Energy technology perspectives 2014: harnessing electricity's potential (International Energy Agency)

382 Pages·2014·10.641 MB·English

by  International Energy Agency

Energy Technology
Perspectives 2014
Harnessing Electricity’s Potential
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Energy Technology
Perspectives 2014
Harnessing Electricity’s Potential
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.
Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative
research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member
countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among
its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agency’s aims include the following objectives:
n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection
in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute
to climate change.
n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of
energy data.
n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and
dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international
organisations and other stakeholders.
IEA member countries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Secure Sustainable Together
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
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The European Commission
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3
TableofContents
Table of Contents
Introduction 6
Foreword 6
ExecutiveSummary 8
Acknowledgements 17
Part1 SettingtheScene 22
Chapter1 TheGlobalOutlook 25
Globalmodellingresults 29
Changesthatalterpreviousenergyprojections 31
Sectordevelopmentinthefutureenergysystem 35
Investmentneedsandfuelsavingsfromtransformingtheenergysystem 51
Policyactiontoleadthetransition 53
Chapter2 TrackingCleanEnergyProgress 59
TrackingProgress:HowandAgainstWhat? 60
RenewablePower 64
NuclearPower 70
NaturalGas-FiredPower 72
Coal-FiredPower 74
CarbonCaptureandStorage 76
Industry 78
ChemicalsandPetrochemicals 80
IronandSteel 82
Transport 84
ElectricandHybridElectricVehicles 86
Biofuels 88
BuildingsEnergyEfficiency 90
BuildingEnvelope 92
AppliancesandEquipment 94
Co-generationandDistrictHeatingandCooling 96
SmartGrids 98
Getting“Smart”aboutStayingonLine 100
TechnologyOverviewNotes 109
©OECD/IEA,2014.
4
TableofContents
Part2 HarnessingElectricity’sPotential 116
Chapter3 ElectrificationoftheEnergySystem 119
Theincreasinglyessentialandevolvingroleofelectricity 122
Implicationsforenvironment,securityandeconomy 124
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 133
Chapter4 SolarPower:PossiblytheDominantSourceby2050 137
Solartechnologiesintheelectricitysystem:Recenttrends 139
Futureroleofsolarintheglobalelectricitysystem 147
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 162
Chapter5 NaturalGasinLow-CarbonElectricitySystems 167
NaturalgasintheETP2014scenarios:Asummary 168
Enablinggas-firedgenerationtechnologiestodisplacecoal 179
Flexiblegas-firedgenerationtosupportVREgeneration 189
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 200
Chapter6 ElectrifyingTransport:HowCanE-MobilityReplaceOil? 207
Electrifyingtransportmodes:Technologies,timeframesandopportunities 210
TheLETMIX 224
TheETP20142DSand2DS-ETvariant 229
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 233
Chapter7 ElectricityStorage:Costs,ValueandCompetitiveness 239
Appealofstoringelectricity 240
Applicationsforelectricitystorage 246
Performanceandcostsofelectricitystoragetechnology 252
Energystorageforsystemintegration 267
Gridstoragerequirementsinthe2DS 270
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 272
Chapter8 AttractingFinanceforLow-CarbonGeneration 277
Attractingfinancingresources 279
Thetwoextremes:Regulatedutilitiesandcompetitivemarkets 288
Intermediatesolutionstopromotelow-carboninvestments 295
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 301
Chapter9 PowerGenerationinIndia 305
India’slow-carbongrowthstrategy 306
TheIndianpowersectortoday 307
Mid-termgoalsforthepowersector 317
Coal 318
Gas 324
Nuclear 326
Hydropower 329
Otherrenewableenergytechnologies 330
Recommendedactionsforthenearterm 336
©OECD/IEA,2014.
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TableofContents
Annexes 340
AnnexA AnalyticalApproach 341
AnnexB AbbreviationsandAcronyms 352
AnnexC Definitions,RegionalandCountryGroupingsandUnits 357
AnnexD ListsofFigures,TablesandBoxes 368
©OECD/IEA,2014.
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Introduction Foreword
Foreword
TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)EnergyTechnologyPerspectives(ETP)analysisoffersa
comprehensive,long-termviewofenergysystemtrendsandtechnologiesessentialtomeet
goalsforaffordable,secureandlow-carbonenergy.Thislong-termviewisregularlychallenged
bydevelopmentsthathavelastingandtransformativeimpacts,suchastheshalegasboomin
NorthAmerica,costreductionsinseveralrenewabletechnologiesandtheuncertaintyin
nuclearpowerprogress.Theseexamplesclearlyshowthattechnology,marketdevelopments
andexternaleventsinfluencetheevolutionofenergysystems.
Theseinteractionsdrawattentiontoatroublingfact.Inthefaceofrapidlygrowingdemand
andtheincreasinglyurgentthreatofclimatechange,wearecontinuingtorespondtothe
energysystemasitevolvesratherthanactivelymanagingitstransformationtowardstheaim
ofachievingaclean,secureandeconomicenergysupply.Aradicalchangeofcourseislong
overdue,andETPshowsthenecessityoftechnologytoobtainthesegoals.
Consideringthelinksbetweeneffectiveshort-andlong-termdevelopmentofenergysystems,the
IEAhastakenastrategicdecisiontotransitionETPtoanannualpublicationinwhicheachedition
sharpensitsfocustoallowa“deepdive”intoanalysisoftimelytopicsandtrends.TheETPonline
presencehasbeenexpandedtodeliverdownloadableanalysisupdates,datavisualisationsand
sectorspecificcommentary,maintainingitscomprehensiveanalysis,whileincreasingusability.
Wealsocontinuetomonitorthestatusofglobaltechnologyeffortstomeetlongtermtargets
through“TrackingCleanEnergyProgress”,akeychapterinETPandistheIEAfourth
submissiontotheCleanEnergyMinisterialonglobalcleanenergytechnologydevelopment
anddeployment.Wefindgrowingevidencethatapartialenergytransitionisunderway–and
thatemergingeconomieshavesteppedintothelead,achievingthegreatestgainsinthepast
year.Butitisclearthatsomeoftheencouragingtrendsobservedin2013areindireneedof
renewedsupport.
ThethemeofETP2014,HarnessingElectricity’sPotential,reflectsanopportunityarisingfrom
theconvergenceoftwotrends:rapidlyrisingglobalelectricitydemandandtheevidentneed
forincreasedsystemintegration.Electricityproductionuses40%ofglobalprimaryenergyand
producesanequalshareofenergy-basedcarbondioxideemissionstoday.However,
cost-effectiveandpracticalsolutionsexistthatcanincreaseefficiencyandreduceelectricity
demandaswellascarbonemissionsbetweennowand2050.Fourkeypointsemergeinthis
year’sanalysis:
■ Theunrelentingriseincoalusewithoutdeploymentofcarboncaptureandstorageis
fundamentallyincompatiblewithclimatechangeobjectives.
■ Naturalgascan,intheshortterm,playadualroleofreplacingcoalandsupportingintegration
ofvariablerenewableenergy(VRE),inthemediumtolongerterm,gasmustbeseenforwhatit
is–atransitionalfuel,notalow-carbonsolution.
■ DeploymentofVREtechnologyisgrowing,andinsomecasesbecomingcompetitive;
experiencenowshowsthatbalancingVREsupplyandpatternsofenergydemandmust–and
can–beactivelymanaged.
■ Electricitystoragecanplaymultiplerolesinanintegratedsystem,ascanothertechnologies
withwhichitmustcompete.Contrarytomanyothervoices,ETPanalysisfindsthatelectricity
storagealoneisnotanecessarygame-changerforthefutureenergysystem.
©OECD/IEA,2014.
7
Introduction Foreword
Anewfeatureofeacheditionwillbeacountrycasestudyofparticularrelevancetothetheme,
withtheinauguralexamplebeingIndia’stremendouschallengeofexpandingbothcapacity
andgenerationofelectricitytomeetadoublingofdemandinthenextdecade.Alow-carbon,
moreintegratedfuturewillrequirestrongpolicyactiontomanagetheuseofitssubstantial
coalresourcesandtoaddresstheadministrativehurdlesthatimpedebothinnovationand
investment.
Thetimescaleforthispublicationis40years.AstheIEAentersits40thyear,energy
challengesareasdauntingastheywerein1974.Whileenergysecurityisstillaconcern,
shiftingtheworldtoasustainableenergypathhasbecomeanadditionalurgentpriority.Our
effortsduringthelastfourdecadeshavenotaddressedthischallenge.Thegreaterfocusof
ETPandtheassociatedseriesofpublicationsfurthertheIEA’sunderlyingaimofprovidingtruly
transformative“callstoaction”sothatgovernmentscantakethestepsnecessarytomoveto
acleanerpath.Butwemuststartnow;wecannotaffordtowaitanother40years.
ThispublicationisproducedundermyauthorityasExecutiveDirectoroftheIEA.
MariavanderHoeven
ExecutiveDirector
InternationalEnergyAgency
©OECD/IEA,2014.
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Introduction ExecutiveSummary
Executive Summary
EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014(ETP2014)chartsacoursebywhich
policyandtechnologytogetherbecomedrivingforces–ratherthan
reactionarytools–intransformingtheenergysectoroverthenext40 years.
Recenttechnologydevelopments,marketsandenergy-relatedeventshave
assertedtheircapacitytoinfluenceglobalenergysystems.Theyhavealso
reinforcedthecentralroleofpolicyintheincreasinglyurgentneedtomeet
growingenergydemandwhileaddressingrelatedconcernsforenergy
security,costsandenergy-relatedenvironmentalimpacts.Radicalactionis
neededtoactivelytransformenergysupplyandenduse.
Inadditiontoanalysingtheglobaloutlookto2050underdifferentscenarios,acrosstheentire
energysystemformorethan500technologyoptions,ETP2014explorespathwaystoa
sustainableenergyfutureinwhichpolicysupportandtechnologychoicesaredrivenby
economics,energysecurityandenvironmentalfactors.Startingfromthepremisethat
electricitywillbeanincreasinglyimportantvectorinenergysystemsofthefuture,ETP2014
takesadeepdiveintoactionsneededtosupportdeploymentofsustainableoptionsforpower
generation,distributionandend-useconsumption.
ETP2014analysesthreepossibleenergyfuturesto2050:
■ 6oCScenario(6DS),wheretheworldisnowheadingwithpotentiallydevastatingresults
■ 4oCScenario(4DS)reflectsstatedintentionsbycountriestocutemissionsandboostenergy
efficiency
■ 2oCScenario(2DS)offersavisionofasustainableenergysystemofreducedgreenhousegas
andcarbondioxide(CO )emissions.
2
StatusandrecenttrendsarehighlightedinTrackingCleanEnergyProgress,providinga
snapshotofadvancesorlackofprogressinmajorlow-carbonenergytechnologies.
Collectively,ETP2014laysoutthewiderangeofnecessaryandachievablestepsthatcanbe
takeninthenearandmediumtermstosetthestageforlong-termenergypolicyobjectives,
clearlyidentifyingtherolesofenergysectorplayers,policymakersandindustry.
©OECD/IEA,2014.
9
Introduction ExecutiveSummary
Global energy trends show advances in
decoupling demand from economic growth,
but also reveal bottlenecks and uncertainties
ETP2014’s2DSconfirmsthatglobalpopulationandeconomicgrowthcanbe
decoupledfromenergydemand,evenforoil.Extendingrecenttrendsto2050inthe6DS,
globalenergydemandgrowsby70%andemissionsgrowbymorethan60%against2011
levels.Underthesameprojectionsforpopulationandgrossdomesticproduct,radicalactionin
the2DSdramaticallyimprovesenergyefficiencytolimitincreasesindemandbyjustover25%
whileemissionsarecutbymorethan50%.Oneofthemostnotabledifferencesbetweenthe
twoscenariosisthis:inthe6DS,oilremainsthemostimportantprimaryenergycarrierwith
demandincreasingby45%,whilethepolicyandtechnologychoicesmadeunderthe2DS
delivera30%reductioninoildemand.
Solar,hydropowerandonshorewindarepresentlyforgingahead,whiledevelopment
ismixedforothercleanenergysupply.Policycertaintyremainsvitaltoapositive
investmentoutlookforcleanenergytechnologies.Costperunitofenergygeneratedby
onshorewindandsolarphotovoltaic(PV)continuedtofallin2013,albeitataslowerratethan
inpreviousyears.Theircost-competitivenessisimproving,insomecountries,partlydueto
innovativemarketdesign.Despitetheirflexibility,concentratingsolarpowerplantsarebeing
deployedmuchmoreslowly,withaslowerdeclineincosts.Globalnuclearcapacityis
stagnatingatthistimeasamodestcapacityincreasefromnewreactorscomingonlinehas
beenoffsetbytheretirementofageingornon-profitableplantsinmembercountriesofthe
OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD).Lookingatamidpointto
20502DStargets,installedglobalnuclearcapacityin2025willlikelybe5%to24%below
neededlevels,demonstratingsignificantuncertainty.
Emergingeconomieshavesteppeduptheirambitionsandbecomeleadersin
deployinglow-carbonenergytechnologies.Emergingmarketsmorethancompensated
forslowingormorevolatilerenewablepowergrowthinEuropeandtheUnitedStates,with
AsiadeployingmorethanhalfofglobalsolarPVadditionsin2013.China’sboldmeasuresto
supportcleantransportasameansofimprovingurbanairqualityhasledtosome150million
electric2-wheelersontheroadandgreaterdeploymentofelectricbuses.Globally,salesof
hybridelectricvehiclesandelectricvehicles(EVs)setnewrecordsin2013,butstillfallshortof
the2DStrajectory.
Continuedincreaseincoalusecounteractsemissionsreductionfromrecentprogress
inthedeploymentofrenewables,underliningtheneedtoimprovecoalplantefficiency
andscaleupcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).Growthincoal-firedgenerationsince
2010hasbeengreaterthanthatofallnon-fossilsourcescombined,continuinga20-year
trend;60%ofnewcoalcapacitybuiltinthepastdecadewassubcritical,theleastefficient
classofcommerciallyavailablecoal-firedgenerationtechnologies.ThefutureofCCSis
uncertain;atpresent,thetechnologyisadvancingslowly,duetohighcostsandlackofpolitical
andfinancialcommitment.Near-termprogressinCCSresearch,developmentand
demonstrationisneededtoensurelong-termandcost-competitivedeploymenttowards
meetingclimategoals.
Fossilfuelusedecreasesby2050inthe2DS,butitsshareofprimaryenergysupply
remainsabove40%,reflectingitsparticularlyimportantroleforuseinindustry,
transportandelectricitygeneration.Theabilityofthedifferentindustrialsub-sectorsto
incorporaterenewableenergysourcesintotheirprocessesvariesgreatlydependingonthe
natureofthefinalproductanddiverseoperationallimitations.CCSisneededtocaptureboth
©OECD/IEA,2014.