Department of Economic Development Division of Energy MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN D January 12, 2018 ivis (Data are for the week ended January 5, 2018, unless stated otherwise.) Crude Oil ion of U.S. crude oil prices increased by $7.61 to $63.57 per barrel in the past month, 19 percent higher compared to this time last year. Ene Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel) rgy -01--10--18 -12--06--17 -cha-ng-e -01--04--1-7 -cha-ng-e NYMEX $63.57 $55.96 up 14% $53.26 up 19% Crude oil futures for February delivery on the Crude Oil NYMEX ended $0.61, or 1.0 percent higher on January 10 to settle at $63.57 per barrel, Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX after Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an 8th-straight weekly decline in supplies, along with a fall in weekly .. production. This was the first settlement above '.i.i $63 per barrel in more than 3 years. ~.. $50.00 +----+---+,..,.._ QI a. According to the EIA, domestic crude supplies ~ $40.00 +--~ L-+---'--+-+--+-+--- fell 4.9 million barrels (MMB) for the week ~ ended January 5. C $30.00 +H---+---+-----+---+---+---+---+--+--• Compared to this time last year, the U.S. $20.00 +----+-+----+-+---+-+----+--+-' crude oil futures settlement price of $63.57 is $10.31, or 19 percent, higher. 8ID <5l: -..:,:i 0u 8r- <5l: -..,::i 0u 8IX) N N N Domestic crude production was slightly lower than in the prior week at nearly 9.5 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at nearly 9.0 MMB/D. Total crude imports were lower from the prior week at nearly 7.7 MMB/D. Imports at this time last year averaged over 9.0 MMB/D. U.S. crude oil supplies decreased 4.9 MMB on the week to 419.5 MMB. U.S. supplies are 63.6 MMB lower compared to this time last year. U.S. refinery crude runs were higher from the prior week with refiners processing over 17.3 MMB/D. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was lower on the week at 95.3 percent. Last year at this time, capacity use stood at 93.6 percent. 1 Gasoline output was lower on the week at over 9.5 MMB/D. Output was nearly 9.7 MMB/D at this time last year. Distillate output was lower from the prior week at nearly 5.3 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at over 5.3 MMB/D. Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week period stood at 20.6 MMB/D, up by 5.6 percent compared to the same period last year. Transportation Fuels On January 9, Missouri’s statewide average retail price for gasoline was almost $2.25 per gallon, up 4.3 cents in the past month and up 5.0 cents in the past year. Regular Unleaded Gasoline - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--09--1-8 -12--05--1-7 -cha-ng-e -01--03--1-7 -ch-an-g-e US 252.2 250.0 up 1% 237.7 up 6% Missouri 224.9 220.6 up 2% 219.9 up 2% Diesel Fuel - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--09--1-8 -12--05--1-7 -ch-an-g-e -01--0-3--1-7 -ch-an-g-e US 299.6 292.2 up 3% 258.6 up 16% Missouri 271.7 263.5 up 3% 230.8 up 18% On January 9, Missouri’s average retail price for gasoline was almost $2.25 per gallon, up Regular Unleaded Gasoline 4.3 cents in the past month. Average Retail Prices in the U.S. and Missouri 275 Missouri’s average price for diesel fuel was nearly $2.72 per gallon, up 8.2 cents in the 250 C past month. 0 i 225 i., Compared to last year at this time, Missouri’s ~ 200 a. average retail gasoline price is 5.0 cents per "' ~ 175 gallon, or 2 percent, higher while the average uIll retail diesel fuel price is 40.9 cents per gallon, 150 or 18 percent, higher. .. 125 ID u r- u IX) At over $2.52, the U.S. average price for 0" 0 0M 0 "0 N N N regular gasoline is 2.2 cents per gallon, or 1 -US - MO percent, higher compared to last month. Regular Unleaded Gasoline • The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is Average Retail Prices in the U.S , Midwest, Missouri and Missouri Regions 14.5 cents per gallon, or 6 percent, higher January 09, 2018 Fuel Data in Cents per Gallon compared to this time last year. In the past U.S. 252.2 week, the U.S. average increased by less than Midwest 242.8 0.01 cent per gallon. Missouri Gasoline imports decreased from the prior Central, Mo. il:1/11 week at nearly 0.3 MMB/D. Last year at this time, imports stood at nearly 0.7 MMB/D. Kansas City, Mo. iMil Northeast, Mo. Northwest, Mo. UH 2 St. Louis, Mo. 231.9 Southeast, Mo. 229.9 Southwest, Mo. UJ!I Implied demand for gasoline was higher on the week at over 8.8 MMB/D. Demand stood at nearly 8.5 MMB/D at this time last year. In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.1 MMB/D. U.S. gasoline supplies were higher on the week at 237.3 MMB. U.S. supplies are 3.2 MMB lower compared to this time last year. Distillate stocks increased 4.3 MMB on the week at 143.1 MMB and stand 27.0 MMB lower compared to the same period last year. Motor Gasoline Distillate demand increased on the week at U.S. Stocks in Millions of Barrels over 3.6 MMB/D. Demand stood at over 3.1 MMB/D at this time last year. On a four-week average, distillate demand was lower at nearly 250 3.9 MMB/D. .".' i.. 2~-fl--i¥\c-J~ -+--¾ On January 9, Missouri’s average retail price I'll for E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel Ill 230 +--+--+--.. C containing 85 percent ethanol, was nearly ] $1.83 per gallon, 42.0 cents, or 18.7 percent, ; 220 +--+--+--+---+---t---t----+ lower than the average price for conventional motor gasoline. On January 9, Missouri’s average retail price .U.,) "' "C. "u lM' "C. "u for B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent 0N ::E <I) Cl 0N <I) Cl biofuel, was nearly $2.15 per gallon, 56.8 Transportation Fuels cents per gallon, or 21.0 percent, lower than Missouri Average Retail Prices the average price for conventional diesel fuel. Cents per Gallon 224.9 According to EIA’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook dated January 9, 2018, U.S. regular '--------' 219.9 gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.43 ■Top Bar-January 09, 182.9 2018 per gallon in 2015 and $2.15 per gallon in Ethanol 85 83.4 .__ __ _. 207.3 2016, are projected to average $2.42 in 2017. El Middle Bar -Month 271.7 Ago Diesel ..,. ,..,,..,,..,.,,..,, ....,. .",.",.',''.','.','.','.",.2 3026_83 "''iD_ Lower Bar -Year Ago 214.9 Biodiesel 20 1;l;););'1;),:).:);l;i;';;l;-:;m 259.9 ---~219.0 3 Natural Gas Approximately 51.6 percent (1,220,485) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and electricity. On January 10, 2018, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down $0.36, or 11 percent, in the past year. Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu) -01--10--1-8 -12--06--1-7 -cha-ng-e -01--04--1-7 -ch-an-g-e NYMEX $2.91 $2.92 down 0% $3.27 down 11% The February 2018 NYMEX futures contract Natural Gas settled at $2.91 per MMBtu on January 10, down 1.7 cents from the prior settlement. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX $4.00 ~--~----~--.-. --~ In the past month, the futures contract has decreased 1 cent, or 0 percent. Futures are down $0.36, or 11 percent, in the .. past year. QI a. !"' Working gas in storage was 2,767 billion $2.00 -r--'l,--'-I-~+--+--+--+-----+ 0 cubic feet (Bcf), 12.1 percent below the five- Q year average inventory level for the week. According to EIA’s January 11, 2018 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, U.S. natural gas $1.00 +-----+--+---+--+----+--+--+--e--' "' supplies are 415 Bcf, or 13.0 percent, lower 8 N than last year at this time. According to the EIA, net withdrawals from storage totaled a record 359 Bcf for the week ending January 5, topping the previous record of 288 Bcf set four years ago (2014) by 25 percent. This compares with the five-year (2013–17) average net withdrawals of 169 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 136 Bcf during the same week. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 23 degrees Fahrenheit (°F), 10°F lower than the normal and 16°F lower than last year at this time. Temperatures in the heavy natural gas-consuming areas of the Midwest and Northeast were significantly colder than normal—averaging less than 13°F during the week. According to the EIA, domestic demand fell across nearly all sectors, as temperatures moderated from the previous week’s cold. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 14 percent compared with the previous report week and on Monday fell below 100 Bcf/d for the first time since December 25. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 10 percent week over week, and industrial sector consumption decreased by 7 percent week over week after hitting an all-time high on January 1. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 19 percent. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 2 percent. 4 Propane Approximately 9.2 percent (216,853) of Missouri households use propane to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Propane is also used to support commercial operations, produce goods, dry grain harvests and fuel vehicles. On December 9, the average Missouri retail price for residential propane was nearly $1.82 per gallon, up 37.4 cents, or 26 percent, in the past year. Propane - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--09--1-8 -12--05--1-7 -cha-ng-e -01--03--1-7 -ch-an-g-e Missouri 181.8 169.6 up 7% 144.4 up 26% According to the Division of Energy’s most Propane recent statewide propane price survey Residential Prices Throughout the conducted January 9, the average Missouri Heatin Season for U.S. and Missouri retail residential propane price was nearly 270 $1.82 per gallon, up 37.4 cents compared to 250 last year at this time. C - .2 230 ii C..l 210 According to the survey, the highest Missouri [ l'Xl retail residential price for propane was nearly "' $2.30 per gallon. The lowest retail price was ~ 170 Qj nearly $1.50 per gallon. u 150 130 U.S. propane stocks decreased by 6.3 MMB 110 .. .. last week to 61.7 MMB as of January 5, 2018, M0U ) <Cl'.. .=: 0u "M0 <Cl'.. .=: 0u M101 0 10.2 MMB or 14.2 percent, lower than the N N N five-year average inventory level for this same -US - MO time of year. Midwest inventories decreased by over 2.8 MMB to over 18.7 MMB last week. Midwest inventories stood at nearly 21.6 MMB at this time last year. U.S. propane consumption increased on the week at nearly 1.9 MMB/D. Consumption stood at nearly 1.6 MMB/D last year at this time. For more information on propane, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/services/be-prepared-for-propane To access previous issues of the Energy Bulletin, or to subscribe, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/stay- informed/missouri-energy-bulletins To learn more about Missouri energy issues, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy For more information about the Comprehensive State Energy Plan, visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/about/comprehensive-state-energy-plan. The Missouri Energy Bulletin is distributed twice a month by the Missouri Department of Economic Development’s Division of Energy. The Division of Energy collects transportation and propane heating fuel prices from several retail providers located throughout the state. To preserve confidentiality, price data are averaged and reported by region. The bulletin is a public resource made available to state government decision-makers, other interested individuals upon request and online at the division’s Web address. The department thanks each of the following in helping to provide accurate, timely data on fuel supplies and prices: the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration; the National Association of State Energy Officials; the St. Louis AAA Auto Club; and Missouri's energy retailers. For more information, contact: MO Dept. of Economic Development, Division of Energy, P.O. Box 1766, Jefferson City, MO 65102-1766; Phone: 573-751-2254; Fax: 573-751-6860; Email: [email protected]; Web Address: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/stay-informed/missouri-energy-bulletins. 5 Department of Economic Development D Division of Energy ivis ion MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN January 26, 2018 of (Data are for the week ended January 12, 2018, unless stated otherwise.) Ene Crude Oil rgy U.S. crude oil prices increased by $5.88 to $63.97 per barrel in the past month, 25 percent higher compared to this time last year. Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel) -01-17--18 -12-20--17 -chan-ge -01-18--17 -chan-ge NYMEX $63.97 $58.09 up 10% $51.08 up 25% Crude oil futures for February delivery on the NYMEX ended $0.24, or 0.3 percent, higher Crude Oil on January 17 to settle at $63.97 per barrel. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX Both Brent and WTI contracts climbed to their highest prices since December 2014 this week with Brent reaching $70.37 on Monday and WTI up to $64.89 on Tuesday. a....i OPEC and Russia have been cutting :. . $50.00 +---+- •- production since January 2017; the cuts are QI set to last through 2018. The cuts have iQ. coincided with strong demand and solid $40.00 --~ +-'---1r---t--+-+--=t===t==l economic growth, tightening the market. 0 0 $30.00 +H--'-1----+---+------+----+---+--+---+---< According to the Energy Information $20.00 ________ _. Administration (EIA), domestic crude supplies decreased 6.9 million barrels (MMB) for the week ended January 12. Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil futures settlement price of $63.97 is $12.89, or 25 percent, higher. 1 Domestic crude production was slightly higher than in the prior week at nearly 9.8 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at nearly 9.0 MMB/D. Total crude imports were higher from the prior week at nearly 8.0 MMB/D. Imports at this time last year averaged nearly 8.4 MMB/D. U.S. crude oil supplies decreased 6.9 MMB on the week to 412.7 MMB. U.S. supplies are 72.8 MMB lower compared to this time last year. U.S. refinery crude runs were lower from the prior week with refiners processing nearly 16.9 MMB/D. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was lower on the week at 93.0 percent. Last year at this time, capacity use stood at 90.7 percent. Gasoline output was higher on the week at over 9.7 MMB/D. Output was nearly 9.0 MMB/D at this time last year. Distillate output was lower from the prior week at nearly 5.1 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at over 4.7 MMB/D. Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week period stood at 20.5 MMB/D, up by 6.2 percent compared to the same period last year. Transportation Fuels On January 22, Missouri’s statewide average retail price for gasoline was over $2.33 per gallon, up 18.6 cents in the past month and up 24.3 cents in the past year. Regular Unleaded Gasoline - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--22--18 -12--19--17 -cha-ng-e -01--17--1-7 -cha-ng-e US 256.7 245.0 up 5% 235.8 up 9% Missouri 233.4 214.9 up 9% 209.1 up 12% Diesel Fuel - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--22--18 -12--19--17 -cha-ng-e -01--17--1-7 -cha-ng-e US 303.0 290.1 up 4% 258.5 up 17% Missouri 273.2 262.5 up 4% 231.3 up 18% On January 22, Missouri’s average retail price for gasoline was over $2.33 per gallon, up Regular Unleaded Gasoline 18.6 cents in the past month. Average Retail Prices in the US and Missouri 275 Missouri’s average price for diesel fuel was over $2.73 per gallon, up 10.6 cents in the 250 C past month. 0 i 225 i., Compared to last year at this time, Missouri’s ~ 200 a. average retail gasoline price is 24.3 cents per "' . °l: 175 +.-'II-#+---+---+-- • gallon, or 12 percent, higher while the average uQI retail diesel fuel price is 41.9 cents per gallon, 150 +-½-I-+--+----+--- ' • or 18 percent, higher. 125 ... "'0° ' <Cl:. ~ 0u r0M- 0u "1010 ' At nearly $2.57, the U.S. average price for N N N regular gasoline is 11.7 cents per gallon, or 5 - US - MO percent, higher compared to last month. 2 • The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is Regular Unleaded Gasoline 20.9 cents per gallon, or 9 percent, higher Average Retail Prices in the U.S., Midwest, compared to this time last year. In the past Missouri and Missouri Regions week, the U.S. average increased by 1.0 cent January 22, 2018 Fuel Data in Cents per Gallon U.S. 256.7 per gallon. Midwest 246.9 Gasoline imports increased from the prior Missouri 233.4 week at nearly 0.4 MMB/D. Last year at this Central, Mo. time, imports stood at nearly 0.6 MMB/D. Kansas City, Mo. Mlil Implied demand for gasoline was lower on the Northeast, Mo. 232.9 week at nearly 8.7 MMB/D. Demand stood at Northwest, Mo. nearly 8.1 MMB/D at this time last year. St. Louis, Mo. Miki In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand Southeast, Mo. 239.5 has averaged over 8.9 MMB/D. Southwest, Mo. U.S. gasoline supplies were higher on the Motor Gasoline week at 240.9 MMB. U.S. supplies are 5.5 MMB lower compared to this time last year. US Stocks in Millions of Barrels 260 Distillate stocks decreased 3.9 MMB on the 250 week at 139.2 MMB and stand 29.9 MMB ., lower compared to the same period last year. .. i. . 240 ~ Distillate demand increased on the week at Ill 230 C over 4.7 MMB/D. Demand stood at over 4.0 ~ MMB/D at this time last year. On a four-week ::E 220 average, distillate demand was higher at 210 nearly 4.1 MMB/D. 200 ... Ofonr EJa8n5u maroyt o2r2 ,f uMeli,s scoounrvi’esn ativoenraalg me oretotari lf uperli ce "0II )' ::"E' ~C: ICQI)I. CuQlI r0"- ' ~C: ICQI)I. CuQlI N N containing 85 percent ethanol, was nearly $1.91 per gallon, 42.3 cents, or 18.2 percent, Transportation Fuels lower than the average price for conventional Missouri Average Retail Prices motor gasoline. Cents per Gallon 233.4 On January 22, Missouri’s average retail price .___ __ __. 209.1 for B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent biofuel, was nearly $2.80 per gallon, 6.7 cents ■Top Bar -January 22, 191.1 per gallon, or 2.4 percent, lower than the Ethanol 85 76.4 2018 average price for conventional diesel fuel. '----~199.5 El Middle Bar -Month 273.2 Ago According to EIA’s latest Short Term Energy Diesel ..,. .,,..,,..,,,,.,,w.,.,•..,•.,,.,,w.,.,,,. ..,.. ,,..2, 3126,32 "!'iD.... Lower Bar -Year Ago Outlook dated January 9, 2018, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.15 279.9 per gallon in 2016, and $2.42 in 2017, are Biodiesel 20 :;m;m;l;l;l;l;l;l;l;:·;l;l; 269.9 projected to average $2.57 in 2018. .___ __ __. 219.0 3 Natural Gas Approximately 51.6 percent (1,220,485) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and electricity. On January 17, 2018, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $3.23 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down $0.07, or 2 percent, in the past year. Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu) -01--17--1-8 -12--20--1-7 -cha-ng-e -01--18--1-7 -ch-an-g-e NYMEX $3.23 $2.64 up 22% $3.30 down 2% The February 2018 NYMEX futures contract settled at $3.23 per MMBtu on January 17, up Natural Gas 10.3 cents from the prior settlement. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX In the past month, the futures contract has increased .59 cents, or 22 percent. .. ::, Ill Futures are down $0.07, or 2 percent, in the ~ $3.00 +-------+---1------ll" past year. ~.. QI a. Working gas in storage was 2,584 billion ."!!' $2.00 +-•-~--,---+---+--+----+---+---+----l cubic feet (Bcf), 12.3 percent below the five- 0 year average inventory level for the week. C According to EIA’s January 18, 2018 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, U.S. natural gas $1.00 ---------+-..- +----+---+--.. -+-~ supplies are 368 Bcf, or 12.5 percent, lower u ",.; u I,X.;) 0 0 0 0 than last year at this time. N N According to the EIA, net withdrawals from storage totaled 183 Bcf for the week ending January 12, compared with the five-year (2013–17) average net withdrawal of 203 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 230 Bcf during the same week. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 34 degrees Fahrenheit (°F), 1°F higher than the normal and 4°F higher than last year at this time. Temperatures in the heavy natural gas-consuming areas of the Northeast were also significantly warmer than the previous week. Despite warming somewhat, temperatures in the Northeast remained colder than normal—averaging lower than 25°F during the week, about 6°F lower than normal. According to the EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas was unchanged from the previous report week, averaging 102.3 Bcf/d. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 6 percent week over week. Industrial sector consumption increased by 1 percent week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 4 percent. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 3 percent. 4 Propane Approximately 9.2 percent (216,853) of Missouri households use propane to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Propane is also used to support commercial operations, produce goods, dry grain harvests and fuel vehicles. On January 22, the average Missouri retail price for residential propane was over $1.87 per gallon, up 35.9 cents, or 24 percent, in the past year. Propane - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--22--1-8 -12--19--1-7 -cha-ng-e -01--17--1-7 -ch-an-g-e Missouri 187.1 170.5 up 10% 151.2 up 24% According to the Division of Energy’s most Pro~ane recent statewide propane price survey Residential Prices Throughout the conducted January 22, the average Missouri Heatin Season for U.S. and Missouri retail residential propane price was over $1.87 270 per gallon, up 35.9 cents compared to last 250 year at this time. C ~ 230 l.I.'!.lll 210 According to the survey, the highest Missouri [ 190 retail residential price for propane was nearly ~ 170 $2.46 per gallon. The lowest retail price was C ~ 150 $1.49 per gallon. 130 110 U.S. propane stocks decreased by 3.7 MMB ., ., last week to 58.0 MMB as of January 12, I"0D' <0I:. ~ 0u r"0-' <0I:. ~ 0u "0C0' N N N 2018, 10.3 MMB or 15.1 percent, lower than the five-year average inventory level for this - US - MO same time of year. Midwest inventories decreased by over 1.8 MMB to nearly 16.9 MMB last week. Midwest inventories stood at nearly 19.5 MMB at this time last year. U.S. propane consumption decreased on the week at over 1.5 MMB/D. Consumption stood at over 1.9 MMB/D last year at this time. For more information on propane, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/services/be-prepared-for-propane To access previous issues of the Energy Bulletin, or to subscribe, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/stay- informed/missouri-energy-bulletins To learn more about Missouri energy issues, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy For more information about the Comprehensive State Energy Plan, visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/about/comprehensive-state-energy-plan. The Missouri Energy Bulletin is distributed twice a month by the Missouri Department of Economic Development’s Division of Energy. The Division of Energy collects transportation and propane heating fuel prices from several retail providers located throughout the state. To preserve confidentiality, price data are averaged and reported by region. The bulletin is a public resource made available to state government decision-makers, other interested individuals upon request and online at the division’s Web address. The department thanks each of the following in helping to provide accurate, timely data on fuel supplies and prices: the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration; the National Association of State Energy Officials; the St. Louis AAA Auto Club; and Missouri's energy retailers. For more information, contact: MO Dept. of Economic Development, Division of Energy, P.O. Box 1766, Jefferson City, MO 65102-1766; Phone: 573-751-2254; Fax: 573-751-6860; Email: [email protected]; Web Address: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/stay-informed/missouri-energy-bulletins. 5