Enhancing European Security: Living in a Less Nuclear World PDF
Preview Enhancing European Security: Living in a Less Nuclear World
ENHANCING EUROPEAN SECURITY Also by Ian M. Cuthbertson THE ANTI-TACfiCAL BALLISTIC MISSILE ISSUE AND EUROPEAN SECURITY Also by David Robertson A DICfiONARY OF MODERN STRATEGY AND DEFENCE A THEORY OF PARTY COMPETITION CLASS AND THE BRITISH ELECfORATE IDEOLOGY, STRATEGY AND PARTY CHANGE (editor with Jan Budge) THE FRONTIERS OF POLITICAL THEORY (editor with M. Freeman) THE MODERN BRITISH POLITICAL SYSTEM (with Jan Budge eta/.) THE PENGUIN DICfiONARY OF POLITICS Enhancing European Security Living in a Less Nuclear World Ian M. Cuthbertson Research Associate Institute for East-West Security Studies and David Robertson Fellow and Tutor in Politics St Hugh's College, Oxford Foreword by John Edwin Mroz President, Institute for East-West Security Studies M in association with Palgrave Macmillan MACMILLAN ©Institute for East-West Security Studies 1990 The Institute for East-West Security Studies does not take or encourage specific policy positions. It is committed to encouraging and facilitating the discussion of important issues of concern to East and West. The views expressed in this book do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Board of Directors, the officers or the staff of the Institute. All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended), or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WCIE 7DP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1990 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Cuthbertson, Tan M. Enhancing European security: living in a less nuclear world. I. Europe. Nuclear weapons. Arms control I. Title IT. Robertson, David, 1946- 327 .I '74'094 ISBN 978-0-333-51361-3 ISBN 978-1-349-20682-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-l-349-20682-7 Contents List of Acronyms VII Foreword IX Preface X111 Part I 1 Introduction 3 2 Why Was INF Needed, and Would It Have Been Used? 23 3 Conventional Force Imbalances: How to Count, and Can We Count? 36 4 Conventional Force Imbalances: The Numbers 54 5 Is There a Special European Interest in European Security? 67 6 Is There a Pan-European Special Interest? 107 Intermission: 'On the Nature of the Next War' 121 Part II 7 Enhanced Security through Enhanced Force 129 8 Security by Buying More of What We Know 134 9 Security Enhancement by Conventional Modernization 150 10 Arms Control and All That 166 11 Security through Behavioral Modification 186 12 Combining Control and Enhancement 207 Index 217 v List of Acronyms ABM anti-ballistic missile (Treaty) ADE armored division equivalent AFV armored fighting vehicle ALCM air-launched cruise missile APC armored personnel carrier ASW anti-submarine warfare ATACM army tactical missile BAOR British Army of the Rhine BEF British Expeditionary Force BMD ballistic missile defense C31 command, control, communications and intelligence CBM confidence-building measure CDE Conference on Disarmament in Europe CEP circular error probable CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CMEA Council for Mutual Economic Assistance CSBM confidence- and security-building measure CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe CTB comprehensive test ban EC European Community EFA European fighter aircraft EFUN early first use of nuclear weapons ET emerging technology EW electromagnetic warfare FAR Force Action Rapide FEBA forward edge of the battle area FOFA Follow-on Forces Attack FRG Federal Republic of Germany GDR German Democratic Republic GLCM ground-launched cruise missile GNP gross national product GSFG Group of Soviet Forces in Germany HESH high-explosive squashed head ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile INF intermediate-range nuclear forces MAD mutual assured destruction MBFR Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction VII VIII List of Acronyms MBT main battle tank MIRV Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle MLRS multiple launch rocket system NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSWP non-Soviet Warsaw Pact OMG operational maneuver group PCF Parti Communist Fran<;ais PGM precision guided munitions POL petroleum, oils, lubricants POMCUS pre-positioned overseas material configured in unit sets RAF Royal Air Force RDT&E research, development, testing & engineering RO-FLOW roll-on/flow-through RV re-entry vehicle SAC Strategic Air Command SACEUR Supreme Allied Commander Europe SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SLBM submarine-launched ballistic missile SLCM sea-launched cruise missile SLR self-loading rifle SNF short-range nuclear forces SOP standard operating procedures SRAM short-range attack missile SSBN ballistic missile submarine START Strategic Arms Reduction Talks UN United Nations USAF United States Air Force VISTA very intelligent surveillance and target acquisition technologies WEU Western European Union WTO Warsaw Treaty Organization Foreword The issues of conventional arms control and the denuclearization of Europe have come to dominate the policy debate between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The outcome of the debate will affect not only the 23 countries of the two military alliances, but all the countries of Europe. In Enhancing European Security: Living in a Less Nuclear World, Ian Cuthbertson and David Robertson move beyond this immediate policy debate to envisage a Europe in which conventional forces have been substantially reduced and in which nuclear weapons no longer perform a significant deterrent role. Until recently this would have seemed a daring premise. Today, however, it is a prospect with which the political and military leadership in both East and West must grapple as they shape the agenda of the Vienna negotiations on Conventional Forces in Europe. Without a vision of what the future shape of military forces in Europe should be, there can be no coherent negotiating process. Cuthbertson and Robertson have staked out a bold position. Although they believe that the level of both conventional and nuclear forces in Europe should and will be reduced, they do not consider that the military instrument will have lost all of its value in European political affairs. They still see a need to be prepared for tension and conflict between the two alliances in Europe, and between the United States and the Soviet Union. In this volume Cuthbertson and Robertson, two respected British specialists, make specific, selective recommendations for targets of force reductions, with particular emphasis on the support systems necessary for sustained occupation of seized territory. They also stress the need for asymmetrical reductions - in the sense that the two superpowers should withdraw and demobilize more forces than their European allies to ensure that the reductions will be irrevers ible. The authors are well aware of the security concerns of Euro peans - which are often overshadowed and even contradicted by those of the superpowers - and they recognize that the European members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact do not want to become more dependent on their respective superpowers as a result of cuts in conventional forces in Europe. The authors try to accommodate the interests and concerns of all parties in their recommendations for reductions. IX X Foreword The Institute for East-West Security Studies is pleased to sponsor this volume, which is in keeping with the Institute's own focus on enhancing European stability through conventional arms control and disarmament. Both authors are actively involved in the Institute's Task Force Working Group on Conventional Arms Reduction and Stability, which brings together high-level policy-makers, civilian experts and military officers from NATO and the Warsaw Pact to discuss critical aspects of conventional arms control. This book is the result of the fruitful collaboration fostered by the Institute's Resident Fellows program, which brings together in New York security specialists and officials from Eastern and Western Europe for a year of ongoing interaction and debate on crucial security issues. Ian M. Cuthbertson was a Resident Fellow from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London in 1986-7 before joining the Institute's full-time research staff in 1988. David Robertson has served as a Krupp Foundation Senior Associate on loan from Oxford University since the fall of 1987. Their work on this book was enhanced by the input of the Fellows and staff of the Institute, and the manuscript in its various stages was subjected to an intensive East-West review process by both the 1987-8 and the 1988-9 Fellows teams. Thanks are due in particular to F. Stephen Larrabee, Vice President and Director of Studies, and Allen Lynch, Deputy Director of Studies, for their critical commentary. The hard work of Institute Director of Publications Peter B. Kaufman and Publications Editor Mary Albon, who spent many hours editing the manuscript, assured the timely publication of the book. Special appreciation is paid to the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Founda tion and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for making this publication possible. The Carnegie Corporation's support of Ian M. Cuthbertson's work as an IEWSS Research Associate and funding from the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach-Foundation of the Federal Republic of Germany for David Robertson's fellowship are gratefully acknowledged. As the momentum for conventional arms reduction in Europe increases and the broader implications of the process for European stability become evident, this book should contribute substantially to the debate on the future shape of the European security agenda. As a part of its own effort to examine the key security issues facing both East and West in the 1990s, the Institute for East-West
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