Energy Policy Analysis This page intentionally left blank Energy Policy Analysis A Conceptual Framework Michael S. Hamilton RO Routledge U TLED Taylor & Francis Group G E LONDON AND NEW YORK —For Carol— First published 2013 by M.E. Sharpe Published 2015 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa busin ess Copyright©2013 T aylor & Francis. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher s. Notices No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwi se, or from any use of operation of any methods, products, instructions or ide as contained in the material herein . Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience a nd knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they shou ld be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibilit y. Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, an d are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hamilton, Michael S. Energy policy analysis : a conceptual framework / by Michael S. Hamilton. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-7656-2381-2 (hardcover : alk. paper)—ISBN 978-0-7656-2382-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Energy policy—United States. 2. Power resources—United States. 3. Renewable energy sources—United States. I. Title. HD9502.U52H35 2012 333.790973—dc23 2012014910 ISBN 13:9780765623829 (pbk) ISBN 13:9780765623812 (hbk) Contents Preface ix 1. A Framework for Analysis of Energy Choices 3 Supply Expansion 3 Demand Suppression 5 Cost Analysis 6 Analytical Framework 11 Previous Energy Policy Studies 11 References 13 2. Coal 16 Coal Exploration 16 Underground Mining 19 Surface Mining 21 Coal Seam Fires 27 Processing Coal 27 Coal Transportation 28 Coal Storage 29 Coal Combustion 30 Regulatory Controls 31 Costs of Coal Utilization 34 Summary of Costs 38 References 38 3. Nuclear 40 Uranium Exploration 40 Underground Uranium Mining 41 Open Pit Surface Mining 42 In Situ Leaching 42 Mining Hazards 42 Processing Uranium 44 Nuclear Power Generation 48 Reactor Safety 50 Reprocessing Spent Fuel 52 Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities 53 Radioactive Waste Management 54 Nuclear Waste Policy Act 56 Prerequisites for Effective Radioactive Waste Management 58 v vi CONTENTS Repository Closure 59 Disposal vs. Management 60 A Modest Proposal 61 Nuclear Fusion 62 Costs of Uranium Utilization 63 Summary of Costs 70 References 70 4. Oil and Natural Gas 76 Oil and Natural Gas Exploration 76 Offshore Resources 77 Onshore Resources 82 Tar Sands 87 Oil and Natural Gas Consumption 90 Costs of Utilizing Oil and Natural Gas 90 Summary of Costs 97 References 99 5. Solar 104 Solar Thermal Technologies 105 Solar Power Plants 106 Solar Photovoltaic Technologies 107 Costs of Using Solar Energy 108 Summary of Costs 115 References 118 6. Wind 120 Wind Technologies 121 Costs of Utilizing Wind Power 123 Summary of Costs 128 References 129 7. Geothermal 131 Geothermal Heat Pumps 131 Geothermal Power Plants 133 Costs of Utilizing Geothermal Energy 135 Summary of Costs 142 References 143 8. Hydroelectricity 145 Large Hydro 145 Small Hydro 146 Micro Hydro 146 Pico Hydro 147 Pumped Storage 148 Costs of Hydropower Utilization 148 Summary of Costs 157 References 158 CONTENTS vii 9. Biomass 161 Biopower 161 Biofuels 161 Costs of Biomass Utilization 162 Summary of Costs 169 References 171 10. Conservation and Efficiency 172 Transportation 173 Residential Sector 174 Commercial Sector 175 Industrial Sector 176 Costs of Energy Conservation and Efficiency 177 Summary of Costs 180 References 181 11. Ocean 183 Tidal Energy Technologies 183 Ocean Wave Energy 185 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion 186 Ocean Current Energy 186 Costs of Ocean Energy Utilization 187 Summary of Costs 189 References 190 12. Hydrogen 192 The Hydrogen Energy Process 192 Stationary Uses of Hydrogen 201 Fuel Cell Vehicles 202 Costs of Hydrogen Utilization 203 Summary of Costs 206 References 207 13. Transportation and Electricity Transmission 209 Transportation 209 Transmission 210 Sources of Electricity 210 Costs of Electric Power Utilization 214 Summary of Costs 227 References 228 14. Conclusion 231 Conservation and Efficiency 233 Geothermal Heat Pumps 234 Beneficial Biomass 235 Hydrogen 236 Solar 236 Feasibility of Renewables 237 viii CONTENTS Natural Gas 238 Coal 238 Petroleum 239 Nuclear 240 Further Research 240 Observations 241 References 241 Index 243 About the Author 251 Preface Most of us recall a small number of people who had great influence upon our development, usu- ally at critical times in our lives. I was fortunate to encounter Robert M. Lawrence in and outside classrooms at Colorado State University near a crossroads in life, while deciding what future path to take. An extraordinary scholar and classroom instructor, Professor Lawrence has an unusual and marvelous capacity for translating very complex ideas into plain language. This greatly affected both my intellectual development and my teaching style. Although he might be surprised to learn some of the things we discussed in his classes remain with me after all these years, from him I learned to set high standards for myself and that some things are worth more thought than others. Consequently, I have been thinking about the subject of this book for more than thirty years, and have attempted to present the subject with clarity and precision. Nonetheless, responsibility for the content and views expressed in this book is solely mine and does not necessarily represent those of any person or organization with which I have been previously or currently may be affiliated. Energy Policy Analysis is designed for use in social science or engineering courses concerned with the analysis, formulation, and implementation of national energy policy. This includes undergraduate and graduate courses in public policy analysis, energy policy, natural resources policy, environmental policy, national security policy, and energy and the environment. It is amenable to being used with a supplementary text focused on technical aspects of energy technologies or one with more historical content, such as Roy Nersesian’s Energy for the 21st Century, 2nd ed. (M.E. Sharpe 2010). The book is cross-disciplinary, informed by the literatures of engineering and the social sciences, especially political science, public policy analysis, public administration, national security studies, international relations, and economics. It provides a straightforward and timely framework for analyzing alterna- tives and making national energy policy decisions for any national government. I wish to express my appreciation to a group of extraordinarily creative students at the Univer- sity of Southern Maine who explored with me the subject of this book during an undergraduate seminar in spring 2009: Dan Boyden, Sarah Busch, Sarah Dietz, Moriah Duval, Maggie Guzman, Shannon Keeler, Scott Kingsbury, Alex Lehnen, Chester Lunt, Caleb Moffitt, Kent Murdick, and Ashley Sevigney. Their research and observations during application of the conceptual framework confirmed its decision-making utility. Finally, I could not possibly publish this book without acknowledging the highly professional, expeditious, and meticulous manner in which the folks at M.E. Sharpe handled it from start to finish. Although I believe he will not approve of my saying it here, I must acknowledge I count myself especially fortunate to have stumbled on Harry Briggs, who must certainly be the most patient and encouraging editor an author could ever hope to find on this planet. Without fanfare or unnecessary drama, Harry earned my everlasting gratitude by nursing this project along through a most difficult gestation over a period of three years, in a most gracious and supportive manner. Without Harry, I can truthfully say this book would never have been completed. Thank you, Harry. Michael S. Hamilton ix