Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000–2050: Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000–2050 Madrid, Spain 2–5 October 2002

380 Pages·2004·9.18 MB·English

by  A. Marquina (auth.)

Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean
2000-2050
NATO Science Series
A Series presenting the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Science
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Series IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences - Vol. 37
Environmental Challenges in the
Mediterranean 2000-2050
edited by
Antonio Marquina
Department of International Studies,
Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain
Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on
Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000-2050
Madrid, Spain
2-5 October 2002
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-1-4020-1949-4 ISBN 978-94-007-0973-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-0973-7
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
©2004 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2004
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2004
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any
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otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any
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ter system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
Table of Contents
Foreword 1
SECTION I
Environmental Security
1 EnvironmentalSecurityand Human Security 5
A.Marquina
SECTION II
Climate Change, Scenariosand Modelling
2 SolarVariability andClimateChange 29
M Vazquez
3 Qualitative-quantitativescenarios as a means to support sustainability-oriented
regional planning 47
P.Doll
4 Climate change and the occurrence of extremes: some implications for the
Mediterranean Basin 61
J. P.Palutikof and T.Holt
5 Regional IPCCProjections until 2100in the MediterraneanArea 75
M de Castro, C.Gallardo andS.Calabria
SECTION III
Desertification Impacts
6 Desertification in the Maghreb: A Case Study of an Algerian High-Plain
Steppe 93
H. Slimani andA.Aidoud
7 Prospects for Desertification Impacts for Egyptand Libya 109
MNasr
8 ProspectiveDesertification Trends In The Negev- Implications For Urban And
Regional Development 123
B.A.PortnovandU'N. Safriel
vi EnvironmentalChallenges intheMediterranean2000-2050
9 The Prospects of the Impact of Desertification on Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and
Iraq 139
K.Haktanir,A.Karaca,S.M Omar
10 Prospectsfor desertification impactsinSouthern Europe 155
1.Puigdefabregas & T.Mendizabal
SECTION IV
WaterAvailability
11 From Water Scarcityto Water Security in the Maghreb Region: The Moroccan
Case...............•............................................................................•..........................175
M AitKadi
12 WaterScarcityProspectsin Egypt2000- 2050 187
S.T.Abdel-Gawadh,M Kandi!and T.M Sadek
13 Waterworries inJordan and Israel: What maythe future hold? 205
ShlomiDinar
14 In the longterm,willthere bewatershortagein Mediterranean Europe?....233
1.Margat
SECTION V
Population Growth
15ImplicationsofPopulation Declinefor the European Union(2000-2050) 247
1.DiezNicolas
16Population Growth inTheEuro-Mediterranean Region 265
H.Makhlouf
SECTION VI
Food Prospects
17 Food Trade of the Mediterranean Countries in a World Context: Prospects to
2030 283
N.Alexandratos
18Food SecurityProspects inthe Maghreb 301
S.Benjelloun
19EU Agriculture and Common Agricultural Policy: Prospects for the 21st
Century and Implicationsfor MediterraneanCountries 319
J.M Garcia-Alvarez-Coque
Tableof contents VII
SECTIONVII
Urbanisation
20 Urban ChangeinCairo........................................•.................................................331
H.Abdelhamid
21Implications ofUrbanizationfor Turkey.The Case ofIstanbuJ... 345
R.Keles
SECTION VIII
Pollution
22The Pollutionofthe Mediterranean:PresentStateand Prospects 363
FrancecoS.Civili
Editor 377
Index 383
Foreword
This book collects most of the contributions prepared for the NATO Advanced Research
Workshop(ARW)onEnvironmental ChallengesintheMediterranean 2000-2050.TheARWtook
placeinMadrid from2to5ofOctober2002.
Scholarsand researchers fromNorth and South oftheMediterranean andothercountries from
NATO gathered in Madrid for discussing several important factors that could affect
Mediterranean security inthe next50 years. In this regard the first chapter presents the different
debates regarding environmental security that took place in the last decade. This chapter is an
introductory chapter and takes intoaccount the possible audience in the Southern Mediterranean
andthewishesofsomecontributors.Forthisreasonthechapter dealsinextensowiththequestion
ofhumansecurityandthedifferent approaches.
TheARW dealtwith issuesthatmayaffect thesupplyoffundamentalgoodsforhuman living.
Tothisendthecomplex question ofclimatechange, itsimpactintheMediterranean, thepredicted
increase in temperatures and predictions about rainfall are analysed. As part ofthis approach a
chapteraboutsolarvariability andclimatechange isalsoadded.
There are uncertainties regarding the increase (decrease) of seasonal precipitation and
temperature variability in the next decades in the Mediterranean. Probably some predictions on
climatechange forthenextdecade havebecome arealitynowintheMediterranean.Butthere isa
consensus that significant changes will take place in this regard and that they will have serious
implications for human health,economic activities and food production,biodiversity, and human
comfort and will require substantial adaptation and mitigation strategies to be managed
successfully.
In regard to desertification, it is defined, according to the United Nations Convention to
Combat Desertification. Several authors explain from different angles the importance of this
question intheMediterranean.TheadaptivestrategiesputinplaceintheMaghreb;themagnitude,
trends and projections in Egypt and Lybia and the positive prospects of human efforts in
adaptation;thepracticesofcombating desertificationintheNegev,thenewtechnologies usedand
thealternatives proposed fordevelopment ofarid and hyper-arid areas;the situationand policies
to be implemented in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq; the insufficiency of some policies of
restoration to reverse the relict desertification in Southern Europe and the implications and
transformations induced by changes in the European Common Agricultural Policies and
internationalmarket forces.Allthisresearch helptoimprove ourknowledge aboutthe extent, the
causes and the factors triggering desertification processes and the relevance ofadaptive policies
andstrategiesalreadyimplemented andtheneedformoreambitiousstrategiesandpolicies.
With respecttowater,there isaconsensus amongthedifferent authors thatwaterdemand will
increase in the Mediterranean and taking into consideration factors such as climate change,
population growth, increasing urbanisation and pollution of water, the prospects are dim. The
countries bordering the Mediterranean areexperiencingandwillexperience seriousscarcities and
willneedtoreform their watersector.Thebook presents someplans andpolicies implemented or
to be implemented in several Mediterranean countries to reform the sector. But as regards the
policies ofconservation,use ofground water aquifers, desalination, waste water reclamation and
transformation of agricultural sector, the political will and ingenuity differ depending on the
country.Reformsareslow intheMaghreb.Amediumtermplan hasbeenputinplace inEgypt.A
verysophisticatedapproach hasbeencarriedoutinIsrael.InJordan, ambitious projects havetobe
implemented. In Southern Europe the long term structural water shortages should remain
concentrated inafewregions.Forinstance, inSpain,the Ebrowater transfer isjustintheprocess
ofimplementation forthealleviationofthesituation intheSpanish Levant.
2 EnvironmentalChallengesintheMediterranean2000-2050
New inputs for understanding the adaptive policies in progress can be find in the chapters
dealing with population growth in the Southern Mediterranean and in particular in the chapter
dealingwith thepopulationdeclineinthe European Union.The authorconcludesthatsocialrather
than demographic changes are needed to adapt to the expected population trends. The second
chapteremphasizesthe need for co-operationfor helpingcountrieswitha high rate ofpopulation
growth tocomplete the third stageofdemographic transition.These pressures and the processof
increasing urbanisation have important implications on land-use, greenhouse emissions and food
securityandconsumption.The chaptersdealingwith food trade,foodsecurityand EUagricultural
policy show the dependence of the Mediterranean countries, and in particular the non-EU
Mediterranean countries, on world markets for importing considerable parts oftheir food needs.
Thisdependence will persist due to populationgrowth and environmental changesthat affect and
may affect severely the agriculture ofthe Mediterranean region.The gradual liberalisation ofthe
Euro-Mediterranean agricultural trade will be an important step in the adaptive responses. But
accessisnotapanaceaand the removal ofsubsidies on the part ofthe majorOCDEcountrieswill
affect thefood prices.Ontheotherhand,thegradual adjustmentsinthe EU CommonAgricultural
Policy will be centred on territorial, human factors and the contribution of agriculture to
preservingtheenvironmentand therural landscape.
Two examples of increasing urbanisation are included: The cases of Cairo and Istanbul.
Several importantchangesare taking place.GreaterCairohas ceasedto attract alarge proportion
ofmigratory population in Egypt. The trend points to a transition from a compact city to a vast
diffused spatial development. The quality oflife has greatly degenerated and immigration rates
have declinedand itisquestionablewhetherfuture growthprojectionswill materialise.Regarding
Istanbul the environmental problems are difficult to manage but Turkey's future membership in
the EUimpliesthe progressiveadaptationofthe EUrulesonenvironment.This will alsoimplyan
adaptationprocessthat will improvethe presentsituation.The prospectsforthestabilisationofthe
populationbytheyear2020 havetobeadded tothis.
The book ends with a chapter on the pollution of the Mediterranean and the prospects for
implementation ofthe protocolfortheProtectionofthe MediterraneanSeaAgainst Pollution from
Land-BasedSourcesandthe StrategicActionProgramme.
The chapters ofthis book constitute an important input for further research on adaptation,
mitigation, conservation and risk reduction policies to be implemented to increase resilience to
environmentalchange inthe Mediterranean.There are significantuncertainties to beclarified,but
the partial conclusions ofthis book do not permit bold interpretations and predictions,although
the situation is worrying. Significant adaptation, mitigation, conservation and risk reduction
strategies are taking place and new strategies can be implemented. The cost, however, will
probablybecomeacrucial barrier fortheadoptionofthese strategies.It isaquestion ofevaluating
the cost of inaction or weak policies for national, international and human security. Conflict
prevention,focusingonamiddle termtime scale,iscrucialinthis regard.
Finally I have to emphasise that this ARW received generous support by NATO Scientific
Committee. Later, EI Real Instituto Elcano (Madrid) provided the funds needed to fill the gap in
the cost ofthe projected activities, includingthe book editing,thus substituting the promises and
commitments ofthe General Secretary ofthe Spanish Ministry ofEnvironment that were never
fulfilled. I have to give my thanks to Rafael Bardaji (deputy director) and Emilio Lamo de
Espinosa(director)fortheirgeneroussupport.
Ialso give my thanks to all the participantsofthe ARW and the contributors to this book for
their support,given the economic uncertaintieswe had to sufferduring more than twelve months
for the reasons alreadyexplained.To the different reviewersofthe chapters.And to Gracia Abad
and Alberto Priego, UNISCI members, for their supportand dedication totheorganisationofthe
ARW andtheeditingofthis book.
Antonio Marquina
DirectorofUNISCI
Section I
Environmental Security