Environmental Policy and the Choice of Abatement Technique

47 Pages·2001·0.59 MB·English

Hqylurqphqwdo Srolf| dqg wkh Fkrlfh ri Dedwhphqw Whfkqltxh=
Hylghqfh iurp Frdo0(cid:31)uhg Srzhu Sodqwv(cid:6)
Qdwkdqlho R1 Nhrkdqh
Devwudfw
Wklv sdshu dqdo|}hv wkh lpsdfw ri hqylurqphqwdo srolf| lqvwuxphqwv rq wkh fkrlfh ri sro0
oxwlrq frqwuro whfkqltxhv1 L (cid:31)uvw uhfdvw wkh h{lvwlqj wkhruhwlfdo prgho ri srooxwlrq dedwhphqw
whfkqrorj| fkrlfh1 Suhylrxv vwxglhv kdyh irxqg wkdw wkh frvw vdylqjv wr d (cid:31)up wkdw dgrswv d
whfkqlfdo lqqrydwlrq lq srooxwlrq frqwuro duh juhdwhu xqghu d pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw/ vxfk dv
dq hplvvlrqv wd{ ru wudghdeoh shuplw v|vwhp/ wkdq xqghu d frppdqg0dqg0frqwuro lqvwuxphqw
vxfk dv dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug1 L vkrz wkdw wklv uhvxow lv pruh jhqhudo wkdq suhylrxvo|
uhfrjql}hg= lq sduwlfxodu/ lw krogv zkhwkhu wkh qhz whfkqltxh lv pruh fdslwdo lqwhqvlyh +dv lq
suhylrxv prghov, ru ohvv fdslwdo lqwhqvlyh1 Khqfh/ wkh fkrlfh ri whfkqltxh e| (cid:31)upv vkrxog eh
pruh uhvsrqvlyh wr dedwhphqw frvwv xqghu pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqwv1
Lwkhqsurylghdqhpslulfdowhvwriwkhwkhruhwlfdosuhglfwlrqv/xvlqjgdwdiurpvxoixuglr{lgh
uhjxodwlrq ri frdo0(cid:31)uhg hohfwulf srzhu sodqwv1 P| sulqflsdo (cid:31)qglqj lv wkdw hohfwulf jhqhudwlqj
xqlwv vxemhfw wr d wudghdeoh shuplwv uhjlph zhuh lqghhg pruh uhvsrqvlyh wr dedwhphqw frvwv
wkdq xqlwv xqghu dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug1 Wkdw lv/ d jlyhq fkdqjh lq wkh dyhudjh frvw ri
vfuxeelqjrufrdo0vzlwfklqjkdgdjuhdwhulpsdfwrqwkhsuredelolw|rivfuxeelqjiruxqlwvxqghu
wkhpdunhw0edvhguhjlph1 Ldovr(cid:31)qgwkdworqj0whupfrdofrqwudfwv/uhjlrqdoorfdwlrq/dqgxwlolw|
rzqhuvkls fodvv kdg vljql(cid:31)fdqw h(cid:30)hfwv rq wkh fkrlfh ri dedwhphqw whfkqltxh1
4 Lqwurgxfwlrq
D fhqwudo lvvxh lq wkh hfrqrplf dqdo|vlv ri hqylurqphqwdo srolf| lv wkh rswlpdo fkrlfh ri srolf|
lqvwuxphqw1 Lq wkh vkruw uxq/ ri frxuvh (cid:24) wkdw lv/ iru (cid:31){hg dedwhphqw whfkqrorjlhv (cid:24) pdunhw0edvhg
lqvwuxphqwv vxfk dv hplvvlrqv wd{hv dqg wudghdeoh shuplwv duh frvw0h(cid:30)hfwlyh= lq wkhru|/ wkh| fdq
dfklhyh d jlyhq srooxwlrq frqwuro wdujhw dw plqlpxp frvw1 (cid:19)Frppdqg dqg frqwuro(cid:20) lqvwuxphqwv/
vxfk dv hplvvlrqv vwdqgdugv/ duh lq jhqhudo qrw frvw h(cid:30)hfwlyh> d uhtxluhphqw wkdw doo (cid:31)upv phhw
d xqlirup vwdqgdug zloo phdq wkdw pdujlqdo dedwhphqw frvwv ydu| dprqj khwhurjhqhrxv (cid:31)upv/ vr
wkdw ryhudoo frvwv frxog eh uhgxfhg e| uhdoorfdwlqj srooxwlrq frqwuro uhvsrqvlelolw|14
WWklvuhvhdufkzdvvxssruwhge|jhqhurxvihoorzvklsviurpUhvrxufhviruwkhIxwxuhdqgiurpwkhJudgxdwhVfkrro
riDuwvdqgVflhqfhvdwKduydugXqlyhuvlw|1 Wudyhovxssruwzdvdovrsurylghge|wkhFhqwhuiruHqhuj|dqgHqylurq0
phqwdo Srolf| Uhvhdufk dw wkh Pdvvdfkxvhwwv Lqvwlwxwh ri Whfkqrorj|1 Wkdqnv duh gxh wr Ghqq| Hoohupdq/ Urehuw
Vwdylqv/FkulvDyhu|/MlpVq|ghu/UxehqOxerzvnl/Ulfkdug]hfnkdxvhu/dqgDgdpMd(cid:30)hirukhosixofrpphqwv1 Dq|
uhpdlqlqj huuruv/ ri frxuvh/ duh plqh dorqh1
4 Iru uljrurxv ghyhorsphqw ri wkhvh zhoo0nqrzq uhvxowv/ vhh Edxpro dqg Rdwhv +4<;;,1
4
Pdunhw0edvhg srolf| lqvwuxphqwv duh dovr wkrxjkw wr surylgh dgydqwdjhv ryhu frppdqg0dqg0
frqwuro lqvwuxphqwv ryhu wkh orqj uxq1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ vhyhudo wkhruhwlfdo vwxglhv kdyh irxqg wkdw
wkh lqfhqwlyh wr dgrsw qhz/ orzhu0frvw dedwhphqw whfkqrorjlhv lv juhdwhu xqghu pdunhw0edvhg lq0
vwuxphqwv/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkrvh lqvwuxphqwv zloo dovr eh vsxuv wr juhdwhu lqqrydwlrq dqg wkxv
orzhu dedwhphqw frvwv lq wkh orqj whup1 Krzhyhu/ wkhuh kdv ehhq olwwoh hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv ri wkhvh
suhglfwlrqv1 Wklv sdshu vwxglhv srooxwlrq dedwhphqw whfkqltxh fkrlfhv e| (cid:31)upv/ lq rughu wr whvw
wkh wkhruhwlfdo suhglfwlrq wkdw srolf| lqvwuxphqwv gl(cid:30)hu lq wkhlu h(cid:30)hfwv rq dgrswlrq ri qhz whfk0
qrorjlhv1 Dorqj wkh zd|/ zh uhfdvw wkh wkhruhwlfdo prgho ri whfkqrorj| fkrlfh wr pdnh lw vrphzkdw
pruh jhqhudo dqg wr surylgh d qhz/ lqwxlwlyh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh juhdwhu dgrswlrq lqfhqwlyh xqghu
pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqwv1
Dq dssursuldwh vwduwlqj srlqw iru dq| glvfxvvlrq derxw whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh lv wkh iudphzrun
lqwurgxfhg e| Vfkxpshwhu +4<6<,1 Kh glvwlqjxlvkhg wkuhh skdvhv= lqyhqwlrq +lq zklfk wkh fuhdwlrq
ri d qhz surgxfw ru surfhvv lv frqfhswxdol}hg,> lqqrydwlrq +lq zklfk wkh qhz surgxfw ru surfhvv lv
eurxjkwwrpdunhw,>dqggl(cid:30)xvlrq+lqzklfkwkhsurgxfwrusurfhvvlvdgrswhge|xvhuvlqdqlqgxvwu|
ruwkhhfrqrp|1, Zhirfxvrqwkhwklugvwhs(cid:24)pruhvshfl(cid:31)fdoo|/rqwkhlqglylgxdodgrswlrqghflvlrqv
wkdw wrjhwkhu pdnh xs gl(cid:30)xvlrq ri d whfkqrorj|1 Wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri hqylurqphqwdo uhjxodwlrqv vxfk dv
hplvvlrqv vwdqgdugv ru wd{hv qhfhvvdulo| zrun e| lq xhqflqj wkh fkrlfhv (cid:31)upv pdnh derxw krz wr
frqwuro srooxwlrq (cid:24) wkdw lv/ e| lq xhqflqj ghflvlrqv derxw wkh dgrswlrq ri dedwhphqw whfkqltxhv1
(cid:19)Xsvwuhdp(cid:20) h(cid:30)hfwv (cid:24) iru h{dpsoh/ lqqrydwlrq ri orzhu0frvw dedwhphqw whfkqltxhv (cid:24) duh lqgluhfw/
phgldwhg e| wkh ghpdqg iru qhz whfkqrorjlhv wkdw lv fuhdwhg e| wkh hqylurqphqwdo uhjxodwlrq1
Wklv sdshu (cid:31)uvw ghyhorsv d vlpsoh wkhruhwlfdo prgho ri dedwhphqw whfkqltxh fkrlfh xqghu gli0
ihuhqw srolf| lqvwuxphqwv/ zlwk dq h|h wrzdugv jhqhudwlqj hpslulfdoo| whvwdeoh k|srwkhvhv1 Wkh
edvlf suhglfwlrqiurp wkh wkhruhwlfdo prgho lv wkdw (cid:31)upv zloo eh pruh vhqvlwlyh wrfkdqjhv lq dedwh0
phqw frvw xqghu d pdunhw0edvhg srolf| +vxfk dv d wd{ ru d v|vwhp ri wudghdeoh doorzdqfhv, wkdq
xqghu dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug1 Wklv frqfoxvlrq djuhhv zlwk zhoo0nqrzq uhvxowv lq wkh h{lvwlqj
olwhudwxuh1 Krzhyhu/ zh vkrzwkdw wkh nh| uhvxow krogvzkhwkhuwkhqhzwhfkqrorj|lv pruh fdslwdo0
lqwhqvlyh +dv lq suhylrxv prghov, ru ohvv fdslwdo0lqwhqvlyh wkdq h{lvwlqj whfkqrorjlhv1 Rxu prgho
surylghv d qdwxudo lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh uhvxow lq whupv ri wkh h{lelolw| d srooxwlqj (cid:31)up kdv/ xqghu
d pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw/ wr dgmxvw lwv dedwhphqw xqghu wkh qhz whfkqrorj|1
Wkh khduw ri wkh sdshu lv dq hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv ri wkh xvh ri xh0jdv ghvxoixul}dwlrq ghylfhv/
frpprqo| nqrzq dv (cid:19)vfuxeehuv/(cid:20) wr uhpryh vxoixu glr{lgh iurp wkh xh jdvhv ri frdo0(cid:31)uhg hohfwulf
srzhu sodqwv1 Wkh klvwru| ri vxoixu glr{lgh uhjxodwlrq r(cid:30)huv d ulfk frqwh{w iru hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv ri
wkhh(cid:30)hfwvrisrolf|lqvwuxphqwvrqwhfkqltxhfkrlfh1 Vlqfh4<:3/ihghudouhjxodwlrqrivxoixuglr{lgh
+VR , kdv jrqh wkurxjk wkuhh vwdjhv= dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug/ d whfkqrorj| vwdqgdug/ dqg d
2
v|vwhp ri wudghdeoh srooxwlrq doorzdqfhv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh (cid:31)uvw dqg odvw ri wkhvh srolf| uhjlphv
r(cid:30)hu d whvwlqj jurxqg iru dqdo|}lqj wkh lpsdfwv ri srolf| lqvwuxphqwv rq whfkqrorj| dgrswlrq1
Zh vkrz wkdw wkh whfkqltxh fkrlfhv ri xqlwv uhjxodwhg e| wkh wudghdeoh shuplwv v|vwhp zhuh
lqghhg pruh vhqvlwlyh wrdedwhphqw frvwvwkdqwkh fkrlfhv pdgh e| xqlwvuhjxodwhge| dqhplvvlrqv
udwh vwdqgdug1 Wkdw lv/ d jlyhq fkdqjh lq wkh dyhudjh vfuxeelqj frvw ru wkh dyhudjh frdo0vzlwfklqj
frvw kdg d eljjhu lpsdfw rq wkh suredelolw| ri vfuxeelqj iru xqlwv xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg uhjlph1
Zh dovr h{soruh wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri rwkhu srvvleoh lq xhqfhv rq wkh ghflvlrq ri zkhwkhu ru qrw wr vfuxe1
Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh (cid:31)qg wkdw wkh suhvhqfh ri orqj0whup frdo frqwudfwv udlvhg wkh olnholkrrg ri vfuxe0
elqj/ suhvxpdeo| gxh wr lqfuhdvhg frvwv dvvrfldwhg zlwk vzlwfklqj frdov1 Zh dovr (cid:31)qg vljql(cid:31)fdqw
gl(cid:30)huhqfhv dprqj uhjlrqv dqg dprqj rzqhuvkls fodvvhv1
Wkh devhqfh ri pdmru pdunhw0edvhg srolf| lqvwuxphqwv lq wkh uhdo zruog kdv olplwhg suhylrxv
rssruwxqlwlhv iru hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv15 Lq d vwxg| ri krph lqvxodwlrq/ Vwdylqv dqg Md(cid:30)h +4<<8,
5 Irudfrpsuhkhqvlyhuhylhzriwkholwhudwxuhrqwhfkqrorjlfdofkdqjhdqghqylurqphqwdosrolf|/vhhMd(cid:30)h/Qhzhoo/
5
hvwlpdwhg wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri hqhuj| wd{hv dqg dgrswlrq vxevlglhv lqgluhfwo|/ xvlqj wuhqgv lq hqhuj|
sulfhv dqg lqvxodwlrq frvw1 Wkh| frqfoxghg wkdw hqhuj| wd{hv zrxog kdyh (cid:19)qrwlfhdeoh lpsdfwv(cid:20) rq
wkh lqvxodwlqj h!flhqf| fkrvhq e| krph exloghuv> wkdw dgrswlrq vxevlglhv ri wkh vdph pdjqlwxgh
zrxog kdyh hyhq juhdwhu h(cid:30)hfwv> dqg wkdw exloglqj frghv glg qrw pdnh d vljql(cid:31)fdqw gl(cid:30)huhqfh1
Ehoodv +4<<;, dqdo|}hg wkh frvwv ri vfuxeelqj dw frdo0(cid:31)uhg srzhu sodqwv ryhu wlph/ orrnlqj iru
hylghqfh ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh16 H{dplqlqj vfuxeehuv exlow xqghu wkh qhz0vrxufh shuirupdqfh
vwdqgdugv ri wkh 4<:3 dqg 4<:: Fohdq Dlu Dfwv/ Ehoodv idlohg wr (cid:31)qg dq| h(cid:30)hfwv ri vfuxeehu ylqwdjh
rq frvw1
Prvw ri wkh zrun rq wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri hqylurqphqwdo srolf| lqvwuxphqw fkrlfh rq whfkqrorj| dgrs0
wlrq kdv ehhq wkhruhwlfdo udwkhu wkdq hpslulfdo1 Wkh suhgrplqdqw iudphzrun lq wkh olwhudwxuh kdv
lqyroyhg zkdw frxog eh fdoohg wkh (cid:19)glvfuhwh whfkqrorj| fkrlfh(cid:20) prgho1 D sulph h{dpsoh ri wklv
dssurdfk lv wkh sdshu e| Ploolpdq dqg Sulqfh +PS, +4<;<,1 Wkh| frqvlghu wkh fdvh ri d (cid:31)up/ zlwk
vrph h{lvwlqj dedwhphqw whfkqrorj|/ wkdw frqwhpsodwhv dgrswlqj d fhuwdlq qhz whfkqrorj| zlwk
orzhu pdujlqdo dedwhphqw frvwv1 PS wdnh wkh pdujlqdo dedwhphqw frvw ixqfwlrqv dv jlyhq/ dqg gr
qrw frqvlghu wkh rxwsxw ghflvlrqv ri wkh (cid:31)upv17
PS irfxv rq wkh uhodwlyh frvw vdylqjv wr dq lqglylgxdo (cid:31)up iurp dgrswlqj wkh orzhu0frvw whfk0
qrorj| xqghu gl(cid:30)huhqw srolf| lqvwuxphqwv1 D nh| uhvxow lv wkdw wkh frvw vdylqjv iurp wkh orzhu0frvw
whfkqrorj| duh juhdwhu xqghu d pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw +vxfk dv d wd{ ru v|vwhp ri wudghdeoh shu0
plwv, wkdq xqghu dq hplvvlrqv vwdqgdug wkdw lv htxlydohqw h{ dqwh1 PS dwwulexwh wklv uhvxow wr wkh
idfw wkdw xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw/ wkh (cid:31)up lqfuhdvhv lwv dedwhphqw zkhq lwv pdujlqdo
frvwv jrgrzq/ zkloh dedwhphqw lv (cid:31){hg xqghu wkh vwdqgdug1 Khqfh xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwux0
phqw wkh frvw vdylqjv lqfoxgh vdylqjv qrw rqo| rq wkh dedwhphqw wkdw zdv ehlqj shuiruphg xqghu
wkh rog whfkqrorj|/ exw dovr vdylqjv rq wkh lqfuhdvh lq dedwhphqw +vlqfh e| lqfuhdvlqj dedwhphqw
lw sd|v ohvv lq wd{hv/ ru krogv ihzhu shuplwv,1 Lw iroorzv wkdw li wkhuh lv d (cid:31){hg frvw wr dgrsw wkh
qhz whfkqrorj|/ dgrswlrq vkrxog eh pruh olnho| xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw1
Dv d wkhruhwlfdo iudphzrun/ wklv edvlf dssurdfk kdv vhyhudo olplwdwlrqv1 Iluvw/ lw uhvwulfwv
dwwhqwlrqwrwkh fdvh lqzklfkdqhzwhfkqrorj| kdvorzhupdujlqdo frvwv/ exw frphvdw vrph lqlwldo
(cid:31){hg frvw1 Wklv dssurdfk lv dssursuldwh iru wkh fdvh ri d uhjxodwru uhtxlulqj (cid:31)upv zlwk h{lvwlqj
dedwhphqw htxlsphqw wr xsjudgh wkhlu frqwurov18 Krzhyhu/ lq pdq| uhdo0zruog fdvhv (cid:24) vxfk
dv wkh vxoixu glr{lgh uhjxodwru| uhjlphv glvfxvvhg ehorz (cid:24) uhjxodwlrqv duh lpsrvhg rq suhylrxvo|
xquhjxodwhg (cid:31)upv1
Rwkhu olplwdwlrqv duh pruh ixqgdphqwdo1 Wkh PS dssurdfk vwduwv e| vshfli|lqj pdujlqdo
dedwhphqw frvw ixqfwlrqv/ dv li lq d ydfxxp> wkh frqqhfwlrqv wr wkh (cid:31)up*v rxwsxw dfwlylw| duh
ljqruhg1 Wkh uhvxowv ghshqg rq dvvxplqj (cid:31){hg rxwsxw dqg qr hqwu| ru h{lw1 Khwhurjhqhlw| dprqj
(cid:31)upv lv ljqruhg ru hovh qrw vdwlvidfwrulo| wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw19 Pruhryhu/ wkh vxsso| vlgh lv ohiw
dqg Vwdylqv +iruwkfrplqj,1
6 Lq whupv ri Vfkxpshwhu*v iudphzrun/ Ehoodv vrxjkw wr orrn dw (cid:19)lqqrydwlrq1(cid:20) Zh duh irfxvlqj rq vwxglhv ri
dgrswlrq dqggl(cid:30)xvlrq>zhphqwlrq Ehoodv ehfdxvhriwkhuhohydqfhwrwkhfrqwh{w riwkhsuhvhqw vwxg|1 Iru dfduhixo
hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv ri (cid:19)lqgxfhg lqqrydwlrq/(cid:20) dqg d vlpxodwlrq ri wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri srolf| lqvwuxphqwv rq wkh gluhfwlrq ri
lqqrydwlrq lq krph dssoldqfhv/ vhh Qhzhoo hw do1 +4<<<,1
7 D vlploduprgholqj iudphzrun lv xvhg e| Grzqlqj dqg Zklwh+4<;9,>Pdoxhj +4<;<,>Mxqj/ Nuxwlood/ dqg Er|g
+4<<9,>dqgIlvfkhu/Sduu|/dqgSl}hu+4<<;,1 Wkhvhprghovirfxvrqrwkhudvshfwvriwkhh(cid:30)hfwvrisrolf|lqvwuxphqwv
dqgwhfkqrorjlfdofkdqjh/exwwkh|vkduhwkhvdphxqghuo|lqjprgholqjiudphzrunghvfulehgdvwkh(cid:19)PSdssurdfk1(cid:20)
8 Qrwh wkdw wklv vfhqdulr dovr dvvxphv lpsolflwo| wkdw wkh h{lvwlqj whfkqltxh hlwkhu uhpdlqv lq sodfh +wr eh
xsjudghg, ru/ li uhsodfhg/ kdv }hur uhvdoh ydoxh1
9 Dowkrxjk Mxqj/ Nuxwlood/ dqg Er|g +4<<9, dwwhpsw wr wdnh khwhurjhqhlw| lqwr dffrxqw/ wkhlu phdvxuh ri d
(cid:19)pdunhw0ohyholqfhqwlyh(cid:20)lvriolplwhgxvhixoqhvv=lqfhqwlyhvrshudwhdwwkhohyhoriwkh(cid:31)up/qrwwkhlqgxvwu|1 Pruhryhu/
wkh| ljqruh wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri vwudwhjlf lqwhudfwlrq dprqj (cid:31)upv1 Vhh wkh fulwltxh lq Nhrkdqh +4<<<,1
6
xqh{soruhg> dw prvw/ wkh ur|dowlhv froohfwhg e| lqqrydwruv duh sdudphwhul}hg/ exw wkh vwuxfwxuh ri
wkh vxsso|lqj lqgxvwu| lv qrw prghohg1
Dw wkh vdph wlph/ wklv wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh kdv qrw ghulyhg frqfuhwh/ whvwdeoh k|srwkhvhv1
Hyhq vwduwlqj iurp wkh h{lvwlqj iudphzrun/ wkhuhiruh/ vrph zrun zrxog eh uhtxluhg wr surgxfh
k|srwkhvhv dssursuldwh iru hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ dqg ehfdxvh ri wkh wkhruhwlfdo
olplwdwlrqv mxvw glvfxvvhg/ frqvwuxfwlqj d qhz iudphzrun iurp wkh jurxqg xs lv d zruwkzkloh
hqghdyru1 Wkh wkhruhwlfdo prgho suhvhqwhglqwklv sdshu lv dvwduw1 Lw grhv qrw dgguhvv pdq| ri wkh
sureohpv deryh/ exw lw grhv od| wkh irxqgdwlrq iru d pruh jhqhudo prgho1 Lw dovr |lhogv dq h{solflw
dqg whvwdeoh k|srwkhvlv1
Zh ghyhors d vlpsoh prgho ri whfkqltxh fkrlfh lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq1 Vhfwlrq 6 frqvlghuv wkh
prgho lq wkh frqwh{w ri dsduwlfxodu duhdri hqylurqphqwdo uhjxodwlrq (cid:24) wkh frqwuro ri vxoixuglr{lgh
iurpfrdo0(cid:31)uhghohfwulfsrzhusodqwv(cid:24)dqgsuhvhqwvwkhhfrqrphwulfprghowrehhvwlpdwhg1 Vhfwlrq
7 glvfxvvhv wkh gdwd xvhg lq wkh dqdo|vlv/ sd|lqj vshfldo dwwhqwlrq wr wkh frqvwuxfwlrq ri hvwlpdwhv
iru wkh frvw ri exuqlqj orz0vxoixu frdo1 Hfrqrphwulf uhvxowv duh suhvhqwhg dqg glvfxvvhg lq vhfwlrq
81 Vhfwlrq 9 frqfoxghv1
5 D wkhruhwlfdo prgho ri whfkqltxh fkrlfh
Lqwklvvhfwlrqzhsuhvhqwdprghoridedwhphqwwhfkqltxhfkrlfh/irfxvlqjrqwkhiroorzlqjtxhvwlrq=
Krz grhv wkh fkrlfh ri srolf| lqvwuxphqw d(cid:30)hfw wkh frvw vdylqjv wr (cid:31)upv iurp fkdqjhv lq srooxwlrq
dedwhphqw whfkqltxhvB Zh kdyh lq plqg d vhwwlqj zkhuh d srooxwlqj (cid:31)up idfhv d fkrlfh ehwzhhq
lqvwdoolqj dq rog dqg d qhz yhuvlrq ri d vlplodu whfkqrorj|1 Wr wdnh dq h{dpsoh iurp rxu odwhu
hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv/ zh fdq lpdjlqh d (cid:31)up fkrrvlqj ehwzhhq rqh vfuxeehu dqg dqrwkhu zlwk voljkwo|
gl(cid:30)huhqw frvwv1
Ehfdxvhrxusulpdu|jrdolvwrjhqhudwhhpslulfdoo|whvwdeohk|srwkhvhv/wkhprgholvqhfhvvdulo|
vlpsoh1 Lw irfxvhv rqo| rq wkh dgrswlrq ri whfkqlfdo lqqrydwlrqv lq srooxwlrq frqwuro> lw pdnhv
d qxpehu ri vlpsoli|lqj dvvxpswlrqv derxw wkh rxwsxw pdunhw> lw ljqruhv lpsruwdqw dvshfwv ri
dgrswlrq ghflvlrqv dw wkh lqgxvwu| ohyho/ vxfk dv wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri vwudwhjlf lqwhudfwlrqv dprqj (cid:31)upv1:
Pruhryhu/ lw |lhogv qr gluhfw frqfoxvlrqv derxw wkh zhoiduh h(cid:30)hfwv ri gl(cid:30)huhqw srolf| lqvwuxphqwv1
Qrqhwkhohvv/ wkh prgho surylghv d xvhixo iudphzrun iru wklqnlqj derxw wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri srolf|
lqvwuxphqwv rq whfkqltxh fkrlfh1 Wkh frqfoxvlrqv ri wkh prgho duh pruh jhqhudo wkdq wkrvh ri wkh
PSdssurdfk/ dqgdoorzirudeurdghulqwhusuhwdwlrq1 Wkh prgho dovrr(cid:30)huvdirxqgdwlrqiruixwxuh
wkhruhwlfdo prghov ri juhdwhu frpsoh{lw| dqg lqghshqghqw vljql(cid:31)fdqfh1
Frqvlghu d frvw0plqlpl}lqj (cid:31)up surgxflqj rxwsxw t dqg hplwwlqj H xqlwv ri srooxwlrq1 Ohw
p (cid:20) H@t ghqrwh wkh (cid:31)up*v hplvvlrqv udwh lq xqlwv ri srooxwlrq shu xqlw ri rxwsxw/ dqg ohw p(cid:25)
uhsuhvhqw wkh (cid:31)up*v hplvvlrqv udwh lq wkh devhqfh ri dq| frqwurov1 Wr uhgxfh hplvvlrqv/ wkh (cid:31)up
fdq uhgxfh lwv rxwsxw ru uhgxfh lwv hplvvlrqv udwh1 Wkhvh duh frpsohphqwdu| vwudwhjlhv> lq jhqhudo
zh zrxog h{shfw wkh (cid:31)up gr erwk1 Khuh/ krzhyhu/ zh vkdoo irfxv rq wkh (cid:31)up*v fkrlfh ri hplvvlrqv
udwh1 Wr vlpsoli| wkh dqdo|vlv/ wkhuhiruh/ zh dvvxph wkdw rxwsxw lv (cid:31){hg1;
: Wkhvh vwudwhjlf h(cid:30)hfwv duh frqvlghuhg lq Nhrkdqh +4<<<,/ lq wkh frqwh{w ri d gl(cid:30)huhqw prgho iudphzrun1
; Dqdowhuqdwlyhdvvxpswlrqwkdwzrxogvxssruwrxuuhvxowvlvwkdwuhgxfwlrqvlqwkhhplvvlrqvudwhduh(cid:19)vhsdudeoh(cid:20)
iurpuhgxfwlrqvlqrxwsxw/lqwkhvhqvhwkdwwkhfrvwshuxqlwrxwsxwridfklhylqjdjlyhqhplvvlrqvudwhlvlqghshqghqw
ri rxwsxw1 Wkdw dvvxpswlrq zrxog krog li/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkhfrvw ri uhgxflqj wkhhplvvlrqvudwhzdv vroho| d ixqfwlrq
ri wkh shufhqwdjh ri hplvvlrqv uhpryhg1 Krzhyhu/ wkh vwurqjhu Dvvxpswlrq 4 vlpsol(cid:31)hv wkh prgho e| doorzlqj xv wr
h{suhvvfdslwdofrvwvdvfrqvwdqwv1 Dvdouhdg|qrwhg/wkhdvvxpswlrqri(cid:31){hgrxwsxwkdvehhqpdgh+hlwkhulpsolflwo|
ru h{solflwo|, lq wkh suhylrxv olwhudwxuh1
7
Dvvxpswlrq 4 Ilupv surgxfh d frqvwdqw ohyho ri rxwsxw t(cid:25)> khqfh wr uhgxfh hplvvlrqv wkh| pxvw
uhgxfh wkhlu hplvvlrqv udwh p1
Zh dvvxph wkdw uhgxflqj wkh hplvvlrqv udwh ehorz p(cid:25) lv frvwo|> uhvrxufhv vshqw rq hplvvlrqv
frqwuroduhxqdydlodeoh irurwkhulqsxwvwrsurgxfwlrq1 Ylhzlqj dedwhphqwh(cid:30)ruwvdqghplvvlrqvdv
wzr lqsxwv lqwr surgxfwlrq/ zh fdq uhsuhvhqw d jlyhq dedwhphqw whfkqltxh e| d (cid:19)txdvl0lvrtxdqw(cid:20)
jlylqj wkh wudgh0r(cid:30) ehwzhhq wkh hplvvlrqv udwh p dqg uhvrxufhv vshqw rq dedwhphqw f1< +Vhh
Iljxuh 41, Dvvxplqj wkdw wkhuh duh ghfolqlqj pdujlqdo uhwxuqv wr dedwhphqw h(cid:30)ruwv/ wklv txdvl0
lvrtxdqw fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e| d frqyh{ dqg ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq f+p,1 Rq rxu dvvxpswlrq wkdw
rxwsxw lv (cid:31){hg/ wkh ixqfwlrq f+p, fdq dovr eh lqwhusuhwhg dv dq hplvvlrqv udwh frvw ixqfwlrq lq
shu0xqlw0rxwsxw whupv1
Ohwwlqj n ghqrwh wkh fdslwdo frvw shu xqlw rxwsxw/43 zh kdyh f+p(cid:25), @ n dqg zh fdq zulwh wkh
dedwhphqw frvw ixqfwlrq dv f+p, @ n .!+p,/ zkhuh !+p, uhsuhvhqwv wkh frqyh{ dqg ghfuhdvlqj
yduldeoh dedwhphqw frvw ixqfwlrq1
Dvvxpswlrq 5 Wkh frvw ri hplwwlqj dw udwh p/ jlyhq lqlwldo +xqfrqwuroohg, udwh p(cid:25)/ lv jlyhq e|
f+p>p(cid:25),t(cid:25)> zkhuh f+p>p(cid:25),@n.!+p>p(cid:25),/ zlwk !(cid:30) ?3 dqg !(cid:30)(cid:30) A3=
Wr vlpsoli| wkh frpsdulvrq ri fdslwdo dqg yduldeoh frvwv/ frqvlghu d vlpsoh wzr0shulrg prgho1
Lq wkh (cid:31)uvw shulrg/ wkh (cid:31)up ghflghv zklfk dedwhphqw whfkqltxh wr dgrsw/ dqg sd|v dq| uhtxluhg
fdslwdo frvw144 Lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg/ wkh (cid:31)up hplwv dw vrph fkrvhq udwh p/ dqgsd|v wkh yduldeoh
frvwv ri dedwlqj iurp p(cid:25) wr p1 Zlwkrxw orvv ri jhqhudolw|/ ohw wkh glvfrxqw udwh eh }hur/ vr wkdw
frvwv lq erwk shulrgv duh zhljkwhg htxdoo|145
Zh vxssrvh wkdw wkh (cid:31)up idfhv d fkrlfh ehwzhhq wzr dedwhphqw whfkqltxhv/ ghqrwhg 4 dqg 5/
zlwk fdslwdo frvwv n dqg n dqg yduldeoh frvw ixqfwlrqv ! +p, dqg ! +p,1 Dv douhdg| qrwhg/
(cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2
zh fdq wklqn ri wkhvh whfkqltxhv dv (cid:19)rog(cid:20) dqg (cid:19)qhz(cid:20) yhuvlrqv ri vrph vlplodu phdqv ri uhgxflqj
srooxwlrq1 Li n ? n dqg !(cid:30)+p, ? !(cid:30)+p,>;p> wkhq whfkqltxh 4 lv xqdpeljxrxvo| vxshulru wr
(cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2
whfkqltxh 51 +Qrwh wkdw vlqfh ! +p(cid:25), @ ! +p(cid:25), @ 3>!(cid:30)+p, ? !(cid:30)+p,>;p @, ! +p, ? ! +p,>;p=,
(cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2
Lq Iljxuh 4/ whfkqltxh 4 lv xqdpeljxrxvo| vxshulru wr wkh whfkqltxh uhsuhvhqwhg e| wkh grwwhg
olqh1 D pruh lqwhuhvwlqj fdvh lv wkh rqh lq zklfk whfkqltxh 4/ vd|/ kdv d kljkhu fdslwdo frvw exw
orzhu pdujlqdo frvwv iru dq| hplvvlrqv udwh/ vr wkdw n A n exw !(cid:30)+p, ? !(cid:30)+p,>;p1 Wklv fdvh lv
(cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2
looxvwudwhg e| fxuyhv 4 dqg 5 lq Iljxuh 41
Zh frpsduh wzr uhjxodwru| uhjlphv= dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug +(cid:19)frppdqg dqg frqwuro(cid:20), dqg
d (cid:19)pdunhw0edvhg(cid:20) srolf| zklfk dwwdfkhv d sulfh wr hplvvlrqv1 Zh frxfk wkh dqdo|vlv lq whupv ri d
sulfh rq hplvvlrqv htxdo wr s1 Wklv sulfh frxog eh wkh htxloleulxp sulfh ri d wudghdeoh hplvvlrqv
< Ehfdxvh zh duh h{suhvvlqj hplvvlrqv dqg dedwhphqw frvw lq shu0xqlw0rxwsxw whupv/ wkh ixqfwlrq SE6(cid:28) lv qrw d
wuxhlvrtxdqw1 Rqwkhrwkhukdqg/zhfrxog gudzdwuxhlvrtxdqwuhodwlqjwrwdohplvvlrqv.dqgwkhfrvwridedwhphqw
h(cid:30)ruwv1
43 Lq wklv vlpsoh prgho/ wkh fdslwdo frvw lv wdnhq dv jlyhq1 Lq d pruh jhqhudo prgho/ wkh vxsso| vlgh ri wkh
pdunhwlqsrooxwlrqfrqwurowhfkqrorjlhvzrxogehprghohg>wkhfdslwdofrvwzrxogwkhqfruuhvsrqgwrwkhsulfhriwkh
whfkqrorj|/soxvdq|(cid:31){hglqvwdoodwlrqfrvw1 Lqvxfkdfdvh/wkhfdslwdofrvw&zrxogfohduo|ghshqgrqwkhfrpshwlwlyh
vwuxfwxuhri wkh vxsso|lqjlqgxvwu|/dprqjrwkhuwklqjv1 Dvzlwk pdq|rwkhulpsruwdqwh{whqvlrqv ri wkhprgho/ zh
ghihu wklv wr ixwxuh zrun1
44 Dq lpsruwdqw olplwdwlrq ri wklv prgho lv wkdw lw grhv qrw doorz iru wkh ghflvlrq ri zkhq wr dgrsw d qhz
whfkqltxh1 Udwkhu/ wkh vlpsoh prgho zh frqvlghu khuh (cid:24) olnh wkh suhylrxv olwhudwxuh (cid:24) frqwhpsodwhv d (cid:31)up fkrrvlqj
dprqjwhfkqltxhvdwdjlyhqsrlqwlqwlph1 Irudwkhruhwlfdoprghoriwkhghflvlrqzkhqwrdgrswdjlyhqwhfkqrorj|/
vhh Md(cid:30)h dqg Vwdylqv +4<<8,1
45 D fkdqjh lq wkh glvfrxqw udwh frxog htxdoo| zhoo eh uhsuhvhqwhg dv d fkdqjh lq wkh fdslwdo frvw uhodwlyh wr wkh
yduldeoh frvw ixqfwlrq1
8
shuplw/ ru lw frxog vlpso| eh d wd{ shu xqlw ri hplvvlrqv1 Zh dvvxph wkdw lqglylgxdo (cid:31)upv duh
(cid:19)vpdoo/(cid:20) vr wkdw wkh| wdnh wkh shuplw sulfh dv lqghshqghqw ri wkhlu fkrlfh ri whfkqltxh146
Xqghu dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug v/ wkh (cid:31)up lv uhtxluhg wr hplw dw udwh v/ exw sd|v qrwklqj wkh
srooxwlrq lw hplwv> zh dvvxph shuihfw hqirufhphqw1 Xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw/ wkh (cid:31)up
fkrrvhv lwv hplvvlrqv udwh exw sd|v d sulfh s rq doo xqlwv ri hplvvlrqv147 Wkh (cid:31)up fkrrvhv p wr
plqlpl}h lwv wrwdo frvwv/ zklfk duh f +p,t(cid:25).spt(cid:25)iru whfkqltxh m1 Khqfh wkh (cid:31)up fkrrvhv pW vxfk
(cid:26) (cid:26)
wkdw f(cid:30)+pW, @ s1 Ylhzlqj wkh dedwhphqw frvw ixqfwlrq dv dqdorjrxv wr dq lvrtxdqw/ s uhsuhvhqwv
(cid:26) (cid:26)
wkh sulfh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh hplvvlrqv udwh dqg dedwhphqw h(cid:30)ruwv +zkhuh wkh (cid:19)sulfh(cid:20) ri dedwhphqw
h(cid:30)ruw lv qrupdol}hg wr xqlw|,1
Vlqfh (cid:31)upv duh dvvxphg wr eh frvw0plqlpl}lqj/ hdfk (cid:31)up zloo fkrrvh wkh whfkqltxh wkdw plql0
pl}hv lwv wrwdo frvwv +dedwhphqw frvwv soxv wd{hv ru shuplw frvwv/ li dssolfdeoh,1 Ohw wkh uhodwlyh
frvw vdylqjv xqghu whfkqltxh l +uhodwlyh wr whfkqltxh m,/ phdvxuhg shu xqlw rxwsxw/ eh ghqrwhg
(cid:4) = Xqghu d vwdqgdug/ (cid:4)7 (cid:20)f +v,(cid:3)f +v,> xqghu d wd{/ (cid:4)A @f +pW,.spW(cid:3)f +pW,(cid:3)spW1
(cid:26)3(cid:16) (cid:26)3(cid:16) (cid:26) (cid:16) (cid:26)3(cid:16) (cid:26) (cid:26) (cid:26) (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:16)
Wr frpsduh wkh wzr srolf| uhjlphv/ zh qhhg wr pdnh vrph dvvxpswlrq derxw krz wkh| duh
ghwhuplqhg1 D frqyhqlhqw dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw wkh srolf| uhjlphv lqgxfh wkh vdph hplvvlrqv udwh h{
dqwh148 Zh fdq lpdjlqh wkdw ehiruh wkh vwduw ri wkh (cid:31)uvw shulrg/ dw wlph 3/ rqo| rqh ri wkh wzr
whfkqrorjlhv lv dydlodeoh/ dqg wkh uhjxodwru fkrrvhv wkh vwulqjhqf| ri wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw
ru vwdqgdug dffruglqj wr wkdw lqlwldo whfkqltxh1
Dvvxpswlrq 6 Zkhwkhu wkh uhjxodwru fkrrvhv dq hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug v ru d pdunhw0edvhg
vwdqgdug zlwk hplvvlrqv sulfh s +lqgxflqj pW vxfk wkdw !(cid:30)+pW,@s,/ wkh uhjxodwru| uhjlphv
(cid:26) (cid:26) (cid:26)
duh htxlydohqw wr rqh dqrwkhu xqghu wkh whfkqltxh m= v @pW/ zkhuh m lv wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh1
(cid:26)
Jlyhq wklv h{ dqwh htxlydohqfh/ d (cid:31)up zloo (cid:31)qg wkh qhzo| lqwurgxfhg whfkqltxh uhodwlyho| pruh
dwwudfwlyh xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw wkdq xqghu wkh vwdqgdug1 Wklv uhvxow krogv wuxh
zkhwkhu wkh qhzo| lqwurgxfhg whfkqltxh lv pruh ru ohvv fdslwdo0lqwhqvlyh wkdq wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh1
Sursrvlwlrq 4 Ohw Dvvxpswlrqv 406 krog1 Frqvlghu d (cid:31)up wkdw idfhv d fkrlfh ehwzhhq dedwhphqw
whfkqrorjlhv 4 dqg 5/ zkhuh n A n exw !(cid:30)+p, ? !(cid:30)+p,>;p1 Li wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh lv whfkqltxh
(cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2
4/ wkhq wkh frvw vdylqjv wr d (cid:31)up iurp whfkqltxh 5 uhodwlyh wr whfkqltxh 4 zloo eh juhdwhu xqghu wkh
pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw1 Olnhzlvh/ li wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh lv whfkqltxh 5/ wkh uhodwlyh frvw vdylqjv
iurp whfkqltxh 4 zloo eh juhdwhu xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw1
46 Qrwh wkdw zh duh irfxvlqj rq wkh frpsdulvrq ehwzhhq d pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw dqg dq hplvvlrqv vwdqgdug1
Wkh nh| wr rxu dqdo|vlv lv wkh suhvhqfh ri d sulfh rq hplvvlrqv/ udwkhu wkdq wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkdw sulfh1
Dvvkrzqhovhzkhuh+Nhrkdqh/4<<<,/lqhtxloleulxpwkhiudfwlrqri(cid:31)upvlqdqlqgxvwu|dgrswlqjdorzhu0pdujlqdo0
frvw whfkqltxh zloo eh juhdwhu xqghu d wd{ wkdq xqghu d wudghdeoh doorzdqfhv v|vwhp wkdw lv htxlydohqw xqghu wkh h{
dqwh whfkqrorj|1 Wklvlvehfdxvhwkhgl(cid:30)xvlrqriwkhorzhu0frvwwhfkqrorj|wkurxjkrxw wkhuhjxodwhglqgxvwu| uhvxowv
lqorzhupdujlqdofrvwviruwkhlqgxvwu|dvdzkroh/dqgwkxvdidoolqwkhshuplwsulfh1 Ehfdxvhwkhdgrswlrqlqfhqwlyh
lvlqfuhdvlqjlqwkhsulfhrqhplvvlrqv/wklvh(cid:30)hfwuhgxfhvwkhhtxloleulxplqfhqwlyhwrdgrswwkhqhzwhfkqrorj|xqghu
wkhwudghdeohshuplwv|vwhp/uhodwlyhwrwkhwd{1 Wkhrssrvlwhuhvxowzrxogkrogwuxhirudqhzwhfkqltxhzlwkkljkhu
pdujlqdo frvwv dqg orzhu fdslwdo frvwv1
47 Li shuplwv duh dxfwlrqhg/ wkh (cid:31)up zloo sd| R rq doo lwv shuplwv1 Li hdfk (cid:31)up uhfhlyhv vrph iuhh doorfdwlrq ri
shuplwv iurp wkh jryhuqphqw/ R zloo vwloo uhsuhvhqw wkh frvw ri kroglqj d shuplw rq wkh pdujlq/ dqg wkxv wkh h(cid:30)hfw
rq wkh (cid:31)up*v dedwhphqw ghflvlrq dqg frvw vdylqjv zloo eh wkh vdph1
48 Qrwh wkdw wklv dvvxpswlrq vwulfwo| pdnhv vhqvh rqo| li hplvvlrqv vwdqgdugv duh wdujhwhg wr hdfk (cid:31)up/ ru dowhu0
qdwlyho| li (cid:31)upv duhkrprjhqhrxv1 Krzhyhu/ lw surylghv d qdwxudo (cid:19)qrupdol}dwlrq(cid:20) xqghu zklfk wr frpsduhwkh wzr
srolf| lqvwuxphqwv1
Wkh jhqhudo dyru ri wkh uhvxow zloo fduu| ryhu wr khwhurjhqhrxv (cid:31)upv zlwk d xqlirup vwdqgdug1 Iru d glvfxvvlrq
ri qrwlrqv ri (cid:19)htxlydohqfh(cid:20) lq wkdw fdvh/ vhh Nhrkdqh +4<<<,1
9
Surri= Frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh whfkqltxh 4 lv wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh1 Li wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh lv
whfkqltxh 4/ wkhq xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw wkh uhodwlyh frvw vdylqjv iurp xvlqj
whfkqltxh 5 lv (cid:4)A (cid:20) f +pW,.spW (cid:3)f +pW,(cid:3)spW @ f +v,.spW (cid:3)f +pW,(cid:3)wpW e| D61
(cid:129)32 (cid:129) (cid:129) (cid:129) 2 2 2 (cid:129) (cid:129) 2 2 2
Vxevwlwxwlqj iru f +v, dqg f +pW,/ zh kdyh (cid:4)A @ n .! +v,(cid:3)n (cid:3)! +v,.+! +v,.sv(cid:3)
(cid:129) 2 2 (cid:129)32 (cid:129) (cid:129) 2 2 2
! +pW,(cid:3)wpW,= Vlqfh pW lv wkh frvw0plqlpl}lqj ohyho ri p/ ! +v,.sv(cid:3)! +pW,(cid:3)spW A31
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Khqfh (cid:4)A A n (cid:3)n .! +v,(cid:3)! +v, @ (cid:4)7 = E| d vlplodu dujxphqw/ wkh uhodwlyh frvw
(cid:129)32 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 (cid:129)32
vdylqjv iurp xvlqj whfkqltxh 4 zkhq wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh lv whfkqltxh 5 lv jlyhq e| (cid:4)A @
23(cid:129)
! +v,.n .sv(cid:3)! +pW,(cid:3)spW(cid:3)n An (cid:3)n .! +v,(cid:3)! +v, @(cid:4)7 = THG
2 2 (cid:129) (cid:129) (cid:129) (cid:129) 2 (cid:129) 2 2 23(cid:129)
Iljxuh 5d looxvwudwhv wkh sursrvlwlrq iru wkh fdvh lq zklfk wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh lv whfkqltxh 5/
vr wkdw wkh qhz whfkqltxh lv pruh fdslwdo lqwhqvlyh1 Wkh wzr wdqjhqw olqhv duh sdudooho/ zlwk vorsh
htxdo wr wkh hplvvlrqv sulfh s1 E| wkh dvvxpswlrq ri htxlydohqfh/ wkh vwdqgdug v lv wkh hplvvlrqv
udwh dw zklfk wkh hplvvlrqv sulfh olqh lv wdqjhqw wr fxuyh 51 Zlwk whfkqrorj| 4/ wkh (cid:31)up hplwv dw
udwh p xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw1
(cid:129)
Wkh frvw vdylqjv xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhglqvwuxphqw lv jlyhqe| wkh glvwdqfh e ehwzhhqwkh wzr
hplvvlrqv sulfh olqhv1 Wrwdo frvwv zrxog eh irxqg e| dgglqj wkh wrwdo wd{ eloo ru shuplwv frvwv wr
wkh dedwhphqw frvw/ ru htxlydohqwo| e| (cid:31)qglqj wkh yhuwlfdo lqwhufhsw ri wkh wd{ olqh1 +Qrwh wkdw wkh
hplvvlrqv sulfh olqh sod|v wkh uroh ri wkh lvrfrvw olqh lq wklv iudphzrun1, Phdqzkloh/ wkh vdylqjv
xqghu wkh vwdqgdug lv vlpso| wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh frvw ixqfwlrqv dw hplvvlrqv udwh v/ zklfk lv
wkh glvwdqfh d ? e1 Iljxuh 5e ghprqvwudwhv wkh uhvxow iru wkh fdvh lq zklfk wkh qhz whfkqltxh lv
wkh ohvv fdslwdo0lqwhqvlyh whfkqltxh 51 Djdlq/ wkh frvw vdylqjv xqghu wkh wd{ duh jlyhq e| e/ zklfk
lv vwulfwo| odujhu wkdq d/ wkh frvw vdylqjv xqghu wkh vwdqgdug1
Ehfdxvh wkhsuhylrxvolwhudwxuhkdvfrqvlghuhgrqo|wkh orzhu0pdujlqdo0frvwfdvh/ lqwhusuhwdwlrq
ri wkh uhvxowv kdv irfxvhg rq wkh juhdwhu dedwhphqw xqghu wkh orzhu0pdujlqdo0frvw whfkqltxh dv wkh
vrxufh ri wkh frvw vdylqjv1 Ri frxuvh/ wkdw lqwhusuhwdwlrq grhv qrw dsso| wr wkh fdvh lq zklfk d
ohvv fdslwdo0lqwhqvlyh whfkqltxh lv lqwurgxfhg1
D pruh jhqhudo lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh juhdwhu frvw vdylqjv xqghu wkh hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug
fhqwhuv rq wkh h{lelolw| doorzhg e| d pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw1 Xqghu d wd{ ru d shuplw v|vwhp/
d (cid:31)up fdq dgmxvw lwv hplvvlrqv wr plqlpl}h lwv vxp ri dedwhphqw frvw dqg wd{1 Rxu dvvxpswlrq
ri htxlydohqfh vlpso| krogv wkdw wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw pdnhv hplvvlrqv udwh v rswlpdo
xqghu wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh1 Li zh lqwurgxfh d whfkqlfdo lqqrydwlrq dqg krog wkh hplvvlrqv sulfh
frqvwdqw/ wkh lqqrydwlrq zloo dozd|v eh uhodwlyho| pruh dwwudfwlyh wr wkh (cid:31)up xqghu wkh pdunhw0
edvhg lqvwuxphqw wkdq xqghu wkh vwdqgdug/ vlpso| ehfdxvh xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhglqvwuxphqw wkh
(cid:31)up wkh fdq uh0rswlpl}h dorqj lwv qhz (cid:19)txdvl0lvrtxdqw1(cid:20)49
Sursrvlwlrq 4 ohdgv gluhfwo| wr d whvwdeoh k|srwkhvlv= (cid:31)upv uhjxodwhg e| d pdunhw0edvhg lqvwux0
phqw zloo eh pruh vhqvlwlyh wr dedwhphqw frvwv/ lq wkhlu fkrlfh ri dedwhphqw whfkqltxh/ wkdq (cid:31)upv
uhjxodwhg e| d frppdqg0dqg0frqwuro lqvwuxphqw1 E|(cid:19)pruhvhqvlwlyh/(cid:20)zhphdqwkdwdjlyhqfkdqjh
lq wkh xqghuo|lqj frvw ixqfwlrq (cid:24) l1h1/ d jlyhq whfkqrorjlfdo lqqrydwlrq (cid:24) zloo kdyh d juhdwhu lpsdfw
rq wkh (cid:31)up*v fkrlfh ri whfkqltxh1 Ehfdxvh wkh frvw vdylqjv iurp d whfkqlfdo lqqrydwlrq zloo eh
juhdwhu xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw/ d (cid:31)up xqghu wkdw uhjlph zloo eh pruh olnho| wr dgrsw
wkh qhz whfkqltxh/ doo hovh htxdo1 Khqfh lw zloo dovr eh pruh olnho| wr dgrsw wkdw whfkqltxh wkdq
49 Wkh uhvxow lv vrphzkdw dqdorjrxv wr idploldu uhvxowv iurp frqvxphu wkhru|/ vxfk dv wkh uhdvrq wkdw Voxwvn|
zhdowk frpshqvdwlrq ohdyhv frqvxphuv ehwwhu r(cid:30) diwhu d sulfh fkdqjh1 Voxwvn| frpshqvdwlrq doorzv wkh frqvxphu
wr sxufkdvh khu ruljlqdo exqgoh dw wkh qhz sulfhv1 Ehfdxvh wklv doorzv wkh frqvxphu wr uh0rswlpl}h wr d kljkhu
lqgl(cid:30)huhqfh fxuyh/ lw ohdyhv wkh frqvxphu ehwwhu r(cid:30) wkdq ehiruh wkh sulfh fkdqjh1 Lq wkh fdvh ri wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri
d qhz whfkqltxh/ wkh (cid:19)sulfh udwlr(cid:20) vwd|v frqvwdqw/ zkloh wkh lvrtxdqw vkliwv1 Qrqhwkhohvv/ wkh xqghuo|lqj sulqflsoh
lv hvvhqwldoo| wkh vdph1 Pdnlqj wkh wd{ dqg vwdqgdug htxlydohqw xqghu wkh lqlwldo whfkqltxh sod|v wkh vdph uroh dv
doorzlqj wkh frqvxphu wr ex| wkh vdph exqgoh xqghu wkh qhz sulfh udwlr1
:
vrph rwkhu dowhuqdwlyh phdqv ri uhgxflqj srooxwlrq1
Iljxuh 6 looxvwudwhv wklv uhvxow iru wkh sduwlfxoduo| vlpsoh fdvh lq zklfk wkh whfkqlfdo lqqrydwlrq
lv d uhgxfwlrq lq yduldeoh dedwhphqw frvw dw wkh vdph fdslwdo frvw14: Wkh vwdqgdug v dqg pdunhw0
edvhg lqvwuxphqw +zlwk hplvvlrqv sulfh s, duh htxlydohqw xqghu wkh lqlwldo whfkqrorj|1 Wkh dyhudjh
frvwv ri dedwhphqw duh wkh vorshv ri wkh wkuhh ud|v iurp +p(cid:25)>3, wr wkh uhohydqw srlqwv rq wkh
dedwhphqw frvw ixqfwlrqv1 Iru d jlyhq fkdqjh lq wkh dgrswlrq frvw ixqfwlrq/ wkh frvw vdylqjv xqghu
wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw +jlyhq e| e, zloo eh juhdwhu wkdq xqghu wkh vwdqgdug +jlyhq e| d,1
Li zh phdvxuh wkh fkdqjhv lq dyhudjh dedwhphqw frvw/ wkh h(cid:30)hfw zloo eh hyhq pruh surqrxqfhg1
Xqghuwkhvwdqgdug/wkh(cid:31)up*vdyhudjhdedwhphqwfrvwjrhviurpDF wrDF +v,> xqghuwkhpdunhw0
f (cid:129)
edvhg lqvwuxphqw/ lw jrhv iurp DF wr DF +s,1 Wkxv wkh fkdqjh lq dyhudjh dedwhphqw frvw lv
f (cid:129)
vpdoohu xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg lqvwuxphqw1 Krzhyhu/ wkh dgrswlrq ghflvlrq lv edvhg rq wkh frp0
sdulvrq ri wrwdo frvwv/ lqfoxglqj wkh frvwv ri hplvvlrqv +wkh wd{ eloo ru wkh kroglqj frvw ri shuplwv,1
DvvkrzqlqIljxuh6/ wkhvpdoohufkdqjhlqdyhudjhdedwhphqwfrvwxqghuwkhpdunhw0edvhguhjlph
fruuhvsrqgv wr d odujhu fkdqjh lq wrwdo frvw14;
6 Wkh fdvh ri vxoixu glr{lgh frqwuro
614 Wkh frqwh{w
Vxoixu glr{lgh frqwuro e| frdo0(cid:31)uhg hohfwulf srzhu sodqwv lq wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv surylghv d uhdg|
whvwlqj jurxqg iru wkh prgho ri dgrswlrq mxvw rxwolqhg1 Ri frxuvh/ zh gr qrw gluhfwo| revhuyh dq
lqglylgxdoxqlwuhvsrqglqjwrfkdqjhvlqdedwhphqwfrvwixqfwlrqv1 Krzhyhu/zhgr revhuyhdjurxs
ri xqlwv zlwk gl(cid:30)huhqw dedwhphqw frvwv fkrrvlqj gl(cid:30)huhqw whfkqltxhv1 E| hvwlpdwlqj wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri
dedwhphqw frvw rq wkh fkrlfh ri whfkqltxh dfurvv xqlwv/ kroglqj rwkhu xqlw fkdudfwhulvwlfv frqvwdqw/
zh fdq lqgluhfwo| hvwlpdwh wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri fkdqjhv lq whfkqrorj| rq whfkqltxh fkrlfh14<
Exuqlqj frdo wr surgxfh hohfwulflw| surgxfhv vxoixu glr{lgh +VR , dv d e|surgxfw/ ehfdxvh frdo
2
frqwdlqv vxoixu1 Lq grzqzlqg xuedq duhdv/ VR frqwulexwhv wr uhvsludwru| dlophqwv dqg pruelglw|1
2
Lqmhfwhg lqwr wkh dwprvskhuh e| wdoo vwdfnv/ VR uhwxuqv wr hduwk dv vxoixulf dflg lq suhflslwdwlrq/
2
dqg wkxv lv d sulpdu| frpsrqhqw ri dflg udlq1
Jryhuqphqw uhjxodwlrq ri vxoixu glr{lgh hplvvlrqv dw wkh ihghudo ohyho kdv xqghujrqh wkuhh
skdvhv1 Xqghu wkh Fohdq Dlu Dfw Dphqgphqwv ri 4<:3/ qhz jhqhudwlqj xqlwv zhuh vxemhfw wr d
pd{lpxp doorzdeoh udwh ri VR5 hplvvlrqv/ exw frxog fkrrvh krz wr phhw wkdw vwdqgdug153 Lq wkh
vhfrqg skdvh/ vwduwlqj zlwk xqlwv frqvwuxfwhg diwhu 4<:</ qhz vrxufhv zhuh uhtxluhg qrw rqo| wr
4: Zh xvh wklv fdvh ri dq (cid:19)xqdpeljxrxv lpsuryhphqw(cid:20) wr nhhs wkh glvfxvvlrq dqg wkh (cid:31)jxuhv vlpsoh1 Ehfdxvh wkh
uhvxow rzv iurp Sursrvlwlrq 4/ lw zrxog dovr dsso| iruwkh jhqhudofdvh ri d fkdqjhlq whfkqrorj|1 +Wkhh{fhswlrq lv
iruwkhrssrvlwh h{wuhph fdvhri d gurs lq fdslwdo frvw zlwkrxw dq lqfuhdvh lq yduldeoh frvw> lw lv hdv| wr vkrz wkdw lq
wklv vshfldo fdvh wkh frvw vdylqjv zloo eh lghqwlfdo xqghu wkh wzr uhjlphv/ ehfdxvh wkh dedwhphqw ohyho xqghu wkh wd{
lv xqfkdqjhg e| vxfk d (cid:19)oxps0vxp(cid:20) fkdqjh lq dedwhphqw frvw1,
4; Wklv lv d jhqhudo uhvxow1 Wkh idfw wkdw wkh h{ srvw dyhudjh frvw xqghu wkh pdunhw0edvhg uhjlph lv kljkhu lv ri
frxuvh gxh wr wkh idfw wkdw wkh dyhudjh frvwv duh lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh dprxqw ri dedwhphqw1 Exw lw lv hdv| wr vkrz wkdw
jlyhq d sulfh rq hplvvlrqv/ d frvw0plqlpl}lqj (cid:31)up zloo dozd|v dedwh +li lw dedwhv dw doo, lq wkh uhjlrq ri lqfuhdvlqj
dyhudjh dedwhphqw frvwv1 Wklv uhvxow lv h{dfwo| dqdorjrxv wr wkh vwdqgdug uhvxow wkdw d sur(cid:31)w0pd{lpl}lqj (cid:31)up zloo
rqo| surgxfh rxwsxw lq wkh uhjlrq ri lqfuhdvlqj dyhudjh frvwv1
4< Qrwh wkdw zh duh qrw sruwud|lqj vfuxeelqj ru frdo0vzlwfklqj dv d vxshulru whfkqltxh1 Udwkhu/ zh duh xvlqj
revhuyhg fkrlfhv ehwzhhq vfuxeelqj dqg vzlwfklqj dv d phdqv ri phdvxulqj krz vhqvlwlyh wkh whfkqltxh fkrlfh lv wr
gl(cid:30)huhqfhv lq dedwhphqw frvwv1
53 Lq sulqflsoh/ wklv hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug dssolhg wr doo xqlwv rq zklfk frqvwuxfwlrq ehjdq ehwzhhq 4<:5 dqg
4<:<1 Ehfdxvh ri frqvwuxfwlrq ghod|v dqg srolwlfdo ghdov/ wkh dfwxdo fryhudjh h{whqghg wr xqlwv exlow dv odwh dv 4<<41
;
phhw wkh sulru hplvvlrqv udwh/ exw dovr wr lqvwdoo xh0jdv ghvxoixul}dwlrq ghylfhv/ ru (cid:19)vfuxeehuv1(cid:20)
Wlwoh LY ri wkh 4<<3 Fohdq Dlu Dfw Dphqgphqwv uhsodfhg wklv dssurdfk zlwk d v|vwhp ri
wudghdeoh doorzdqfhv iru VR5 hplvvlrqv1 Skdvh L ri wkh surjudp vwduwhg lq 4<<81 Lw dssolhg wr
wkh odujhvw/ gluwlhvw h{lvwlqj jhqhudwlqj xqlwv/ zklfk kdg ehhq h{hpsw iurp wkh hduolhu qhz0vrxufh
shuirupdqfh vwdqgdugv1 Doorzdqfhvduh ghqrplqdwhglqwrqv/ dqgduhglvwulexwhgdqqxdoo|/ urxjko|
dffruglqj wrhdfkxqlw*v(cid:19)edvholqh(cid:20) hplvvlrqvehwzhhq4<;8dqg4<;:1 Dwwkh hqgri hdfk|hdu/ hdfk
xqlw pxvw vxeplw d qxpehu ri doorzdqfhv htxdo wr lwv hplvvlrqv lq wkdw |hdu1
Vxoixu glr{lgh uhjxodwlrq wkxv suhvhqwv xv zlwk wkuhh fohduo| gh(cid:31)qhg srolf| uhjlphv= d xqlirup
hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug/ d whfkqrorj| vwdqgdug/ dqg d v|vwhp ri wudghdeoh shuplwv1 Ehfdxvh zh
duh lqwhuhvwhg lq wkh ghwhuplqdqwv ri whfkqltxh fkrlfh/ wkh vhfrqg uhjlph lv ri olwwoh lqwhuhvw= xqlwv
zhuh uhtxluhg wr lqvwdoo vfuxeehuv1 Wkh (cid:31)uvw dqg wklug uhjlphv/ krzhyhu/ r(cid:30)hu d whvw ri wkh wkhru|
vnhwfkhg deryh1
Wkh pdqdjhu ri d frdo0(cid:31)uhg jhqhudwlqj xqlw kdv wzr sulpdu| phdqv ri uhgxflqj wkh hplvvlrqv
udwh ri vxoixu glr{lgh/ ru VR 1 Iluvw/ kh fdq vzlwfk wr d frdo zlwk d orzhu vxoixu frqwhqw154
2
Vzlwfklqjfrdovgrhvqrwuhtxluhdodujhfdslwdolqyhvwphqw/exworz0vxoixufrdoihwfkhvdsuhplxp155
Dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkhpdqdjhufdqlqvwdood xhjdvghvxoixul}dwlrqghylfh/ ru(cid:19)vfuxeehu(cid:20)(cid:24)dexloglqj0
vl}hg slhfh ri htxlsphqw wkdw uhpryhv vxoixu glr{lgh iurp wkh xh jdvhv/ xvxdoo| e| uhdfwlrq zlwk
d olphvwrqh voxuu|1 Lw lv dq h{shqvlyh fdslwdo lqyhvwphqw1 Exw ehfdxvh uhprydo h!flhqflhv duh yhu|
kljk +xs wr <8(,/ wkh xqlw fdq frqwlqxh wr exuq fkhds kljk0vxoixu frdo1
615 Wkh hfrqrphwulf prgho
Frqvlghu dq lqglylgxdo (cid:31)up vxemhfwhg wr rqh ri wkh wzrsrolf| uhjlphv glvfxvvhg deryh (cid:24) dxqlirup
hplvvlrqv udwh vwdqgdug iru qhz vrxufhv +QVSV0G, ru d v|vwhp ri wudghdeoh doorzdqfhv +Wlwoh LY,1
Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh whfkqltxh fkrlfh zdv pdgh dw d vlqjoh srlqw lq wlph= zkhq wkh xqlw lv ehlqj
exlow/ lq wkh fdvh ri QVSV0G sodqwv/ ru lq wkh |hdu ru wzr diwhu wkh sdvvdjh ri wkh 4<<3 Fohdq Dlu
Dfw/ iru Wlwoh LY sodqwv156
61514 Wkh dqwlflsdwhg frvwv ri vzlwfklqj dqg vfuxeelqj
Zh prgho wkh ghflvlrq ri zkhwkhu ru qrw wr lqvwdoo d vfuxeehu/ ehfdxvh wkdw ghflvlrq lv zkdw zh
revhuyh lq wkh gdwd157 Zh vxssrvh wkdw dw wkh wlph ri wkh vfuxeelqj ghflvlrq/ wkh pdqdjhu ri hdfk
54 Ri frxuvh/ iru qhzo| frqvwuxfwhg xqlwv/ xqghu wkh QVSV0G uhjlph/ d xqlw lv qrw (cid:19)vzlwfklqj(cid:20) frdov/ exw udwkhu
exuqlqj d orzhu0vxoixu frdo wkdq lw zrxog lq wkh devhqfh ri uhjxodwlrq1 Iru hdvh ri glvfxvvlrq/ zh zloo xvh wkh whup
(cid:19)frdo0vzlwfklqj(cid:20) wr lqfoxgh wkh exuqlqj ri orz0vxoixu frdo e| QVSV0G xqlwv dv zhoo dv Wlwoh LY xqlwv1
55 Lq idfw/ wkh h{lvwhqfh ri vxfk d sulfh suhplxp zloo dovr ghshqg rq vxlwdeoh frqglwlrqv rq wkh vxsso| vlgh dqg lq
rwkhu pdunhwv iru wkh ixho1 Orrvho| vshdnlqj/ d sulfh suhplxp fdq dulvh rxw ri d prgho ri (cid:19)yhuwlfdo gl(cid:30)huhqwldwlrq(cid:20)
lq wkh pdunhw iru wkh ixho/ vlqfh doo (cid:31)upv vxemhfw wr wkh uhjxodwlrq zloo dwwdfk d kljkhu ydoxh wr wkh orz0hplvvlrqv
ixho/ doo hovhhtxdo1 Irusuhvhqw sxusrvhv/ zh vlpso| dvvxphwkh h{lvwhqfh ri wkhsuhplxp/ ohdylqj wkh h{sorudwlrq ri
lwv ghwhuplqdqwv iru ixwxuh uhvhdufk1
56 Lqwkhru|/WlwohLYxqlwvfrxogkdyhfkrvhqwrlqvwdoovfuxeehudwdq|wlph1 Lqidfw/wkh|hlwkhughflghgwrlqvwdoo
dvfuxeehuirurshudwlrqe|hduo|rqlqSkdvhL/ruwkh|glgqrwlqvwdoorqhdwdoo1 Wkxv/irurxugdwd/wkhdvvxpswlrq
wkdw wkh ghflvlrq zdv pdgh lq 4<<4 ru 4<<5 lv dssursuldwh1
Qrqhwkhohvv/ wkh idfw wkdw d Wlwoh LY xqlw kdg wkh rswlrq wr ghod| lqyhvwphqw lq dvfuxeehu qhhgv wr eh wdnhq lqwr
dffrxqw1 Zhuhwxuqwrwklvvxemhfwlqrxuglvfxvvlrqriwkhhfrqrphwulfprgho/ehorz1 Vhhdovrwkhglvfxvvlrqlqqrwh
43 deryh1
57 Lwzrxogdovrehrilqwhuhvwwrprghowkhfrdo0vzlwfklqjghflvlrqgluhfwo|1 Grlqjvr/krzhyhu/uhtxluhvghwhuplqlqj
zklfkxqlwvvzlwfkhg frdov/ dqgzkdw frdovwkh| vzlwfkhg wr1 Zklohzhkrshwrdgguhvv wklv lvvxh lqixwxuhzrun/iru
fxuuhqw sxusrvhv zh irfxv rq wkh suhvhqfh ru devhqfh ri d vfuxeehu1
<
xqlw zhljkhg wkh dqwlflsdwhg frvwv ri rqh whfkqltxh djdlqvw wkh rwkhu lq fkrrvlqj d whfkqltxh1 Zh
xvhwkhwhup(cid:19)dqwlflsdwhgfrvwv(cid:20)wrxqghuvfruhwkhqrwlrqwkdwwkhfkrlfhriwhfkqltxhlvghwhuplqhg
qrwe|zkdwwkhdfwxdo frvwvwxuqrxwwreh/exwudwkhue|zkdwfrvwvduhdqwlflsdwhge|wkhghflvlrq
pdnhu1
Dw wkh fruh ri pdqdjhu*v hvwlpdwh ri wkh dqwlflsdwhg frvwv duh wkh fdslwdo dqg rshudwlqj frvwv
ri wkh wzr whfkqltxhv1 Erwk wkh fdslwdo dqg rshudwlqj frvwv ri vfuxeelqj pd| ydu| dprqj sodqwv/
gxh wr vxfk yduldeohv dv wkhlu vl}h/ wkh dprxqw ri frdo wkh| exuq/ wkh vxoixu frqwhqw ri wkhlu frdo/
wkhlu orfdwlrq/ dqg wkh djh ri wkhlu erlohu +iru uhwur(cid:31)wwhg vfuxeehuv,1 Ghqrwlqj vfuxeelqj e| d
vxshuvfulsw (cid:19)v(cid:20)/ ohw Frghqrwh wkh dyhudjh frvwv ri dedwlqj iurp p(cid:25) wr p e| vfuxeelqj iru xqlw l/
(cid:16) (cid:16)
zkhuh dyhudjh frvw lqfoxghv erwk fdslwdo dqg rshudwlqj frvw/ dqg lv h{suhvvhg shu srxqg ri vxoixu
glr{lgh dedwhg158
Wkhfrvwvrivzlwfklqjixhovduhgulyhqe|wkhsuhplxpiruorz0vxoixufrdo1 Lqsduw/wklvsuhplxp
zloo eh vhw e| wkh ghpdqg iru orz0vxoixu frdo +d ixqfwlrq ri wkh w|sh dqg vwulqjhqf| ri uhjxodwlrq,>
wklv frpsrqhqw zrxog eh frqvwdqw dfurvv sodqwv1 D vhfrqg frpsrqhqw ri wkh vxoixu suhplxp/
krzhyhu/ lv khwhurjhqhrxv= lw ydulhv zlwk orfdwlrq1 Erwk srzhu sodqwv dqg frdo duh jhrjudsklfdoo|
glvshuvhg1 Ehfdxvh wudqvsruwdwlrq frvwv pdnh xs d odujh iudfwlrq ri wkh sulfh ri gholyhuhg frdo/ wkh
h(cid:30)hfwlyh suhplxp iru orz0vxoixu frdo zloo eh orzhu iru wkrvh sodqwv wkdw duh forvhu wr orz0vxoixu frdo
ghsrvlwv1
Iru vlplodu uhdvrqv/ wkh fdslwdo frvw ri vzlwfklqj zloo ydu| dfurvv sodqwv1 Frdov iurp gl(cid:30)huhqw
uhjlrqv gl(cid:30)hu dorqj rwkhu glphqvlrqv wkdq wkhlu vxoixu frqwhqw= khdw frqwhqw/ dvk frqwhqw/ dqg
(cid:19)julqgdelolw|(cid:20) duh sduwlfxoduo| lpsruwdqw1 Wkh juhdwhu wkh gl(cid:30)huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh orz0vxoixu frdo
dqgwkhfrdowkherlohuzdvghvljqhgiru/ wkhkljkhuwkhfdslwdofrvwvwrfrqyhuwwkherlohu1 Ghqrwlqj
frdo0vzlwfklqje|wkhvxshuvfulsw(cid:19)f(cid:20)/ ohwFSghqrwhxqlwl*vdyhudjhfrpelqhgfdslwdodqgrshudwlqj
(cid:16)
frvwv +shu srxqg ri vxoixu glr{lgh dedwhg, ri dedwlqj iurp p(cid:25) wr p e| frdo0vzlwfklqj/ zkhuh wkh
(cid:16)
fdslwdo frvw lv dssursuldwho| dqqxdol}hg1
Rwkhu idfwruv pd| dovr sod| d uroh lq wkh uhodwlyh frvwv ri wkh wzr whfkqltxhv/ zlwkrxw d(cid:30)hfwlqj
phdvxuhg fdslwdo dqg rshudwlqj frvwv gluhfwo|1 Wkhvh lqfoxgh sulru h{shulhqfh zlwk vfuxeelqj>
vwdwxwru| eldvhv lqvwdwh odz wkdw idyrurqh whfkqltxh ruwkh rwkhu> uhjlrqdo orfdwlrq> wkh dprxqw ri
frdoxqghuorqj0whupfrqwudfw>zkhwkhudsodqwlvorfdwhgdwwkhprxwkridplqh> dqgwkhrzqhuvkls
vwuxfwxuh ri wkh sduhqw xwlolw|1 Wr wkh h{whqw wkdw lqirupdwlrq derxw h{shulhqfh gl(cid:30)xvhv dprqj
sodqw shuvrqqho zlwklq d xwlolw|/ zh pljkw h{shfw sdvw h{shulhqfh dw wkh xwlolw| ohyho wr d(cid:30)hfw wkh
suredelolw| ri vfuxeelqj dw wkh xqlw ohyho1 H{shulhqfh zlwk lqvwdoolqj hduolhu vfuxeehuv pljkw orzhu
wkh wrwdo frvwv ri lqvwdoolqj d qhz rqh/ pdnlqj vfuxeelqj pruh olnho|1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ li vfuxeehuv
dw rwkhu xqlwv rzqhg e| wkh xwlolw| kdyh suryhq pruh h{shqvlyh wkdq dqwlflsdwhg (cid:24) iru h{dpsoh/
ohvv uholdeoh ru kdughu wr rshudwh wkdq h{shfwhg (cid:24) sdvw h{shulhqfh pljkw glvvxdgh pdqdjhuv iurp
lqvwdoolqj vfuxeehuv/ pdnlqj vfuxeelqj ohvv olnho|1
Vwdwxwru| eldvhv lq vwdwh odzv pljkw dovr d(cid:30)hfw wkh wuxh frvwv ri vfuxeelqj1 Lq wkh zdnh ri
wkh 4<<3 Fohdq Dlu Dfw/ d ihz vwdwhv zlwk kljk0vxoixu frdo uhvhuyhv hqdfwhg ohjlvodwlrq lpsrvlqj
uhtxluhphqwv rq lq0vwdwh frdo xvh ru rwkhu uhtxluhphqwv phdqw wr idyru wkh xvh ri vfuxeehuv1
Uhjlrqdo gxpplhv pd| dovr slfn xs wkh h(cid:30)hfwv ri gl(cid:30)huhqfhv lq vwdwh xwlolw| dqg hqylurqphqwdo
uhjxodwlrqv1 Qruwkhdvwhuq vwdwhv/ iru h{dpsoh/ kdyh pruh vwulqjhqw dlu txdolw| vwdqgdugv/ zklfk
pljkw zhoo d(cid:30)hfw wkh suredelolw| ri vfuxeelqj1 Wkh (cid:19)vwdwxwru| eldv(cid:20) phdvxuh lqwurgxfhg deryh
sduwldoo| dffrxqwv iru uhjxodwru| gl(cid:30)huhqfhv/ exw lw irfxvhv vshfl(cid:31)fdoo| rq wkh dwwhpswv e| d ihz
vwdwhv wr glvfrxudjh xwlolwlhv iurp vzlwfklqj wr rxw0ri0vwdwh frdo xqghu Wlwoh LY1
Wkh h{shfwhg h(cid:30)hfwv ri orqj0whup frdo frqwudfwv duh vwudljkwiruzdug1 Vzlwfklqj ixhov zrxog
uhtxluh euhdnlqj dq| h{lvwlqj orqj0whup frqwudfwv> wkxv vfuxeelqj rxjkw wr eh pruh olnho|/ wkh
58 Zh wkxv dvvxph wkdw wkh fdslwdo frvwv duh dssursuldwho| dqqxdol}hg/ vr dv wr eh frpsdudeoh wr rshudwlqj frvwv1
43