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0(i^ ENVIRONMENTAL RESTRUCTURING OF THE ONTARIO ECONOMY SEPTEMBER 1994 ® Ministryof Environment Ontario and Energy ISBN 0-7778-2747-6 ENVIRONMENTAL RESTRUCTURING OF THE ONTARIO ECONOMY SEPTE®MBER 1994 Cette publication technique n'est disponible qu'en anglais. Copyright: Queen's Printerfor Ontario, 1994 This publication may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes with appropriate attribution. PIBS 3227E ENVIRONMENTAL RESTRUCTURING OF THE ONTARIO ECONOMY Report prepared by: The ARA Consulting Group Inc. Infometrica Ltd. December, 1993 Report prepared for: Ontario Ministry ofEnvironment and Energy ACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND DISCLAIMER This report was prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Environment and Energy as part of a Ministry funded project. The views and ideas expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Ministry of the Environment and Energy, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsements or recommendation for use. The Ministry, however, encourages the distribution of information and strongly supports technology transferanddiffusion. Any person whowishes torepublish partorall ofthis report should apply for permission to do so to the Ontario Ministry ofEnvironment and Energy, 135 St. Clair Avenue West, Toronto, Ontario, M4V 1P5, Canada. Copyright: Queen's Printer for Ontario, 1994. This publication may be reproduced for non- commercial purposes with appropriate attribution. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1-1 2.0 THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF ONTARIO 2-1 2.1 Economie and Environmental Restrueturing 2-1 2.1.1 Economie Restrueturing - Industrial Composition 2-1 2.1.2 Environmental Restrueturing 2-2 2.2 Elements ofStruemral Change 2-4 2.2.1 Demographies 2-5 2.2.2 International Conditions 2-6 2.2.3 Domestic Government Policy 2-8 . 2.2.4 Resource Endowments, Specialization and Technology ....... 2-9 2.2.5 Investment and Savings 2-11 2.3 Historical Analysis: Economie Change in Ontario 1971-1990 . 2-13 2.3.1 Population and the Labour Force 2-13 2.3.2 Trade, Technology, Employmentand Labour Productivity 2-16 2.3.3 Investment and Savings 2-16 2.3.4 Industrial Composition 2-17 2.3.5 Other Measures ofIndustrial Structural Change 2-22 2.4 Historical Analysis: Environmental Change in Ontario 2-24 2.4.1 Resource and Material Use 2-24 2.4.2 Sustainable Development in Ontario 2-34 2.4.3 International Comparisons 2-36 2.5 Summary 2-41 3.0 FIVE PROJECTIONS FOR ONTARIO'S ECONOMY (1992-2010) 3-1 3.1 The Base Case/Slow Growth 3-3 3.1.1 Background and Key Assumptions 3-3 3.1.2 The Base Case Scenario for 1992 to 2010 3-8 3.2 Scenario 1 - International Expansion/Stronger Growth 3-17 3.3 Scenario 2 - Labour Productivity/Strongest Growth ............. 3-24 3.4 Scenario 3 - Environmental Initiatives 3-28 3.5 Scenario 4 - The Impacts ofIndustrial Composition 3-43 3.6 Summary 3-54 4.0 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS .... 4-1 4.1 Framework 4-1 4.1.1 Structure ofthe Environmental Indicators 4-1 1 4.1.2 Environment/Economy Linkages 4-5 4.1.3 PropertiesofEnvironmentalIndicatorsandEnvironment/Economy Linkages 4-6 4.2 Derived Set ofIndicators 4-10 4.2.1 Indicators ofWaste Generation 4-14 4.2.2 Indicators ofResource Use 4-15 4.2.3 Indicators ofEnergy Use 4-16 4.2.4 Indicator Values 4-16 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF RESTRUCTURING 5-1 5.1 Measures ofEnvironmental Changes 5-1 5.2 Implications ofRestructuring—Waste Generation 5-2 5.2.1 Air Emissions 5-2 5.2.2 Industrial Water Discharges 5-11 5.2.3 Solid Waste 5-16 5.3 Implications ofRestructuring—Resource Use 5-18 5.3.1 Water Use 5-18 5.3.2 Mineral Production 5-21 5.3.3 Fertilizer Use 5-24 5.3.4 Roundwood Production .....*. 5-24 5.4 Implications ofRestructuring-Energy Consumption 5-24 5.5 Environmental Implications ofEconomic Growth 5-26 5.6 Agriculmre, Land Use, Wetlands and Wildlife 5-29 5.7 Summary ofthe Environmental Implications ofRestrucmring 5-35 6.0 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 6-1 6. Macroeconomic Policies and Growth 6-2 6.2 Regulatory Policy and Resource Allocation 6-3 6.3 Trade Policy, Competitiveness and Environment 6-4 6.4 Industrial Policy and Environmental Protection Industries 6-6 6.5 Environmental Quality and Economic Welfare 6-8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE 7.0 RESEARCH 7-1 BIBLIOGRAPHY GLOSSARY OF TERMS Appendix 1 - Environmental Indicators Appendix 2 - Background on the Econometric Models and Simulations