Energy and the Environment Cost-Benefit Analysis. Proceedings of a Conference Held June 23–27, 1975, Sponsored by the School of Nuclear Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, U.S.A. PDF
Preview Energy and the Environment Cost-Benefit Analysis. Proceedings of a Conference Held June 23–27, 1975, Sponsored by the School of Nuclear Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, U.S.A.
ENERGAYN DT HEE NVIRONMENT COST-BENEAFNIATL YSIS Proceedionfag Cso nferenHceel dJ une2 3-271,9 75 Sponsorbeydt heS chooolf N uclear Engineering GeorgIinas titouftT ee chnology AtlantGae,o rg3i0a3 32U .S.A. Editebdy and R.AK.a ram K.ZM.o rgan SupplemIet not ENERGY An InternatJioounranla l GEORGIAI NSTITUTOEF TECHNOLOGY SERIESI NN UCLEAR ENGINEERING PERGAMON PRESS NEW YORK TORONTO OXFORD SYDNEY BRAUNSCHWEIG PARIS I I I I I PergamPorne sOsf fices: U.S.A. PergamoPnr esIsn cM.a,x welHlo useF,a irviPeawr k, ElmsforNde,wY ork1 0523U,. S.A. U.K. PergamoPnr esLst d.H,e adingtHoinlH la llO,x forOdX 3 OBW,E ngland CANADA PergamoonfC anada, LtdQ.u,e e2n0Q'7su ayW est, Toront1o,C anada AUSTRALIA PergamoPnr es(sA ustP)t yL.t d.l9, a B oundaSrtyr eet, RushcuttBearysN, . S.W2.0 11,A ustralia FRANCE PergamoPnr esSsA RL,2 4r ued esE coles, 75240P ariCse,d e0x5 ,F rance WESTG ERMANY PergamoPnr esGsM bH,3 300B raunschwPeoisgt,f a2c9h2 3, BurgplaIt,Wz e stG ermany Copyrig©ht I 9P7e6r,g amoPnr essI,n c. LibroafCr oyn grCeastsa loigni nPgu blDiactaat ion Maine ntruyn detri tle: Energayn dt hee nvironment. (GeorgIinas titoufTt eec hnolosgeyr iienNs u clear engineer;i2 n)g I.A tomipco wer-pla-nEtnsv ironmeanstpaelc ts Congress2e.sA .t omiecn erg-yE conomiacs pec-ts Congress3e.sC .o setf fectiv-enCeosnsg resses. I.K aramR,a tiAbb raham1,9 34- IIM.o rgan, KarZli egl1e9r0,8 - IIIG.e orgiIan.s titute ofT echnoloAgtyl,a ntSac.h ooolfN ucleEanrg ineering. IV.S erieGse:o rgiIan.s titoufTt eec hnoloAgtyl,a nta. GeorgIinas titoufTt eec hnology isnen ruicelse ar engineer;i2 n.g TD!9 5.E4E4199 76 363.6 75-42470 ISBN0 -08-020644-1 AlfR ightRse serveNdo. parto ft hipsu blicatmiaoyn be reproduced, sitnoa r reedt riesvyaslt emo rt ransmittiend any foromr b y anym eans:e lecrtonice,l ectrostatic, magnetitca pem,e chanicaplh,o tocopyinrge,c ordionrg otherwiswei,t houpte rmissiionnw ritinfgr omt hep ublishers. Printeidnt heU niteSdt ateosf A merica PREFAEC Them aino bjectiveo ft he confeerncew ast he desier teost albihs mechnaisc for cots-bneefti alnyaissw hichc oulds evrea sa founadtionf ord e ciisonm aknig. The mechnaisc shopurlvodid e far maeworfkor raitonaals sess metn ofs ocietaaln de colgoicali mpatcs moafn' sp roductni oofe ner.g yAs sucthh e framewomruks ts eekt od efintehe globals calbeyswh ich costasn d benefitarse m esaurde. The pricseo ciye ptayfs or the benefito fe lcetrical powerm ustb eb rougth intos hraperf oc;u sitm ustb eq unatified. Thec onefrnecel atsedo new eeka nd wadses ignedt o bnrgti ogehterh ighly qualifineadt,ni aolyl,a ndi nternaitoanlyl knowpne pol,e tod iscuss and ex changien fmoartion twhie xectuivse and engineerfsr mo thep oweri ndustyr, withe mplyoeeosf l oca,l stat,e and feedraalg necie,sw ithe ducaotr,s twhi concernesdc inetsit,s and withp eoplew ho areg enerlaly concernewdit ht he proctteino ofm ana nd hise nvirontme.n Thec onfernece woarsgn aizeidnt os evens esisons: (1) EnergRye sources andP roejction:s AnA ssessmetn;( 2N)u lcearF isisonR eacotrsa nd the En virnomnet; (3) FossFiule aln dt heE nvirnomnet--cSipaelE mhpasiosn C oal; (4)F uison Powera nd thEen vrionmetn;( 5) Cos-tBneefiStc al;e (s)6E xperinece ofU tiliitesi nF inanincgo fN uclaerP owerP lnat;s (7) EcosstyemT oelrance Limtiso fP owerP lant Effulent.s Them aojriyt oft hep apewrass prredouceeds snetiayl alst hewye rer e ceviedf rmo thea uhtorwsi ht littlen ooc hrna g.e In faew casemsi onr editingw asm adet oe nhancec lraity.F or thesep aperasn df ora llt he quse tinosa nd answersf romt he discussoinp eirosd,s cheduleasnd deadlinesd id nota llwo confirmationo ft hee ditedp ortiosn btyh ea uhtor.s For anye rror whicmha y habveeen t huisn troudcedi nt het ext, the editortsa kfeu llr e spnosbiiilty. Thec onfernecew ass pnosroedb yt heS chooolf N ucelarE ngineenrgi, Georgai Instiutteo fT ecnholgoy. Dr. LynnE .W evae,r Dirteocro ft heS choo,l was maot ivatingf orcfeo rt hec onferencaen dt hrouhgihm tehxetn esivef a ciliietso fG eoiragT ecwhe rmea dea vailbalet ot hec onfeenrc.e Speaclit hankasr ed ue tMor s. LydiaG eselni who vecrayp albyh andeld mostd etlaiso ft he confereenc. R.A .K araamnd K.Z .M organ GerogiaI nstitteuo fT echlnooyg vii 3 SURVEOYF W ORLEDN ERGRYE SOCUESR M.K inHgu bebrt ResearchG eoyphsciits UniteSdta teGse oolgicaSulr vey Washnigtno,D .C . ABSTRATC Thep renstel arg-ecsalues eo fe nergayn dp ower bthye h umans peices repsrneetsa uniquee venitn t he bililonso fy easr ofg eolgoic hitsoyr. Furhtennorei,n m agintudem,o sto ft hed evoeplmetn haso ccurrdeudr intgh e prenstec entury. Int heU niteSdta te,s thep eakin t her ateo fp etrumo le proudctni oocucrreidn 1 97a0n dt hatf orn atulr gaasi si mminetn.T hep eak int he wolrdp roduticono fc rudoei l eixpse tcedt oo ccuart a boutt hey ear 200a0n dt hatf orc oaplr oudcitona ta bou2t1 5o0r 2 200F.o ro thers ourcse ofe nergayn dp ower, twearp ower, geohtennal powera ndt idaplow era rei n adeuqateto r elpacpeow erf romf ossfiulle s. Nuclaerp oewr, basedo nt he breederre acotra ndu tiilznigl wo-graddeep soitosf u raniaunmd t hoiru,m has a largperot entiatlh ant hef ossil fuesl,b uti ta lscoon sittuetsa large perpetualh aza.r dThe lasrtsg ouercoef e nergayva ilbalet ot hee artihs solarr adtiiaon.Th iss ourchea sa lifeexp-etcancoyf a geoglioct imes cale, isn onpolultniga ndi sl argiernm agintudet haan nyl ikelrye qruemientsb y theh umasnp eci.e s In conseuqenceo ft he larges uplpieso f aaivlbalee nreg,y tphee riod snice1 800h as nb oeneeo fa nu nrpeecdnetede xponteinailn dsutriaglr owt.h Thsi alshoa s nb aececpomaneidb y waor ldw-idee cogliocadli tsurbcae,n in cludintgha to ft he humanp opualtio.n Itc an easiyl bes een atths uhc a perioodfg rwothm ustb ee phemerailn c hraatcera nd,i nf act,i sn owa lmost over. Onea spceto ft hist rnastiino frmo as tateo fe xopnentiaglr wotht oa stateo fn ongwrtohi st hep renstea larmo veran " enercgriys i.s"A ctualyl, thew orl'dsp renstep rbolmesa reb y nmoe anusn managleeia nbt ennso fp rseent bioolgicaanld t ecnhoolgickanlwo ledge. Ther eaclr isicson forntnigu si s, theerfo,r neota ne nergcyr iissb uta cutluraclri sisD.u rintgh el asttw o centureis, weh avee volvwheadt a moutnst oa ne xopnneti-aglorwt,hw ithi ntsi tutnisob asde ont hep remsieo fa ni nedfniitceo nintutaiono fe xponnteial grwoth. Oneo ft he principaclon seuqenceosf t hec essiaotno fe xponnteail grwothw illb ea ni neviltear bevsiino ofs moeo ft het entes othfa tc ultu.r e INTRODUCTION Byn ow,i th asb ecomeg enearlyl recnoigzetdh atth e wolrd'sp renste civilizatni doiffefrunsda mnetalyl frmo all earliecriv iilzaotnsi inb oht the magnitudeo fi tso petriaons antdhe degreoefi tsd ependeonnce ene rgayn d 4 minerarles uorces- -parctuilarelnye rgfyrm o thfeo ssfiulle s. The sgniifi canec ofe nerglyie si nt hef atc that iitsi nvolveidne verythtihnagot c curosn t hee atrh- -everhyitngt hamto evs. Inf act,in t he lasatna lysi,s abouats s ucnccita sattement asc an bema de aboutte rerstriaelv etnsi st he folwlion:g Tehea rht'ss urfaicsec omposeodf t he 92n atulrlya ocucrrnig chemicaell meent,s allb uta mintuer adioactvief ractino ofwh ich obetyh e lawso f ncsoevartino and ofn onrtanustmabiliyt ofc lasscialc hemsitry. Into and outt hiossf y tsme isa contniuoufsl xu ofe ner,g iync onseuqencoef which them atericalon stuienttsu nderegioht erc ontniuouosr i ntermtitent ciruclaiton. The principaeln ergiynp utsi nttoh iss ystaemr et hree( Fig.1 ): (1) 12 174,000x 10 thermla wtats omft rhe solarrad itaino intceerptebdy t he earht'sd iaemtrcialp lnae; (2) 32x 1012t hemral wtatsc onducteda ndc on vectetdot he earht'ss ufracfer mo insied thee arht;a nd(3 ) 3 x 1012t her malw attso ft iadlp owefrro mt he combinedk inetiacn dp otentiaeln ergoyf thee arth-nm-osnou sytsem. Oft hesei nputosf t hemral power, thaftro ms olar energiyso vewhrelminglyth el aregst,e xeceidng tshuemo ft heo thert wob y a fatcoro fm oret ha5n ,000. 1 1 Solarra diation Short-wave Long-wave Tidaeln ergy I74,000xI 01w2a tts radiation radiation Dirercetf lection 5200,0x 101w2a tt(s3 0%) Tidetsi,d caulr renettsc,. 3xl01w2a tts Direccotn verstiooh ne at 82,000xI 01w2a tt(s4 7%) Evaporation. preceitpci.t ation, Storage 4000,0x 101w7a tt(s2 3%) Watearn di ce Convection Volcanoaonsdh ots prings 0.x3 101w2a tts Windsw,a vesc,o nvectainodnc ,u rrents 370x1 01w1a tts Decay Photosynthesis Storage Conduction 40xI012watts Plants Animals 32x1 01w7a tts Te rresteinaelr gy Fossfiule ls Nucleatrh,er maaln,dg ravitateinoenragly Figure1 .W orldE nergFylw osheet Oft hes olairnu pt,a bou3t0 %, etahtrhe' s alboe,di sd iretcly reflected ands cattereidnt oo uters pcae,l eavintgh ee arht ass hor-twvaelengthr aida tion; abuot4 7%i sd irectalbys obreda nd converteidnt oh ea;ta nda bou2t3 % isd issipatiendc ircutliantgh routghhe astpmhoeraen dt heo cenas,a ndi n the evaopraito,n precpiiattino and ciruclatoino fw ateri nt he hyrdologic 5 12 cycl.e Finalyl, main utef ractio,n about4 0 1x0 watts, isa bsorbedb y thel eaveso fp lantsa nds torecdh eimcally by ptrhoesc eso fp hotsoynhtesis whereyb thei norngiacs usbtance,s watera ndc arbodnix oid,e ares ynhteszied intoor ganciacr hbyodrtaesa cocrdintgot hea pproximtaee qutaino Ligth energ+y co2 + H20 � [C2H0J+ o2• Small thoiugtih s , this afctrino ist hee nergsyou rcfeo rt heb iologi calr euqirementso ft hee arht'se ntirpeop uliaontso fp lantsa nd aanli.sm Fromr adaicotvied atnigo fm eteoirte,s tahesr tonomicalc aatclyms that producetdh es olars ystiems e sitmatedt oh aveo ccurreadbo ut4 .b5i lilon yearasg oa ndm ircobiaolr ganihsamvseb ene foundi nr ocks olasda s3 2. bililon yeras. Durintghe las6t0 0m illiony easr ofg eloogic history,a mintue afcrtioonft he earht's organihsamvseb ene depostiedi ns wamsp and othero xyeng-defiiecnetn ivronmetnsu ndecron dtiionosf i ncpomlteed ecya, ande ventlulya burieudn degrr eatth incekssoefss edimetnayr mudsa nd sand. s By sseuqbuenttrn asfromatinos, theseh aveb ecmoe tehae rht'sp renstes uplpy off ossfiuell :s coa,l oila nda sscoiatperdo ucdt.s About2 million yearasg ,o acocrdintgor ecnetd isvceoire,s the easnc torosf m odermna nh adb egunt ow aluk prhitga ndt ou sep rimtiivteo los. From thattmi et ot he prseent, thiss peicesh asd isntgiusiheidt seblyfi ts invetnivneessi nt hep rgoressviec ontrolo fa ne verl-argefrra ctino oft he availbalee nergsyup ply. Fisrtb,y m eanosf t oosl andw eaopn,s thei nvetnino ofc lohting, tcheon trol offir e, tdheom esticaitono fp lantansd aanlsi m andu seo f anipmowael,r thsi controwla sp rincipalleyc oglicoali nc haarcte.r Nextf olwleodt he manipulaitono ft hei norgawnoircl di,n lcudingt he eslmtnig ofm eatlsa ndt he primitiuvsee osf t hep owero fw ind awnatde .r Suhc as atteo fd eveolpmenwtas sufficnitef ort her euqirmeentso fa ll prem-odern cliizvaitniso. hAi hgerl-veeli nudstirailzecdiv ilizioantd idn ot becmoep ossibunltei la largaenrd m orec oncnetrtaeds ourcoef e nergayn d powerb ecmaea vialbal.e Thiso ccurrwehde nt heh uges upployfe nergsytr oed int he fossil fuels wasf irstt appbeydt hem ininogf c oa,lwh ichb egana sa contniuouesnt eprrsiea bou9t c entureisa go nearN ewcastilnen orhteastE ng lan.d Exploaittino oft he secondm aojrf ossfiule-slu plpy, petorluem, began in1 857i nR omaniaa nd2 yearlsa teirn t heU nitedS tate.s Thet appingo f ane venl argesru plpyo fs toreedn er,g tyhato ft hea tmoic nluecu,sw asf irst achiveedi na contorllde manenri n1 492, andn ow the proudctoino fn uclear powefrr mo plnatsi nt he1 ,000-megwaattr aneg of pcacaiyt is in its early satgeosf d evoeplmnet. In addtiino tionc raeseedn ergsyuo rce,s energuyt iilzatni woasm akredly enhnacebdy t wot ehcnolgoicadle voeplmetnsn eart hee ndo ft hel ascten tuyr: thed evoeplmetn of itntheern al-cmobustion ienne,g utizliinpge troeulmp rod uctfso rm obilpeow er, andt he developmeonfte letcricmaela nfso rt heg en eratino andd istirbutino ofp owerf roml agre-aslcec entarlp owerp lnats. This almsadoep osbslief ort he firts time thel arg-esacleu seo fw aterp owe.r Thiss ourcoef p owerd erivferdmo thceon tmeporaryf lxu ofs olra energhya s bene inu set os moed egreseni ceR omatnmi e,s buta lways ins mallu nits- unitsr arellya rgethra an fwe hundrkeidl woatts. tWhie lecitcragle neriaotn andd isitbruitono fh ydroowepr, firts accmpolihsed atN iagaFraal lasb out 1895, progrseviseyl largheyrd roowpers tationhsa veb ene intsallde wiht capa citieusp t os veeratlh ousamnedg aawtt.s 6 ENERGFYRO MF OSSIL FULES Tot he prenstet he principaslou recso fe nergfyo ri nudstriauls ehsa ve bene thef ossfiulle s. Let ust hereforrevei we the basifca tcsc oncerning the exploitant iaondu tiilzaitono ft hesef ules. iTshc anb esbte d onbey meanosf a graphicaplr ensteaitono ft hes tatistiofca sn unalp rodutcino. WorldP rdoutcino ofC oala ndO il Figure2 showtsh ea nnuawlo lrdp roductino ofc oaaln dl ignitfer mo 1860t o1 970, andt he paropxiamter atbea ckt o1 80,0 ona n raithmteic sclae. Figuer 3s howtsh es mae daotna same ilgoarhimtics clae. Tsheig nfiiacnec oft he lattperre snetatni iost hats traihgt-nleis egmetns othfe grwothc urev indicapteer iodosf s taedye xponentigarlwo thi nt her atoef p roudctino. Annuals attisitcso fc oal upcrtooidne alriert han1 860a red ifcfuitl to assmbel,e but mf irnotemrittnete arlierre coridtsc anb ee stiamtetdha tf rmo theb eignninogfc oamli ninagbo utt he1 2thc enturyA .Du.nt il1 80,0 the averaggrewo thr atoef p roductionm usth aveb ene about2 %p ery ear,w ith an averadgoeu lbingp erioodf a bou3t5 y ear.s Durintghe 8c enturietso 1 860 iti se stmaitedt hta cuumltaivper oducitona moutnedt oa bout7 x1 03 metric 9 tons. By1 97,0 cuulmavteip roudctoinr eaechd1 40 x1 0metritcon s. Henec, the coalm iendd urintgh e1 10y-eapre rdi ofrom1 860t o1 97w0a sa pproxiamtely 19t mies that otfh ep reecdnig8 centurie.s Thec oal upcreodddu rintgh e lats 30y-eapr eriofdr mo 1940 t1o9 7w0a sa pproxiamtely equalt ot hatp ro ducedd urinagl lp recedhiinstgo yr. Ther atoef g rwotho fc oaplr odutcino cabne m orec learlsye ne frmo the smeiolgatrhimicp lotntgio fF igur3e .T hes traihgt-nleis egmenotf tphreo dutcino curvfer mo 1860t oW orldW arI inidcatae ss teadyex peonntiailn craeseo f trhate eo fp roudctino durintgh si perioadt a bout4 4.%p ery ea,r witha doublnigp erioodf1 6y ear.s Bewtene the begnininogf W olrdW arI andt he enodfW olrdW arI I,t heg rwoth treas lwoedd own toa bou0t.7 5%p er yeaarn da doulbnigp erioodf9 3y ear.s Finally, afteWro lrdW arI Ia more raipdg rwothr atoef 3 .65%p ery eaarn da doulbingp erioofd1 9.8y earwsa s resuemd. Fiugre4 swhs,o ona na rtihmteic lse,c tahe annula worldc rude-iolp ro dutcino fro1m 880t o1 97.0 Fiugre5 showtsh es amed atpal ottesdme ilgoa rithmcially.A ftera slightlyh ihgeri nitailg rowthr at,e worldp etrloeum proudctino from1 890t o1 97h0a s haa sdte adeyx ponnteiailnc raesea ta n averargaet oef 6 .49%a nda dobulnigp erioodf .1009e ar.s Cuumlaitvew orld produtcino ofc rudoei lt o1 97a0m onutetdo 2 33x 10 barrse.lO ft his, the fisrth alrfe uqiredt he1 03-yeaprer iofdro m1 857t o1 960t op roudc,e the secondh alfo nlyth e1 0y-eapr erido from1 96t0o 1 97.0 Whenc oails m easureidn m etritcon sa ndo ili nU .S4.2 -agllno barerl,s a direcctomp arisno bewtene coaaln do ilc annotb em ad.e Such comap arsino can bem ad,e howerv,eb ym eanosf t hee nergcyo netntso ft het wof ulesa s detmeirnebdy t heirr epsetcivhee atso f mcbuostoin. Thsi iss howni nF iugre 12 6,w heret he energpyr oudcepde r yeaerxp risesse di np oweru nitso f1 0 the l watt.s Frmo thisi ti ss ene thatu ntila fte1r90 0t he energcyon rma tributebdy c rudoei lw asb arye lsignifcianta sc moparewdi ht thta ofc oa.l By1 970h,ow evre,t hee nergfyrm o crudeo ilh adi ncreasteod5 6%o ft hta from coaaln do il combine.d Wernea turgaals a ndn ataurl-glaisu qidsa lsot ob e 7 3000 j 2500 ".'.:' 2000 .('.'"' .§ 0 "" ·c Qj "'E 8 1500 ..... v I-7V � 500 _v o-----------.-.--- --J 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Years Figure2 .W olrdP roudcitono fC oala ndL ingite(Hu bber,t 1969, Fig.8 .1) / ,,...',' ,'/- ,,,3 J56p ercpeeynret a r l1 9.8 years - - 100r0- , -----t-- -------r-- 5 l- 5 c �g so or-r-- --- � i i , 100, __ ___,_ ___ _t_ ___ L_ __ ,__ __ ___c __ -L_ __ _,. l8b0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 YEARS Figur3e .W orldP roudctino ofC oaaln dL ingite( smeiolgraihtmci sclae) (Hubbret, 1917,F ig.4 ) 8 incldue,d tehne ergfyr opme torluemf luidwsou ldr epesrneta bout tw-ohtirds oft he toatl. 10 -;::- :::- .. j5 8 .0 "' 0- � t'.' c 6 � 0 :> � Q.. 4 2 oL.......e::.:::b..=::::b::::=:::::L===-L_�_L_�_J_�--1��1-�-1-�_J 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Years Figur4e .W olrdP roudcitono fC rudeO il( Hbubret, 196,9 Fi.g 8.)2 9 �� ��-'-� �-'-� ��L-� -L-� ��- -L� �- 1.0 _JL-� w 1-- < o::� �_ z '- o-;!'.0 1--.0 g� ��L-� o� oa:-: �v n. v .L� .. 0.1 ��. -'� -Ll�- l- 0.01 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEARS Figur5e .W orld Prodtuicno ofC rudeO il (semilogatrhimics cael) (Huebrb,t 197,1 Fig.6 )
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