Energy technology perspectives.

485 Pages·4.167 MB·English

by  OECD

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
E NERGY 2
o
TECHNOLOGY
o
PERSPECTIVES 6
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
Scenarios &
Warning
Please note that this
Strategies
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restrictions that limit
its use and distribution.
to 2050
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
E NERGY 2
o
TECHNOLOGY
o
PERSPECTIVES 6
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous body which was established in
November 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) to implement an international energy programme.
It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-six of the
OECD’s thirty member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are:
• To maintain and improve systems for coping with oil supply disruptions.
• To promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative relations with
non-member countries, industry and international organisations.
• To operate a permanent information system on the international oil market.
• To improve the world’s energy supply and demand structure by developing alternative
energy sources and increasing the efficiency of energy use.
• To assist in the integration of environmental and energy policies.
The IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Republic of
Korea, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The European Commission
takes part in the work of the IEA.
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of thirty democracies work together to
address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also
at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments
and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of
an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare
policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-
ordinate domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea,
Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD.
© OECD/IEA, 2006
No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made
without written permission. Applications should be sent to:
International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Publications Service,
9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France.
3
FOREWORD
At their Gleneagles Summit in July 2005, leaders of the G8 addressed the serious
and long-term challenges of secure and clean energy, climate change, and
sustainable development. Agreeing to act with resolve and urgency, they adopted a
Plan of Action and launched a dialogue with other significant energy consumers. The
G8 leaders asked the IEA to play a major role in delivering the Plan of Action and
to be a partner in the dialogue. A similar sense of urgency was shown by Energy
Ministers of the IEA in their meeting two months earlier, when they asked the IEA to
help bridge the gap between what is happening and what needs to be done.
The G8 leaders and Energy Ministers asked the IEA to advise on alternative energy
scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future.
Specifically, the Energy Ministers have requested the IEA to focus on the opportunities
that efficient and emerging energy technologies can deliver. Energy Technology
Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050 is a specific response to these
requests.
The book provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the key energy
technologies of the next 50 years. Our scenario analysis shows that global CO
2
emissions could be returned to current levels by 2050 and that the growth of oil
demand could be cut in half. Energy efficiency is of paramount importance in
archiving these results. The analysis also shows that decarbonising power generation
through CO capture and storage, renewables, and, in those countries where it is
2
accepted, nuclear, will be essential.
The analysis demonstrates that a more sustainable energy future is within our reach.
Many of the technologies needed are already available or close to
commercialisation. But it will require substantial effort and investment by both the
public and private sectors for them to be adopted by the market. Pathways need to
be opened up to enable these technologies to deliver their full potential. Urgent
action is needed to stimulate R&D, to demonstrate and deploy promising
technologies, and to provide clear and predictable incentives for low carbon options
and diverse energy sources. We also need closer energy technology collaboration
between developed and developing countries.
The IEA is breaking new ground with this book, which is expected to become a
regular biennial publication of the IEA. It is based on our best analysis and we are
grateful for the many comments and contributions provided by the IEAs extensive
energy technology collaboration network and other distinguished experts.
Nevertheless, we recognise that looking far into the energy future is not as clear as
gazing into a crystal ball; we may still have a lot to learn. We hope that this book
will provide a focus for discussion and debate in energy circles, among both policy
makers and investors, as well as in the G8 dialogue.
This work is published under my authority as Executive Director of the IEA and does
not necessarily reflect the views of the IEA member countries.
Claude Mandil
Executive Director

5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This publication was prepared by the International Energy Agency’s Office of Energy
Technology and R&D (ETO). Neil Hirst, Director of the ETO, provided invaluable
leadership and inspiration throughout the project. Robert Dixon, Head of the Energy
Technology Policy Division offered important guidance and input.
Fridtjof Unander was the leader of the project and had overall responsibility for the
design and development of the study. The other main authors were Dolf Gielen,
Michael Taylor, Pierpaolo Cazzola, Teresa Malyshev and Rod Janssen. Other
important contributors include Debra Justus, Marek Sturc, Jeppe Bjerg, Cecilia Tam,
Paul Waide and Jens Laustsen. Gillian Balitrand, Alison Sadin, Diana Lewis,
Charlotte Forbes and Sandra Coleman helped to prepare the manuscript. The
editors were Scott Sullivan and Stephen Sanford.
Many other IEA colleagues have provided important contributions, particularly,
Maria Argiri, Richard Baron, Fatih Birol, Laura Cozzi, Nobuyuki Hara,
Olivier Lavagne d’Ortigue, Alan Meier, Isabel Murray, Francois Nguyen, Yo Osumi,
Antonio Pflüger, Céderic Philibert, Nicola Pochettino, Jacek Podkanski,
Carrie Pottinger, Julia Reinaud, Brian Ricketts, Giorgio Simbolotti, Ralph Sims,
Jonathan Sinton, Ulrik Stridbaek, Piotr Tulej and Ming Yang. Production assistance
was provided by the IEA Communication and Information Office: Rebecca
Gaghen, Muriel Custodio, Corinne Hayworth, Loretta Ravera and Bertrand Sadin
added significantly to the material presented.
A number of consultants have contributed to different parts of the publication:
Markus Blesl (IER, Germany), Matthew Brown (independent, United States/France),
David Irving (Irving Energy, United Kingdom), Niclas Mattsson (Chalmers University
of Technology, Sweden), Uwe Remme (IER, Germany), Stephane de la Rue du Can
(Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States), Clas-Otto Wene (Wenergy,
Sweden) and Ernst Worrell (Ecofys, the Netherlands).
Special thanks go to Hans Jørgen Koch, Danish Energy Authority, and Carmen
Difiglio, United States Department of Energy, for their encouragement, support and
input. Thanks also to Lars Guldbrand, Swedish Ministry of Sustainable Development
and the Government of Sweden for essential support for this publication. This study
draws on the IEAs Energy Technology Perspectives project, which has been supported
by many IEA governments over the years, including, Australia, Canada, Germany,
Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.
A review group provided very valuable feedback and input to the analysis
presented in this book. The group included: Isabel Cabrita (INETI, Portugal),
Laurent Corbier (World Business Council for Sustainable Development),
David Irving (Irving Energy, United Kingdom), Olav Kårstad (Statoil, Norway),
Takehiko Matsuo (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan), Abdulaziz Al-Turki (OAPEC,
Kuwait), GianCarlo Tosato (ENEA, Italy), Phillip Tseng (United States Energy
Information Agency), Roberto Vigotti (ENEL, Italy) and Yuichiro Yamaguchi (Ministry
of Economy, Trade and Industry; Japan).
6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Other reviewers include Lew Fulton (UNEP), George Eads (CRA International), Christian
Besson (Schlumberger), Frank Pool (Asian Development Bank), Martin Patel (Utrecht
University, the Netherlands), Gary Stuggins (World Bank), Conrad Brunner (A+B
International, Switzerland), Anne Arquit Niederberger (A+B International, Switzerland),
Chris Bayliss (International Aluminium Institute), Aimee McKane (Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory, United States) and Evelyne Bertel, Stan Gordelier, Thierry Dujardin
and Pal Kovacs, all from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.
The global energy technology model used for this study has been developed in
close collaboration with the IEA Implementing Agreement ETSAP, in particular with
GianCarlo Tosato, Gary Goldstein and Ken Noble.
The technology analysis in this book draws extensively upon the IEAs unique
international network for collaboration on energy technology. Numerous experts
from IEAs Committee on Energy Research and Technology (CERT), its Working
Parties and from many of its 40 Implementing Agreements (IA) have contributed with
data and other input. Some of these experts are listed below:
Egil Öfverholm,
Vice Chair for Buildings, End-Use Working Party
Hamid Mohamed,
Vice Chair for Industry, End-Use Working Party
Peter Finckh,
Vice Chair for Transport, End-Use Working Party
Roberto Vigotti,
Chair, Renewable Energy Working Party
Heather Haydock,
Advanced Fuel Cells IA
Jaap Koppejan,
Bioenergy IA
Sjaak van Loo,
Bioenergy IA
Kyriakos Maniatis,
Bioenergy IA
Robin Wiltshire,
District Heating and Cooling IA
Hans Nilsson,
Demand-Side Management IA
Morad Atif,
Energy Conservation in Buildings and Community Systems Programme IA
Malcolm Orme,
Energy Conservation in Buildings and Community Systems Programme IA
7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Volkmar Lottner,
Energy Conservation through Energy Storage IA
Mike Mongillo,
Geothermal IA
Ladislaus Rybach,
Geothermal IA
Martijn van Walwijk,
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technologies and Programmes IA
Roger Hitchin,
Heat Pumping Technologies IA
Jean-Paul Rigg,
Hydropower IA
Riccardo Ambrosini,
IEA Clean Coal Centre
Colin Henderson,
IEA Clean Coal Centre
John Topper,
IEA Clean Coal Centre
John Davison,
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme IA
Thore Berntsson,
Industrial Energy-Related Technology Systems IA
Gouri Bhuyan,
Ocean Energy Systems IA
Komninos Diamantaras,
Ocean Energy Systems IA
Gary Shanahan,
Ocean Energy Systems IA
Stefan Nowak,
Photovoltaic Power Systems IA
Nobert Gorissen,
Renewable Energy Technology Deployment IA
Daniel Argyropoulos,
Renewable Energy Technology Deployment IA
Thomas Mancini,
SolarPACES IA
Ana Estanqueiro,
Wind Energy Systems IA
PART 1
TECHNOLOGY AND
THE GLOBAL ENERGY
ECONOMY TO 2050
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART 2
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
STATUS AND OUTLOOK