Energy Bulletins 2017

2017·7.9 MB·English

by  Missouri Department of Economic Development, Division of Energy

Division of Energy

MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN
January 6, 2017

(Data are for the week ended December 30, 2016, unless stated otherwise.)

Crude Oil

U.S. crude oil prices increased by $3.49 to $53.26 per barrel in the past month and stand 57
percent higher compared to this time last year.

Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel)
-01--04--1-7 -12--07--1-6 -ch-an-g-e -01--0-6--1-6 -ch-an-g-e
NYMEX $53.26 $49.77 up 7% $33.97 up 57%

 Crude oil futures for February delivery on the
NYMEX ended $0.93, or 1.8 percent, higher Crude Oil
on January 4 to settle at $53.26 per barrel, on
Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX
falling crude oil inventories and on signs that
the world's top oil exporters will stick to
agreed output cuts that took effect this week.

..
".i.i
 According to the federal weekly fuels report
released January 4, U.S. crude inventories ~.. sso.oo w~ - A--l-1l'J!l-.l-aM-- lA-A-J
decreased 7.1 million barrels (MMB) on the QI
Q.
week to 479.0 MMB. Saudi Arabia cut oil ~ $40.00 r--r--i-----~ i------ r--.iet----t---t-----i--;
output in January by at least 486,000 bpd to ~
C
10.06 MMB, according to a Gulf source
$30.00 -t------t---+--+----+H~t----+--+---+---<
familiar with Saudi oil policy. That would
mean the world's largest crude producer was
holding up its end of a November agreement $20.00 --------~------~
Ill Mu Mu
by OPEC, which has helped boost oil prices. B 0 0
N

 Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil futures settlement price of $53.26 is $19.29, or 57
percent, higher.

 Domestic crude production slightly increased from the prior week at nearly 8.8 MMB/D. Last year at
this time, production stood at over 9.2 MMB/D. Total crude imports decreased from the prior week at
nearly 7.2 MMB/D. Imports at this time last year averaged slightly over 7.5 MMB/D.

1
 U.S. refinery crude runs increased from the prior week with refiners processing nearly 16.7 MMB/D.
U.S. refinery capacity utilization was up on the week at 92.0 percent. Last year at this time, capacity
use stood at 92.6 percent.

 Gasoline output decreased on the week at nearly 9.5 MMB/D. Output was nearly 8.8 MMB/D at this
time last year. Distillate output increased from the prior week at over 5.3 MMB/D. Last year at this
time, production stood at over 4.9 MMB/D.

 Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week
period stood at about 19.6 MMB/D, down by 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year.

Transportation Fuels

On January 3, Missouri’s statewide average retail price for gasoline was about $2.20 per
gallon, up 19.3 cents in the past month and up 47.5 cents in the past year.

Regular Unleaded Gasoline - Retail Prices (cents per gallon)
-01--03--17 -12--05--16 -cha-ng-e -01--04--16 -cha-ng-e
US 237.7 220.8 up 8% 202.8 up 17%
Missouri 219.9 200.6 up 10% 172.4 up 28%

Diesel Fuel - Retail Prices (cents per gallon)
-01--03--17 -12--05--16 -cha-ng-e -01--04--16 -cha-ng-e
US 258.6 248.0 up 4% 221.1 up 17%
Missouri 230.8 221.3 up 4% 192.4 up 20%

 On January 3, Missouri’s average retail price
Regular Unleaded Gasoline
for gasoline was nearly $2.20 per gallon, up
19.3 cents in the past month. Average Retail Prices in the US and Missouri

 Missouri’s average price for diesel fuel was
nearly $2.31 per gallon, up 9.5 cents in the
past month. 1
250

ii
 Compared to last year at this time, Missouri’s ~.. 225 -r.-ih.11~ +--H-".--t- -t-Jori'r.;-
average retail gasoline price is 47.5 cents per .Q.I
! 200 +-1r-+-+---+-+--1l---fr-.~ --fi--i
gallon, or 28 percent, higher while the average
C
retail diesel fuel price is 38.4 cents per gallon, ~ 175 +i----+--+----+-____,,,c-V-__- -+_+-----+-<
or 20 percent, higher.

 At nearly $2.38, the U.S. average price for
125
., .,
rpeegrucelanrt ,g haisgohlienre c iosm 1p6a.9re cde tnot sl apsetr m goalnltohn. , or 8 .NU0-' )i <C(. .=: 0u .IN0D- i <C(. .=: 0u .N0I-'- i
- US - MO
 The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is
up 34.9 cents per gallon, or 17 percent, compared to this time last year. In the past week, the U.S.
average increased by 6.8 cents per gallon.

 Gasoline imports increased from the prior week at over 0.7 MMB/D. Last year at this time, imports
stood at over 0.6 MMB/D.
2
Regular Unleaded Gasoline
 Implied demand for gasoline decreased on the
Average Retail Prices in the U S , Midwest,
week at nearly 8.5 MMB/D. Demand stood at Missouri and Missouri Regions it••
nearly 8.2 MMB/D at this time last year. U.~~nuaz 03, 2017 Fuel Data in Cents per Gallon

Midwest
 In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand
Missouri
has averaged nearly 9.0 MMB/D.
Central, Mo,
 U.S. gasoline supplies increased 8.3 MMB on Kansas City, Mo,
the week to 235.5 MMB. U.S. supplies are up
Northeast, Mo. 216,0
3.5 MMB compared to this time last year.
Northwest, Mo.
 Distillate stocks increased on the week at St Louis, Mo, 226,4
161.7 MMB and stand 2.3 MMB higher
Southeast, Mo, :f.ilill
compared to the same period last year.
Southwest, Mo.

 Distillate demand decreased on the week at
Motor Gasoline
nearly 2.8 MMB/D. Demand stood at slightly
over 3.0 MMB/D at this time last year. On a US Stocks in Millions of Barrels
four-week average, distillate demand was
slightly lower at over 3.8 MMB/D.

 On January 3, Missouri’s average retail price
for E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel i.... 2~ t-,-t-1--+r-tt•••-t-----rW~,-i,
containing 85 percent ethanol, was $2.07 per
Ill
gallon, 12.6 cents, or 5.8 percent, lower than ~c 2~~1-+---+-+--+------
]
the average price for conventional motor
gasoline. ; 220 +-------+---+----H-f--•+---4l-l-_,_

 On January 3, Missouri’s average retail price
for B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent
biofuel, was $2.19 per gallon, 11.8 cents per C: Q, C: Q, u
gallon, or 5.2 percent, lower than the average .:.,, "Il'l .:.,, "Il'l CIlll
price for conventional diesel fuel.

Transportation Fuels
 According to EIA’s latest Short Term Energy
Outlook dated December 6, 2016, U.S. regular Missouri Average Retail Prices
Cents per Gallon
gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.43
per gallon in 2015, are projected to average 219,9
Regular Gasoline 200,6
$2.14 per gallon in 2016 and $2.30 in 2017.
2,4
■Top Bar -January 03,
- \~2i0'°7 ,3
2017
Ethanol 85 ~ 6
!ll Middle Bar -Month
f □
Diesel ,},},},}%,m,1,},},},},}y,~19t,2y3s ~~:er Bar -Year Ago
3
Natural Gas
Approximately 52 percent (1,236,651) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes. (Data updated
from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and electricity.

(Please note natural gas data (with the exception of working gas in storage which is up to date) will be updated
the week of January 15, 2017 following the release of EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update on January 12, 2017)

On January 4, 2017, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $3.27 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu), up $1.00, or 44 percent, in the past year.

Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu)
-01--04--1-7 -12--07--1-6 -cha-ng-e -01--06--1-6 -ch-an-g-e
NYMEX $3.27 $3.35 down 2% $2.27 up 44%

 The February 2017 NYMEX futures contract
Natural Gas
settled at $3.27 per MMBtu on January 4,
down 8 cents from the prior settlement. Near-Month Future Prices al the NYMEX
Futures are up $1.00, or 44 percent, in the past
year.
.. $6.00 +--II-+---+-+---+----+----+-+--+--+-+---+----+-<
::,
 In the past year, natural gas prices have
; $5.00 ++l-+---+-----+-+---+--l-----+-1-----+----+---+-----+-t
increased by $1.00 per MMBtu, or 44 percent.
~
t t--t-7'~.ttt--t---t--t•••-t--t1m11
$4.oo
 Working gas in storage was 3,311 Bcf, 0.6 Q.
"'
percent below the five-year average inventory ~ $3.00 +---+---+-l----h---4---l-+==+===-1---- ,1-1---<
level for the week. According to EIA’s 0
Q
January 5, 2017 Weekly Natural Gas Storage
$2.00 +---+----+---+---t--+---j--1----'~--V"J._
Report, U.S. natural gas supplies are 364 Bcf,
or 9.9 percent, lower than last year at this ..
-
time. ::, u
-, 0

 Withdrawals from storage totaled 209 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011–15) average net
withdrawal of 101 Bcf and last year's net withdrawal of 33 Bcf during the same week. Working
natural gas stocks total 3,597 Bcf, which is 78 Bcf above the five-year average and 226 Bcf below
last year at this time. This week's storage withdrawal represents the largest December net withdrawal
in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) history, which dates back to late 1994. The
substantial storage draw is related to a combination of cold weather, increased electric-sector capacity
for natural gas, reduced natural gas production relative to last year, and increased natural gas export
volumes.

 Average temperatures in the Lower 48 states fell 6°F on the week and averaged 34°F. Temperatures
in most regions were below the seasonal norms for the period. Falling temperatures this week pushed
temperatures 3°F below the normal level for this time of year and 16°F lower than last year at this
time. HDD in the Lower 48 states totaled 217, compared with 110 last year and a normal of 195.

 According to the EIA, U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 11 percent compared with the
previous report week. Power burn climbed by 10 percent week over week, while industrial sector
consumption increased by 3 percent. In the residential/commercial sector, consumption increased by
15 percent. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 9 percent.
4
Propane
Approximately 10 percent (227,100) of Missouri households use propane to heat their homes. (Data updated from
the most recent U.S. Census report.) Propane is also used to support commercial operations, produce goods, dry
grain harvests and fuel vehicles.

On January 3, the average Missouri retail price for residential propane was over $1.44 per
gallon, up 14.5 cents in the past month and up 16.0 cents in the past year.

Propane - Retail Prices (cents per gallon)
-01--03--1-7 -12--05--1-6 -ch-an-g-e -01--0-4--1-6 -ch-an-g-e
Missouri 144.4 129.9 up 11% 128.4 up 12%

 According to the Division of Energy’s most
recent statewide propane price survey ~~o~
conducted January 3, the average Missouri Residential~r~~f the
HeatingS eason for U.S. and Missouri
retail residential propane price was over $1.44
per gallon, up 14.5 cents in the past month and 2~ +-----t---+---+--t---+--+--+----+---i
up 16.0 cents compared to last year at this 270 +---+-+---+--+-----t--+--t-------.---
p so
time.
i 2~ +---+---+--+---+--+-----t----+--+-<
C,
 According to the survey, the highest Missouri ~ 210 +--t------+--+--+--+--t------+---.f+-l
..
retail residential price for propane was $1.80 ~1~ +--f---+---+'11"'-+--+--f---+--+-l
per gallon. The lowest retail price was $1.03
~ 170 +---l''---+--+---+--+---j--l■~J~•-+-l
u
per gallon.
150 +-+-1--+--+-+--+--•l+-l

1~ +--+-+--+~ ..-~ -t---+-d-H
 U.S. propane stocks decreased by 2.7 MMB
110 +---+-+---+.-.. -+----+--+--+-..-. --+-'
last week to 84.1 MMB as of December 30, ,U,';l u I,D,; u ,r,,.;.
2016, 12.2 MMB, or 12.7 percent, lower than 0 0 0 0 0
N N N
a year ago. Midwest inventories were down -US - MO
1.1 MMB at over 22.7 MMB. Midwest
inventories stood at nearly 25.7 MMB at this time last year.

 U.S. propane consumption was slightly higher on the week at nearly 1.4 MMB/D. Consumption
stood at nearly 1.3 MMB/D last year at this time.

For more information on propane, please visit:
http://energy.mo.gov/energy/services/be-prepared-for-propane

To access previous issues of the Energy Bulletin, or to subscribe, please visit:
http://energy.mo.gov/energy/stay-informed/missouri-energy-bulletins

To learn more about Missouri energy issues, please visit:
http://energy.mo.gov/energy

For more information about the Comprehensive State Energy Plan, visit:
http://energy.mo.gov/energy/about/comprehensive-state-energy-plan.

The Missouri Energy Bulletin is distributed twice a month by the Missouri Department of Economic Development’s Division of Energy. The
Division of Energy collects transportation and propane heating fuel prices from several retail providers located throughout the state. To preserve
confidentiality, price data are averaged and reported by region. The bulletin is a public resource made available to state government decision-
makers, other interested individuals upon request and online at the division’s Web address. The department thanks each of the following in
helping to provide accurate, timely data on fuel supplies and prices: the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration; the
National Association of State Energy Officials; the St. Louis AAA Auto Club; and Missouri's energy retailers. For more information, contact:
5
MO Dept. of Economic Development, Division of Energy, P.O. Box 1766, Jefferson City, MO 65102-1766; Phone: [phone]; Fax: 573-751-
6860; Email: [email protected]; Web Address: http://energy.mo.gov/energy/stay-informed/missouri-energy-bulletins.
6
Division of Energy

MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN
January 20, 2017

(Data are for the week ended January 13, 2017, unless stated otherwise.)

Crude Oil

U.S. crude oil prices decreased by $1.41 to $51.08 per barrel in the past month and stand 92
percent higher compared to this time last year.

Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel)
-01--18--1-7 -12--21--1-6 -cha-ng-e -01--20--1-6 -ch-an-g-e
NYMEX $51.08 $52.49 down 3% $26.55 up 92%

 Crude oil futures for February delivery on the
NYMEX ended $1.40 or 2.7 percent, lower on Crude Oil
January 18 to settle at $51.08 per barrel,
Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX
hitting the lowest price in a week on a strong
dollar and expectations that US producers
would boost output even as OPEC's output fell
from a record high. i..i..

 According to the federal weekly fuels report II.ll.ll $50.00 +-,r-H:__-4+_;
released January 19, U.S. crude inventories Ill
Q.
j
increased 2.3 million barrels (MMB) on the $40.00 -i--i----t~-- --t--.n---1~--i---t-1
week to 485.5 MMB. Crude oil production by 0
Q
OPEC fell 320,000 barrels per day to 33.09 $30.00 +---+--t---i---ttr-+---+--+--H
MMB/D in December, the International
Energy Administration said in its monthly
report released January 18 in Paris. It ... ... ... ...
attributed the decline to lower Saudi output L0Mi l <a(. ..:..,. 0u I0MD <a(. ..:..,. 0u
N N
and disruptions in Nigeria. The agency also
said early indications suggest a deeper OPEC reduction may be under way for January. Oil closed off
the session’s highs, however, as US government figures revealed a weekly rise in crude stockpiles,
along with an increase in gasoline inventories.

 Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil futures settlement price of $51.08 is $24.53, or 92
percent, higher.

1
 Domestic crude production was unchanged from the prior week at over 8.9 MMB/D. Last year at this
time, production stood at over 9.2 MMB/D. Total crude imports decreased from the prior week at
over 8.3 MMB/D. Imports at this time last year averaged nearly 7.8 MMB/D.

 U.S. refinery crude runs decreased from the prior week with refiners processing nearly 16.5 MMB/D.
U.S. refinery capacity utilization was down on the week at 90.7 percent. Last year at this time,
capacity use stood at 91.2 percent.

 Gasoline output decreased on the week at nearly 9.0 MMB/D. Output was nearly 9.5 MMB/D at this
time last year. Distillate output decreased from the prior week at over 4.7 MMB/D. Last year at this
time, production stood at over 4.5 MMB/D.

 Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week
period stood at about 19.3 MMB/D, up by 0.1 percent compared to the same period last year.

Transportation Fuels

On January 17, Missouri’s statewide average retail price for gasoline was $2.09 per gallon,
up 4.3 cents in the past month and up 47.0 cents in the past year.

Regular Unleaded Gasoline - Retail Prices (cents per gallon)
-01--17--17 -12--19--16 -cha-ng-e -01--19--16 -cha-ng-e
US 235.8 226.4 up 4% 191.4 up 23%
Missouri 209.1 204.8 up 2% 162.1 up 29%

Diesel Fuel - Retail Prices (cents per gallon)
-01--17--17 -12--19--16 -cha-ng-e -01--19--16 -cha-ng-e
US 258.5 252.7 up 2% 211.2 up 22%
Missouri 231.3 226.2 up 2% 181.8 up 27%

 On January 17, Missouri’s average retail price
for gasoline was $2.09 per gallon, up 4.3 cents Regular Unleaded Gasoline
in the past month.
Average Retail Prices in the US . and Missouri

300
 Missouri’s average price for diesel fuel was
over $2.31 per gallon, up 5.1 cents in the past 275
month. .§
250
'i
 Compared to last year at this time, Missouri’s c.., 225
average retail gasoline price is 47.0 cents per .I.ll
~ 200
gallon, or 29 percent, higher while the average
C
retail diesel fuel price is 49.5 cents per gallon, ~ 175
or 27 percent, higher. 150

..
125
 At nearly $2.36, the U.S. average price for ...
regular gasoline is 9.4 cents per gallon, or 4 .L0-i li ~C. "..S, 0u .0\0- i
N N
percent, higher compared to last month.
- US - MO

 The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is up 44.4 cents per gallon, or 23 percent, compared to
this time last year. In the past week, the U.S. average decreased by 0.3 cents per gallon.
2
 Gasoline imports decreased from the prior
Regular Unleaded Gasoline
week at nearly 0.6 MMB/D. Last year at this
Average Retail Prices in the U.S., Midwest,
time, imports stood at over 0.5 MMB/D. Missouri and Missouri Regions
January 17, 2017 Fuel Data in Cents per Gallon
U.S. 235.8
 Implied demand for gasoline decreased on the
week at nearly 8.1 MMB/D. Demand stood at Midwest 228.3
nearly 9.1 MMB/D at this time last year. Missouri

Central, Mo.
 In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand
has averaged nearly 8.6 MMB/D. Kansas City, Mo. 216.0
Northeast, Mo. 214.6
 U.S. gasoline supplies increased 6.0 MMB on
Northwest, Mo. 214.5
the week to 246.4 MMB. U.S. supplies are up
1.4 MMB compared to this time last year. St. Louis, Mo.

Southeast, Mo. 216.8
 Distillate stocks decreased on the week at
Southwest, Mo.
169.1 MMB and stand 4.5 MMB higher
compared to the same period last year.
Motor Gasoline

 Distillate demand increased on the week at U S. Stocks in Millions of Barrels
nearly 4.1 MMB/D. Demand stood at nearly
3.7 MMB/D at this time last year. On a four-
week average, distillate demand was slightly
lower at over 3.5 MMB/D. "'
ai
~ 2~ -ll""-\-+--+--+--4~- -+Vh--'A-+--~
 On January 17, Missouri’s average retail price Ill
6
for E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel ~ 230 +-- +---+--+--+-
containing 85 percent ethanol, was $2.00 per ~
gallon, 9.6 cents, or 4.6 percent, lower than
the average price for conventional motor
gasoline.
L0,.i ;l -:C:,,: "1C1') . 01u1 ) <0,.D ; -:C:,,: "1C1') . 01u1 )
 On January 17, Missouri’s average retail price N N
for B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent
biofuel, was $2.19 per gallon, 12.3 cents per Transportation Fuels
gallon, or 5.3 percent, lower than the average Missouri Average Retail Prices
price for conventional diesel fuel. Cents per Gallon
209,1
Regular Gasoline 204,8
 According to EIA’s latest Short Term Energy
2.1
Outlook dated January 10, 2017, U.S. regular
gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.43 - 199,5 ■Top Bar -January 17,
2017
per gallon in 2015 and $2.15 per gallon in Ethanol 85 ~ ~?,~·1
2016, are projected to average $2.38 in 2017.
219,0
Biodiesel 20 219.0
89.9
3
Natural Gas
Approximately 52 percent (1,236,651) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes. (Data updated
from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and electricity.

On January 18, 2017, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $3.30 per million
British thermal units (MMBtu), up $1.18, or 56 percent, in the past year.

Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu)
-01--18--1-7 -12--21--1-6 -cha-ng-e -01--20--1-6 -ch-an-g-e
NYMEX $3.30 $3.54 down 7% $2.12 up 56%

 The February 2017 NYMEX futures contract
Natural Gas
settled at $3.30 per MMBtu on January 18,
down 11 cents from the prior settlement. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX

 Futures are up $1.18, or 56 percent, in the past
year. ..
:I
~ $3.00
 Working gas in storage was 2,917 Bcf, 2.6
..
~
percent below the five-year average inventory
Ill
level for the week. According to EIA’s a.
"'
January 19, 2017 Weekly Natural Gas Storage
~ $2.00 +--+---t-----+-----~----+,- -+---+----+-i
Report, U.S. natural gas supplies are 431 Bcf, 0
C
or 12.9 percent, lower than last year at this
--------------+-'
time.
..
$1.00 ... ... ...
 Net withdrawals from storage totaled 243 Bcf, Lil a. ::, u a. ::, u
.0.-1 <! -, 0 <! -, 0
compared with five-year (2012–16) average N
net withdrawals of 170 Bcf and last year's net
withdrawals of 175 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks total 2,917 Bcf, which is
77 Bcf below the five-year average and 431 Bcf below last year at this time. This week’s storage
withdrawal marks the third time that weekly net withdrawals have topped the 200 Bcf mark during
the 2016–17 heating season. The substantial storage draw is related to a combination of cold weather,
increased capacity for natural gas-fired electric generation, reduced natural gas production relative to
last year, and increased natural gas export volumes.

 Average temperatures in the Lower 48 states fell 5°F on the week and averaged 32°F. Temperatures
in most regions were below seasonal norms for the period. Falling temperatures this week pushed
temperatures 1°F below the normal level for this time of year and 3°F lower than last year at this
time. Heating degree days in the Lower 48 states totaled 230, compared with 209 last year and a
normal of 225.

 According to the EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 22 percent compared with the
previous report week. The weather early last report period was extremely cold because of polar vortex
conditions, resulting in overall higher demand last period compared to this period. Power burn
declined by 22 percent week over week, industrial sector consumption decreased by 7 percent, and
residential and commercial sector consumption declined by 29 percent. Natural gas exports to Mexico
decreased 4 percent.
4