Energy Systems Engineering Evaluation and Implementation

554 Pages·2008·5.05 MB·English

by  Francis Vanek

Energy Systems
Engineering
Evaluation and Implementation
Francis M. Vanek
Louis D. Albright
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DOI: 10.1036/0071495932
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To my wife, Catherine Johnson, and to my parents,
Jaroslav and Wilda Vanek.
—Francis M. Vanek
To my wife and partner in life, Marilyn Albright.
—Louis D. Albright
About the Authors
Francis M. Vanek, Ph.D., is a Lecturer and Research
Assistant in the Departments of Mechanical & Aero-
space Engineering and Civil & Environmental Engi-
neering and the Systems Engineering Program at
Cornell University, where he specializes in the areas of
energy efficiency, alternative energy, and energy for
trans portation. He is also a consultant with Taitem
Engineering of Ithaca, NY.
Louis D. Albright, Ph.D., is Professor of Biological and
Environmental Engineering and Stephen H. Weiss
Presidential Fellow at Cornell University. A Fellow of
the American Society of Agricultural and Biological
Engineers (ASABE), he is the author of Environmental
Control for Animals and Plants.
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Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1-2-1 Historic Growth in Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1-3 Relationship between Energy, Population, and Wealth . . . . . . . 4
1-3-1 Correlation between Energy Use and Wealth . . . . . 5
1-3-2 Human Development Index: An Alternative Means
of Evaluating Prosperity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1-4 Pressures Facing World due to Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . 8
1-4-1 Industrial versus Emerging Countries . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1-4-2 Pressure on CO Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2
1-4-3 Observations about Energy Use and
CO Emissions Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2
1-4-4 Discussion: Contrasting Mainstream and Deep
Ecologic Perspectives on Energy Requirements . . . 15
1-5 Units of Measure Used in Energy Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1-5-1 Metric (SI) Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1-5-2 U.S. Standard Customary Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1-5-3 Units Related to Oil Production and
Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1-6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2 Systems Tools for Energy Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2-2-1 Conserving Existing Energy Resources versus
Shifting to Alternative Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2-2-2 The Concept of Sustainable Development . . . . . . . 25
2-3 Fundamentals of the Systems Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2-3-1 Initial Defi nitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2-3-2 Steps in the Application of the Systems
Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2-3-3 Stories, Scenarios, and Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
v
vi Contents
2-4 Other Systems Tools Applied to Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2-4-1 Systems Dynamics Models: Exponential Growth,
Saturation, and Causal Loops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2-5 Other Tools for Energy Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2-5-1 Kaya Equation: Factors that Contribute
to Overall CO Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2
2-5-2 Life-Cycle Analysis and Energy Return
on Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
2-5-3 Multi-Criteria Analysis of Energy Systems
Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2-5-4 Choosing among Alternative Solutions
Using Optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2-5-5 Understanding Contributing Factors to Time-Series
Energy Trends Using Divisia Analysis . . . . . . . . . . 53
2-6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3 Economic Tools for Energy Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3-2-1 The Time Value of Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3-3 Economic Analysis of Energy Projects and Systems . . . . . . . . . 63
3-3-1 Defi nition of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3-3-2 Evaluation without Discounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3-3-3 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3-3-4 Levelized Cost of Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3-4 Direct versus External Costs and Benefi ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3-5 Intervention in Energy Investments to Achieve
Social Aims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
3-5-1 Methods of Intervention in Energy
Technology Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3-5-2 Critiques of Intervention in Energy Investments . . 73
3-6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
4 Climate Change and Climate Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4-2-1 Relationship between the Greenhouse Effect
and Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4-2-2 Carbon Cycle and Solar Radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4-2-3 Quantitative Imbalance in CO Flows into
2
and out of the Atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Contents vii
4-2-4 Consensus on the Human Link to Climate
Change: Taking the Next Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4-2-5 Early Indications of Change and Remaining
Areas of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
4-3 Modeling Climate and Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
4-3-1 Relationship between Wavelength, Energy
Flux, and Absorption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
4-3-2 A Model of the Earth-Atmosphere System . . . . . . . 91
4-3-3 General Circulation Models (GCMs)
of Global Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
4-4 Climate in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4-4-1 Positive and Negative Feedback
from Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4-4-2 Scenarios for Future Rates of CO Emissions,
2
CO Stabilization Values, and Average Global
2
Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4-4-3 Current Efforts to Counteract Climate Change . . . 102
4-5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5 Fossil Fuel Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5-2-1 Characteristics of Fossil Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
5-2-2 Current Rates of Consumption and Total Resource
Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
5-2-3 CO Emissions Comparison and a “Decarbonization”
2
Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5-3 Decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels and a Possible
Transition to Nonconventional Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
5-3-1 Hubbert Curve Applied to Resource Lifetime . . . . 114
5-3-2 Potential Role for Nonconventional Fossil
Resources as Substitutes for Oil and Gas . . . . . . . . 118
5-3-3 Discussion: The Past and Future of Fossil Fuels . . . 120
5-4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
6 Stationary Combustion Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
6-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
6-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
6-2-1 A Systems Approach to Combustion Technology . 127
6-3 Fundamentals of Combustion Cycle Calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
6-3-1 Rankine Vapor Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
6-3-2 Brayton Gas Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
viii Contents
6-4 Advanced Combustion Cycles for Maximum Effi ciency . . . . . 137
6-4-1 Supercritical Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
6-4-2 Combined Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
6-4-3 Cogeneration and Combined Heat and Power . . . 142
6-5 Economic Analysis of Investments in High-Effi ciency
Combustion Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
6-5-1 Calculation of Levelized Cost of Electricity
Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6-5-2 Economics of Small-Scale Cogeneration Systems:
A Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
6-6 Incorporating Environmental Considerations
into Combustion Project Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
6-7 Fossil Fuel Combustion in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
6-8 Systems Issues in Combustion in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
6-9 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
7 Carbon Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7-3 Indirect Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
7-3-1 The Photosynthesis Reaction: The Core
Process of Indirect Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
7-3-2 Indirect Sequestration in Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
7-3-3 Future Prospects for Indirect Sequestration . . . . . . 171
7-4 Geological Storage of CO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
2
7-4-1 Removing CO from Waste Stream . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
2
7-4-2 Options for Direct Sequestration in Geologically
Stable Reservoirs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
7-4-3 Prospects for Geological Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . 179
7-5 Sequestration through Conversion of CO into Inert
2
Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
7-6 Direct Removal of CO from Atmosphere
2
for Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
7-7 Overall Comparison of Sequestration Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
7-8 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
8 Nuclear Energy Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
8-1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
8-2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
8-2-1 Brief History of Nuclear Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
8-2-2 Current Status of Nuclear Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192