Energy Transition in Africa

202 Pages·2012·8.744 MB·English

by  Thokozani Simelane, Mohamed Abdel-Rahman

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Edited by
Thokozani Simelane and
Mohamed Abdel-Rahman
Energy Transition in Africa
First Published in 2011 by the
Africa Institute of South Africa
PO Box 630
Pretoria 0001
South Africa
ISBN: 978-0-7983-0294-4 
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Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
About the Editors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xii
About the Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Abbreviations and Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xv
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Mohamed Abdel-Rahman and Thokozani Simelane
An Overview of Renewable Energy Production in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Africa’s Role in Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xx
Investment Approach Required to Migrate to a New Energy Paradigm . . . . xxi
Contents of this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxii
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii
1 Energy revolution in Africa and its future potential in
supplying energy to the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Kamelia Youssef and Shingirirai Mutanga
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Evolution of Africa’s Energy Statistics from 1973 to 2008 (2009) . . . . . . . . . . 2
Status of Africa’s Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Advantages of Using Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
The Status of Africa’s Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
The Role of Africa in Supplying Energy to the World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Energy Transition in Africa iii
Contents
Renewable Energy Technologies as Drivers of Africa’s Energy Supply . . . . . 7
Hydropower in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Biomass Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
Geothermal Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Wind Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
Solar Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Nuclear Energy in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
2 Africa’s nuclear power potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Its rise, recession, opportunities and constraints
Mojalefa Murphy
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Basic Science and Technology of Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Uranium Enrichment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
The Uses of Nuclear Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Africa’s Potential to Exploit Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Nuclear Industrial Development in South Africa: 1950 to 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Ratcheted Up Nuclear Industrialisation and Weapons Development:
1970 to mid-1980s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Rapid Nuclear De-industrialisation: Mid-1980s to Date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Post-Apartheid Nuclear Vision Defi ciency Disorder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Sabotage of African Nuclear Power Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
3 State of energy infrastructure in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
How much investment is needed to
migrate to renewable energy?
Walid El-Khattam, Salma Hussein and Mohamed Abdel-Rahman
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Overview of Africa’s Sub-Regions and Power Pools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Africa’s Current Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Non-Renewable Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
iv Energy Transition in Africa
Contents
Overview of Africa’s Electricity Accessibility and Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . 71
Electricity Infrastructure in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Current Renewable Energy Applications in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Barriers to Renewable Energy Development in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Financing Renewable Energy in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4 Human capital requirements for sustainable renewable
energy production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101
Timothy Simalenga
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101
Overview of Existing Training Needs and Skills Development . . . . . . . . . . 102
Long-term Education and Training Strategy for Renewable Energy
Engineers and Technicians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Human Capital Development through Formal Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Analysing a Project for Renewable Energy Training and Development . . . . 107
Human Capital Development through Informal Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Building a Sustainable Human Capital through Informal Training . . . . . . . . 109
Informal/In-service Training and Human Capital Opportunities in the
Renewable Energy Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110
Human Resource Development for Research and Renewable Energy
Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
Conclusion and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120
5 Investment requirements for Africa to lead in renewable
energy production and distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Salma Hussein, Walid El-Khattam and Mohamed Abdel-Rahman
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Electricity Industry Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124
Cash Flow in the Electricity Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127
Types of Electricity Sector Organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Regional Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Energy Transition in Africa v
Contents
Nature of Electricity Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Bottlenecks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Prerequisites for Resource Mobilisation to the African
Continent’s Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131
Steps to Establish an Investment-Conducive Environment for
Large Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Small and Medium Enterprises in Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Financing Approaches in Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Egypt: A Case Study of Renewable Energy Projects Development
in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141
6 Africa’s technology options for renewable energy
production and distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Bamikole Amigun, Martin Kaggwa, Josephine Musango,
Shingirirai Mutanga, Thokozani Simelane and William Stafford
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Africa’s Renewable Energy Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
State of Renewable Energy Technologies in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Requirements for Successful Take-off of Renewable Energy Technologies
in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Conversion Technologies for Renewable Energy Resources
Available in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Industrial Ecology of Renewable Energy Technologies –
A System Dynamics Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
7 Conclusion and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173
Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173
vi Energy Transition in Africa
Foreword
Th e prevailing period of energy transition provides a myriad development
opportunities for Africa. To capitalise on the opportunities presented,
Africa needs to understand its strengths and capabilities of the role it is
going to play in a global economy driven by renewable energy sources.
Africa has the advantage of migrating to renewable energy sources, and
thus becoming a major supplier of renewable energy to the world. Unlike
most developed countries, Africa has a minimal investment locked into
fossil-fuel-based energy sources. It is naturally endowed with various
sources of renewable energy and thus has an opportunity to lead the fi eld
in the provision of renewable energy. But to achieve this Africa needs
to develop or acquire technologies that will be relevant and aff ordable,
design strategies that will guide the process of migrating to renewable
sources of energy, reduce high levels of illiteracy among the users of the
technologies to be deployed, and invest in the infrastructure that will be
required to migrate to renewable sources of energy.
Th is book discusses all these matters and is thus of interest to read-
ers in all African countries, and indeed further abroad. It also provides
an interesting account of how Africa has lost out on nuclear energy. Th is
raises a strong warning that Africa must not step aside when the rest
of the world is developing its capacity in search for alternative sources
of energy. While Africa’s inability to benefi t from its large deposits of
uranium can be attributed to the high cost of nuclear power, a closer
examination of the development of Africa’s nuclear capabilities reveals
considerable social and economic dynamics that relentlessly undermine
its scientifi c and technological advancement. At this crucial moment in
energy transition, I trust that Africa is not going to repeat the mistakes
of the past. I have found the contents of this book interesting in that
they highlight Africa’s strength in participating in renewable energy
developments, the scale of investment needed, human capital require-
ments and the technological options that are available to Africa.
I would like to thank the Africa Institute of South Africa for con-
tributing to the development of knowledge about and for Africa, and I
Energy Transition in Africa vii
Foreword
encourage it to continue to do so, especially using the innovative model
of working with African scholars across the continent and the diaspora
to make the vision of the twenty-fi rst century an African century. I hope
that academics, policy makers and the public will fi nd this publication a
useful reference in the course of their work or general reading interests.
Naledi Pandor
Minister of Science and Technology
South Africa
viii Energy Transition in Africa
Preface
Th e world’s energy consumption and demand is increasing exponen-
tially. In 2007, the world consumed an estimated 18 trillion kWh of
generated energy. By 2030, the demand for energy will have increased
to 31 trillion kWh, of which an estimated 20 trillion will be generated
from renewable sources. Of critical concern is that the world’s supply
of fossil fuels and its reserves are decreasing, and locating new reserves
has become diffi cult. Th us it is imperative to explore renewable sources
of energy. Th e need to migrate to renewable energy is further driven by
people’s desire and commitment to halt climate change and its eff ects.
Th is shift in energy sources pose both a challenge and opportunity
for Africa, as it will need substantial investment in infrastructure, tech-
nology and human capital to be able to catch up with the international
trends of generating and supplying energy from renewable sources.
Africa has the advantage that it is endowed with abundant sources of
renewable energy, which, if fully exploited, can place the continent at
the forefront of the world’s energy production and supply. An indication
of the interest in Africa, is that the Desertec Foundation intends to use
solar power generated in Africa to supply Europe with 15 per cent of its
energy needs through an investment of €400 billion from 2011 to 2031.
While this appears to hold hope for Africa, the reality is that the
continent still has a huge shortage of energy. Only 34 per cent of Africa’s
population have access to modern forms of energy, with large disparities
between countries, and between urban and rural areas within coun-
tries. Th e energy supplies will have to increase at least four- to sixfold by
2025 for the continent to meet its energy needs. Currently, 30 African
countries experience chronic blackouts. Th erefore power shortages are
the single most debilitating on Africa’s economic growth.
Th e most severe challenges facing Africa with regard to energy gen-
eration include inadequate development of the energy infrastructure,
high capital costs attached to energy projects, the lack of fi nance and
investment in energy projects, and lack of technical expertise. Solving
these problems will require effi cient planning, investment and effi cient
Energy Transition in Africa ix