Electoral Politics in Indian States: Lok Sabha Elections in 2004 and Beyond PDF
Preview Electoral Politics in Indian States: Lok Sabha Elections in 2004 and Beyond
ELECTORAL POLITICS IN INDIANS TATES Lok SabhaE lectionsi n 2004 and Beyond edited by Sandeep Shastri,K .C.S uri, & YogendraY adav - . . OXFORD \JNIVER.S l:TY PRESS Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY OXFORD \JNIVBllSITY PllBSS Jai YMCA Library Building. Singh Road, New Delhi 110 001 Oxford University PR:$$is a department of the Universityo f Oxford. It funhers the University'so bjective of cxcdlence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar cs Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With officesi n Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Cuch Republic France Grcccc Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered rrademark of Oxford University Pr= in the UK and in certain other countries Published in India by Oxford University PR:$$N, ew Delhi © Centre fur the Srudy of Developing Societies 2009 The moral rights of the author have been asscned Database right Oxford University Pr= (maker) First published 2009 All rights re3erved.N o pan of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrievals ystem, without permission in writing from Oxford University Pr=. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford UniversityP r=, at the address above You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer ISBN-13: 978-0-19-806329-2 ISBN-I 0: 0-19-806329-6 Typeset in Adobe Garamond Pro 10.8/13 by Sai Graphic Design, New Delhi 110 055 Printed in India at ParangacO ffset, New Delhi 110 020 Published by Oxford University Pr= YMCA Library Building, Jai Singh Road, New Delhi I 10 001 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY Contents · List of Tabk s v•u• Preface xv l. The Elusive Mandate of 2004:A n Overview l YOGENDRYAA DAV . 2. Ten Theses on State Pollt ics in India 46 YOGENDRYAA DAAVN DS uHASP ALSHIKAR 3. Andhra Pradesh: Fall of the CEO in the Arena of Democracy 64 K.C. SURI 4. Karnataka: Simultaneous Polls, Different Results 79 SANDEESPH ASTRAI NDH A.RISHR AMAswAMY 5. Kerala: A Verdict against Non-performance and Factionalism 92 G. GoPA KuMAR 6. Maharashtra: Towards a New Party System 108 SUHASP ALSHIKAARN DN mN B1RMAL 7. Goa: A Fractured Verdict 130 MARIAD o CEu RODRIGUEASN DS ou.No DA S1LvA 8. Gujarat: Signs of Anti-incumbency 148 M. PATEL PRIYAVADAN 9. Rajasthan: BJP Knocks Out Congress in a Bipolar Contest 176 SANJAlY..o DHA 10. Delhi Parliamentary Elections: Benefiting from Two- 202 layered Incumbency PusHKARRAJ 11. Haryana: A Verdict beyond Anti-incumbency 214 0H.'<NANJA}OI SHIA NDP RAVEENR AI Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY vi Contents 12. Punjab: Dissonance between Governance and 231 Electoral Processes AsHlITOSH KUMAR 13. Jammu and Kashmir: Electoral Politics in a 250 Separatist Context REKHA V. CHoWDHARY AND NAGENDRA RAo 14. Uttarakhand: The Story behind Marginal Differences 270 SANJAY KuMAR AND ANNAPURNA NAUTIYAL 15. Uttar Pradesh: From Exclusionary to Inclusive Politics 285 AK VERMA 16. Jharkhand: Reversaolf Past Trends 310 SANJAY KuMAR AND HARisHWAR DAYAL 17. West Bengal: Permanent Incumbency and Political Stability 326 DwAIPAYAN BHAITACHARYYA 18. Sikkim: The Pro-incumbency Factor 346 BANASMITA BORA 19. Arunachal Pradesh: Politics without Ideology 359 NANI BATH 20. Mizoram: Renewed Mandate for the State Government 368 RK SATAPATHY 21. Manipur: Insurgents and Electoral Politics 380 s. MANGI SINGH 22. Revisiting 'Third Electoral System': 393 Mapping Electoral Trends in India, 200~9 YOGENDRA YADAV AND SUHAS PALSHIKAR Appmaix National Election Study 2004 : A Methodological Note 430 LoKNmTEAM Notes on Contributors 452 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY Tables I.I: Scats, Votes, and Multiplier by Major Panics and Alliances, 1999-2004 4 l .2(a): Satisfaction with NDA Government by Alliance Voted For, 2004 9 l .2(b): Opinion on Giving Another Chance to Vajpaycc-led NOA Government by Alliance Voted For, 2004 9 1.3: Net Effect of Change in Alliances, 1999-2004 16 1.4: Vote Share in 2004 and Swing from 1999 for Major Alliances by States 18 1.5: Three 'Battlegrounds' in 2004: Total Scats, Turnout, Scats Won, Gained/Lost, Votes Secured, and Swing by Major Fronts by Three Categories of States 20 1.6: Five Types of Contests in 2004: Total Scats, Turnout, Scats Won, Gained/Lost, Votes Secured, and Swing by Major Fronts by Three Categories of States 23 1.7 (a): All-India Vote for Major Political Formations by Locality, 2004 25 l .7(b): All-India Swing for Major Political Formations by Locality, 2004 25 l .7(c): Results for Lok Sabha Elections 2004 by Rural-Urban Type of Constituency 26 l .S(a): All-India Vote for Major Political Formations by Gender, 2004 27 l .S(b): All-India Vote Change for Different Panics by Gender, 1999-2004 27 l .9(a): All-India Vote for Major Political Formations by Caste/ Community, 2004 28 I .9(b): All-India Vote Change for Different Parties by Caste/ Community, 1999-2004 29 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY viii Tables 1.9(c): Social Profile of Loyal Voters for Major Political Formations, 1999-2004 30 1.1O (a): All-India Vote for Major Political Formations by Class, 2004 37 l.lO(b): All-India Vote Change for Different Panics by Class, 1999-2004 37 1.1O (c): All-India Vote Change for Different Parties by Class, 1999-2004 38 3.1: Results of the 1999 and 2004 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha Elections in Andhra Pradesh: A Comparison 71 3.2(a): Region-wise Results for 1999 and 2004 Vidhan Sabha Elections: A Comparison 72 3.2(b): Region-wise Results for 1999 and 2004 Lok Sabha Elections: A Comparison 73 3.3: Social Background and Party Preference: 2004 Lok Sabha Elections 75 3.4: Perceptions of Voters on the Performance of the TOP Government 76 4.1: Party-wise Performance in Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections, 1990--2004 81 4.2: Rating of the State Government on Different Parameters 84 4.3: Rating of the State Government 84 4.4: Suppon for Parties among Different Caste Groups 88 5.1: Electoral Outcome and Performance of Three Fronts in Kerala, 2004 95 5.2: Groupism in the Congress and UDF Prospects 98 5.3: Performance of the A.K. Antony Government 99 5.4: Rating of Performance of A.K. Antony Government during Previous Three Years 100 5.5: Actors Responsible for Marad Violence 100 5.6: Marad Violence a Setback to Secularism in Kerala 100 5.7: Caste/Religion-wise Voting 101 5.8: Class-wise Voting Pattern 102 5.9: Performance of the NOA Government 103 5 .10: Decline in Agricultural Productivity due to Globalization 103 5.11: UDF Policy of Privatizing Exploitation of Natural Resources 103 5.12: Traditional Party Supponer 105 6.1: Lok Sabha Results from Maharashtra, 2004 110 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY Tables ix 6.2: Maharashtra Region-wise Analysis for Lok Sabha, 2004 112 6.3: Flow of Scats in Maharashtra, 1999 to 2004 (Lok Sabha) 113 6.4: Assembly Results from Maharashtra, 2004 115 6.5: Region-wise Result for Assembly, 2004 116 6.6: Flow of Scats: Assembly Elections, 1999 and 2004 117 6.7: Vote Movement from April to Oaobcr 2004 119 6.8: Assessment of the State Government 120 6.9: More Women Vote for the Congress 120 6.10: The Rural-Urban Divide 120 6.11 : Class Division and Voting Pattern 121 6.12: Caste/Community and Vote (LS and l.A) 121 6.13: Vote by Education 121 6.14: Af,e Group and Voting Pattern 122 7.1: While Voting what Mattered Most to Voters 137 7.2: Opinion about the Performance of the NOA Government 137 7 .3: Constituency-wise Comparison between the Congress and BJP 137 7.4(a): People's Assessment of the State Government (BJP) on Important Issues 138 7.4(b): People's Assessment of the State Government (BJP) on Important Issues 138 7.5: Goa Lok Sabha Elections 2004 140 7.6: Goa Voting Patterns along Religious Lines 140 7.7: Comparison between 1999 and 2004 Parliamentary Elections, Mormugao Parliamentary Constituency 143 8 .1 : Whether Participated in Various Election Campaign- related Activities and Processes 156 8.2: Voting by Area in 2004 Lok Sabha Polls in Gujarat 157 8.3: Considering Overall Situation, Responses on Feeling 'Safe' or 'Not Safe' by Social Groups 157 8.4: The Verdict of Lok Sabha Polls 2004 159 8.5: Party Preferences by Social Groups 160 8.6: Voting Preferences by Class 161 8.7: Various Af,e Groups and Their Voting Preferences 162 8.8: Level of Education and Voting Preferences 163 8.9: Voting Pattern by Arca/Location 164 8.10: Party Voted and Status of Engagement in Religious Activities of the Respondents and Their Families in the Past Ten Years 165 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY Tables X 8.11: Social Group-wise Responseso n Status of Respondent and his Family's Engagement in ReligiousA ctivities in the Past Ten Yc ars 166 8.12: Relationship between the Frequency of Visits to Temples, Mosques, etc., and the Political Party Voted in 2004 Lok Sabha Polls 167 8.13: Arca-wiseR esponseso n Expected Condition in Next Few Years 169 8.14: Status ofNarendra Modi's Image by Party Voted in 2004 Lok Sabha Polls 170 8.15: Performance of the BJP Government during Past Five Years (1999-2004) in Gujarat 171 9.1: Dispersion of Major Castes/ReligiousG roups by Region 178 9.2: Summary Overview of Lok Sabha Election Results in Rajasthan, 1952-2004 180 9.3: Shifting Suppon of Dalit and Adivasi Communities from l 99~2004 Lok Sabha Elections 181 9.4: Comparative India and State Data on Self-perception of Financial Conditions 190 9.5: Comparative India and State Perception about Basic Issues 192 9.6: Comparative India and State Perception about Congress and BJP 192 9.7: Who Voted Whom in Rajasthan-Caste-/Community- wise, 2004 Lok Sabha Elections 194 9.8: Social Suppon Base of Political Panics 195 9.9: Who Voted Whom in Rajasthan-Locality-, Income-, and Education-wise 196 9.10: Performance of the State Government 198 10.1: Population Growth in Delhi, 1971-2001 202 10.2: Elections since 1985 204 10.3: Social Factors and Party Preferences 209 10.4: People's Perceptions as to which Party Better Deals with Their Problems 211 10.5: Satisfaction Levelo f People with Delhi Government 212 10.6: Impact of Economic Policies on People 212 10.7: Impact on Employment Opponunities 212 11.1: Summary of Election Verdict 215 11.2: Congress Made Biggest Gains amongst Floating Voters 218 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY Tables xi 11.3: Overwhelming Majority Satisfiedw ith the Performance of the NDA Government at the Centre 219 11.4: Opinion Divided on Performance oflNLD Government in Haryana 220 11.5: Opinion on Dcvdopment Issues 222 11.6: Fear Factor 224 11.7 : Caste-wiseV oting Pattern 226 11.8: Perception about State Government 227 11.9: Multiple Linear Regression 228 12.1: Results of the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections in Punjab 232 12.2: Summary of Lok Sabha Elections in Punjab, 1967-99 236 12.3: Social Profile of Lok Sabha Members from Punjab, 2004 237 12.4: Social Background and Party Preferences,N ES 2004 238 13.1: Voter Turnout in 2004 Parliamentary Elections: Region-wise 253 13.2: Voter Turnout in 2004, 1999, and 1998 Parliamentary Elections: Constituency-wise 253 13.3: AssemblyS egments Recording Lesst han 10 per cent Voter Turnout in 2004 Parliamentary Elections 254 13.4: Overall Performance of Political Parties in 2004 Parliamentary Elections 255 13.5: Comparative Performance of NC and PDP in the Kashmir Region 256 13.6: Performance of Political Parties in the Jammu Region 259 13.7: Performance of the Political Parties in the Ladalc.h Region: 2004 Parliamentary Elections 261 13.8: Opinion in the State that in the 2002 AssemblyE lections 'People's Trust in the Election Processh as Increased' 263 13.9: Opinion about the Levelo f Malpractices in 2004 Parliamentary Elections Compared to Last Few Elections 263 13.10: Opinion about Ongoing Peace Process Conducted by the Central Government 264 13.11: Comparative Opinion on the Question 'Should the Agitation of Kashmir be Suppressedo r Resolved through Negotiation' 265 13.12: Comparative Opinion on the Question 'War is the On\y Solution to the Indo-Pakistan Problem' 265 13.13: Comparative Opinion on the Question 'Country Should Increase Spending on the Army even if It IncreasesB urden on Ordinary People' 265 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY Tables xii 13.14: Opinion on the Question 'In Kashmir There Should be Peace with Honour ' 266 14.1: Congress and BJP Evenly Matched in terms of Support Base 277 14.2: Traditional BJP Supporters were More Committed for the Party: 2004 Lok Sabha Elections 279 14.3: Positive Appraisal of the Work of State Government 280 14.4: High Levelo f Satisfaction with the Central Government 281 14.5: BJP Led among All the Upper Caste Voters 282 14.6: BJP got Greater Support among Women Voters 282 14.7: Higher the Level of Education, Higher was the Support for the BJP 283 15.1: Lok Sabha Elections 2004 in Uttar Pradesh 286 15.2: UP Assembly Election Results, 1991-2007 290 15.3: Shift in Caste Support to Panics between 1999 and 2004 295 15.4: Shift in Voters' Support to Parties between 1999 and 2004 296 15.5: Class and Party Support, 2004 297 15.6: Shift in Upper Caste Voters in UP 298 15.7: Shift in OBC Voters in UP 298 15.8: Shift in Dalit Voters in UP 298 15.9: Shift in Muslim Voters in UP 298 15.10: Shift in Young Voters in UP 298 15.11: Shift in Male Voters in UP 299 15.12: Shift in Female Voters in UP 299 15.13: Shift in Illiterate Voters in UP 299 15.14: Shift in Educated Voters in UP 299 15.15: Shift in Rural Voters in UP 299 15.16: Shift in Urban Voters in UP 300 15.17: Shift in Vc ry Poor Voters in UP 300 15.18: Shift in Middle Class Voters in UP 300 15.19: Shift in Rich Class Voters in UP 300 15.20: Region-wise Results of Lok Sabha Elections, 1999 and 2004 303 16.1: Performance of Political Panics in Jharkhand: Lok Sabha Elections, 1991-2004 316 16.2: Scats Won and Votes Polled: Lok Sabha Elections 2004 317 16.3: Congress and AlliesL ed among All Social Groups, except Upper Castes 319 16.4: Congress .AllianceM ore Popular among Young, Poor, and Urban Voters 322 Go ogle Original from Digitized by IND IANA UNIVERSITY
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