Energy 2000–2020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses

315 Pages·1984·8.991 MB·English

by  J.-R. Frisch (auth.), J.-R. Frisch (eds.)

ENERGY 2000-2020:
WORLD PROSPECTS AND
REGIONAL STRESSES
WORLD ENERGY CONFERENCE
Conservation Commission
ENERGY 2000-2020:
WORLD PROSPECTS AND
REGIONAL STRESSES
Report co-ordinated and edited by J.-R. Frisch
Chairman of the Regional Energy Balances Study
Translated by P. Ruttley
Graham & Trotman
First published in 1983 by:
Graham & Trotman Ltd
Sterling House
66 Wilton Road
London SWI V 1DE
UK
© World Energy Conference, 1983
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1983
ISBN-13 :978-94-010-8981-4 e-ISBN-13 :978-94-009-5624-7
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-5624-7
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers.
Typeset in Great Britain by Herts Typesetting Services Limited, Hertford
CONTENTS
PREFACE xi
FOREWORD xiii
ABBREVIATIONS xvii
SUMMARY OF THE STUDY xix
I. Situation of the Survey xxi
II. Methodology xxiii
II I. Development of the World Balance xxvi
IV. North-South Dynamics xxix
V. Regional Prospects xxxiii
VI. General Observations Ii
VII. List of Countries Iv
PART 1 PRESENTATION AND ANAL YSIS OF
RESULTS Ixix
Chapter 1 SITUATION OF THE STUDY 3
1.1 Historical Introduction 3
1.2 Specificity 4
1.3 The Objective of the Study 6
1.3.1 Formulation of the objective 6
1.3.2 Forecasting procedure 6
1.3.3 Means 7
1.4 Preliminary Remarks 7
1.5 Instructions for Use 9
v
vi CONTENTS
Chapter II GLOBAL EQUILIBRIUM AND NORTH-SOUTH
DYNAMICS 11
2.1 The Fundamental Factors: Demography and
Economic Growth 11
2.1.1 Demography 11
2.1.2 Economic growth 12
2.2 World Energy Consumption 13
2.2.1 Consumption totals and consumption per
capita 13
2.2.2 The dynamics of North-South 14
consumption
2.2.3 Commercial and non-commercial 16
consumptions 18
2.3 Evolution of Supplies 19
2.3.1 World equilibrium 19
2.3.2 The industrialised nations 21
2.3.3 The Third World 22
2.4 World Energy Production 25
2.4.1 Total production 25
2.4.2 North-South production structures 27
2.5 Interregional Trade at a Global Level 28
2.5.1 The world market 29
2.5.2 The trade in fuels 30
Chapter III EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL ENERGY
BALANCES 33
3.1 North America 33
3.1.1 Demographic and economic environment 33
3.1.2 Energy consumption 34
3.1.3 Supply pattern 35
3.1.4 Energy production 37
3.1.5 Interregional energy trade 38
3.2 Western Europe 39
3.2.1 Demographic and economic environment 39
3.2.2 Energy consumption 40
3.2.3 Supply pattern 41
3.2.4 Energy production 42
3.2.5 Interregional energy trade 43
3.3 Industrialised Countries of the Pacific 44
3.3.1 Demographic and economic environment 44
3.3.2 Energy consumption 45
3.3.3 Supply pattern 46
3.3.4 Energy production 47
3.3.5 Interregional energy trade 48
CONTENTS vii
3.4 Eastern Europe 49
3.4.1 Demographic and economic environment 49
3.4.2 Energy consumption 50
3.4.3 Supply pattern 51
3.4.4 Energy production 54
3.4.5 Interregional energy trade 54
3.5 North Africa and Middle East 56
3.5.1 Demographic and economic environment 56
3.5.2 Energy consumption 57
3.5.3 Supply pattern 59
3.5.4 Energy production 60
3.5.5 Interregional energy trade 61
3.6 Africa South of the Sahara 62
3.6A 81ack Africa: Africa South of the Sahara
without South Africa 63
3.6.1 A Demographic and economic
environment 63
3.6.2A Energy consumption 64
3.6.3A Supply pattern 65
3.6.4A Energy production 67
3.6.5A Interregional energy trade 67
3.68 Africa South of the Sahara 68
3.6.18 Demographic and economic
environment 69
3.6.28 Energy consumption 69
3.6.38 Supply pattern 70
3.6.48 Energy production 71
3.6.58 Interregional energy trade 72
3.7 South Asia 73
3.7.1 Demographic and economic environment 73
3.7.2 Energy consumption 74
3.7.3 Supply pattern 75
3.7.4 Energy production 76
3.7.5 Interregional energy trade 77
3.8 South-East Asia 78
3.8.1 Demographic and economic environment 78
3.8.2 Energy consumption 79
3.8.3 Supply pattern 80
3.8.4 Energy production 82
3.8.5 Interregional energy trade 83
3.9 Centrally Planned Asian Countries 84
3.9.1 Demographic and economic environment 84
3.9.2 Energy consumption 85
3.9.3 Supply pattern 87
3.9.4 Energy production 89
3.9.5 Interregional energy trade 90
viii CONTENTS
3.10 Latin America 91
3.10.1 Demographic and economic
environment 91
3.10.2 Energy consumption 92
3.10.3 Supply pattern 93
3.10.4 Energy production 95
3.10.5 Interregional energy trade 96
Chapter IV GENERAL GUIDELINES 99
4.1 Overall Energy Context and Long-term
Perspectives 99
4.2 The Readaptation of the World Energy System 101
4.3 The Essential Regional Questions 103
4.4 Differentiated Evolutions of the Regions 104
4.5 Towards a Tripolar World 106
4.6 The Energy Future in Perspective 108
PART II METHODOLOGY 115
Chapter V METHODOLOGY 117
5.1 Regionalisation 117
5.2 Period of Reference 118
5.3 The Forecasting Horizon 118
5.4 Field of Study 119
5.5 Forecasting Method 120
5.6 Forecasting Scenarios 124
5.7 Units and Equivalences 126
PART III ANNEXES 129
Annex 1 Composition of the Regions 131
Annex 2 Composition of the Regional Working teams (RWT) 137
Annex 3 Meetings of the Regional Working Teams 140
Annex 4 Units - Equivalences 141
Annex 5 Reference Base 1960-1978 149
Annex 6 Demographic Forecasts 162
Annex 7 Economic Forecasts 164
Annex 8 Regional File 166
Annex 9 First Stage of Energy Forecasts (Centralised Stage) 179
Annex 10 Final stage of Energy Forecasts (Decentralised
Stage) 190
CONTENTS ix
Annex 11 Energy Consumptions Forecasts 202
Annex 12 Energy Production Forecasts 212
Annex 13 Energy Exchanges Forecasts 219
Annex 14 Balance Factor 225
Annexes
15-19 Regional Structures: Energy
Dependences-Elasticities-Intensities 231
Annex 20 Analysis of Differences Between the Two Stages of
the Study 239
Annex 21 Comparison of the "Munich" and "New Delhi"
Studies 244
Annex 22 Annual World and Cumulative 1978-2000-2020
Consumptions 252
Annex 23 Reserves of Non-renewable Energy Sources 254
Annex 24 Bibliography 255
Annex 25 Minutes of Round Table NO.5
Energy 2000-2020: Supply, Demand and Regional
Stresses 257
PREFACE
In 1977, at the Xth World Energy Conference in Istanbul, the Conservation
Commission presented an initial global study of future trends in energy
supply and demand up to 2020. This pioneering work was the origin of large
scale global energy surveys.
At the Munich Conference of 1980, the Commission made more thorough
analyses by concentrating particularly on the specific behaviour of Third
World Nations.
Today, in New Delhi, in keeping with the tradition established by its
previous surveys, the Commission is developing a new global study, the
originality of which lies in the procedure adopted in its production.
Rejecting centralised forecasting models which have almost exclusively
dominated the minds of researchers, the Commission recommended a decen
tralised method of approach which was totally different both in its basic
principles and in its implementation. Essentially, the inhabitants of the
regions were to be given the opportunity of expressing their own views on
their energy future, rather than imposing on them an external model and
therefore external results.
The World Energy Conference was certainly the organ most suited to
promote and bring this approach to a successful conclusion. It was an
approach which permitted a significant strengthening of regional long-term
analytical thinking to occur. In addition, it offers an overview of energy
constraints and resources of the ten great regions of the world which is, if not
more correct, at least nearer to the right direction. Beyond the data presented
by the study, its main value in fact lies in a better understanding of the real
problems.
We must remain more vigilant than ever, during the temporary period of
calm which we are living through: although the profitability of short term oil
trade is attractive, the thorny realities of the future neverthele-ss subsist and
will surface again as soon as there is a recovery of economic activity.
Oil demand will not decrease, especially under the pressure of the Third
World. Coal and nuclear power will experience massive demand in all the
industrialised nations. The implementation of vigorous programmes for the
rational use of energy also remains apriority.
This global study brings a new perspective on these major challenges. It is
all the more striking that it broadly confirms most of the previous analyses.
This study could not have seen the light of day without the contribution
xi
xii PREFACE
and the energy of the fifty experts who agreed to contribute to it. It is they
who marked the outlines of the future which we must face without illusion or
weakness.
By illuminating an essential aspect of the future, this study gives decision
makers and politicians the means of substantially increasing their ability to
deal with inevitable long-term uncertainties. If it succeeds in making them
aware of these circumstances, which appear more remote but yet are crucial
for the stability of the world system, then it will have achieved its purpose.
Marcel Boiteux,
President of the Conservation Commission,
World Enery Conference.