Energy Security in the Era of Climate Change: The Asia-Pacific Experience PDF
Preview Energy Security in the Era of Climate Change: The Asia-Pacific Experience
Energy,ClimateandtheEnvironmentSeries SeriesEditor:DavidElliott,EmeritusProfessorofTechnology,OpenUniversity,UK Titlesinclude: LucaAnceschiandJonathanSymons(editors) ENERGYSECURITYINTHEERAOFCLIMATECHANGE TheAsia-PacificExperience MehmetEfeBiresselioglu EUROPEANENERGYSECURITY Turkey’sFutureRoleandImpact DavidElliott(editor) NUCLEARORNOT? DoesNuclearPowerHaveaPlaceinaSustainableFuture? DavidElliott(editor) SUSTAINABLEENERGY OpportunitiesandLimitations HoraceHerringandSteveSorrell(editors) ENERGYEFFICIENCYANDSUSTAINABLECONSUMPTION TheReboundEffect MattiKojoandTapioLitmanen(editors) THERENEWALOFNUCLEARPOWERINFINLAND AntonioMarquina(editor) GLOBALWARMINGANDCLIMATECHANGE ProspectsandPoliciesinAsiaandEurope CatherineMitchell THEPOLITICALECONOMYOFSUSTAINABLEENERGY IvanScraseandGordonMacKerron(editors) ENERGYFORTHEFUTURE ANewAgenda GillSeyfang SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION, COMMUNITY ACTION AND THE NEW ECO- NOMICS SeedsofChange JosephSzarka WINDPOWERINEUROPE Politics,BusinessandSociety DavidToke ECOLOGICALMODERNISATIONANDRENEWABLEENERGY XuYi-chong(editor) NUCLEARENERGYDEVELOPMENTINASIA ProblemsandProspects XuYi-chong THEPOLITICSOFNUCLEARENERGYINCHINA Energy,ClimateandtheEnvironment Energy,ClimateandtheEnvironment SeriesStandingOrderISBN978-0–230–00800–7(hb)978–0–230–22150–5(pb) (outsideNorthAmericaonly) Youcanreceivefuturetitlesinthisseriesastheyarepublishedbyplacingastanding order.Pleasecontactyourbookselleror,incaseofdifficulty,writetousattheaddress belowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesandtheISBNquotedabove. CustomerServicesDepartment,MacmillanDistributionLtd,Houndmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS,England Energy Security in the Era of Climate Change The Asia-Pacific Experience Editedby Luca Anceschi LecturerinInternationalRelations,LaTrobeUniversity,Australia Jonathan Symons AssistantProfessor,DepartmentofPoliticalScience,LingnanUniversity,HongKong Selectionandeditorialmatter©LucaAnceschiandJonathanSymons2012 Individualchapters©contributors2012 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-27987-2 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6-10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorshaveassertedtheirrightstobeidentified astheauthorsofthisworkinaccordancewiththeCopyright, DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2012by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN 978-1-349-32711-9 ISBN 978-0-230-35536-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230355361 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 Contents ListofTables vii ListofFigures viii SeriesPreface ix Acknowledgements xii NotesonContributors xiii ListofAbbreviations xv Introduction:ChallengestoEnergySecurityintheEraofClimate Change 1 JonathanSymons Part I ConceptualisingEnergySecurityintheEraof ClimateChange 1 EnergySecurityandClimateSecurityunderConditionsofthe Anthropocene 13 MaximilianMayerandPeerSchouten 2 UnmaskingtheInvisibleGiant:EnergyEfficiencyinthe PoliticsofClimateandEnergy 36 MarkLister 3 NationalEnergySecurityinaWorldWhereUseofFossil FuelsIsConstrained 54 HughSaddler 4 CanEnergySecurityandEffectiveClimateChangePoliciesBe Compatible? 72 MarkDiesendorf Part II ClimateChangeandEnergyPolicyFormulation inAsia-Pacific 5 EnergyandEnvironmentalChallengesinChina 91 XuYi-chong v vi Contents 6 EnergySecurityandClimateChangeChallenges:India’s DilemmaandPolicyResponses 111 TulsiC.Bisht 7 ConflictingPolicies:EnergySecurityandClimateChange PoliciesinJapan 126 AkihiroSawa 8 Russia’sEnergySecurityandEmissionsTrends:Synergiesand Contradictions 143 AnnaKorppooandThomasSpencer 9 EnergySecurityinIndonesia 161 BudyP.Resosudarmo,ArianaAlisjahbana&DityaAgung Nurdianto 10 EnergyGovernanceandClimateChange:CentralAsia’s UneasyNexus 180 LucaAnceschi 11 MoreFossilFuelsandLessCarbonEmissions:Australia’sPolicy Paradox 198 LeighGlover Part III MultilateralEnergyGovernanceintheEraof ClimateChange 12 EnergySecurityandClimateChange–TensionsandSynergies 217 PeterChristoff 13 RethinkingEnergySecurityinaTimeofTransition 240 JimFalk 14 EnergyGovernanceintheEraofClimateChange 255 JosephA.Camilleri 15 InterconnectionsbetweenClimateandEnergyGovernance 275 JonathanSymons Index 292 List of Tables 4.1 Comparisonofdifferentelectricityscenariosforachieving bothclimatesecurityandenergysecurity 81 5.1 China’senergyintensityvis-à-visinternationalbestpractice inspecificindustries 96 5.2 Growthofkeyenergy-intensiveproducts 103 7.1 Japan:Long-termenergysupplyanddemandoutlook (millionkl,crudeoilequivalent) 136 9.1 Indonesia:Mainmacroeconomicindicators 165 9.2 Indonesia:Primaryenergyconsumption 171 9.3 Indonesia:Emissionsreductionplan 175 10.1 CentralAsianRepublics:TotalGHGemissions(1990–2005, TgCO e) 187 2 10.2 CentralAsianRepublics:TotalCO emissions(2008) 190 2 12.1 Majorgreenhousegasemittingstatesandtheirenergy characteristics 221 12.2 Majorgreenhousegasemittingstates,theirenergy characteristicsandemissionsreductionefforts 235 vii List of Figures 2.1 IPCCFourthAssessmentReportWorkingGroupIIIestimates ofabatementpotentialbysector 38 2.2 Projectedenergysectorabatementcontributionstoa450 ppmgreenhousescenarioby2030 39 2.3 ClimateWorksAustraliaassessmentoflowestcostabatement opportunitiesforAustralia 42 2.4 Australianenergyflows(2006–2007) 45 8.1 Gazprom’sproductionto2030 145 8.2 RussianFederation:ScenariosofCO emissionsto2020for 2 differentefficiencyandfuelmixcases 152 8.3 RussianFederation:Totalprimaryenergysupply 154 9.1 Indonesia:Finalenergyconsumptionpercapita 166 9.2 Indonesia:Shareoftotalfinalenergyconsumptionbysector (2008) 167 9.3 EnergyintensityforselectedSoutheastAsiancountriesand EU-15 167 9.4 Indonesia:Crudeoilproduction,exportandimport 168 9.5 Indonesia:Primaryenergysupply 169 9.6 Crudeoil:Averageworldprice(1999–2010) 171 9.7 Indonesia:Projectionof2020GHGemissionsunderBAU andemissionsreductionscenarios 174 13.1 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)impacts ofcarbondioxideemissionscontinuelongafteremissions cessation 244 13.2 Selectedcountries:GDPpercapita/annualpercapitaenergy consumption 247 14.1 Energyconsumptionbysource(1635–2000,quadrillionBtu) 256 14.2 Worldprimaryenergyproductionbysource(2007) 257 14.3 Changingtemperatures,sealevelsandiceandNorthern Hemispheresnowcover 258 14.4 Chronologyofthenegotiatingprocess 260 14.5 Energy-relatedCO emissionsbysourceinthe550and450 2 PolicyScenariosrelativetotheReferenceScenario 264 15.1 RisesinatmosphericconcentrationsofCO –measurements 2 fromManuaLoaObservatory 285 viii Series Preface Concerns about the potentialenvironmental,social and economic impacts of climate change have led to a major international debate over what could and should be done to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, which are claimed to be the main cause. There is still a scientific debate over the likely scale of climate change, and the complex interactions between humanactivitiesandclimatesystems,but,inthewordsofnolessthanthe former Governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, ‘I say the debate is over.Weknowthescience,weseethethreat,andthetimeforactionisnow.’ Whatever we now do, there will have to be a lot of social and economic adaptation to climate change – preparing for increased flooding and other climate-related problems. However, the more fundamental response is to try to reduce or avoid the human activities that are seen as causing cli- matechange.Thatmeans,primarily,tryingtoreduceoreliminateemission of greenhouse gasses from the combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles and power stations. Given that around 80% of the energy used in the world at present comes from these sources, this will be a major technological, economic and political undertaking. It will involve reducing demand for energy(vialifestylechoicechanges),producingandusingwhateverenergy westillneedmoreefficiently(acquiringmorefromless),andsupplyingthe reducedamountofenergyfromnon-fossilsources(basicallyswitchingover torenewablesand/ornuclearpower). Eachoftheseoptionsopensuparangeofsocial,economicandenviron- mental issues. Industrial society and modern consumer cultures have been basedontheever-expandinguseoffossilfuels,sothechangesrequiredwill inevitablybechallenging.Perhapsequallyinevitablearedisagreementsand conflictsoverthemeritsanddemeritsofthevariousoptionsandinrelation to strategies and policies for pursuing them. These conflicts and associated debatessometimesconcerntechnicalissues,butthereareusuallyalsounder- lyingpoliticalandideologicalcommitmentsandagendaswhichshape,orat leastcolour,theostensiblytechnicaldebates.Inparticular,attimes,techni- calassertionscanbeusedtobuttressspecificpolicyframeworksinwaysthat subsequentlyprovetobeflawed. The aim of this series is to provide texts that lay out the technical, envi- ronmental and political issues relating to the various proposed policies for responding to climate change. The focus is not primarily on the science of climate change, or on the technological detail, although there will be accountsofthestateoftheart,toaidassessmentoftheviabilityofthevar- ious options. However, the main focus is the policy conflicts over which strategy to pursue. The series adopts a critical approach and attempts to ix
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