ERIC ED392343: Enrollment and Degrees Report.

14 Pages·0.37 MB·English

by  ERIC

DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 392 343
HE 028 931
AUTHOR
Mulvey, Patrick J.
Dodge, Elizabeth
TITLE
Enrollment and Degrees Report.
INSTITUTION
American Inst. of Physics, New York, NY. Education
and Employment Statistics Div.
REPORT NO
AIP-R-151.32
PUB DATE
Jan 96
NOTE
14p.
AVAILABLE FROM
American Institute of Physics, One Physics Ellipse,
College Park, MD 20740-3843.
PUB TYPE
Reports
Descriptive (141)
Collected Works
Serials (022)
JOURNAL CIT
AIP Report; Jan 1996
EDRS ?RICE
MF01/PC01 Plus Postage.
DESCRIPTORS
Asian Americans; *Astronomy; *Bachelors Degrees;
Black Students; Departments; *Doctoral Degrees;
*Enrollment Trends; Graduate Study; Higher Education;
*Masters Degrees; Minority Groups; National Surveys;
*Physics; Racial Differences; Sex Differences; Trend
Analysis; Undergraduate Study
IDENTIFIERS
African Americans
ABSTRACT
This report presents the results of a 1994-95 survey
of U.S. colleges and universities offering doctorate, masters, and
bachelors degrees in physics and astronomy, focusing on degree
production and current student enrollment. It found that over the
last 3 years, first-year graduate physics enrollments have declined
22 percent at doctorate-granting departments and 17 percent at
masters-granting departments. The number of doctorates conferred has
increased 60 percent since 1980, and women have made slow but steady
gains among PhD recipients, with the PhD class of 1994 including 12
percent women. In 1994, 8 percent of the PhD-granting departments
produced 29 percent of the doctorates. Undergraduate physics
enrollments continued to decline, with junior enrollments dipping to
a 30-year low in 1994. While foreign student enrollments continue to
increase, especially in graduate programs, African-Americans and
Hispanic-Americans continued to be underrepresented among physics
graduates, while Asian-Americans continued to be overrepresented.
Physics departments continued to provide service courses for other
majors and enrolled approximately 360,000 students in introductory
physics courses in 1994-95. An appendix provides data on degree and
enrollment trends over the last 10 years. (MDM)
***********************************************************************
Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made
from the original document.
***********************************************************************
a-AMERICAN
INSTITUTE
oFPHYSICS
Tel. [phone]
EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT
One Physics Ellipse
STATISTICS DIVISION
College Park, MD 20740-3843
January 1996
A1P Pub No. R-151.32
by Patrick J. Mulvey
Elizabeth Dodge
DEGREES REPORT
ENROLLMENTS AND
1 11I1(.A114
T HO.
1)1 PABI'411 '41 01
C) BF_ P1-10O1 .(;(
1 '( 14M1!,1;10N
BY
'AAII-RIAI HAS BEEN GRANTED
INFOICMATION
I DU( ATIONAL HFSOUfiCIS
American Institute
NIC111E1-11C1
111, .1. lime. 11.i.. 1..111 '4`1"0011111 .'
W4tl,,,/.11+
tot ply,/ liii, tho
raglet,i1"q
of Physics
n).1.1,
1]
C C
tolowlik
II
RESOURCES
Ili 1111.,
VIC., II Op111100,
TO THE EDUCATIONAL
11I,11.111 CIO 1101 III, III Iv 1(111..('Ill
INFORMATION CENTER CERICI
0.tit 1.11 Ot
Cory
AVAILAB___LE_
AmERICANI
INSTITUTE
oFPHYSICS
One Physics Ellipse
EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT
Tel. [phone]
College Park, MD 20740-3843
STATISTICS DIVISION
AIP Pub No. R-151.32
by Patrick J. Mulvey
January 1996
Elizabeth Dodge
ENROLLMENTS AND DEGREES REPORT
HIGHLIGHTS
During the last 3 years, first-year graduate physics
Undergraduate
enrollments
physics
enrollments have declined 22% at doctorate-
continue to decline, with junior enrollments
granting departments and 17% at
dipping to a three decade low (Figure 2).
masters-
granting departments (Figure 6).
Departments with only undergraduate
Women have experienced slow but -.wady gains
among physics PhD recipients. The PhD class of
physics programs are generally small, with
1994 included 12% women (Figure 12).
three-quarters of them conferring fewer
than six degrees in the class of
1994
The number of physics doctorates conferred has
(Figure 3).
increased by 60% since 1980 (Table 1). For the
second straight year the number of astronomy
Physics departments continue to provide
other majors and
PhDs
service courses
conferred
100
for
exceeded
has
(Appendix A2).
enrolled approximately 360,000 students in
an introductory physics course in 1994-95
(Table 2).
Physics PhD production is not uniform across the
183 PhD-granting departments. For the class of
1994, 8% of the departments produced 29% of
the doctorates (Figure 11).
Much concern throughout the years has been directed
developing measures to improve the balance between
the supply
and demand for physics degree
at
supply and demand.
The supply is driven by decisions of
recipients.
of
hundreds
college
and
university
physics
The primary focus of this report is to track physics and
departments, thousands of individual studcnts and
astronomy degree production and to monitor current
scores of funding agencies. The demand responds to
student enrollment. As will be discussed in detail in
economic and political conditions on a national and
the pages to follow, recent declines in enrollments
global scale. In cases of disjuncture, as at present, there
foretell significant drops in degree production at both
is an increase in calls for assessing the situation and
the
doctorate
bachelors
and
physics
levels.
Member Societies The American Physical Society
Optical Society of America Acoustical Society of America
The Society of Rheology American Association of Physics Teache's
American Crystallographic Association American Astronomical Society American Association of Physicists in Medicine American Vacuum Society
American Geophysical Unicn
3
Unfortunately, these declines will not alleviate die
physics PhD production has continunlly gone through
employment difficulties being experienced by many of
periods of major shifts. These shifts mirror changes in
today's graduates.
the total doctorate production in all disciplines through
the 1960s. Subsequently the curves diverge
- national
The Education and Employment Statistics Division of
PhD production leveled off while physics doctorate
the American Institute of Physics has been conducting
production fell sharply during the 1970s and then
the Survey of Enrollments and Degrees for over thirty
rebounded equally rapidly during the 1980s and early
years. This report series provides data that reflect the
90s. These changes have occurred in response to forces
historical trends in physics and astronomy education.
and events in the larger society, including hot and cold
Conducted during the fall of 1994 and winter of 1995,
wars, economic Fooms and recessions, waves of
the
survey
degree-granting
asked
and
physics
immigation, seesawing government policies and
astronomy departments to provide undergraduate and
public attitudes toward science, as well as in response
graduate enrollments, as well as the number of degrees
to dynamics internal to the physics community. The
conferred during the prior academic year.
recent changes in enrollment patterns, which will be
discussed later in this report, suggest that these
fluctuations-An degree production are far from over.
The response rate for this survey was very good. All of
the PhD departments and 9 out of 10 of the masters
and bachelors-granting departments provided the
The production of PhDs in physics has varied greatly
requested information. (Estimates were developed for
over time, but for the last two decades the number of
non-reporting departments based on information they
departments offering a PhD has remained quite stable.
supplied in previous years.)
level of
It
The number of bachelors- and masters-granting
this
is
involvement and cooperation on the part of the physics
departments, in contrast, has shown considerable
and astronomy departments across the country that
decline. Table 1 shows the number of departments
makes it possible for us to provide an accurate picture
categorized by highest degree offered going back to
of the current situation for physics graduates and
1975.
a
The relative stability among the PhD-granting
reliable set of historical trends against which to
departments masks minor shifts that occur annually as
compare that picture.
graduate
programs
expanded,
are
created
or
discontimied. Throughout this report, the enrollments
Almost a century of US physics doctorate production
and degree production data will be broken out by these
is presented in Figure 1. This graph demonstrates that
three types of degree-granting departments.
Figure 1. Number of physics PhDs conferred in the
United States,1900 to 1994.
1800
1400
1200
1000
Number of
degrees
800
800
400
200
0
1900
20
10
40
30
50
80
70 80
90
Year
Soumes: ACE (1900-19), NAS (1920-81), AIP (1982-94)
2
important function of almost all physics departments is
Table 1. Departments by highest physics degree
to provide introductory physics courses for both
offered, 1975-1995.
science and non-science majors (See Table 2). These
courses are often tailored to .the needs of a student's
Bachelors-
Masters-
Doctorate-
Academic
potential major, with the amount of math background
granting
granting
granting
year
required varying by type of major. The calculus-based
559
121
1974-75
171
courses tend to service the engineering and physical
science majors. A background in algebra is required
96
501
1979-80
175
for most of the courses desigrw.d for the life science
487
90
1984-85
173
majors. Finally, the courses with no math prerequisite
are geared primarily for the
social science and
496
86
1989-90
176
humanities majors. The overwhelming "service course"
485
1994-95
character of the introductory physics courses can be
76
183
seen in the fact that only a small fraction ( <2%) of the
students taking these courses eventually end up with a
Tables Al and A3 in the appendix of this report
physics bachelors degree.
present ten years of data on physics degree production
and enrollments at these departments. A decade of
astronomy totals are presented in Table A2, also in the
Introductory enrollments are not evenly distributed
appendix. In addition, the Education and Employment
Statistics Division annually publishes Rosters of
across all departments. Categorizing the departments
by the highest physics degree offered shows that over
Physics and Astronomy Departments which include
information on Enrollments and Degrees at the
half of the introductory courses are taught at the large
research universities, which comprise only one-quarter
department level.
of the departments included in the study.
These
doctor-tr,-granting departments also have the greatest
INTRODUCTORY ENROLLMENTS
prop( rtion of their courses requiring a background in
calcu us. This may reflect a higher proportion of the
undergraduates majoring in engineering at these
In addition to offering a full range of courses leading to
an undergraduate or graduate degree in physics, an
universities.
Table 2. Number of students enrolling in their first college / university introductory
physics course, academic year 1994-95.
Math background required for course
Highest degree of
No college
math
Total
Calculus
Algebra
physics dept.
%
101,000 70,000
Doctorate-granting 36,000 207,000
58
49%
34%
100%
17%
19,000
Masters-granting
14,000
48,000
15,000
13
29% 40%
31%
100%
35,000 38,000
32,000
Bachelors-granting
29
105,000
33%
36%
31% 100%
160,000
127,000
83,000
360,000
Totals
35%
42%
100%
23%
Note: Only colleges and universities offering at least a bachelors degree in physics arc included in this table.
UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENTS / DEGREES
Figure 2. Undergraduate physics enrollments and degrees,
1986-1995.
Though students may begin their college education
,.
8000
having decided upon a potential major, it's often not
Seniors
until their junior year that they are required to declare
7000
one. Focusing on the trend of junior enrollments as a
6000-
reliable predictor of future bachelors production,
ow
Figure 2 shows that
Ns
substantial
in
decline
a
Bacheloes degrees
4000-
undergraduate degrees is imminent. The number of
juniors has dropped 13% since 1992, bringing this
3000-
year's total to a level not seen since the 30-year low
2000
reached around 1980. (The number of seniors enrolled
1000
is not as effective a predictor of future degrees due to
the number of students who maintain senior status for
0
1985-86
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
more than one year before receiving their degrees.)
Academic Year
The downturn in the number of junior level physics
majors since 1992 is not uniform across department
These different rates of change are superimposed
on an
type. The greatest decline (24%) has occurred at the
already uneven enrollment distribution
among the
The decline at the
masters-granting departments.
departments
at
different
degree-granting
levels.
doctoral-granting departments was 13%, and still
Figure 3 presents this imbalance for the bachelors
smaller declines occurred at the bachelors-granting
degrees conferred in the class of 1994. The doctorate-
departments with a decline of 8%. It is not currently
granting departments, which represent one quarter of
clear why there is such a disproportionate drop in
the departments that grant bachelors degrees in
junior enrollments across department type.
physics, produced almost half of the
bachelors
conferred. These larger research departments
average
about three times the number of physics graduates
per
department as bachelors-only departments and twice
as
many as the masters departments.
Figure 3. Distribution of physics bachelors degrees by highest
degree offered at the physics departrneni, 1994.
Figure 4 further illustrates how the
size of a
department's undergraduate class varies by highest
so
physics degree offered.
Among four-year colleges,
40
75% of the degrms came from small departments with
five or fewer degrees being conferred. The
masters
departments had a similar distribution, with the smaller
departments producing the majority of their bachelors
degrees. The doctorate departments, in
contrast, have
a different profile, with an overall average of about 13
bachelors per department.
This figure is greatly
influenced by a small number of departments that
Bachelors-
Masters-
Doctorate-
conferred 20 or more degrees.
These 32 large
granting
granting
granting
departments (496 of all departments) together produce
66%
% of depts
10%
24%
almost a quarter of all bachelors degrees in physics for
the class of 1994.
6
4
Figure 5. Physics bachelors production In the US,
Figure 4. Distribution of bachelors degrees by department
1955-1994.
type and number of degrees granted, class of 1994.
6000
BACHELORS-GRANTING DEPTS.
50
5000
40
Distribution of
485 depts.
30 -
4000
Bachelors degrees
degrees (%)
1967 degrees
20
3000 -
10
Number of degrees
0
granted in 1994
1 -15
16-20 21+
8-10
0-6
2000
m
:y.ockquimmts
5
75
1 1
1000 -
MASTERS-GRANTING DEPTS.
55 57 59 61 6.3 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 88 90 92 94
so
Year
40 -
Note: Degrees are reported using three-year averages
Distribution of
30
76 depts.
degrees (%)
497 degrees
20 -
10 -
Number of degrees
0
granted In 1994
21+
0-6 6-10
11-15
16-20
3
26
% of departments
9
59
1
UNDERGRADUATE WOMEN AND MINORITIES
DOCTORATE-GRANTING DEPTS.
50
40
group that
been
historically
Women,
has
a
30 -
Distribution of
176 depts.
underrepresented among physics
students,
have
degrees (%)
7^
2207 degrees
20
Their overall
registered slow gains in recent years.
10 -
share of physics bachelors degrees has risen to 17% for
Number of degrees
}
0
granted in 1494
6-10 10-20
11-15 21+
0-5
the class of 1994, from 14% a decade earlier. As was
in years past, women w ere slightly better
10
16
% of departments
30
12
31 true
represented at the bachelors-granting institutions than
at the doctorate-granting ones, with 18% and 16%
respectively.
Bachelors degree totals have been declining in recent
When considering the representation of minorities
years. Last year the group exhibited a 4% drop, and
among the bachelors, Table 3 does not take into
has now declined a total of 8% during the last five
consideration the 7% of the bachelors in the class of
decline, which the undergraduate
This
years.
1994 with foreign citizenship. African-Americans and
enrollment figures suggest will continue, comes at a
Hispanics continue to be underrepresented among the
time when total bachelors degree production in this
undergraduate degree recipients in physics.
Asian-
Four decades of physics
country is
increasing.
Americans, in contrast, continue to be overrepresented
production
in
degree presented
are
bachelors
among physics bachelors.
Figure 5.
7
5
During the 1990s much attention has been given to the
Table 3. Number of physics bachelors degrees
mismatch of students receiving doctorates and the
granted to US citizens by minority / ethnic group
number of available employment positions. The supply
status, class of 1994
end of this imbalance is starting to adjust with first-
Ethnic group
Number
Percent
year graduate physics student enrollments declining for
the third consecutive year. The drop was 10% last year
White
3774
88
and 21% since ? 992 and has occurred among both US
4
African-American
180
and non-US students (See Figure 6). A decline of this
amplitude has not been seen since the early 1970s, also
4
Asian
163
a period of poor employment prospects for physics
doctorates.
Hispanic
103
2
Other
63
1
There are two main controlling factors which influence
first-year student enrollments: the departments and the
4283
Total US citizens
100%
The departments may be reducing the
students.
Note: Total does not add to 100% due to rounding
number of students they accept due to budget
restrictions, fewer qualified applicants, or efforts to
reduce the number of students who ultimately get a
GRADUATE STUDENTS
physics PhD. From the student perspective, therc may
be fewer students applying to physics graduate
Traditionally, a substantial proportion of those earning
departments, either because they are stoppiag their
bachelors degrees in physics go on to pursue a higher
education at an earlier point or because they are
degree in the field. About one-third of recent physics
choosing other fields to pursue. Both of these factors
bachelors planned on immediately entering graduate
could be seen as reactions to the current shortage of
study in physics.
By the same token, a bachelors
available employment positions for PhD physicists.
degree
in
predominates
physics
among
the
These declines, regardless of the cause, are not likely to
undergraduate backgrounds of the first-year graduate
reverse themselves until the job market for PhD
physics students, with about 90% having received that
scientists rebounds.
degree.
Figure 6. First-year US and foreign graduate physics students,
1976 to 1995.
-
-
3500
,....`...'
.-
.-
3000
-_,
2500
Number of
first-year
2000
jr,..
.,
students
,,
`....
\
1500
1000
US
500
Foreign
OTotal
1976
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995
Year
Note: Refinement in wording may slightly raise the 1995 foreign citizen totals
relative to
that reported in earlier years.
'''''
First-year student enrollments have been dropping at
both masters- and doctorate-granting departments.
Figure 8. Percent of total first-year graduate students
Our attention will now focus on the doctorate
enrolled by rank* of department, 1989-1995.
departments where the student declines have been the
50
greatest, in an attempt to foresee where the impending
-
High
declines in doctorate production will be concentrated.
40
Figure 7 and 8 show the distribution of first-year
Medium
30
students at doctorate-granting departments when
categorized by size and ranking of department.
Low
Although the past three years has seen a dramatic
10
overall decline of 22% in first-year enrollments at PhD
departments, the distribution of first-year students
0
when divided by these departmental characteristics has
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
remained relatively stable. The slight decline among
Departmental reputation rankings are taken from "Art Assessment of
larger departments, as seen in Figure 7, may result
Research Doctorate Programs In the United States: Mathematical &
Physical Sciences'. NAP 1982. Unranked departments are not included.
ability to modestly reduce first-year
from their
enrollments without drastically reducing their overall
Figure 8 separates the first-year
department size.
student enrollments by departmental ranking. The
Graduate students
masters-granting departments.
stability of the first-year student enrollments when
attending the doctorate-granting departments are more
divided in this manner, indicates uniform declines
likely to be enrolled on a full-time basis and include
across departments of varying ranks.
44% non-US
The masters-granting
citizens.
departments have a smaller proportion of full-time
students and contain only 34c;6 non-US citizens.
Appendix Tables Al and A3 show the totals for
These dwindling first-year enrollments are being
graduate student enrollments with breakdowns by
reflected in reductions in total graduate physics
department type for the last ten years.
Since 1992, the total graduate physics
enrollments.
enrollments have declined by 8%, with a 6% drop at
the doctorate-granting departments and 17% at the
GRADUATE DEGREES
Figure 7. Percent of total first-year graduate students
enrolled by size* of department, 1989-1995.
The first degree option available to a graduate student
50
in physics is the masters degree. This degree can be
''''Medium
earned in three very different ways.
40
Large
30
1. A student may earn a Masters Enroute to obtaining
In 1994, about 2/3 of the PhDs reported
a PhD.
20
having received physics masters degrees at some point
10
in their graduate careers.
0
1992-93
1994-95
1988-89
1990-91
2. A student may earn a Professional Masters as the
Size was determined by averaging the 1988-89 and 1989-90 first-year
intended outcome of the graduate program in which
students classes for each department. There were 89 small departments
with 0-10 first-year students, 83 medium departments with 11-25 first-year
Since the highest degree available at
they enrolled.
students and 29 large departments with 26 or more first-year students.
some departments is the mastcrs, all degrees granted
those
considered
departments
from
will
be
a
7
This degree may also be the
Professional Masters.
intended outcome of students enrolled in a masters
Figure 9. Physics masters degrees awarded In the US,
program within a department that also offers the
1984.1994.
doctorate.
1200
Masters Enroute to PhD
1000
3. A student may start out enrolled in a PhD program,
800
but then leave with only a masters. Degrees earned in
Professional / Terminal Masters
600
this manner have been labeled Terminal Masters and
can only be earned from a department that grants
400
PhDs.
200
0
1993-94
1991-92
1985-86 1989-90
1987-88
1983-84
Students who earn Masters Enroute degrees are easily
Acaderric year
distinguished by the continued enrollment in that
department, but the distinction between Professional
and Terminal Masters at the doctoral departments is
harder to discern from departmental records alone,
As noted above, declining Masters Enroute degrees in
since it involves a student's initial intentions as well as
Figure 9 is an indicator of fewer students currently
For this reason, these two latter degree
outcomes.
pursuing a doctorate degree. An even more telling
tvpes are grouped together in one category in this
indicator may be the number of first-year students
report.
enrolling at PhD-granting departments, as not all
graduate students obtain the intermediate masters
degree. Figure 10 plots both first-year enrollments
Figure 9 presents the trend in masters degree
Given the
and PhD production by academic year
roughly seven-year lag between first-war graduate
production for the last decade. The drop in Masters
enrollment and receiving a PhD, one call project the
Enroute coincides with declining first-year graduate
imminent leveling and then steady decline in PhD
enrollments and is a precursor of the impending fall-off
This fall-off may be further
in PhD production.
production.
accelerated by the other trend in Figure 9, the jump in
Professional/Terminal Masters degrees, which
is
especially concentrated in PhD-granting departments.
This jump may be attributable to students exiting
Figure 10. First-year graduate student enrollment and PhD
doctorate studies early with only a masters degree.
production at US Doctorate-granting departments, 1980 - 1995.
3000 1
2500
"
'"
First-year students
Interestingly, twice as many Professional/Terminal
2000
Masters were conferred at doctorate departments as at
t
Overall, 15% of thc
master-granting departments.
1500
1994 Professional/Terminal Masters recipients were
1000
women and 43% were foreign
The
citizens.
PhDs
of
500
US
proportion
earning
minorities
Professional/Terminal Masters
the
low
ls
as
is
0
proportion earning physics bachelors.
1985
1982
1979 1988 1994
1991
-83
-85
-89
-80
-95
-92
Academic Year
8