term Economic and Societal divided into eight sections: (1) Trends" (Trends 1-7); "Trends in Values, Concerns, and (2) Lifestyles" (Trends 8-14); (3) "Energy Trends" (Trends 15-18); (4) "Environmental Trends" (Trends 19-24); (5) "Technology Trends" (Trends 25- "Trends in Labor Force and Work" (Trends 31-41); (7) "Management 30); (6) Trends" (Trends 42-45); and (8) "Institutional Trends" (Trends 46-50). (BT) Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. 50 Trends Shaping the Future. (Special Report Published by the World Future Society). t. Marvin J. Cetron Owen Davies World Future Society, Washington, DC. 71- N 71- O 0 c/) PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE AND DISSEMINATE THIS MATERIAL HAS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION BEEN GRANTED BY Office of Educational Research and Improvement EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION 2 6) CENTER (ERIC) r- 0 This document has been reproduced as a. r_r_l received from the person or organization originating it. [BEST COPY AVAI LA LE Minor changes have been made to TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES improve reproduction quality. INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) 1 Points of view or opinions stated in this document do not necessarily represent Special Report Published by the World Future Society Future i By Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies !r Introduction For four decades, Forecasting International has con- ducted an ongoing study of the forces changing our world. Over the last decade, our expectations have proved gratifyingly accurate. For instance, we believed that the economy of the developed world would be much more vibrant than most commenta- tors imagined possible, and so it has been. We also foresaw many of the political and social problems brought about by the changing population. In all, no fewer than 95% of our projections have proved correct. This new edition updates our 2001 report on the implications of 50 major trends now shaping the future. What- ever your concern, some of these trends will have a very direct impact upon it. Others will help to form the general environment in which we live and work. They all merit attention from anyone who must prepare for what lies ahead. Copyright Si 2003 World Future Society 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. www.wfs.org 3 .13332 coPY AvAILATTik Should Join the 10 Reasons You 0.1) World Future Society cie You'll... 1) Stay on top of the trends that could change your world . . . 2) Join a network of accomplished professionals in many fields... 3) Read articles from business and technology insiders . 4) Develop leadership strategies ... 5) Look at the world through a wider lens . 6) Think more creatively.. . 7) Work more productively. .. 8) Discover new innovations and industries of promise . "If we could first know where 9) Access vital resources on the futureavailable nowhere else .. . we are, and whither we are 10) Receive THE FUTURIST the Society's premiere magazine tending, we could better judge covering forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future . . . what to do, and how to do it." Abraham Lincoln .1iginN', Yes! I want to join the World Future Society and begin exploring pathways to the future. Enclosed is $45 for my first year's dues. I'm not sure; send more information! Method of Payment Check or money order enclosed (payable to: World Future Society). American Express Visa 0 Discover Diner's Club MasterCard Charge my: Account # Signature Exp. Date Name Address City E-mail ZIP or Postal Code State 8R25 World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.wfs.org Fax: 1-301-951-0394 Telephone: 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274 4 ,tA3T COPw AVAXI.A.,112). nority groups who traditionally have bad debts, coupled with better lend- General Long-Term not participated strongly in this ing practices and other reforms, could set the stage for a long- market. Economic and Societal As other countries bring their awaited economic recovery in 2005. Trends This would make Japan a much economies under control over the healthier trading partner for the next two or three years, growth will accelerate to something near the West. n The enemy el the de- comfortable levels seen in recent In November 2001, China finally veloped world will continue to was admitted to the World Trade Or- years. With national debts under con- ganization. Among other beneficial wow lov as :east the uext five trol throughout most of Europe, the mandates, this requires Beijing to cut away the obstacles that prevent years. Any interruptions will euro has risen to parity against the small exporters from competing U.S. dollar for the first time since the be relatively short-lived. European Union floated its joint profitably in this potentially enor- Less than a year after the terror- mous market. As these reforms take currency. ist attacks, the U.S. economy began The outlook for Europe remains effect, they will provide a welcome mixed, but relaxation of borders rebounding strongly, with rises in stimulus to the American economy. within the European Union has personal income, consumer spend- Many nations of the former So- viet Union are bringing order to ing, retail sales, and industrial pro- brought new mobility to the labor duction. In the hard-hit tech sector, force. This is making for a more effi- their economies, proving themselves cient business environment on the production was up fully 6% between viable markets for goods from western Europe. Recently, even Russia May and June 2002. This is remark- Continent. appears to be stabilizing its econ- ably good news for an economy that According to the most recent fig- pessimists feared would be on the omy, long the weakest link in its re- ures, Japan's long-suffering economy ropes. is growing for the first time in years. gion. The discovery of oil in Kazakh- stan and new interest in other Real estate has proved to be Japan's central bank is working hard extraordinarily resilient in the to lower the value of the yen on in- countries in the region as potential partners in the war on terrorism United States, thanks to the lowest ternational markets, in hope of pro- mortgage rates in the last 40 years. moting exports and ensuring contin- should further this process. Record-breaking housing sales in- ued growth. Worldwide, improved manufac- This may be just the beginning turing technology will continue to cluded many middle-income buyers, as well as large numbers from mi- for Japan. The banks' write-off of boost productivity and reduce the unit cost of goods. At the same time, workers who remain on the job AUDIOVISUAL LIBRARY EUROPEAN COMMISSION longer will offset slow growth in the labor force, while the globalization of business will keep pressure on salaries in the developed countries. Thus, both prices and wages should remain under control. However, there is one new trouble spot. The Brazilian econ- omya mainstay of the Latin Amer- ican regionhad been much more resilient than some onlookers feared two years ago. Recently, that picture changed. Word that the Worker's Party candidate was in the lead for the Brazilian presidency drove the real to record lows on the global currency markets before the October 2002 election, while stock and bond markets also declined precipitously. Fears that the World Bank and IMF will withdraw their support suggest that the largest economy in South America could soon follow Ar- gentina into default. Euros unite Europe, gaining parity The current eco- Implications: with U.S. dollar. nomic downturn is very likely to prove relatively short-lived. It will be 50 Trends Shaping the Future 3 5 applicants in the United States and In 10 years or so, the workforce followed by generally solid growth Europe will be recent immigrants in Japan and much of Europe will throughout the developed world for from developing countries. shrink by 1% per year. By the 2030s, the remainder of this decade. Culture clashes between natives it will contract by 1.5% annually. Economic unification will boost all Rapid population and immigrants are likely to destabi- Implications: manner of trade within Europe. In growth will reinforce American lize societies throughout the devel- the long run, the newly capitalist oped world. Germany, Britain, and lands of the former Soviet Union dominance of the global economy, as the European Union falls to third other lands traditionally welcoming should be among the fastest growing to refugees and other migrants al- place behind the United States and new markets. In the longer term, In- ready are experiencing strong back- China. dia will expand faster than any other lashes against asylum-seekers To meet human nutritional needs market in the world. over the next 40 years, global agri- Labor markets will remain tight, culture will have to supply as much particularly in skilled fields. This The population of the food as has been produced during all calls for new creativity in recruiting, of human history. benefits, and perks, especially profit developed world is living longer. Unless fertility in the developed sharing. This hypercompetitive busi- Each generation lives longer and lands climbs dramatically, either ness environment demands new would-be retirees will have to re- remains healthier than the last. Since emphasis on rewarding speed, cre- the beginning of the twentieth cen- main on the job, or the industrialized ativity, and innovation within the tury, every generation in the United nations will have to encourage even workforce. States has lived three years longer The growing concentration of more immigration from the develop- than the previous one. An 80-year- ing world. The third alternative is a wealth among the elderly, who as a old in 1950 could expect 6.5 more group already are comparatively sharp economic contraction and loss years of life; today's 80-year-olds are of living standards. well-off, creates an equal deprivation Barring enactment of strict immi- likely to survive 8.5 more years. among the young and the poorer Life expectancy in Australia, gration controls, rapid migration old. This implies a loss of purchasing Japan, and Switzerland is now over will continue from the Southern power among much of the popula- 75 years for males and over 80 for Hemisphere to the North, and espe- tion; in time, it could partially offset cially from former colonies to Eu- the forces promoting economic females. A major reason is the develop- rope. A growing percentage of job growth. FLEET FINANCIAL GROUP / FEATURE PHOTO SERVICE la The world's population will double in the next 40 years. The greatest fertility is found in those countries least able to support their existing populations. Countries with the largest population increases between 2000 and 2050 include Palestinian territory (217%), Niger (205%), Yemen (168%), Angola (162%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (161%), and Uganda (133%). Even these estimates may be much too low. According to the Cen- ter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), most official projections underestimate both fertility and future gains in longevity. In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries will see fertility rates below the replacement level and hence signifi- cant declines in populations, exclud- Seniors are served a hot meal by a ing the effects of immigration. This group of volunteers. People through- means that the population of the de- out the developed world are living veloped nations will fall from 23% of longer. the total world population in 1950 and about 14% in 2000 to only 10% in 2050. 50 Trends Shaping the Future 4 developed countries, public spend- ing on retirement benefits could Rising Life Expectancy Global Aging in Developed World grow to one-fourth of GDP by 2050, even as the number of workers avail- percentage of population aged 65 and older: able to support each retiree declines average years of life expectancy at birth: 2000 1950 2050 sharply, according to CSIS. born 1950-1955 1995.2000 Developed World 15% 27% 8% Barring dramatic advances in geri- 68.9 76.5 USA Developing World 4% 6% 14% atric medicine, the cost of health care 77.2 69.2 U.K. is destined to skyrocket throughout 77.3 67.5 Germany the developed lands. This could Source,: united Nations (2001); cited in The 66.5 France 78.1 create the long-expected crisis in Global Retirement Crisis by Richard Jackson. Italy 66.0 78.2 Center for Strategic and International Studies, health-care financing and delivery. 78.5 Canada 69.1 www.csis.org. 2002. However, dramatic advances in geriatric medicine are all but in- Japan 80.5 63.9 Trend 4 evitable. Paying the high cost of new Source: United Nations (2001); cited in drugs and technologies will reduce States, Germany, United Italy, The Global Retirement Crisis by Richard the cost of caring for patients who Russia, and Japan by 2050. This rep- a burden on national Jackson. Center for Strategic and resents would have suffered from disorders International Studies, www.csis.org. eliminated or ameliorated by new economies that will be difficult to 2002. therapies. In the end, cost increases sustain under current medical and so- Trend 3 and reductions should just about cial security systems. balance out, leaving the average The United States in particular ment of new pharmaceuticals and American health-care bill nearly un- will need more doctors specializing medical technologies, which are in diseases of the elderlyat least changed. making it possible to prevent or cure double the 9,000 now available. Yet, diseases that would have been fatal by 2030, the number of certified to earlier generations. In many de- American geriatric specialists is ex- 4 The elderly population is veloped countries, credit also goes to pected to decline dramatically. growing dramatically through- government health programs, which The nursing shortage is another have made these treatments avail- problem that is severe today and will out the world. able to many or all residents. In the grow much worse as the senior pop- developing lands, a primary cause is ulation expands. In all, the United People over 65 made up only 8% the availability of generic drugs, of the population in the developed States will be short 515,000 nurses by which cut the cost of care and make world in 1950, but 15% in 2000, and 2020, just as senior baby boomers be- health affordable even for the poor. will grow to 27% of the population gin to flood the health-care system. These figures are much too con- in the next half century, according to State health-care agencies will be servative because they assume that forced to take the lead in recruiting CSIS. life expectancy will grow more Throughout the developed new workers to this critical field. slowly in the future, argues CSIS. world, population growth is fastest Medical advances that slow the among the elderly. In Europe, the fundamental process of aging now in The growth of the infor- United States, and Japan, the aged seem to be within reach. They could also form the wealthiest segment of mation industries is creating a well help today's middle-aged baby society. boomers live far longer than even The world's over-60 population knowledge-dependent global CSIS anticipates today. will reach 1 billion by 2020, 13.3% of society. Any practical extension of the the projected world total. Three- human life span will prolong health fourths will be in developing coun- Information is the primary com- as well and will reduce the incidence tries, principally China, India, Brazil, modity of more and more industries. of late-life disorders such as cancer, By 2005, 83% of American Indonesia, and Pakistan. heart disease, arthritis, and possibly management personnel will be In Germany, the retirement-age Alzheimer's disease. population will climb from under knowledge workers. Europe and Implications: Global demand for 16% of the population in 2000 to Japan are not far behind. products and services aimed at the The Internet makes it possible nearly 19% in 2010 and 31% in 2050. Japan's elderly can only grow quickly in the population over-65 for small businesses throughout the coming decades. made up 17% of the total in 2000 and world to compete for market.share Developed countries may face so- is projected to rise to 22% in 2010 on an even footing with industry cial instability as a result of competi- and nearly 37% in 2050. leaders. tion for resources between retire- Not counting immi- Implications: In the United States, the "digital ment-age boomers their and gration, the ratio of working-age divide" seems to be disappearing. In working-age children and grandchil- people to retirees needing their sup- early 2000, a poll found that, where dren. In the United States and other port will drop dramatically in the half of white households owned 7 50 Trends Shaping the Future 5 BEST COPY AVAILABLE PROCTER AND GAMBLE / PR NEWSWIRE PHOTO SERVICE level of education required for a pro- puter ownership was expand- ductive role in today's workforce. ing as well. For many workers, the opportunity By 2005, the average PC workstation will combine a for training is becoming one of the computer, a fax, a picture most desirable benefits any job can phone, and a duplicatorpos- offer. New technologies create new in- sibly in one unitfor less than dustries, jobs, and career paths, $2,500 (in 1995 dollars). The Sue which can bring new income to de- picture will appear on a flat screen of 20 inches by 30 veloping countries. An example is the transfer of functions such as inches. By 2006 or so, these systems will include real-time technical support in the computer industry to Asian divisions and service voice translation, so that con- versations originating in one of firms. seven or eight common languages can be heard in any of 6 Growing acceptance of the others. Computer competence will cultural diversity, aided by the approach 100% in U.S. urban unifying effect of mass media, areas by 2005. Cities in Europe and Hispanic family bridges the Japan will achieve universal com- digital divide, though Hispan- is promoting the growth of a puter literacy shortly thereafter. ics continue to lag behind other truly integrated global society. Implications: Knowledge workers U.S. households in computer are generally better paid than less- ownership. However, this is subject to skilled workers, and their prolifera- local interruptions and Trend 5 tion is raising overall prosperity. Even entry-level workers and those reversals. computers, so did fully 43% of in formerly unskilled positions re- Information technologies pro- quire a growing level of education. African-American households, and mote long-distance communication For a good career in almost any field, their numbers were growing rapidly. as people hook up with the same computer competence is mandatory. Hispanic households continued to commercial databases and computer This is one major trend raising the lag behind, but their rate of corn- networks, and above all with the Internet. PHILIPS ELECTRONICS / FEATURE PHOTO SERVICE Within the United States and Eu- rope, regional differences, attitudes, incomes, and lifestyles are blurring as business carries people from one area to another. Intermarriage also continues to mix cultures geographically, ethni- cally, socially, and economically. Minorities are beginning to exert more influence over national agen- das as the growing number of African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians in the United States is mir- rored by the expanding population of refugees and former "guest workers" throughout Europe. In the United Kingdom, 21% of young adults answering a recent poll viewed themselves as primarily European rather than British. Some 31% of French Gen X'ers, 36% of Germans, and 42% of Italians also Knowledge worker at work: Future said they thought of themselves as workstations will streamline technolo- primarily European. gies into sleek, multipurpose devices. However, in many countries there are powerful reactions against Trend 5 these changes. The growth of the 6 50 Trends Shaping the Future German neo-Nazi movement is one In the wake of the "Asian flu," The Internet and cable-TV home obvious example. shopping channels have brought re- Western companies may have to ac- Implications: Over the next half tailers and manufacturers closer to cept that proprietary information century, growing cultural exchanges distant customers, who had been out will be shared, not just with their im- at the personal level will help to re- of reach. This is reshaping distribu- mediate partners in Asian joint ven- duce some of the conflict that tion patterns in many retail industries. tures, but with other members of the plagued the twentieth century. How- New procurement regulations partners' trading conglomerates. In ever, this is likely to produce a and standards promise to open the high technology and aerospace, that violent backlash in societies where may expose companies to extra government market to suppliers who previously found the bidding xenophobia is common. Some of the scrutiny, due to national-security most fervent "culturist" movements process too difficult, costly, or just concerns. will spring from religious funda- confusing. mentalism. Would-be dictators and Implications: Demand for person- strongmen will use these movements nel in distant countries will increase Trends in Values, to promote their own interests, en- the need for foreign-language train- Concerns, and Lifestyles suring that ethnic, sectarian, and re- ing, employee incentives suited to gional violence will remain common. other cultures, aid to executives go- Terrorism especially will be a contin- ing overseas, and the many other as- pects of doing business in other uing problem. 8 Societal values are countries. As eastern Europe inte- Companies will hire ever more mi- changing rapidly. nority workers and will be expected grates more fully with the European to adapt to their values and needs. Union, a major investment in per- Industrialization raises educational levels, changes attitudes Much of the burden of accommodat- sonnel development will be needed ing foreign-born residents will con- over the next few years. toward authority, reduces fertility, al- tinue to fall on employers, who must The growth of commerce on the ters gender roles, and encourages make room for their languages and Internet makes it possible to shop broader political participation. This cultures in the workplace. globally for raw materials and sup- process is just beginning throughout However, the greatest responsibil- plies, thus reducing the cost of doing the developing world, point out so- ity will continue to fall on two public business. In niche markets, the Inter- cial researchers Ronald Inglehart and institutions: schools and libraries. net also makes it possible for small Wayne E. Baker (THE FUTURIST, companies to compete with giants Primary concerns for U.S. schools in- March-April 2001). worldwide with relatively little clude providing all students with a Developed societies will increas- solid grounding in English and find- investment. ingly take their cue from generations ing ways to recruit and reward the best teachers and weed out the least AUDIOVISUAL LIBRARY EUROPEAN COMMISSION effective. Public libraries act as sites for after-hours learning, reference fa- cilities, sources of Net access for those who do not have it at home, and bad-weather shelters for the homeless. They, too, require greater support. 151 The global economy is growing more integrated. Rather than paying salaries and benefits for activities that do not con- tribute directly to the bottom line, companies are farming out second- ary function to suppliers, service firms, and consultants, which increasingly are located in other Youth on the move in italy. Younger countries. generations increasingly have more in In the European Union, relax- common with their counterparts ation of border and capital controls around the world than they do with and the use of a common currency their own parents. are making it still easier for companies to farm out support functions Trend 8 throughout the Continent. 9 50 Trends Shaping the Future 7 If the current economic downturn ulations that can be expected within X and dot-corn, rather than the baby becomes unexpectedly deep or pro- boomers who have dominated west- the next five years. ern thinking for most of four longed, members of these genera- The demand for greater accounta- tions will find it difficult to cope. bility and transparency will be cru- decades. This will tend to homoge- They will need guidance from their cial, not only in the U.S. business nize certain basic attitudes through- boomer parents and World War II- community, but also for countries out the world, because Gen X'ers era grandparents, who have seen that wish to attract international and especially dot-corns around the hard times before. This could trigger globe have more in common with investors. a move to rehire older workers cut each other than with their parents. during the downsizing of the 1990s, In the future, both self-reliance and cooperation will be valued to restore or acquire the kind of insti- Young people place in- 9 tutional memory that helps compa- self-reliance because we will no creasing importance on eco- nies meet challenges not encoun- longer be able to fall back on Social tered regularly. That in turn could nomic success, which they Security, pensions, and other bene- create a generational conflict, as re- zause group ac- fits; cooperatio have come to expect. tirement-age candidates take jobs tion often is the best way to optimize Throughout the 1990seffec- that younger workers feel rightfully the use of scarce resources, such as belong to them. tively, their entire adult livesgener- retirement savings. If younger-generation workers ations X and dot-corn knew only Post-September 11 worry over find their ambitions thwarted, they good economic times, and the cur- terrorist attacks have led Americans rent economic downturn seems to will create growing pressure for eco- to accept almost without comment nomic reform and deregulation. If them a confusing aberration, rather security measures that their vaunted reforms do not come fast enough in than a predictable part of the busi- love of privacy once would have the developing world, disappointed ness cycle. Most expect to see hard- made intolerable. This continues a ship on a national level, but they long-established tendency in the expectations will raise the number of young people who emigrate to the United States to prefer a greater both want and expect prosperity for developed lands. sense of safety at the cost of greater themselves. Growing numbers of people Disappointment also will drive un- government surveillance and inter- deremployed young men in the de- now become entrepreneurs. Genera- vention in their lives. veloping world into fringe political tions X and dot-corn are the most Once national-security issues generations in entrepreneurial and religious movements. This could lose their immediacy, family issues cause a new wave of terrorism and will again dominate American history. In the United States especially, instability in the years after 2005 or so. society, at least through 2008: long- term health care, day care, early most young people have high aspira- tions, but many lack the means to childhood education, antidrug cam- 10 achieve them. Only one in three Tourism, vacationing, and paigns, and the environment. high-school graduates goes on to re- Narrow, extremist views of ei- travel (especially interna- ceive a college degree. Many of the ther the left or the right will slowly tional) will continue to grow in rest wish to go, but cannot afford the lose their popularity. Moderate Re- publicans and conservative Demo- high cost of further schooling. the next decade, as they did Without higher education, ex- crats will lead their respective par- throughout the 1990s. pectations may never be met: The ties. This trend has been reinforced real income of high-school graduates by the experience of recent presiden- People today have more dispos- has declined steadily for more than tial elections in which third-party able income, especially in two-earner 50 years. In addition, more young candidates siphoned votes from less- families. people report no earningsup from extreme main-party candidates. Many The number of Americans trav- 7% of all 20- to 24-year-old men in voters, feeling that a vote for an al- eling to foreign countries (excluding 1973 to a relatively constant 12% ternative candidate is tantamount to Canada and Mexico) increased at 5% a vote for the major opposition, are since 1984. per year from 1981 through 1996. Implications: This will prove to be likely to accept less doctrinal purity Once current worries over the threat a global trend, as members of gener- in their party's representatives. of terrorism recede, that growth will ations X and dot-corn tend to share Implications: The highly polarized resume and will continue for the political environment that has in- values throughout the world. Gen X foreseeable future. and dot-corn entrepreneurs are creasingly plagued the United States In the United States, domestic largely responsible for the current in the 1980s and 1990s will slowly tourism rebounded strongly in the economic growth in China, where moderate as results-oriented genera- first year after the terrorist attack of they are becoming a major force in tions X and dot-corn begin to domi- September 11, 2001. Travel to gam- the Communist party. In India, the nate the national dialogue. bling centers such as Las Vegas and younger generations dress and think Current accounting reforms are Atlantic City was first to revive. just the leading edge of a wave of like their American counterparts, not Through at least 2004, depressed their parents. stockholder protection laws and reg- 10 50 Trends Shaping the Future 8