Engineering Catastrophes: Causes and Effects of Major Accidents

289 Pages·2005·2.54 MB·English

by  John F. Lancaster

Engineering catastrophes
Related titles from Woodhead’s materials list:
Fatigue in railway structures
ISBN-13:978-185573-740-2
ISBN-10:1-85573-740-X
Fatigue strength of welded structures
ISBN-13:978-185573-506-4
ISBN-10:1-85573-506-7
Cumulative damage of welded joints
ISBN-13:978-185573-938-3
ISBN-10:1-85573-938-0
Emerging infrastructure materials
ISBN-13:978-185573-943-7
ISBN-10:1-85573-943-7
Analysis and design of plated structures Volume I:Stability
ISBN-13:978-185573-967-3
ISBN-10:1-85573-967-4
Details of these books and a complete list of Woodhead’s materials titles can be
obtained by:
• Visiting our web site at www.woodheadpublishing.com
• Contacting Customer Services (e-mail:[email protected];
fax:[phone];tel:[phone] ext 30;address:Woodhead
Publishing Limited,Abington Hall,Abington,Cambridge CB1 6AH,England)
Engineering catastrophes
Causes and effects of major accidents
Third edition
JOHN LANCASTER
Cambridge England
Published by Woodhead Publishing Limited,Abington Hall,Abington
Cambridge CB1 6AH,England
www.woodheadpublishing.com
Published in North America by CRC Press LLC,6000 Broken Sound
Parkway,NW,Suite 300,Boca Raton,FL 33487,USA
First edition 1996,Abington Publishing
Reprinted in paperback 1997
Second edition 2000,Abington Publishing and CRC Press LLC
Third edition 2005,Woodhead Publishing Ltd and CRC Press LLC
© 2005,Woodhead Publishing Ltd
The author has asserted his moral rights.
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded
sources.Reprinted material is quoted with permission,and sources are indicated.
Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information,but
the author and the publishers cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all
materials.Neither the author nor the publishers,nor anyone else associated with
this publication,shall be liable for any loss,damage or liability directly or
indirectly caused or alleged to be caused by this book.
Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form
or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopying,microfilming
and recording,or by any information storage or retrieval system,without
permission in writing from the publishers.
The consent of Woodhead Publishing and CRC Press does not extend to
copying for general distribution,for promotion,for creating new works,or for
resale.Specific permission must be obtained in writing from Woodhead
Publishing or CRC Press for such copying.
Trademark notice:Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks,and are used only for identification and explanation,without intent
to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
Woodhead Publishing ISBN-13:978-1-84569-016-8 (book)
Woodhead Publishing ISBN-10:1-84569-016-8 (book)
Woodhead Publishing ISBN-13:978-1-84569-081-6 (e-book)
Woodhead Publishing ISBN-10:1-84569-081-8 (e-book)
CRC Press ISBN-10:0-8493-9878-9
CRC Press order number:WP9878
The publishers’policy is to use permanent paper from mills that operate a
sustainable forestry policy,and which has been manufactured from pulp which is
processed using acid-free and elementary chlorine-free practices.
Furthermore,the publishers ensure that the text paper and cover board used
have met acceptable environmental accreditation standards.
Typeset by SNP Best-set Typesetter Ltd.,Hong Kong
Printed by TJ International Ltd,Padstow,Cornwall,England
Contents
Preface to third edition ix
Preface to second edition xii
Preface to first edition xv
Acknowledgements xvii
Chapter 1 Analysing casualty records 1
How big is a catastrophe? 1
Perspectives 2
Collective skills 5
Exponential fall in accident rates 7
The gradient b 8
The mechanical case 9
The learning process 12
Perturbations 14
Cause and effect 16
Conclusions 18
References 18
Chapter 2 Accident and all-cause mortality:economic
growth 19
The effect of sex and age group 19
Industry and transport:the normal case 22
Exceptions 38
Changing human behaviour 47
National productivity and accident rates 48
Conclusions 49
References 52
Chapter 3 Supercatastrophes 54
Shipping accidents 54
Catastrophes in the oil and gas production industry 77
v
vi Contents
Catastrophes involving air travel 103
The chemical industry 120
Rail accidents 127
Comment 133
References 137
Chapter 4 The technical background 139
Mechanical failure 139
Catastrophes resulting from the brittle failure of steel 152
Fatigue cracking 165
Other types of fracture 172
Theoretical aspects of explosions 179
References 189
Chapter 5 How technological change affects safety 191
The role of the material 192
Air transport 202
Shipping 212
The oil and gas industry 219
Hydrocarbon processing 227
Land transport 232
References 234
Chapter 6 Natural catastrophes 235
Natural catastrophes and a country’s level of productivity 235
The effects of natural disasters 238
Earthquakes 243
References 253
Appendix 1:Mathematical models and statistical methods
for accident data 254
The trend curve 254
Linear regression 254
Non-dimensional forms of the trend curve 256
Casualty numbers 256
Hyperbolic models 257
Variance 257
The Gaussian frequency distribution 258
The spread of data 259
The neutral case 260
Contents vii
Appendix 2:Units 262
Abbreviations 262
Conversion factors 263
Index 265

Preface to third edition
There is a widely held, but rarely stated theory of accidents, according to
which each and every mishap has a cause, and that safety may best be
assured by discovering these causes and preventing their occurrence.The
first edition of this book was written from such a viewpoint,with particular
emphasis on mechanical failure.One reviewer of this edition pointed out,
quite correctly, that the human factor had been ignored. Accordingly an
extra chapter was added to the second edition,where the manner in which
human behaviour affected the incidence of accidents was examined.As a
result of this and much subsequent work,it has become evident that human
behaviour is not just a factor that affects improved safety and economic
growth,but that it entirely controls such developments.In this third edition,
therefore, the final chapter of the second edition has been omitted, and
Chapters 1 and 2 have been entirely rewritten so as to provide a method
of analysing the records of accident and all-cause mortality rates and their
decrease with the passage of time, to show their relationship with levels
of economic development and economic growth rates, and to make
suggestions about the ways in which such processes may be linked.
The picture that emerges is a very strange one.It would seem that human
beings inhabit, simultaneously, two separate worlds, between which there
is no direct communication. Firstly, there is the conscious world: that of
politics, entertainment, art, science and technology.The second world, of
which we are but dimly aware, comprises the subconsciously-directed
activity of large populations, which results in economic growth and the
reduction of mortality rates due to physical and biological accidents.
Evidence for the existence of the second world lies in the relevant historical
records,such as those examined in the first two chapters of this book.These
indicate a remarkably well-ordered, self-regulated activity and, in the case
of falling accident rates, one which is self-initiated.There is a close link
between economic growth and the fall in accident rates,such that both may
be regarded as aspects of human development as a whole.
These concepts are difficult to understand and accept because they relate
to human activities that are subconsciously guided,whereas it is generally
ix