Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns

345 Pages·2000·7.22 MB·english

by  Thomas N. Bulkowski

Encyclopedia
of
Chart Patterns
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Thomas N. Bulkowski
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New York • Chichester . Weinheim • Brisbane • Singapore • Toronto
o hw ,sctnerap oym oTntedaimemnoh ym uretfa neeve em devol ot
rocket set the lawn on fire, and to my four-legged best friend,
Rusty, who saved my life; it grieves me that I couldn't save yours.
This book is printed on acid-free paper. ©
Copyright © 2000 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
-s 7aN5m9o1.h, T ,ikswokluB
Encyclopedia of chart patterns / Thomas N. Bulkowski.
p. cm.—(Wiley trading advantage)
.xedni sedulcnI
ISBN 0-471-29525-6 (alk. paper)
1. Stocks—Charts, diagrams, etc. 2. Commodities—Charts,
di.seiraeS .IIg .eltiTr .I .asisylanma lacinhceTs .3 .,cte
HG4638.B85 2000
332.63722—dc21 99-15789
.aciremA fo setatS detinU eht ni detnirP
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Preface
When I was a little tyke I decided the easiest way to riches was to play the stock
market. It was, after all, a level playing field, a zero-sum game with somebody
winning and somebody losing (hint: The winner is always the broker). All one
had to do to win was pick the stocks that went up and avoid the stocks that went
down. Easy.
na htiw ytisrevinU esucaryS morf detaudarg I nehw dnim ni siht tpek I
engineering degree and showed up early for my first professional job. Eacl
morning I cracked open the newspaper and plotted my stock picks on a piec\
of paper taped to the wall. Bob, my office mate, used the same newspaper to
-nemadnuf gnitsuahxe dna tcirts gnisu snoitceles ym esohc I .skcots sih tceles
tal research, but Bob simply closed his eyes, twirled his hand around, and
devomer dna seye sih denepo eh nehW .repapswen eht otni regnif sih degnulp
.kcip rehtona decnuonna eh ,regnif sih
After several months of tracking both our selections, I made a startling
rat eht gnitaeb erew snoitcel .edBse mmoaoedbrnca' sgr nitteg saw I :yrevocsid
out of my carefully researched choices. I also discovered something else: I was
learning a lot by paper trading.
With the hesitancy and distrust inherited from my parents, I studied two
a denepo I :esahcrup tsrif dna noitceles lanif ym gnikam erofeb smrif nezod
money market account. The timing was excellent; I was earning over 17% on
my cash. At first glance, the return might imply a very risky investment but it
was not. The prime rate was, after all, at 21%.
Flush with success, I gathered my courage and opened a brokerage
gnimit eht ,niagA .devas I seinnep wef eht htiw gnitsevni nageb dna tnuocca
was excellent as I caught the beginning of a major bull market. I bought a stock
o t r oag4e nti3 deh6c!ta/w 2 dlna/ i—.rmeggab-nety tsrif
yM .deneppah tahw redisnoc ,ysae saw gnihtyreve taht kniht uoy tseL
stock portfolio was growing by leaps and bounds, but my professional career
naht netfo erom sreerac gnihctiws retfA .esrow eht rof nrut a ekat ot tuoba saw
y llanifc dluoc I yanapmoc al htiw bloj a ta dednal I ,timda ot ekil semitemos I
ecaferP iiiv Preface ix
home—a job that would last a lifetime, or so I thought. Almost six months after The chapters are arranged alphabetically, making it easy to locate the
my 10-year anniversary with the company, I received a letter from the chair- chart pattern of interest. Within each chapter, you are first greeted with a
drawrof dekool dna ynapmoc eht htiw edaced ym no em detalutargnoc eH .nam ,nehT .noissucsid trohs a yb dewollof sgnidnif rojam eht fo "tohspanS stluseR"
to even more success for me in the coming years. Six weeks later "I,s ewnileadisuG l naoiitadci fiotnfedfI." .nrettap trahc eht erolpxe ot uoy setivni "ruoT" a
daf h3o d6eag,h1a eht ta ,taht dediced dna noitautis eht fo kcots koot I gynoiy-•f-irev dna gnitceles ekam ,noissucsid htped-ni dna mrof elbat htob ni
seno eht era eW .noilliM gnissiM ehT em ekil syug mret srepapsweN .hguone d n"aId "erunotTif"ic eahtti ,snrettap trahc relpmis roF .reisae seciohc
who, for whatever reason, leave their jobs and decide not to go back into the .noitces eno otni denibmoc neeb evah "senilediuG
workforce. We retire. Everyonea, a,snedk Ia tmsieman eehvte froyo nneo i(twaritohl pthxee n noata tbuleo hexticwep e-telpmoc eb dluow krow oN
tion of my cousin Mary Ann—bless her heart), thinks we are nuts. They are the "Focus on Failures" section dissects the cause of failures. The all-import;
!esruoc fo ,thgir "Statistics" section follows. Once you can identify a chart pattern, know how it
For the longest time, I have been fascinated with technical analysis of is likely to perform, and are alert to possible failure indications, how do you
stocks. In the early years, I considered the little squiggles to be nothing short trade it? That is what the "Trading Tactics" and "Sample Trade" sections
-rih erew sesuoh egarekorb rojam eht yhw ot sa suoiruc saw I ,llitS .oodoov fo explore. - / '-'.> -
ing technical analysts in droves. But I did not dare take my eye off the funda- If you have ever worked on a car or done some woodworking, then you
I nehT .slacinhcet eht tuoba gnihtyna wonk ton did I esuaceb ylpmis slatnem u woYou .lbdoj eht rof loot thgir eht gnitceles fo ecnatropmi eht ezingocer lliw
discovered Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine. During my not want to use a flat-head screwdriver when a Phillips works better. Both do
.seussi kcab daer dna yrarbil eht ot nwod rotavele eht erkeavt idrlduowwe Ir c,rsu oah htocnnu lsi ti semitemoS .elbaegnahcretni yldrah era yeht tub boj eht
Although I had seen chart patterns in the stocks I bought, I never really you should be using, but a chisel. Selecting the proper tools and knowing how
attached much significance to them. As some of my selections went sour, I eht tros ot gnipleh ,taht ekil tol a si koob sihT .elttab eht flah si meht esu ot
t yaht hguone gninethgirf si nrettapsyawla slatnemadnuf ehT .tcepser ertom htiw snrettapr trahc weiv ot nagebahc a semitemoS .ffahc eht morf taehw
looked good, but the technsiic aelksa mwe nrea cs iugonya ltianhgt ae dtarretn tds ecbh eahntg e,s ejumsitt aresh It ow taAs .stiforp ekat ot tnaw lliw
about to pull the trigger. The stocks I bought either lost money outright or I none at all.
sold them too soon and cut my-r parmof kitcso sths oerht.t ni yenom ekam ot dedeen ecneirepxe eht uoy evig tonnacI
Perhaps this has happened to you. You do your fundamental research on ket using chart patterns. I can only give you the tools and say, "Go to work on
,esrow nevE .erom ro raey a rof erehwon og ti hctaw ot ylno ti yub neht ,kcots a rof skrow taht elyts gnidart a gnipoleved ni pets tsrif eht si tahT ".tsrif repap
saw rewsna eht trahc eht ta dekool uoy daH .selbmut kcots eht ,ni teg uoy ecno you, one you are comfortable with, one that improves as you do. If you review
always there. Prices pierced a trendline, a head-and-shoulders topa naahpt eproem asir reedrdo sosolu-ptots a yhw dnatsrednu lliw uoy ,sedart repap ruoy
of nowhere, the relative streng-ptuhs itncdideexr ps oigt nyatilleidba a rnu ooyv eevrobropumgih ltli wsi tuuoaYti o.lno.o tI nlufesu a si tI :live yrassecen
won yub a taht gnimaercs erew srotacidni lacinhcet fo rebmun yna ,trohs dna spots ruoy nethgit ot uoy wolla ,nrut ni ,lliw taht slevel ecnatsiser dna trop
ruoy dah uoy esuaceb sngis eht was reven uoy tuB .trihs ruoy uoy tsoc dluow .elpmiS .edir stiforp ruoy tel dna ,trohs sessol ruoy tuc ,pot eht raen tuo teg
.desolc seye You will discover why the measure rule is so important, especially in tur-
You are not alone; I did the same thing for years. I eventually got so frus- bulent markets. Unless you are willing to suffer a 20% drawdown, you will
trated with the performance of my st-otscekb sae elebc ytaiomn ks otohba ts iIh td neic nidetefdo toos ddeot omuqy noiwagn egareva eht yhw dnatsrednu
research on technical analysis. I went to the library and read the same thing in case scenario and will come to grips with why you are still struggling to make
tahW .emit eht fo tsom skrow noitamrof sredluohs-dna-daeh A :skoob ynam -aid sevol dneirflrig ruoy taht revocsid yam uoY .niag ylekil tsom eht evoba ti
fo %09 ro emit eht fol u%5f1s seccus era yeht naem ti seoD ?naem taht seod drow enO .yap meht ekam ot mees tonnac uoy ,nrettap trahc a sa tub ,sdnom
-lod denrae drah ym ksir ot gnilliw ton saw I .rewsna eht dah eno oN ?emit eht .ecneirepxE .lla ti syas
lars on simple bromides. As an engineer I wanted hard, cold facts, not fuzzy .kcul dooG
.koob siht etorw I ,oS .sedutitalp
At the back of the book is an Index of Chart Patterns. If you suspect your THOMAS N. BULKOWSKI
fo xednI eht ,ti llac ot tahw wonk ton od tub nrettap trahc a gnikam si kcots December 1999
Chart Patterns is the first place to look. Page numbers beside each pattern
direct you to the associated chapter.
Acknowledgments
noitcerid eht sretla taht sneppah gnihtemos ,efil ruoy ni semit lareves spahreP
I nbehwr aogas srhaeyl- lbyaurse ves em ot deneppah tahT .gnikat si efil ruoy
ot hcuM .seitidommoC dna skcotS fo sisylanA lacinhceT ot elcitra tsrif ym dettim
my surprise and delight, the editor at the time, Thorn Hartle, published the
work. That single event sent me spinning off in a new direction.
Nearly a dozen articles later, I called Thorn and chatted with him about
an idea for a book. He steered me to Pamela van Giessen, senior editor for
ot aedi ym fo liam-e elgnis A .koob siht fo rehsilbup ,.cnI ,snoSn W h&iloey J
her put a new set of wheels in motion.
Simple words cannot express my thanks to these two outstanding indi-
viduals. Of course, there are many others such as my younger brother, Jim, the
troppus ym demrof ,dnah gnipleh a em evag semitemos taht seoreh gnusnu
.nettogrof ton era yehT .ttub eht ni kcik tfiws ,doog a em evag ro ,puorg
T. N. B.
Contents
1
Introduction
smottoB gninedaorB 1 12
2 Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending 27
3 Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending 40
spoT gninedaorB 4 5;
5 Broadening Wedges, Ascending 72
gnidnecseD ,segdeW gninedaorB 6 87
7 BsummottpoB-a lnasdr-eRveuRn 100
8 Bump-and-Run Reversal Tops 119
9 Cup with Handle 135
ecnuoB taC-daeD 01 153
11 Diamond Tops and Bottoms 165
12 Double Bottoms 182
spoT elbuoD 31 197
14 Flags and Pennants 213
thgiT dna hgiH ,sgalF 51 227
16 Gaps 240
17 Hanging Man 252
18 Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms 262
19 Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex 276
spoT sredluohS-dna-daeH 02 290
xiv Contents
21 Head-and-Shoulders Tops, Complex 305
22 Horn Bottoms 320
23 Horn Tops 332
syaD edisnI 42 343 Encyclopedia
25 Island Reversals 356
of
nwoD evoM derusaeM 62 369
pU evoM derusaeM 72 382
Chart Patterns
28 One-Day Reversals 394
syaD edistuO 92 404
smottoB epiP 03 417
31 Pipe Tops 429
smottoB elgnatceR 23 439
33 Rectangle Tops 453
34 Rounding Bottoms 466
spoT gnidnuoR 53 477
36 Scallops, Ascending and Descending 487
37 Shark-32 501
38 Triangles, Ascending 511
39 Triangles, Descending 529
40 Triangles, Symmetrical Bottoms 545
spoT lacirtemmyS ,selgnairT 14 560
42 Triple Bottoms 576
spoT elpirT 34 590
44 Wedges, Falling 603
gnisiR ,segdeW 54 617
46 Weekly Reversals, Downside 631
y RlkeeeveWedrissap 7Uls4, 642
Statistics Summary 654
Index of Chart Patterns 663
xednI tcejbuS 669
Introduction
Jim is struggling.
si nwot ssorca rotitepmoc sih dna serotsrepuS BCJ fo renwo eht si eH
beating him up; there is blood all over Jim's ledger. He decides it is time to take
off the gloves: JCB goes public. He uses the money from the initial public
offering to buy his competitor and add a few more stores around town.
With a growing sales base, Jim's clout allows him to negotiate lower
prices for the office supplies he is retailing. He passes on part of the savings to
kcab stiforp eht swolp dna ,nediw snigram sih gnihctaw elihw ,sremotsuc sih
into building more stores.
-arepo eht dnapxe ot snalp sih fo mih sllet dna ,moT ,dneirf sih sllac miJ
tion statewide. They chat for a while and exchange business tactics on how best
to manage the expansion. When Tom gets off the phone, he decides to con-
:gniht emas eht sees dna serots lareves stisiv eH .BCJ no hcraeser nwo sih tcud
senil dna ,strac gnippohs lluf htiw dnuora gniltsub elpoep ,stol gnikrap dekcap
eht fo esnes a teg ot sremotsuc wef a snoitseuq eH .sretnuoc tuokcehc eht ta
rieht daolnu yeht sa sreilppus htiw stahc nevw seto eerfeh sa , tA .scihpargomed
e fhindtann cfaioal s sisylana hguoroht a seod eh ,eciffo eht ta kcaB .seraw
looks at the competition. Everything checks out so he orders his trading part-
n ah1t re0hg.ih on ta kcots eht yub ot sren
When news of the expansion plan hits the wires, the Street panics. It is,
after all, a soft economy and expanding willy-nilly when a recession looms is
daft, maybe even criminal, according to them. The stock drops below 10 and
tuohtiw nac yeht sa hcum sa yub ylteiuq yehT .evom sti sekam werc s'moT
do nta p 1,u2 1k1 cnaebh ,ts eog tI .yawyna sesir kcots ehT .noicipsus gnisiar
rounds over at 13 before heading back down. i
2 Introduction The Database 3
Several months goe cbiyff oan ldle tsh eo te yctoinnoumtroicp poou telohot ktu ios baas dbeletiackx ea ss ie veeHr. .TtehneretnI eht dellac tpecnoc
stock eases down to 9. After Tom checks in with Jim for the latest public news, supplies on-line without the need for bricks and mortar. There is some risk
Tom's team buys more. It is an easy score because investors are willing to because the on-line community is in its infancy, but Jim predicts it will quickly
dump the stock especially as year-end tax selling approaches. s i moT i.dnapxme pre-ysub noos ssi dna kroweemoh sih dgniod strats ,eh os
era yeht ;BCJ rof srebmun selas eht sesaeler ynapmoc eht retal skeew xiS ing the stock again.
better than expected. The stock rises 15% in minutes and closes at 10%. And
reven saw ymonoce eht raelc s'ti ,retal shtnom xiS .sretrats rof tsuj si taht
ehT .daeha semit moob sees enoyreve dna noissecer a gniretne fo regnad ni
Investment Footprints
stock hits 20.
Years go by, the stock splits a few times, and the holiday season looms.
dluohs uoy ,serotsrepuS BCJ fo noitca ecirp eht dnim ruoy ni erutcip uoy fI
Tom interviews a handful of customers leaving JCB Superstores and discovers
tac-daed a dna ,pot elbuod a ,mottob elbuod a :snrettap trahc eerht ezingocer
that they are all complaining about the same thing: The advertised goods are
bounce. To knowledgeable investors, chart patterns are not squiggles on a
missing. Tom investigates further and discovers a massive distribution prob-
price chart; they are the footprints of the smart money. The footprints are all
lem, right at the height of the selling season. JCB has overextended itself;
.sehcir retaerg dna retaerg htiw stekcop rieht enil yeht sa wollof ot deen yeht
erots wen eno fo noitidda eht troppus ot ereht ton ylpmis si erutcurtsarfni eht
To others, such as Tom, it is hard work and pavement pounding before they
each week.
yehT .stnirptoof eht gnikam seno eht era yehT .kcots a ni noitisop a ekat erad
Tom realizes it is time to sell. He tells his trading department to dump
nac e ehgnt aofoym nsaeel eu—mr eahgat gnittes si taht yenom trams eht era
the stock immediately but for no less than 2814. They liquidate about a third of
.gnitsevni dellac si tI .yalp
their large holdings before driving the stock down below the minimum.
Whether you choose to use technical analysis or fundamental analysis in
Since it is the holidays, everyone seems to be in a buying mood. Novice
ot syap tI .gnikniht si tekram eht tahw wonk ot syap ti ,snoisiced gnidart ruoy
egarekorb rojam ehT .ecirp niagrab a redisnoc yeht tahw ta ni pmuj srotsevni
look for the footprints. Those footprints may well steer you away from a cliff
houses climb aboard and tout the stock, but Tom knows better. When the
era stnirptoof esoht ekam taht teef ehT .emit ni tsuj kcots a fo tuo uoy teg dna
rieht fo redniamer eht lles srentrap gnidart sih ,hgih dlo sti ot srevocer kcots
the same ones that will kick you in the pants, waking you up to a promising
holdings. The stock tops out and rounds over. During the next month and a
investment opportunity.
hsur a eb ot raeppa ton seod erehT .yllausac ,ylwols ,nwod stfird kcots eht ,flah
This book gives you the tools to spot the footprints, where they predict
for the exits—just a slow trickle as the smart money quietly folds up shop.
the stock is heading, how far it will travel, and how reliable the trail you are fol-
Then news of poor holiday sales leaks out. There is a rumor about distri-
era yeht tuB .od ylerar sloot ;hcir uoy ekam ton lliw sloot ehT .si yllaer gniwol
egarekorB .smelborp wolf hsac dna ,sekatsim gnisidnahcrem ,smelborp noitub
.ylesiw meht esU .htlaew retaerg ot stnemurtsni
ot stneilc rieht esivda won kcots eht gnituot erew erofeb skeew ylno taht smrif
sell. The stock plummets 39% overnight.
One or two analysts say the stock is oversold; it is a bargain and investors
should add to their positions. Many bottom fishers follow their brokers' rec- The Database
ommendation and buy the stock. Big mistake. The buying enthusiasm pushes
the price up briefly before a new round of selling takes hold. Each day the stock If you want to discover how much you do not know about a chart formation,
nI .dnas fo eltsac a tsniaga gnihsaw sevaw ekil yawa gnilbbin ,rewol tib a spord try teaching a computer to recognize one. I spent several months doing that
.%03 rehtona nwod si kcots eht ,emit 'shtnom 2 llew gol dna ,ezylana ,etacol em depleh margorp ehT .koob siht rof gniraperp
tsTuhje ,fnolilaorwbin ygm qu raort esre JyCeB ySmup reorsfto eretsu taintsnbouunsc eas ttohant seiar tnIin g.ssn woiiltlamrof 000,51 revo
likely come in well below consensus estimates. The stock drops another 15%. another tool to augment my talent. Consider it another set of dispassionate
Th aeb c usom'mtpIp- aa.nnedyr- eish tr yeinngo to s ciohrrte tcat thkeo doisLtri"b u,tgionni pyraosb ledmn,a b uut oit yis ngont siogmdeu-n dneirf a ,seye
eht no etartnecnoc ot dna gnidnapxe pots ot ediced yehT .dexif ylisae gniht run reversal."
.esab erots gnitsixe rieht fo ytilibatiforp When the starting gun went off, I selected 500 stocks, all with durations
rof talf neeb sah god ehT .trahc kcots eht pu sllup moT ,retal sraey owT of 5 years (each from mid-1991 to mid-1996) of daily price data on which to col-
so long it looks as if its heartbeat hhtiaws ssetompapne rda.i liHmea fc danllas sJliamir tasunddn ic hseantos J awbooDu t0 t3h eeht dedulcni I .scitsitats tcel
outlook for JCB Superstores. Jim gushes enthusiastically about a new retailing varying market capitalizations. Stocks included in the study needed a heartbeat