Environmental Modelling Page 2 Companion website This book is accompanied by a companion ...

473 Pages·2013·7.39 MB·English

Environmental Modelling
Companionwebsite
Thisbookisaccompaniedbyacompanionwebsiteat:
www.wiley.com/go/wainwright/environmentalmodellingsimplicity
Visitthewebsitefor:
•FiguresandTablesfromthebook
Environmental
Modelling
Finding Simplicity in Complexity
Second Edition
John Wainwright
DepartmentofGeography,DurhamUniversity, UK
Mark Mulligan
DepartmentofGeography,King’sCollegeLondon, UK
A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication
Thiseditionfirstpublished20132013byJohnWiley&Sons,Ltd
Wiley-BlackwellisanimprintofJohnWiley&Sons,formedbythemergerofWiley’sglobalScientific,
TechnicalandMedicalbusinesswithBlackwellPublishing.
Registeredoffice:JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO19
8SQ,UK
Editorialoffices:9600GarsingtonRoad,Oxford,OX42DQ,UK
TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK
111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030-5774,USA
For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how
to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at
www.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell
Therightoftheauthortobeidentifiedastheauthorofthisworkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewith
theUKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingor
otherwise,exceptaspermittedbytheUKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,withouttheprior
permissionofthepublisher.
Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.All
brandnamesandproductnamesusedinthisbookaretradenames,servicemarks,trademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.Thepublisherisnotassociatedwithanyproductor
vendormentionedinthisbook.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthor(s)haveusedtheirbest
effortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracy
or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of
merchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Itissoldontheunderstandingthatthepublisheris
notengagedinrenderingprofessionalservicesandneitherthepublishernortheauthorshallbeliable
fordamagesarisingherefrom.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservices
ofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Environmentalmodelling:findingsimplicityincomplexity/[editedby]JohnWainwright
andMarkMulligan.–2nded.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-470-74911-1(cloth)
1.Environmentalsciences–Mathematicalmodels.I.Wainwright,John,1967-II.Mulligan,Mark,Dr.
GE45.M37E5932012
628–dc23
2012013010
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprint
maynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.
Setin9/11.5ptMinionbyLaserwordsPrivateLimited,Chennai,India.
FirstImpression2013
To Betty and John, for past and present inspiration, and Xavier and
Louren¸co for the future. (JW)
To my parents, David and Filomena, who taught (and teach) me so
much and Sophia, Charlie and Olive who are very good at coping
with all these whirring computers around the place. (MM)
Contents
PrefacetotheSecondEdition,xiii
PrefacetotheFirstEdition,xv
ListofContributors,xvii
PART I MODEL BUILDING, 1
1 Introduction,3
JohnWainwrightandMarkMulligan
1.1 Introduction,3
1.2 Whymodeltheenvironment?,3
1.3 Whysimplicityandcomplexity?,3
1.4 Howtousethisbook,5
1.5 Thebook’swebsite,6
References,6
2 ModellingandModelBuilding,7
MarkMulliganandJohnWainwright
2.1 Theroleofmodellinginenvironmentalresearch,7
2.2 Approachestomodelbuilding:chickens,eggs,modelsandparameters?,12
2.3 Testingmodels,16
2.4 Sensitivityanalysisanditsrole,18
2.5 Errorsanduncertainty,20
2.6 Conclusions,23
References,24
3 TimeSeries:AnalysisandModelling,27
BruceD.MalamudandDonaldL.Turcotte
3.1 Introduction,27
3.2 Examplesofenvironmentaltimeseries,28
3.3 Frequency-sizedistributionofvaluesinatimeseries,30
3.4 WhitenoisesandBrownianmotions,32
3.5 Persistence,34
3.6 Othertime-seriesmodels,41
3.7 Discussionandsummary,41
References,42
4 Non-LinearDynamics,Self-OrganizationandCellularAutomataModels,45
DavidFavis-Mortlock
4.1 Introduction,45
4.2 Self-organizationincomplexsystems,47
vii
viii Contents
4.3 Cellularautomatonmodels,53
4.4 Casestudy:modellingrillinitiationandgrowth,56
4.5 Summaryandconclusions,61
4.6 Acknowledgements,63
References,63
5 SpatialModellingandScalingIssues,69
XiaoyangZhang,NickA.DrakeandJohnWainwright
5.1 Introduction,69
5.2 Scaleandscaling,70
5.3 Causesofscalingproblems,71
5.4 Scalingissuesofinputparametersandpossiblesolutions,72
5.5 Methodologyforscalingphysicallybasedmodels,76
5.6 Scalingland-surfaceparametersforasoil-erosionmodel:acasestudy,82
5.7 Conclusion,84
References,87
6 EnvironmentalApplicationsofComputationalFluidDynamics,91
N.G.WrightandD.M.Hargreaves
6.1 Introduction,91
6.2 CFDfundamentals,92
6.3 ApplicationsofCFDinenvironmentalmodelling,97
6.4 Conclusions,104
References,106
7 Data-BasedMechanisticModellingandtheEmulationofLargeEnvironmental
SystemModels,111
PeterC.YoungandDavidLeedal
7.1 Introduction,111
7.2 Philosophiesofscienceandmodelling,113
7.3 Statisticalidentification,estimationandvalidation,113
7.4 Data-basedmechanistic(DBM)modelling,115
7.5 ThestatisticaltoolsofDBMmodelling,117
7.6 Practicalexample,117
7.7 Thereduced-ordermodellingoflargecomputer-simulationmodels,122
7.8 Thedynamicemulationoflargecomputer-simulationmodels,123
7.9 Conclusions,128
References,129
8 StochasticversusDeterministicApproaches,133
PhilippeRenard,AndresAlcoleaandDavidGinsbourger
8.1 Introduction,133
8.2 Aphilosophicalperspective,135
8.3 Toolsandmethods,137
8.4 ApracticalillustrationinOman,143
8.5 Discussion,146
References,148
PART II THE STATE OF THE ART IN ENVIRONMENTAL
MODELLING, 151
9 ClimateandClimate-SystemModelling,153
L.D.DannyHarvey
Contents ix
9.1 Thecomplexity,153
9.2 Findingthesimplicity,154
9.3 Theresearchfrontier,159
9.4 Onlinematerial,160
References,163
10 SoilandHillslope(Eco)Hydrology,165
AndrewJ.Baird
10.1 Hillslopee-c-o-hydrology?,165
10.2 Tyger,tyger...,169
10.3 Nobodylovesme,everybodyhatesme...,172
10.4 Memories,176
10.5 I’llavoidyouaslongasIcan?,178
10.6 Acknowledgements,179
References,180
11 ModellingCatchmentandFluvialProcessesandtheirInteractions,183
MarkMulliganandJohnWainwright
11.1 Introduction:connectivityinhydrology,183
11.2 Thecomplexity,184
11.3 Thesimplicity,196
11.4 Concludingremarks,201
References,201
12 ModellingPlantEcology,207
RosieA.Fisher
12.1 Thecomplexity,207
12.2 Findingthesimplicity,209
12.3 Theresearchfrontier,212
12.4 Casestudy,213
12.5 Conclusions,217
12.6 Acknowledgements,217
References,218
13 SpatialPopulationModelsforAnimals,221
GeorgeL.W.PerryandNickR.Bond
13.1 Thecomplexity:introduction,221
13.2 Findingthesimplicity:thoughtsonmodellingspatialecologicalsystems,222
13.3 Theresearchfrontier:marryingtheoryandpractice,227
13.4 Casestudy:dispersaldynamicsinstreamecosystems,228
13.5 Conclusions,230
13.6 Acknowledgements,232
References,232
14 VegetationandDisturbance,235
StefanoMazzoleni,FranciscoRego,FrancescoGiannino,ChristianErnestVincenot,
GianBorisPezzattiandColinLegg
14.1 Thesystemcomplexity:effectsofdisturbanceonvegetationdynamics,235
14.2 Themodelsimplification:simulationofplantgrowthundergrazingand
afterfire,237
14.3 Newdevelopmentsinecologicalmodelling,240
14.4 Interactionsoffireandgrazingonplantcompetition:fieldexperimentand
modellingapplications,242
14.5 Conclusions,247
x Contents
14.6 Acknowledgements,248
References,248
15 ErosionandSedimentTransport:FindingSimplicityinaComplicatedErosion
Model,253
RichardE.Brazier
15.1 Thecomplexity,253
15.2 Findingthesimplicity,253
15.3 WEPP–TheWaterErosionPredictionProject,254
15.4 MIRSED–aMinimumInformationRequirementversionofWEPP,256
15.5 Datarequirements,258
15.6 Observeddatadescribingerosionrates,259
15.7 Mappingpredictederosionrates,259
15.8 Comparisonwithpublisheddata,262
15.9 Conclusions,264
References,264
16 Landslides,RockfallsandSandpiles,267
StefanHergarten
References,275
17 FindingSimplicityinComplexityinBiogeochemicalModelling,277
Ho¨rdurV.HaraldssonandHaraldSverdrup
17.1 Introductiontomodels,277
17.2 Thebasicclassificationofmodels,278
17.3 A‘good’anda‘bad’model,278
17.4 Daretosimplify,279
17.5 Sorting,280
17.6 Thebasicpath,282
17.7 Theprocess,283
17.8 Biogeochemicalmodels,283
17.9 Conclusion,288
References,288
18 RepresentingHumanDecision-MakinginEnvironmentalModelling,291
JamesD.A.Millington,JohnWainwrightandMarkMulligan
18.1 Introduction,291
18.2 Scenarioapproaches,294
18.3 Economicmodelling,297
18.4 Agent-basedmodelling,300
18.5 Discussion,304
References,305
19 ModellingLandscapeEvolution,309
PetervanderBeek
19.1 Introduction,309
19.2 Modelsetupandphilosophy,310
19.3 Geomorphicprocessesandmodelalgorithms,313
19.4 Modeltestingandcalibration,318
19.5 Couplingofmodels,321
19.6 Modelapplication:someexamples,321
19.7 Conclusionsandoutlook,324
References,327
Contents xi
PART III MODELS FOR MANAGEMENT, 333
20 ModelsSupportingDecision-MakingandPolicyEvaluation,335
MarkMulligan
20.1 Thecomplexity:makingdecisionsandimplementingpolicyinthereal
world,335
20.2 Thesimplicity:state-of-the-artpolicy-supportsystems,341
20.3 Addressingtheremainingbarriers,345
20.4 Conclusions,347
20.5 Acknowledgements,347
References,347
21 ModelsinPolicyFormulationandAssessment:TheWadBOSDecision-Support
System,349
GuyEngelen
21.1 Introduction,349
21.2 FunctionsofWadBOS,350
21.3 Decision-supportsystems,351
21.4 Buildingtheintegratedmodel,351
21.5 TheintegratedWadBOSmodel,354
21.6 Thetoolbase,359
21.7 Thedatabase,359
21.8 Theuser-interface,360
21.9 Discussionandconclusions,362
21.10 Acknowledgments,363
References,363
22 SoilErosionandConservation,365
MarkA.Nearing
22.1 Theproblem,365
22.2 Theapproaches,367
22.3 Thecontributionsofmodelling,369
22.4 Lessonsandimplications,375
22.5 Acknowledgements,376
References,376
23 Forest-ManagementModelling,379
MarkJ.TweryandAaronR.Weiskittel
23.1 Theissue,379
23.2 Theapproaches,379
23.3 Componentsofempiricalmodels,383
23.4 Implementationanduse,386
23.5 Examplemodel,390
23.6 Lessonsandimplications,390
References,391
24 StabilityandInstabilityintheManagementofMediterraneanDesertification,399
JohnB.Thornes
24.1 Introduction,399
24.2 Basicpropositions,400
24.3 Complexinteractions,403
24.4 Climategradientandclimatechange,408
24.5 Implications,409