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DOCUMENT RESUME UD 035 236 ED 468 066 Murphy, Patrick; Novak, Erin AUTHOR Coping with Teacher Shortages: A Resource Guide. TITLE Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, MD. SPONS AGENCY 2002-00-00 PUB DATE 71p.; Prepared by researchers at the University of San NOTE Francisco. Annie E. Casey Foundation, 701 St. Paul Street, Baltimore, MD AVAILABLE FROM 21202. Tel: 410-223-2890; Fax: 410-547-6624; Web site: http://www.aecf.org. Reference Materials Non-Classroom (055) Guides PUB TYPE Descriptive (141) Reports Directories /Catalogs (132) EDRS Price MF01/PC03 Plus Postage. EDRS PRICE Alternative Teacher Certification; Educational Policy; DESCRIPTORS Elementary Secondary Education; Higher Education; Preservice Teacher Education; Teacher Certification; Teacher Persistence; Teacher Recruitment; Teacher Selection; *Teacher Shortage; Urban Schools ABSTRACT This guide is intended to help education leaders deal with the problem of teacher shortages. It is designed to help community leaders and school officials think strategically about the problems they face with regard to the supply of teachers and help them develop an action plan to address those challenges. The first section provides a conceptual overview of the teacher shortage problem, noting how certain policies address specific elements of the shortage problem, which may or may not be relevant to a particular district. It also discusses the different policy options that exist to address specific elements of the shortage problem, and it examines the considerations that policymakers must keep in mind when weighing different policy alternatives. The second section presents information on 25 different programs that cover a wide spectrum in terms of their goals, focus, scale, and location. What they have in common is that they all address at least one particular element of the teacher shortage problem. The programs include national programs, alternative credentialing programs, accelerated credentialing programs, economic incentive programs, retention and teacher development, and leadership development programs. 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CASEY FOUNDATION BY PATRICK MURPHY AND ERIN ing with es c cher sh char te antis co ng acher sh h g w acher h s h te ag pin BEST COPY AVAILABLE ing with teach s sh ta s coping with tel shorta ac ta es coping with teacher 9 ier shortag ping with teache sh tages co ing w ortages coping ch ing with te 4,.. ortages coping with teacher shortag short g with tea ch ortages coping with teacher shortages coping with teacher ABOUT THE AUTHORS Patrick Murphy has a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Wisconsin at Madison and an M.P.A. from the University of Texas at Austin. He has been a researcher for the RAND Corporation and a budget examiner for the Office of Management and Budget in Washington, D.C. He currently teaches American politics and public administration at the University of San Francisco. His research has included studies of illicit-drug policy, public budgeting and finance, and education. His drug policy research includes reports on drug interdiction, drug problems in the Washington metropolitan area, the economics of drug dealing, and the management of drug policy. Dr. Murphy recently shifted the focus of his research to education issues. He is a senior research consultant with the Center for Reinventing Public Education at the University of Washington. He is the principal investigator on a national project examining how schools are coping with the recruitment of teachers in an era of shortage. Erin Novak is a graduate of the University of San Francisco with a major politics and a minor in environmental science. Her past projects included serving as an editor for Discourse, an interdisciplinary philosophy journal. She also was business manager for that publication. As a research consultant for the RAND Corporation, Ms. Novak has worked on a project to improve the federal drug czar's accounting for public anti-drug expenditures. Her plans include working in environmental policy, science, and management, focusing on forest and water resource management. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We wish to acknowledge the assistance provided by representatives of the programs highlighted in this publication. Their names appear in the program summaries in the second part of the guide. Their patience and respon- siveness are greatly appreciated. Paul Hill and Michael DeArmond of the University of Washington's Center for Reinventing Public Education and David Menefee-Libey of Pomona College provided guidance in the early stages of the project and offered comments on drafts. Heather Graham of the Annie E. Casey Foundation offered invaluable support and suggestions that improved the finished product significantly. All responsibility for mis- takes and oversights is ours. ©2002, The Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, Maryland Additional free copies of this report may be ordered from the Annie E. Casey Foundation by calling 410-223-2890 or by visiting the Foundation website, www.aecf.org. r-t1 CONTENTS Overview 3 Introduction 4 The Dimensions of the Problem 5 Unpacking the Problem: Supply and Demand 6 Too much demand? 7 Too little supply? 8 Matching Problems to Policies and Programs 11 More aggressive recruiting efforts/recruiting out of area 13 Alternative credentialing programs and recruiting midcareer/nontraditional applicants 13 Accelerated credentialing and waivers 17 Economic incentives 19 Streamlined/applicant-friendly hiring processes 23 Teacher retention 23 Some Strategic Considerations 26 A numbers game: Do the benefits justify the costs? 26 Who has control over which policy options? 26 Measuring performance 28 Zones of wishful thinking: How valid are our assumptions? 28 Conclusion: Pulling It Together 29 Program Summaries 31 National Programs 33 Alternative Credentialing Programs 38 Accelerated Credentialing Programs 45 Economic Incentive Programs 47 Retention and Teacher Development 53 Leadership Development Programs 61 Additional References and Resources 67 Overview .61471Lloill 7 \,,,, _ '--.--;:--- t ,, C ----- '-;-" . Fr \ it )A.'`" :, r ii f f % 1/ _min,,,v,,,,, \ ''''*!N \ ik% 5 Introduction relevant to a particular district. The guide then The term teacher discusses the different policy options that exist has become almost a cliché in education shortage circles. Regardless of the topic being dis- to address the specific elements of the shortage problem. Education leaders are encouraged cussedcurriculum development, reduction of to class sizes, education standardssomeone approach the issue strategically, carefully identi- can fying the nature of their shortage problem and use a sobering tone to interject, "Then, we have then match corresponding policies and to factor in the impact of programs Once teacher shortage." to it. In a more limited fashion, this discussion that is stated, all of the heads around the table also addresses the challenge of developing and will begin to nod. In fact, for some districts, the hiring school principals. Finally, the first uncertain supply of teachers has become the part concludes with an examination of the consider- proverbial 300-pound gorilla, overshadowing ations that policymakers should keep in mind any plans for the future. How can a school when weighing different policy alternatives. implement a program designed to expand the use of technology in the classroom when there is The second part of the guide presents informa- no one to teach the class? Or, how does a district tion on 25 different programs. These programs office oversee a series of performance-based cover a wide spectrum in terms of their goals, reforms when much of the staff is preoccupied focus, scale, and location. What they have in with trying to fill open teaching positions? Even common, however, is that they all are designed routine tasks, such as annual classroom configu- to address at least a particular element of the rations, are complicated by the fact that a dis- teacher shortage problem. Their presentation trict is still scrambling to find teachers in late here is organized relative to the framework dis- August. Finally, the question of quality lurks in cussed in section one. The presence of these pro- the background of all of these efforts, as admin- grams suggests that not only are many different istrators search for teachers among an increas- alternatives available, but that some jurisdictions ingly shrinking pool of applicants. have actually begun to implement them. Some of the programs presented in this section address This guide is intended to assist education lead- a related, but quite different personnel problem, ers in trying to deal with the problem of teacher that being the shortage of school leaders. These shortages. The guide is designed to assist com- programs, designed to develop and expand the munity leaders and school officials in thinking ranks of school principals and superintendents, strategically about the problems they face with offer a number of innovations in their regard to the supply of teachers and help them own right, and their structure may be of interest to develop an action plan to address those chal- to those dealing with teacher shortages lenges. Much of the discussion, then, is written as well. from the perspective of the individual district. While this guide is written as a source of assistance for an individual district, those interested The guide itself is divided into two parts. The in the issue of the supply of teachers and recruit- first section provides a conceptual overview of ment may find the discussion here useful. Its the teacher shortage problem. It unpacks the goal is to bring more order to the discussion of issue into several different components. It notes teacher shortages and public policy. By breaking how certain policies address specific elements of down the problem into its different elements, it the shortage problem, which may or may not be is hoped that the debate over policy options will 6 4 Many of these graduates, however, never enter be more focused and result in effective program the classroom. Also, a significant share of the choices. population of current teachers will leave the profession. U.S. Education Department statistics The dimensions of suggest that as many as 9 percent of new teach- the problem The forces driving ers quit during their first year of teaching and as many as one out of five will leave in the first the teacher shortage come straight out of an three years.' Some leave out of frustration with introductory economics class. On the one hand, the working environment, others to pursue dif- the demand for teachers has been growing over ferent professional opportunities, and many time. Expanding enrollments in some regions leave for personal reasons such as the birth of and a more general push for smaller classes have fueled much of the increase. It is a pattern that children or a spouse relocating to a new area. For an aging teacher population, however, retire- is expected to continue into the future. On the ment looms as one of the greatest future drains other hand, the supply of teachers is not expected on the pool of current teachers. Almost one-half to grow fast enough to keep pace. Traditional of current K-12 teachers will be eligible for college education programs continue to turn out The net result retirement in the next newly minted, credentialed teachers each year. 10 years.' THE DEMAND FOR NEWLY HIRED TEACHERS IN THE U.S. FIGURE 1 Annual Estimates for Different Pupil/Teacher Ratios 270 250 230 210 190 170 1 150 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Pupil/Teacher Constant Pupil/Teacher Falling Source: Hussar, W. J. Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-09 Washington, D.C.: National Center for Education Statistics, 1999. 7 5 The forces driving the teacher shortage come straight out of an introductory economics class. On the one hand, the demand for teachers has been growing over time ... On the other hand, the supply of teachers is not expected to grow fast enough to keep pace. of these forces is that the projected influx of three years. The same report noted that new state teachers will not be large enough to replace school districts had started the year with as those individuals who leave the profession and many as 2,000 positions unfilled.' Researchers meet the increased demand. The resulting gap in California estimate that as many as 300,000 between the supply of, and the demand for new teachers will be needed in that state over the teachers, leaves the nation without enough next 10 years.' Projections from the Florida teachers to fill its classrooms. Education Department suggest that the state will need about 12,000 more teachers per year The dimensions of the teacher shortage have been than are expected to be supplied.6 reported by a variety of sources and offer several different perspectives. At the national level, one of The New Mexico Department of Education the more commonly cited figures is the U.S. estimates that the state's public schools will need a total of Education Department's estimate of to add about 1,500 new teachers, or 8 percent of 2.4 million new teachers that will have to be hired its current 20,000 public school instructors.' In over the 11 years ending in 2008. That figure North Carolina, state education researchers cal- assumes that pupil/teacher ratios are held con- culate a shortage of more modest proportions. stant. Assuming that the trend continues toward They estimate that the current demand will out- smaller class sizes, the estimate jumps to 2.7 mil- strip supply by about 2,000 teachers over the lion. These figures translate into public schools next decadeless than 2 percent of the state's needing to hire between 210,000 and 260,000 elementary and secondary teacher population.' new teachers a year for several years into the future. About one-third of the new teacher hires Unpacking the will be needed for urban school districts.' problem: Supply Beyond this macro view, it is important to note and demand What one can con- that the shortage is not distributed evenly across dude from the press, government reports, and regions or subject areas. Estimates from individual academic publications is that overall there are states provide a sense of the degree of variation not enough teachers to go around. Given the across regions. For example, the Illinois State treatment of the issue, it would be easy to get the Board of Education estimates that it will need impression that the teacher shortage is a mono- an estimated 60,000 new teachers in the next lith. A closer examination of the problem, how- 8 6 being may be quite different from the concerns considerably more ever, reveals a situation that is confronted by another district. complicated. Immigration and demographic changes, for example, are driving up school Figure 2 presents a general model of the differ- enrollments in the Sunbelt states. The conse- effort to ent variables involved in a district's general. quence is a need for more teachers in match its demand for teachers with the available Other factors, such as classroom reduction poli- supply. It provides a framework for a systematic cies also drive up the demand for teachers. In approach to dealing with a district's teacher other parts of the country, the shortage mani- shortage problem. This approach begins by fests itself differently. Urban districts in the unpacking the larger problem into three subsets: Northeast have a difficult time finding math supply, demand, and retention. and science teachers, but find themselves in much less of a crisis mode regarding other areas. Too much demand? In short, the teacher shortage problem is actually Three main variables drive the demand for composed of several different components that teachers. The first, enrollment, is independent of vary as one moves from one region to the next. district decisions for the most part. It is, however, Though there are some shared elements, the critical for a district to have some idea as to what teacher shortage issues that one district faces the future holds with regard to the number of DEMAND A DISTRICT'S PERSPECTIVE OF TEACHER SUPPLY & FIGURE 2 Current/Former Enrollment Teachers Teacher Teacher Demand Supply District Policy New Entrants (e.g., class size) Exiting Returning Teachers Teachers Teacher Turnover 9 AVAILABLE BEST COPY 7 students that will be sitting in its classrooms. The important impact that retention can have Historical trends provide the best basis for esti- on the overall supply, composition, and quality mating future enrollments. The task of making of a district's teachers is discussed in greater such projections, however, is part science and detail below. part art as factors such as economic growth of A similar set of forces shapes the demand for the region, immigration, and changes in private school principals. As enrollments increase and schools can have a significant impact on future current principals reach retirement age, the need enrollments. Most districts already have processes for new school leaders expands. Assessing the to estimate future enrollment. Since it has become district's need for principals in the future, how- more and more difficult to hire teachers at the ever, might be easier simply because the absolute last minute, it would be worthwhile for a district numbers are smaller. to evaluate how accurate their enrollment projections are. And, given the competitive Too little supply? recruiting environment, those districts that are able to make their assessments earlier will have From the supply perspective, the teacher short- an advantage. age problem begins to take on several different hues. Regional differences, particularly prevail- Changes in district policies are a second source ing economic conditions, can produce significant of variation in the demand for teachers. A dis- variation in both the magnitude and type of trict that sets a maximum class size of 25 for its problem that a district is facing. The following elementary schools when it currently averages categories attempt to provide a framework for 28 students to a class will increase the number of understanding the shortage problem. teachers it will need. Policy changes can also affect the composition of a district's teacher demand. For example, if a district increases the number of math credits necessary for Not enough supply. In its most basic a high terms, school student to graduate, then it the shortage problem can be viewed may have as simply increased its demand for teachers with not having enough people apply for teaching a second- jobs. Consequently, there is a shortage of ary math credential. A district, of course, must make these types of policy decisions with the warm bodies to put in front of a classroom. As Figure 2 suggests, there are three potential goal of providing the best educational environ- contributors to the supply of teachers: ment possible. At the same time, their impact on current teachers, former teachers, and the district's demand for teachers and the new entrants. conse- Current teachers are already in the profession quences thereof should be part of the discussion. but working for another public school district Turnover in the current teaching staff is the or at a private school. They may or may not third element to affect future demand. The rela- already possess the necessary credentials to tionship is a straightforward one: The more teach in your district. Former teachers have teachers who leave, the greater the demand; the left the profession for a variety of reasons. fewer who leave, the smaller the demand. It may These may include changes in their personal be the case that a district's teacher shortage prob- life (new baby, caring for a parent, spousal re- lem may actually be a teacher retention problem. location), retirement or to embark on a new 10 8