Elections, Electoral Systems and Volatile Voters

244 Pages·2008·1.567 MB·English

by  Adriano Pappalardo, Gianfranco Baldini

Elections, Electoral Systems
and Volatile Voters
Gianfranco Baldini and Adriano Pappalardo
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pagei
Elections, Electoral Systems and Volatile Voters
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pageii
AlsobyGianfrancoBaldini
LAFRANCIADISARKOZY(co-editorwithM.Lazar)
QUALEEUROPA?L’UNIONEEUROPEAOLTRELACRISI(editor)
SISTEMIELETTORALIEPARTITINELLEDEMOCRAZIECONTEMPORANEE
(co-authorwithA.Pappalardo)
CITTA’ALVOTO(co-authorwithG.Legnante)
LASCONFITTAINATTESA(co-authorwithP.CorbettaandS.Vassallo)
AlsobyAdrianoPappalardo
PARTITIEGOVERNIDICOALIZIONEINEUROPA
ILGOVERNODELSALARIONELLEDEMOCRAZIEINDUSTRIALI
ISINDACATIPREFASCISTI:UnaRicostruzioneCritica
DEMOCRAZIEEDECISIONI,4thedition(co-authorwithL.Mattina)
SISTEMIELETTORALIEPARTITINELLEDEMOCRAZIECONTEMPORANEE
(co-authorwithG.Baldini)
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pageiii
Elections, Electoral Systems
and Volatile Voters
Gianfranco Baldini
AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience
UniversityofSalerno,Italy
and
Adriano Pappalardo
ProfessorofPoliticalScience
UniversityofSalerno,Italy
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pageiv
©GianfrancoBaldiniandAdrianoPappalardo2009
Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis
publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission.
Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted
savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe
Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence
permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency,
SaffronHouse,6-10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS.
Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication
maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages.
Theauthorshaveassertedtheirrightstobeidentifiedastheauthors
ofthisworkinaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
Firstpublished2009by
PALGRAVEMACMILLAN
PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited,
registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke,
HampshireRG216XS.
PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC,
175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010.
PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies
andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld.
Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates,
theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries.
ISBN-13:978 0 230 57448 9 hardback
ISBN-10:0 230 57448 3 hardback
Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully
managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing
processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe
countryoforigin.
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Baldini,Gianfranco.
Elections,electoralsystemsandvolatilevoters/Gianfranco
BaldiniandAdrianoPappalardo.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferences.
ISBN978–0–230–57448–9(alk.paper)
1. Elections. 2. Comparativegovernment. I.Pappalardo,Adriano,
1948– II.Title.
JF1001.B342008
324.6—dc22
2008030084
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09
PrintedandboundinGreatBritainby
CPIAntonyRowe,ChippenhamandEastbourne
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pagev
Contents
Acknowledgements ix
ListofFigures x
ListofTables xi
PartI 1
1 WhatDemocraticElectionsAre,andWhatTheyAreNot 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Conceptualissues 4
1.3 Participationandcompetitioninpoorcountries 7
1.4 Systemicstructuring 9
1.5 Volatilitytrendsinconsolidateddemocracies 11
2 ElectoralSystemsinContemporaryAdvanced
Democracies:BasicPrinciplesandTheirMechanics 16
2.1 Introduction 16
2.2 Electoralsystemsandrepresentation 17
2.3 Thehistoricaloriginsofelectoralsystems 19
2.4 Dimensionsofanalysis 23
2.5 Formulae 26
2.6 Ballotstructure 27
2.7 Assemblysize,districtmagnitudeandlevelsof
seatallocation 29
2.8 Electoralthresholds 32
2.9 Disproportionality,numberofpartiesandvolatility 33
2.10 Settingtherulesofthegame 35
3 MajoritarianSystems 38
3.1 Introduction 38
3.2 Thepluralitysystem:themajoritarianprinciplein
itssimplestversion 39
3.3 Themothercountryofplurality:theUnitedKingdom 41
3.4 SMPinNorthAmerica 45
3.5 Majoritysystems 49
3.6 Thetwo-roundsysteminFrance 49
v
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pagevi
vi Contents
3.7 Thealternativevote:theAustralianexperience 53
3.8 Acomparativeapproachtomajoritariansystems 55
4 ProportionalSystems 60
4.1 Introduction 60
4.2 Proportionalelectoralformulae 61
4.3 PRnolongeruntouchable?Challengesandchanges
inAustria,BelgiumandtheNetherlands 64
4.4 Proportionalonlyinname?TheSpanishelectoral
system 67
4.5 Italy:backandforthfromPR,andthe
majoritybonus 69
4.6 Non-listPR:thesingletransferablevoteinIreland 72
4.7 EPelectionsandthevarietiesofproportionality 73
4.8 Conclusion 77
5 Mixed-memberSystems 80
5.1 Introduction 80
5.2 Classificationandanalysisofagrowing‘family’ 81
5.3 TheGermanMMPsystem:twoformulae
andproportionaleffects 83
5.4 Whenreformsreallymatter:NewZealandand
thefarewelltotheWestminstermodel 86
5.5 MMMsystems:Japan... 87
5.6 ...andItaly(1994–2001) 89
5.7 Conclusion:‘bestofbothworlds’or‘worldsapart’? 92
PartII 95
6 ElectoralRules:HowEffectiveandWhy 97
6.1 Theproblemofendogeneity 97
6.2 Institutionalistsvs.sociologists 100
6.3 Duvergerandhiscritics 102
6.4 Conditionsforstrategicvoting 104
6.5 Mechanicaleffects 108
6.6 IndefenceofSartori’sprojectionargument 111
7 TheFrench2RS:SuitedforComparativeResearch? 116
7.1 Amanipulatedthreshold 116
7.2 FromDuverger,toSartori,toCox 118
7.3 TheFifthRepublicpartyformat 123
7.4 Anti-systemparties 127
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pagevii
Contents vii
8 RedesigningCasesandIndicators 130
8.1 Electoralsystemsbetweenstabilityandchange 130
8.2 Comparableandnon-comparablecases 136
8.3 Volatilityasanindependentvariable 137
8.4 Dependentvariables:theeffectivenumberof
partiesanditsalternative 141
9 FromTheorytoEvidence:UpdatingandRetesting
Lijphart 150
9.1 Somepreliminaryfindings 150
9.2 Thestrengthofthepsychologicaleffect 154
9.3 Decliningdatafitandtheimpactofvolatility 158
10 SystemicConsequences,PastandFuture 169
10.1 Thethreshold:aconstrainedcontinuity 169
10.2 Accountability,responsiveness,representativeness:
theclassicdebate 171
10.3 Volatility,electoralengineeringandpolitical
entrepreneurship 177
Notes 183
Bibliography 205
Index 218
This page intentionally left blank
9780230_574489_01_prexiv.tex 23/10/2008 13:43 Pageix
Acknowledgements
Parts of this book were previously published in Italian and in English.
We wish to thank Editori Laterza who published our Sistemi Elettorali
e Partiti nelle Democrazie Contemporanee in 2004, and Sage Publications
whopublishedthearticle‘ElectoralSystems,PartySystems:Lijphartand
Beyond’inPartyPolitics(SagePublications,2007).GianfrancoBaldiniis
theauthorofChapters2,3,4and5,AdrianoPappalardoofChapters1,
6,7,8,9and10.
ix