AN EXIT STRATEGY NOT A WINNING STRATEGY? INTELLIGENCE LESSONS FROM THE BRITISH ‘EMERGENCY’ IN SOUTH ARABIA, 1963-67 A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree MASTER OF MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE Art of War by STEPHEN ANDREW CAMPBELL, MAJOR, BRITISH ARMY M.A., University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland, 2001 Fort Leavenworth, Kansas 2012-02 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 14-12-2012 Master’s Thesis FEB 2012–DEC 2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER An Exit Strategy not a Winning Strategy? Intelligence Lessons 5b. GRANT NUMBER From the British ‘Emergency’ in South Arabia, 1963-67 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER Major Stephen Andrew Campbell 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORG REPORT U.S. Army Command and General Staff College NUMBER ATTN: ATZL-SWD-GD Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027-2301 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The British Army is often praised for a particular skill in small wars or counter-insurgencies (COIN). Some attribute this to the special challenge of maintaining order across a global empire with a relatively small force; others cite the intellectual inheritance of great British military theorists and an inherent flexibility present within a small army that is used to adapting to overcome adversity. However, this view is challenged by recent scholars who suggest the UK record in COIN is not one of universal success. This thesis examines a less prominent British campaign–the war in South Arabia or “Aden Emergency.” It was fought against a complex local enemy supported by a strong regional power in the Middle East with a public timeline for British withdrawal. This thesis focuses on the performance of the intelligence organization in South Arabia. There is much to learn from: extreme rural and urban terrain; cultural, religious and linguistic differences; an international political climate that condemned British actions but was sympathetic to the insurgency and its external sponsors. Finally, the issue of organizational learning is examined to identify the extent the British military was prepared to identify and address its experiences and incorporate lessons into its institutions. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Counter-insurgency (COIN). Intelligence. Interrogation. British colonial history. Aden. South Arabia. Egypt. Yemen. 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 19b. PHONE NUMBER (include area code) (U) (U) (U) (U) 195 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii MASTER OF MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE THESIS APPROVAL PAGE Name of Candidate: MAJ Stephen Andrew Campbell Thesis Title: An Exit Strategy not a Winning Strategy? Intelligence Lessons from the British ‘Emergency’ in South Arabia, 1963-67 Approved by: , Thesis Committee Chair Nicholas A. Murray, DPhil. , Member Donald S. Stephenson, Ph.D. , Member Joseph R. Fischer, Ph.D. Accepted this 14th day of December 2012 by: , Director, Graduate Degree Programs Robert F. Baumann, Ph.D. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student author and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College or any other governmental agency. (References to this study should include the foregoing statement.) iii ABSTRACT AN EXIT STRATEGY NOT A WINNING STRATEGY? INTELLIGENCE LESSONS FROM THE BRITISH ‘EMERGENCY’ IN SOUTH ARABIA, 1963-67, by MAJ Stephen Andrew Campbell, 195 pages. The British Army is often praised for a particular skill in small wars or counter- insurgencies (COIN). Some attribute this to the special challenge of maintaining order across a global empire with a relatively small force; others cite the intellectual inheritance of great British military theorists and an inherent flexibility present within a small army that is used to adapting to overcome adversity. However, this view is challenged by recent scholars who suggest the UK record in COIN is not one of universal success. This thesis examines a less prominent British campaign–the war in South Arabia or “Aden Emergency.” It was fought against a complex local enemy supported by a strong regional power in the Middle East with a public timeline for British withdrawal. This thesis focuses on the performance of the intelligence organization in South Arabia. There is much to learn from: extreme rural and urban terrain; cultural, religious and linguistic differences; an international political climate that condemned British actions but was sympathetic to the insurgency and its external sponsors. Finally, the issue of organizational learning is examined to identify the extent the British military was prepared to identify and address its experiences and incorporate lessons into its institutions. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It has been a pleasure and a privilege to have the opportunity to write this thesis. The Department of Military History collectively offered robust feedback and supportive comments. In particular the contribution from my committee–Doctors Murray, Stephenson and Fischer–was unfailingly helpful as the pressures of the academic year accunulated. My fellow officers on the Art of War programme were a great source of strength–Majors Harris, Lembke and Ruscetta. Often their comments came in so thick and fast that capturing them was itself a testing experience! In addition to the above Art of War team, I was very fortunate to have support from the author Mr Jonathan Walker, Brigadier (Retired) Andrew Myrtle (late Kings Own Scottish Borderers, British Army), Brigadier (Retired) David Venn (late Intelligence Corps, British Army), Superintendent (Retired) Jim Herlihy (Special Branch) and Mr Tony Ingledow (Foreign and Commonwealth Office). In addition, the staff at the Intelligence Corps Archive in Chicksands UK provided great support–Joyce Hutton and Alan Edwards. Mr Robert Evans Head of the Army Historical Branch in the Ministry of Defence Corporate Memory Department kindly provided assistance in person and via email throughout the research and writing period. Sincere thanks to all; nonetheless, all errors and omissions are my own. Finally, I must pay tribute to all the British Servicemen, and Policemen, who fought in this conflict. Even after forty-five years their dedication and professionalism in the face of unrelenting adversity is humbling. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page MASTER OF MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE THESIS APPROVAL PAGE ............ iii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................... vi ILLUSTRATIONS ............................................................................................................ ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION - THE BRITISH ‘EMERGENCY’ IN SOUTH ARABIA ..............................................................................................................................1 Intelligence Performance in South Arabia–Thesis Structure and Summary .................. 4 South Arabia–The Unwanted Entry on the British Army’s COIN Curriculum Vitae? ........................................................................................................... 7 Aden–The Only Arab Colony in the British Empire .................................................... 11 Explaining the “Federation of South Arabia”–Aden Colony and the Protectorates ..... 14 Setting the Context: The UK’s Political Challenge in South Arabia ............................ 19 External Support: Royalist Yemen, Republican Yemen and Egypt ............................. 20 Aden’s Colonial Heritage: A Society with no Sense of Itself? ..................................... 22 Britain and the Western Aden Protectorate and Eastern Aden Protectorate ................. 25 External Support: The Critical Role of Egypt .............................................................. 30 The Drive for Federation .............................................................................................. 31 Understanding the War in South Arabia–Cold War Context ....................................... 33 The Forgotten Cold War Context–the UK as Defender of the Middle East ................. 34 Defining Success–the British Political Objective in South Arabia ............................... 36 “Know the War you are Fighting”–the Nature of the Insurgency ................................ 37 Consequences of British Defeat in South Arabia–Poverty, Terrorism, and Instability ............................................................................................................... 41 The South Arabia Campaign–A Case Study for US-UK COIN in the Islamic World? .............................................................................................................. 44 Intelligence in COIN–The Value of a Historical Perspective ....................................... 46 Britain: A Declining Imperial Power Doomed to Failure? ........................................... 47 CHAPTER 2 COMMAND, OPERATIONS AND INTELLIGENCE ..............................53 “Military Aid to the Civil Power” (MACP) and “Internal Security” (IS) .................... 56 “Framing the Problem”–The Military Benefits of a Civilian-Lead Approach ............. 59 British Civilian Leadership Culture in South Arabia .................................................... 61 British Political and Military Structures in South Arabia ............................................. 65 The Federation of South Arabia–Governing the Ungovernable? ................................. 68 vi Britain’s own Bureaucratic Tribes–The Foreign Office and the Colonial Office ........ 69 The Colonial Office in South Arabia: the Mount Everest of State Building Tasks ...... 71 Aden Special Branch: The Canary in a Cage ............................................................... 73 The British Military in South Arabia–Combatants and Residents ............................... 75 Training the Local Security Forces–Our Exit Strategy ................................................ 81 Boots on the Ground ..................................................................................................... 81 Aden Special Branch and the Aden Intelligence Centre ............................................... 83 The Intelligence Frontline–British Army “G2” ............................................................ 85 The Professionals–The Intelligence Corps ................................................................... 86 The Perennial Intelligence Dilemma–The Use of Scarce Resources ........................... 87 The Intelligence Cycle–Giving Spin a Good Name ..................................................... 90 Operations and Intelligence–Healthy Symbiosis or Mutual Infection? ........................ 95 Intelligence Organisation in South Arabia–What Was There? ..................................... 96 Military Intelligence–Assessing Performance ............................................................ 101 CHAPTER 3 INTELLIGENCE PERFORMANCE–CENTRALISED CONTROL .......102 What is “Centralised Control”? .................................................................................. 103 Why Have “Centralised Control”? ............................................................................. 106 “Centralised Control” and the British Response to the NLF in South Arabia ............ 110 The Prendergast Report: Analysis and Recommendations ......................................... 113 Dissenting Views: The Political Advisor .................................................................... 121 Different Emphasis: The Military Professionals ........................................................ 125 Summary–Centralised Control and Intelligence in South Arabia .............................. 127 Centralised Control of Intelligence–Wider Implications for Intelligence .................. 128 Centralised Control of Intelligence–Wider Implications Beyond Intelligence .......... 129 CHAPTER 4 INTELLIGENCE–EXPLOITATION AND INTERROGATION ............131 “Systematic Exploitation,” Exploitation and Interrogation–Some Definitions .......... 133 Exploitation: People, Material and Documents .......................................................... 134 Interrogation: The Double-Edged Sword? .................................................................. 136 Interrogation in COIN ................................................................................................. 137 Exploitation in South Arabia–Putting Humpty Dumpty Back Together Again ......... 139 Rebuilding Interrogation in South Arabia–The Int Corps Approach ......................... 140 Exploitation: The Benefits of Peer Review ................................................................ 151 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 156 CHAPTER 5: COIN IN SOUTH ARABIA–INTELLIGENCE LESSONS RELEARNED? ................................................................................................................158 The True Legacy of South Arabia: Outright Denial or a Lack of Introspection? ....... 162 Intelligence Performance in South Arabia–Strategic Factors ..................................... 164 Lessons from the Int Cycle in the South Arabia Campaign ....................................... 169 Direction ................................................................................................................. 169 Collection ................................................................................................................ 170 vii Processing ............................................................................................................... 174 Dissemination ......................................................................................................... 176 Institutional Learning .................................................................................................. 177 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 179 GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS .......................................................................................180 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................182 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ....................................................................................186 viii ILLUSTRATIONS Page Figure 1. The Arabian Peninsula in 1965: Republican Yemen and the Federation of South Arabia ..............................................................................15 Figure 2. UK concept of strategic defence of Middle East in the event of a further global war, 1953............................................................................35 Figure 3. British and Federation of South Arabia political, military and intelligence organisations in South Arabia, 1963-7.............................................................67 Figure 4. The British Army’s “Intelligence Cycle” model .............................................92 Figure 5. UK and Federation intelligence organisations in South Arabia, 1963-67 .......97 Figure 6. An example of a Combined Joint Task Force with supporting J2 elements .....................................................................................................104 Figure 7. Prendergast’s assessment of intelligence organisation in South Arabia and proposal for change, November, 1965 ....................................................117 Figure 8. British soldier in front of NLF vs FLOSY graffiti, Aden 1967 .....................173 ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION - THE BRITISH ‘EMERGENCY’ IN SOUTH ARABIA The British Army has excelled in small-unit, anti-guerrilla warfare as they did in other aspects of counterinsurgency. History had given them an army that was relatively small and decentralized and, therefore, ideally suited to such warfare.1 ― Thomas R. Mockaitis Look at us, we’re on the street in our soft caps and everyone loves us.2 ― David Kilcullen By the end of the twentieth century, the British Army had a conspicuous reputation for skill in counter-insurgency operations (COIN). The record was by no means uniformly successful but the prevailing trend of achieving conditions that were broadly consistent with British political goals was impressive. For all the undoubted pain incurred fighting insurgents in Ireland, Cyprus, Kenya, Malaya and Oman it was generally recognised that in a type of conflict in which it is particularly difficult to achieve decisive political outcomes through the use of force the British Army had a 1LTC Robert M. Cassidy, “The British Army and Counterinsurgency: The Salience of Military Culture,” Military Review (May-June 2005), http://www.au.af.mil/ au/awc/awcgate/milreview/cassidy3.pdf (accessed 29 November 2012). 2Insurgency Research Group, “CNA Panel on British COIN,” 31 July 2008, http://insurgencyresearchgroup.wordpress.com/author/betz451/ (accessed 29 November 2012). David Kilcullen on the perceived complacency of the British military during the early stages of the Iraq campaign; his comments were made as part of a wider discussion of attitudes within the British military towards COIN and their perception of superiority to US forces in 2005. Both Kilcullen and Marston argued that the British military performance in Iraq and Afghanistan had proven inferior to US forces with the former not living up to its reputation for excellence in small wars. 1
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