Energy Bulletins 2020

2020·7.5 MB·English

by  Missouri Department of Natural Resources, Division of Energy

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- = MISSOURI
DEPARTMENT OF
19
NATURAL RESOURCES

DIVISION OF ENERGY

MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN
January 14, 2020

(Data are for the week ending January 3, 2020, unless stated otherwise.)

Crude Oil

U.S. crude oil prices increased by $1.18 to $59.61 per barrel in the past month and are 14
percent higher compared to this time last year.

Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel)
-- -- -- --- --
01-08-20 12-04-19 change 01-09-19 change
NYMEX $59.61 $58.43 up 2% $52.36 up 14%

Crude Oil
• On January 8, crude oil futures for delivery on the
NYMEX ended lower on the week to settle at
$59.61 per barrel. The price for crude oil futures is
$1.18, or 2 percent, above the month-ago level.
• Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil
futures settlement price of $59.61 is $7.25, or 14
percent, higher.

• In the January 8, 2020 edition of This Week in
Petroleum, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) noted that crude oil prices
increased following the January 3, 2020, U.S.
military operation in Iraq, likely reflecting an
increase in geopolitical risk.

• Domestic crude production was unchanged relative to the prior week at 12.9 million barrels per day
(MMB/D). Last year at this time, production stood at approximately 11.7 MMB/D.

• Total crude imports were up over the prior week at approximately 6.7 MMB/D. Imports at this time
last year were approximately 7.8 MMB/D.

1
• U.S. crude oil supplies increased 1.2 MMB on the week to 431.1 MMB. U.S. supplies are 8.6 MMB
lower compared to this time last year.

• U.S. refinery crude runs were lower relative to the prior week with refineries processing
approximately 16.9 MMB/D. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was higher on the week at 93.0
percent. Last year at this time, capacity use stood at approximately 96.1 percent.

• Gasoline output was lower on the week at approximately 8.9 MMB/D. Output was approximately
9.4 MMB/D at this time last year. Distillate output was lower than the prior week at approximately
5.3 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at 5.6 MMB/D.

• Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week
period stood at 20.6 MMB/D, 0.7 percent higher than the same period last year.

Transportation Fuels

(Note: Gasoline and diesel prices may be obtained from the American Automobile Association
(AAA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as described below. Effective
06/25/2019, the Division of Energy no longer conducts phone surveys to obtain the prices for
these fuels.)

For access to additional information on regional and national gasoline prices, stocks,
production, and demand, please visit: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php.
To navigate to the above URL from EIA’s home page, select the “Sources & Uses” tab at the
top of the page, click on “This Week in Petroleum,” and then click on the “GASOLINE” tab.

For access to and additional information on Missouri gasoline and diesel price averages by
city and county, please visit: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=MO.

• At approximately $2.58, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline on January 6 was 0.3 cents per
gallon, or less than 1 percent, lower compared to last month.

• The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is 34.1 cents per gallon, or 15 percent, higher compared
to this time last year. In the past week, the U.S. average increased by approximately 0.7 cents.

• Gasoline imports decreased from the prior week at approximately 0.4 MMB/D. Last year at this
time, imports stood at approximately 0.6 MMB/D.

• Implied demand for gasoline was lower on the week at approximately 8.1 MMB/D. Demand stood at
approximately 8.7 MMB/D at this time last year.

• In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand has averaged approximately 9.0 MMB/D.
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Motor Gasoline
• U.S. gasoline supplies are up 9.1 MMB on the
week at 251.6 MMB. U.S. supplies are US Stocks in Millions of Barrels
approximately 3.5 MMB higher than this time last
year.

., 250
..
• Distillate stocks increased 5.4 MMB on the week a..i
at 139.1 MMB and stand 0.9 MMB lower
~ 240
compared to the same period last year. C:
0
§ 230
~
• Distillate demand was higher on the week at
approximately 3.4 MMB/D. Demand stood at 220
approximately 3.0 MMB/D at this time last year.
210
On a four-week average, distillate demand was a) ..... C. u >
lower at approximately 3.7 MMB/D. 0" ' ~ "Q'J CQJl z0
N

• On January 6, Missouri’s average retail price for Transportation Fuels
E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel
Missouri Average Retail Prices
containing 85 percent ethanol, was approximately
Cents per Gallon
$1.99 per gallon.
198.6 ■Top Bar -January 06,

2020
• On January 6, Missouri’s average retail price for Ethanol 85 195.1
B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent biofuel, was f;:l Middle Bar -Month
156.8
Ago
approximately $2.75 per gallon.
□ Lower Bar -Year Ago
• According to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy
275.0
Outlook dated December 10, 2019, U.S. regular
Biodiesel 20 275.9
gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.42 per
gallon in 2017 and $2.73 in 2018, were predicted 183.9
to average $2.60 in 2019 and $2.56 in 2020.

3
Natural Gas

Approximately 51.0 percent (1,217,836) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes.
(Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and
electricity.

On January 8, 2020, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $2.14 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu), down approximately $0.26, or 11 percent, in the past month.

Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu)
-01--08--20 -12--04--19 -cha-ng-e -01--09--19 -cha-ng-e
NYMEX $2.14 $2.40 down 11% $2.98 down 28%

• The February 2020 NYMEX futures contract
Natural Gas
settled at $2.14 per MMBtu on January 8, $0.02
higher than the January 1 settlement. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX
$5.00 -r------r-~-~----.----r--..------r----,---,
• In the past month, the futures contract has
decreased 26 cents, or 11 percent.

..
• Futures are down $0.84, or 28 percent, in the past
year. .CG.J .

~ $3.00 -H½---+---+--~-
• According to EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage 0
C
Report, U.S. natural gas supplies are at 3,148
billion cubic feet (Bcf), 19.8 percent higher than
last year at this time and 2.4 percent higher than .., ..,
.C-X,) u .a-,, u 0
the 5-year average. 0 0 0 0 0N
N N N

• According to the EIA, net withdrawals from working gas totaled 44 Bcf for the week ending January
3.

• For the week ending January 2, temperatures averaged warmer than normal in across most of the
U.S. and cooler than normal in the Southwest. Heating degree days nationally were 60 below the
normal, while cooling degree days were two above the normal.

• According to EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas increased 10 percent over the prior report
week. Residential and commercial consumption increased by 15 percent. Natural gas consumed for
power generation increased by 11 percent on the week. Industrial sector consumption increased 2
percent on the week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 16 percent from the prior week.

4
Propane
Approximately 8.9 percent (213,192) of Missouri households use propane to heat their homes. (Data
updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Propane is also used to support commercial
operations, produce goods, dry grain harvests and fuel vehicles.

Please note that the sample of propane distributors surveyed by the Missouri Division of Energy has
changed as a part of the Division’s participation in EIA’s State Heating Oil and Propane Program.

On January 6, the average Missouri retail price for residential propane was approximately
$1.55 per gallon, down 4.2 cents, or 3 percent, in the past month.

Propane - Retail Prices (cents per gallon)
-01--06--20 -12--02--19 -cha-ng-e -01--21--19 -cha-ng-e
Missouri 155.0 159.2 down 3% 169.8 down 9%

• According to the Division of Energy’s most recent
Prooane
statewide propane price survey conducted Residential Pri~es Th.roughout the
January 6, the average Missouri retail residential
Heatin Season for U.S. and Missouri
270
propane price was approximately $1.55 per
gallon. 250
C:
.2 230
i
• U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased over the
~ 210
prior report week at 88.9 MMB. As of January 3, Ill
c. 190
U.S. propane/propylene stocks were 20.1 MMB, ."..'
~ 170
or 29 percent, higher than the year-ago inventory u
150
level for the same time of year. Midwest
inventories are lower for the report week at 19.5 130
00
MMB. Midwest inventories stood at "'
0
N
approximately 20.4 MMB at the same time last
year. - US - MO

• U.S. propane consumption was higher week-over-week at 1.5 MMB/D. Consumption stood at
approximately 1.5 MMB/D at the same time last year.

5
For more information on propane, please visit:
https://energy.mo.gov/resources/be-prepared-for-propane

To access previous issues of the Energy Bulletin, or to subscribe, please visit:
https://energy.mo.gov/energy-bulletins

To learn more about Missouri energy issues, please visit:
http://energy.mo.gov/energy

For more information about the Comprehensive State Energy Plan, please visit:
https://energy.mo.gov/comprehensive-state-energy-plan

The Missouri Energy Bulletin is distributed twice a month by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources’ Division of Energy.
The Division of Energy collects E-85, B-20, and propane heating fuel prices from a sample of retail providers located throughout
the state. The average price reported is based on these sample prices and may or may not reflect the actual price of a particular
retail provider. To preserve confidentiality, price data are averaged. The bulletin is a public resource made available to state
government decision-makers and other interested individuals upon request and online at the Division’s web address. The
Department thanks each of the following in helping to provide accurate, timely data on fuel supplies and prices: the U.S.
Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration; the National Association of State Energy Officials; the St. Louis AAA
Auto Club; and Missouri's energy retailers. For more information, contact: MO Dept. of Natural Resources, Division of Energy,
P.O. Box 176, Jefferson City, MO 65102; Phone: [phone]; Fax: [phone]; Email: [email protected]; Web Address:
https://energy.mo.gov/energy-bulletins.
6
ll'llm
- = MISSOURI
DEPARTMENT OF
19
NATURAL RESOURCES

DIVISION OF ENERGY

D
MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN
ivis
January 27, 2020

ion
(Data are for the week ending January 17, 2020, unless stated otherwise.)

Crude Oil of

Ene
U.S. crude oil prices decreased by $4.19 to $56.74 per barrel in the past month and are 8
percent higher compared to this time last year. rgy

Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel)
---- ---- --
01-22-20 12-18-19 change 01-23-19 change
NYMEX $56.74 $60.93 down 7% $52.62 up 8%

 On January 22, crude oil futures for delivery on Crude Oil
the NYMEX ended lower on the week to settle at
$56.74 per barrel. The price for crude oil futures is •
$4.19, or 7 percent, below the month-ago level.
 Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil
I
futures settlement price of $56.74 is $4.12, or 8
percent, higher.

 In the January 23, 2020 edition of This Week in
Petroleum, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) predicts that slowing crude
-i----,---+--+~~---+--'
oil production growth due to a decline in drilling ~,ll)JXj
rigs during the past year will likely continue
through most of 2020.

 Domestic crude production was unchanged relative to the prior week at 13.0 million barrels per day
(MMB/D). Last year at this time, production stood at approximately 11.9 MMB/D.

 Total crude imports were down over the prior week at approximately 6.4 MMB/D. Imports at this
time last year were approximately 8.2 MMB/D.

1
 U.S. crude oil supplies decreased 0.4 MMB on the week to 428.1 MMB. U.S. supplies are 16.9 MMB
lower compared to this time last year.

 U.S. refinery crude runs were lower relative to the prior week with refineries processing
approximately 16.9 MMB/D. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was lower on the week at 90.5
percent. Last year at this time, capacity use stood at approximately 92.9 percent.

 Gasoline output was higher on the week at approximately 9.5 MMB/D. Output was approximately
9.6 MMB/D at this time last year. Distillate output was lower than the prior week at approximately
5.0 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at 5.2 MMB/D.

 Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week
period stood at 20.0 MMB/D, 1.6 percent lower than the same period last year.

Transportation Fuels

(Note: Gasoline and diesel prices may be obtained from the American Automobile Association
(AAA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as described below. Effective
06/25/2019, the Division of Energy no longer conducts phone surveys to obtain the prices for
these fuels.)

For access to additional information on regional and national gasoline prices, stocks,
production, and demand, please visit: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php.
To navigate to the above URL from EIA’s home page, select the “Sources & Uses” tab at the
top of the page, click on “This Week in Petroleum,” and then click on the “GASOLINE” tab.

For access to and additional information on Missouri gasoline and diesel price averages by
city and county, please visit: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=MO.

 At approximately $2.54, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline on January 20 was 0.1 cents per
gallon, or less than 1 percent, higher compared to last month.

 The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is 28.6 cents per gallon, or 13 percent, higher compared
to this time last year. In the past week, the U.S. average decreased by approximately 3.3 cents.

 Gasoline imports increased from the prior week at approximately 0.6 MMB/D. Last year at this time,
imports stood at approximately 0.6 MMB/D.

 Implied demand for gasoline was higher on the week at approximately 8.7 MMB/D. Demand stood
at approximately 8.9 MMB/D at this time last year.

 In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand has averaged approximately 8.6 MMB/D.
2
 U.S. gasoline supplies are up 1.7 MMB on the Motor Gasoline
week at 260.0 MMB. U.S. supplies are U.S Stocks in Millions of Barrels
approximately 2.1 MMB higher than this time last
year.

 Distillate stocks decreased 1.2 MMB on the week
at 146.0 MMB and stand 3.6 MMB higher
compared to the same period last year.

 Distillate demand was higher on the week at
approximately 4.4 MMB/D. Demand stood at
approximately 4.7 MMB/D at this time last year.
On a four-week average, distillate demand was
higher at approximately 3.5 MMB/D.

 On January 20, Missouri’s average retail price for Transportation Fuels
E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel Missouri Average Retail Prices
containing 85 percent ethanol, was approximately Cents per Gallon
$1.94 per gallon.
193.5 ■Top Bar -January 20,
 On January 20, Missouri’s average retail price for Ethanol 85 192.0 2020
B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent biofuel, was
~ Middle Bar -Month
approximately $2.75 per gallon.
Ago

□ Lower Bar -Year Ago
 According to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy
275.0
Outlook dated January 14, 2020, U.S. regular
gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.73 in Biodiesel 20 275.9
2018, and $2.60 per gallon in 2019, are predicted 279.9
to average $2.63 per gallon in 2020 and $2.63 per
gallon in 2021.

3
Natural Gas

Approximately 50.8 percent (1,218,329) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes.
(Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and
electricity.

On January 22, 2020, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $1.91 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu), down approximately $0.38, or 17 percent, in the past month.

Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu)
01-22-20 12-18-19 change 01-23-19 change
--- --- --- --- ---
NYMEX $1.91 $2.29 down 17% $3.38 down 43%

 The February 2020 NYMEX futures contract
settled at $1.91 per MMBtu on January 22, $0.22 Natural Gas
lower than the January 15 settlement.
Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX

$4.80
 In the past month, the futures contract has •
decreased 38 cents, or 17 percent. .:,,
iIC

.. $3.80
 Futures are down $1.47, or 43 percent, in the past
i'
year. .Ca.i . i
"'
~ $2.80 t t
 According to EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage
C • .
Report, U.S. natural gas supplies are at 2,947
billion cubic feet (Bcf), 23.2 percent higher than
..
$1.80
last year at this time and 9.3 percent higher than
the 5-year average. "(0X ') "0(! 'l 0u 00N
N N N

 According to the EIA, net withdrawals from working gas totaled 92 Bcf for the week ending January
17.

 For the week ending January 16, temperatures averaged warmer than normal across most of the
U.S. and cooler than normal in the Northwest. Heating degree days nationally were 65 below the
normal, while cooling degree days were 3 above the normal.

 According to EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas increased 17 percent over the prior report
week. Residential and commercial consumption increased by 27 percent. Natural gas consumed for
power generation increased by 15 percent on the week. Industrial sector consumption increased 3
percent on the week. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 7 percent from the prior week.

4