ERIC ED418739: How Community Colleges Can Increase Enrollments During Times of Low Unemployment.

10 Pages·1998·0.8 MB·English

by  ERIC

DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 418 739
JC 980 198
AUTHOR
Sundberg, Lori L.
TITLE
How Community Colleges Can Increase Enrollments During Times
of Low Unemployment.
PUB DATE
1998-00-00
NOTE
11p.
PUB TYPE
Reports
Evaluative (142)
EDRS PRICE
MF01/PC01 Plus Postage.
DESCRIPTORS
*Community Colleges; *Comparative Analysis; Declining
Enrollment; *Enrollment Influences; Enrollment Management;
Enrollment Projections; Enrollment Rate; *Enrollment Trends;
High School Seniors; High Schools; Marketing; Program
Implementation; Two Year College Students; Two Year
Colleges; *Unemployment
IDENTIFIERS
*Carl Sandburg College IL
ABSTRACT
In comparing local unemployment rates with enrollments over
a 20-year period at Carl Sandburg College (CSC, Illinois), it was discovered
that there is only a moderate correlation between unemployment and
vocational, occupational, and GED enrollments, and no correlation at all with
enrollments in baccalaureate or transfer programs. These results suggest
that, against popular belief, community colleges need not suffer declines in
enrollment during periods of low unemployment. Colleges must simply shift
their efforts toward marketing those services and programs still in demand.
For example, CSC has focused on aggressively recruiting high school seniors,
people who are minimally affected by unemployment rates when making their
college decisions. The college also has initiated new vocational and
occupational programs that are in high demand in the district. These programs
admit people who have lost their jobs and help them to increase their earning
potential and obtain employment after graduation. As a result of its efforts,
CSC has seen a 1511 increase in enrollment, while other Illinois community
college enrollments have declined. This analysis illustrates the need to
accurately determine how unemployment rates affect enrollment at specific
schools, and how this information can be used to a school's advantage in its
marketing endeavors.
(YKH)
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How Community Colleges Can Increase Enrollments During
Times of Low Unemployment
By: Lori L. Sundberg
Carl Sandburg College
2232 S. Lake Storey Rd.
Galesburg, IL 61401
309-341-5242
EDUCATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
Improvement
Office of Educational Research and
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INFORMATION
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES
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This document has been reproduced
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received from the person or
L. Sundberg
originating it.
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Minor changes have been made
improve reproduction quality.
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6
It is a widely held belief that low unemployment rates gives rise to lower enrollments for
community colleges. The theory has held that during good economic times community colleges
typically struggle with maintaining enrollments, because with a strong economy there is no need
for people to attend school for additional training or skill enhancements. However, in analyzing
unemployment rates with enrollments at Carl Sandburg College over a 20-year period, there is in
fact, only a moderate correlation between enrollments in vocational, occupational, and GED and
unemployment. And more importantly, enrollments in baccalaureate or transfer programs are
entirely uncorrelated to unemployment rates. Understanding the differences in enrollment trends
during times of either high or low unemployment is crucial for a community college, because it
can allow the college to develop a competitive edge by marketing those areas still demanded
more effectively.
Quoting the 1996-97 American Association of Community College Annual Report for
Illinois "One reason for the loss of students is an ever-improving state economy." With more
effective and specific marketing, community colleges do not have to suffer declines in
enrollments during low unemployment times, but rather can shift its efforts to those markets still
being demanded. As an example, since 1994, Carl Sandburg College has enjoyed a 15 percent
increase in enrollments, while at the same time, community colleges across the state of Illinois,
where Carl Sandburg College is located, have suffered an overall 6 percent decline. Carl
Sandburg College has focused on more aggressively targeting high school seniors who are not
affected by unemployment rates when making their college decisions, and by initiating new
The next two
vocational or occupational programs that are highly demanded in the district.
charts illustrate overall unemployment rates and the corresponding trend line, and credit hour
enrollments at Carl Sandburg College with trend lines.
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To support the theory that low unemployment rates do not have to drive down
of credit-hour-data were regressed
20 years
against
community college
enrollments,
unemployment data. For Carl Sandburg College, there is a low correlation between total credit
hour enrollment and unemployment rates. The following statistics and graph better illustrates
this situation.
Multiple R
.26282
.06908
R Square
Adjusted R Square
.01736
Durbin Watson
.54894
.2629
Sig T
16
14'
12.
2 1 0
8
o 6
4.
2,
Rsq = 0.0691
60000
40000
50000
30000
Total annual hours
A more specific examination of credit hours was conducted by regressing baccalaureate
hours only with unemployment rates. As is evident from the following statistics and graph, there
is no correlation with baccalaureate hours.
Multiple R
.15974
6
R Square
.02552
Adjusted R Square
-.02862
Durbin Watson
.16988
Sig T
.5011
16
14
12
10
0
6
4
a)
C
2
Rsq = 0.0255
40000
20000
30000
10000
Annual baccalaureate hours
The final segment to examine is other types of enrollments in the College with the
exception of baccalaureate hours which would include vocational, GED, and occupational. This
is the area for Carl Sandburg College that is most affected by unemployment rates.
The
following statistics and graph better illustrates the relationship.
Multiple R
.61503
R Square
.37826
Adjusted R Square
.34372
Durbin Watson
.88303
Sig T
.0039
16
14
N
12'
10'
8'
6
4
2
Rsq = 0.3783
20000
24000
28000 32000
22000
26000
30000 34000
Annual vocational, occupational and GED hours
a widely held belief about community college enrollment and unemployment
Clearly,
rates is, in fact, true only for a particular segment of its enrollment. Baccalaureate students are
largely unaffected by unemployment, and therefore will still attend college somewhere upon
graduation from high school.
The question then becomes how to effectively market the college knowing that new high
school graduates will not be affected and that vocational, occupational, and GED students are
Carl Sandburg College began by targeting high school graduates in the
somewhat affected.
district, and aggressively recruiting its share of the market. In 1990-1991 Carl Sandburg College
recruited 29 percent of the total high school students who were college bound. In 1996-1997 the
College recruited 37 percent of high school students who were college bound. In actual numbers
this difference represents a 42 percent increase in the number of high newly graduated high
school students attending Carl Sandburg College.
In the area of vocational, occupational, and GED, the College found that when people
were steadily employed they had little incentive to attend college classes, and yet if they became
unemployed they would attend the college for re-training.
The college therefore decided to
10
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research those jobs that were most in demand in the district, and try to implement programs in
those areas. By bringing on programs that were highly demanded, those persons who had lost
their jobs could enroll at the College, and become gainfully employed upon graduation.
Bringing on these highly demanded programs also provided those people who were
under-employed, another segment of the College district, to have an opportunity to increase their
In the Carl Sandburg College district, those new programs implemented
earning capabilities.
include Mortuary Science, Emergency Medical Technician, Paramedic, and Desktop Publishing
to name a few. By implementing programs with a high need in the district, those persons who
at the College.
were unemployed or under-unemployed were more inclined to
enroll
Consequently, Carl Sandburg College has not experienced the decline in enrollments that other
community colleges suffer during years of low unemployment.
This analysis illustrates the need to accurately determine how unemployment rates and
enrollment can be analyzed to make better use of the marketing efforts of the college. Further, it
proves widely held beliefs do not necessarily hold true for every college or for every market
segment.
U.S. Department
ICI
of Education
Office of Educational
Research and
Improvement (OERO
Educational Resources
Info:ma:Ion Center (ERIC)
..644001.911.
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