Environmental Assessment of Socioeconomic Systems

587 Pages·1978·12.271 MB·English

by  John Davoll (auth.), Dietrich F. Burkhardt, William H. Ittelson (eds.)

ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT OF
SOCIOECONOMIC
SYSTEMS
NATO CONFERENCE SERIES
I Ecology
II Systems Science
III Human Factors
IV Marine Sciences
V Air-Sea Interactions
II SYSTEMS SCIENCE
Volume 1 Transportation Planning for a Better Environment
Edited by Peter Stringer and H. Wenzel
Volume 2 Arctic Systems
Edited by P. J. Amaria, A. A. Bruneau, and P. A. Lapp
Volume 3 Environmental Assessment of Socioeconomic Systems
Edited by Dietrich F. Burkhardt and William H. Ittelson
Volume 4 Earth Observation Systems for Resource Management and Environmental Control
Edited by Donald J. Clough and Lawrence W. Morley
Volume 5 Applied General Systems Research: Recent Developments and Trends
Edited by George J. Klir
ENVIRONMENTAL
~SSESSMENT OF
SOCIOECONOMIC
SYSTEMS
Edited by
Dietrich F. Burkhardt
Industrieanlagen-Betriebsgesellschaft mbH
Ottobrunn, West Germany
and
William H. Ittelson
University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona
Published in coordination with NATO Scientific Affairs Division by
PLENUM PRESS . NEW YORK AND LONDON
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Environmental assessment of socioeconomic systems.
(NATO conference series: II, Systems science; v. 3)
Proceedings of a conference held in Istanbul, Turkey, Oct. 4-8,1976, sponsored by
the NATO Special Program Panels on Systems Science and Human Factors.
Includes index.
1. Human ecology-Congresses. 2. Environmental policy-Congresses. 3. Technolo
gy-Social aspects-Congresses. 4. Planning-Congresses. I. Burkhardt, Dietrich. II.
Ittelson, William H. III. NATO Special Program Panel on Systems Science. IV. NATO
Special Program Panel on Human Factors. V. Series.
GF3.E58 301.3 77-23528
ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-2522-2 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-2520-8
001: 10.1007/978-1-4684-2520-8
Proceedings of a conference on Environmental Assessment of Socioeconomic Sys
tems held in Istanbul, Turkey, October 4-8,1976, sponsored by the NATO Special
Program Panels on Systems Science and Human Factors
© 1978 Plenum Press, New York
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1978
A Division of Plenum Publishing Corporation
227 West 17th Street, New York, N.Y. 10011
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted,
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The editors would like to thank Dr. B.A. Bayraktar for his
assistance and the administrative director of the conference,
Professor Dr. 1.1. Karayalfin and his staff, whose activities guar
anteed the success of the conference, also the chairmen of the ses
sions: M. R. Cruon, Professor Dr. Dogrusoz, Professor Dr. J. Klaus,
Mr. P.C. Roberts, Dr. G.H. Winkel and Dr. Ch.P. Wolf, whose efforts
substantially enriched the scientific level of the discussion. Last
but not least we would like to thank Mrs. P. Bydlinski for her pa
tience in typing and correcting the manuscripts and Mrs. B. Kane
for all her help in preparing the conference.
v
CONTENTS
Introduction xi
SESSION I
METHODOLOGY: PLANNING
Systematic Distortion in Planning and Assessment . . . . . .. 3
J. Davoll
Planning Sociotechnical Systems
E. Rupp
Demo-Economic Policy Simulations for Belgium • . 29
R. Lesthaeghe, S. Wijewickrema, M. Despontin,
and A. De Kerpel
Socio-Economic Systems, Urban Growth and
Settlement Patterns (The Case
of Turkey) • • • • • • • • • • 49
R. Keles
SESSION II
METHODOLOGY: PREDICTION
Some Future Uses of Analytic Forecasting • • • . . . • • • .. 71
E. Solem
The Development of Policy-Sensitive Models . . • . • . . . •• 83
H.-P. Weber
Intuitive Prediction of Growth • 103
W. A. Wagenaar and H. Timmers
Models for Prediction under Conditions
of Interaction 123
P. C. Roberts
vii
viii CONTENTS
SESSION III
METHODOLOGY: ASSESSMENT
Universal Checklists in the Concept
of "Impact Trees" . • •• 133
U. Liebermeister
Problems with People, Decision, Conflict,
Language and Measurement • • • • 159
K. C. Bowen and J. I. Harris
Long-Term Policy Assessment of Energy/Environment
Systems: A Conceptual and Methodological
Framework 183
W. K. Foell
Economic and Environmental Assessment of
a Water Quality Management System
(River Neckar) ••••.••••• 203
J. Klaus
Behavior Settings: The Building Blocks of
Social Systems . • . . • . • • • 225
M. Gurkaynak and W. A. LeCompte
SESSION IV
CASE STUDIES: ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Government Regulation and Rail Safety 241
H. P. Johri, J. D. Milne, and R. E. Wright
Towards a Social Psychology of the Traffic Environment 263
C. K. Knapper and A. J. Cropley
Control Methodology of the U.K. Road Traffic System. . • .. 279
M. R. C. McDowell and D. F. Cooper
Traffic Policing, Effectiveness Measurement
and Resource Allocation 299
S. Freckleton, N. Ferguson, and M. E. Moncaster
A Suggested Framework for Evaluating the
Assessment of a Technological System 317
D. W. Fischer and R. W. Keith
Assessment of Alternative Energy/Environment Futures:
A Comparative Case Study of Wisconsin (USA), the
German Democratic Republic, and Rhone-Alpes
(France) • • • • . • . . • • . . • . • • • 335
W. K. Foell, F. Buehring, W. Buehring, R. Dennis,
K. Ito, R. Keeny and B. Lapillonne
CONTENTS ix
SESSION V
CASE STUDIES: ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS
The Distribution of Environmental Quality:
Some Canadian Evidence . . . • . • 361
B. A. Emmett, L. E. Perron and P. F. Ricci
Social Stability Analysis - Can Carrying
Capacity Provide an Answer to Public
Policy in Canada? •••.••••• 377
P. F. Ricci
Environmental Quality Change in Several
Socio-Economic Contexts in France:
1970 - 1995 .•... . . . . . . 395
J. Theys
Environmental Control: A Methodology for Planning
Change in Public Housing • • . . • • • . 433
R. M. Fenker
Environment and Public Policy in the United
States: A Diffusion Analysis ••• 441
V. Mahajan and M. Agarwal
Responses to Changing Urban Systems: An
Analysis of Public Education • 469
B. Anderson and J. Mark
SESSION VI
CASE STUDIES: ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL IMPACT
Environment and Energy on the Texas Gulf
Coast: An Economic Evaluation Model of
Alternative Policies • • . . 493
K. E. Haynes, J. E. Hazleton and W. T. Kleeman
Environmental Pollution and Its Social Impact . • 525
H. J. Karpe and D. Scholz
Social Perception of Industrial Odors . . 535
D. Agrafiotis, A. Baumerder, J. Brenot,
and F. de Lavergne
Impact Assessment and Participation: Case Studies
on Nuclear Power Siting in West Germany 551
V. J. Hartje and M. Dierkes
x CONTENTS
Environmental Planning and Social Response
at the Strategy Level .••••
F. E. Joyce and C. W. Sinclair
Register of Names • 581
Index • . . • . • 587
INTRODUCTION
Neglect of the relation between the socio-economic system and
its natural environment has had detrimental consequences in the
past, for example
- the pollution of the natural environment (water, air and
soil) by producing, using and consuming the products of our
industrialized economy,
- the forseeable exhaustion of natural resources by continuing
the increase of industrial production.
Most of the recent activities, both in research and in adminis
tration, against these impacts have been technically oriented, with
the aim of stimulating and introducing new technologies of produc
tion and new products to diminish the environmental pollution.
But these efforts, which are of course necessary, cannot be
successful in approaching the aim - which should and must in the
long-term view be defined as the development of society in balance
with the natural environment. Therefore, in addition to an assess
ment of technologies, emphasis should be put on an assessment of
socio-economic systems. On di~~erent levels, individual and social
preferences determine quantities and qualities of production and
consumption using economical values, e.g., market prices as regula
tors. Following this argumentation, an environment assessment of
activities against pollution has especially to consider the social
response to environmental impacts.
Of course, this topic must be a subject of interdisciplinary
research. The challenge concerned in this context is to increase
the knowledge of the relationship between social, economic and tech
nical subsets.
The authors of the following papers are all experts on the va
rious scientific disciplines. The necessity for an interdisciplin
ary treatment of the complex topic could therefore be fulfilled in
a very comprehensive way.